HANDWRITTEN NOTE ASSESSING ABSTRACT OF DISSERTATION.

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: STARGATE
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP96-00787R000500250025-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: November 4, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 22, 2002
• Sequence Number: 25
• Publication Date: June 12, 1978
• Content Type: HW

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Leningrad SISTEMOTEKHNICHESKOYE ISSLEDOVANIYE NADEZHNOSTI PRINYATIYA RESHENIY
in Russian 1972 pp 1-20
[Author's abstract of a dissertation in pursuit of the candidate of techni
sciences degree by A. M. Shtern, specialty 05.252--Computer Technology, RSFSR
Ministry of Higher and Secondary Special Education, Northwestern Correspondence
Polytechnical Institute]
[Text] The reliability of decision making is acquiring special significance
in modern production and in transportation and special systems. This problem
has not only a certain amount of scientific significance but also considerable
economic significance, since unreliable, ineffective decisions could lead to
significant material losses and irreversible damage to the system.
Decision making is the most complex and least studied operation in the over-
all process of information processing. Decision making reliability is a
function of many factors, and analysis of their influence upon decision
making reliability is the topic of many researchers.
Because these problems are rather new, most research in this area has been
basically-devoted to particular problems associated with a particular tech-
nical system or particular characteristics of the operator. The task of
developing and revealing decision making reliability criteria which would
be universal, independent of the concrete type of information processing
system, arises quite naturally. The effectiveness of the criteria revealed
is dependent on the degree to which they permit control and prediction of
the reliability of a systems engineering complex.
The present work, which analyzes decision making reliability from a systems
engineering standpoint, deals with a number of tasks having the objective
of producing practical recommendations on particular problems in reliable
organization and planning of man-machine systems.
Basic Concepts
The decision making process can be described by a trajectory in a configura-
tional search space. The search space is given by the set of states {N}
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and the relationships existing among them. The decision structure can vary
significantly depending on the nature of the relationships associating dif-
ferent points in the search space.
This work shows that in the case where the search space is a successive
linear system, decision making is determined, and it assumes one of the
following forms--maze, formal, convergence, closed, and interpolational.
When the probability element is introduced to the structure of relationships
among states in the search space, decision making acquires a probabilistic
structure and assumes the following forms--search, heuristic, divergence,
open, and extrapolational.
These types of decision making can either be used separately, or they can be
formed into complex combinations and sequences. In this case the determined
and probabilistic types of decision making are always the polar types, and
they are described by various mathematical tools. In the first case we use
logical functions and determined networks, while in the second case we use
statistical probability models and the theory of random processes. The
determined approach presupposes that in all situations the system implements
a certain given logical function, and all of its decisions are error-free.
In the probabilistic approach we reject presence of an entirely error-free
decision beforehand, substituting it by the probabilities of reaching accep-
table decisions.
Special difficulties arise in formalizing the problem when the decision making
process simultaneously possesses the qualities of both determined and proba-
bilistic processes. In this case the search space may be determined in rela-
tion to a universal assessment and statistical in relation to a local one.
This situation is the one most often encountered; however, formal methods
for assessing the reliability of combined types of decision making are poorly
developed. This is why we are forced to limit ourselves to examining just
the polar type in practical situations. This dissertation demonstrates that
use of a quasiclassical approach opens up a number of new possibilities for
analyzing determined-probabilistic types of decision making. In this approach,
the reliability of decisions can be assessed by the appropriate quasiclassical
probability distributions.
It becomes much simpler to assess the reliability of decision making if we
introduce the distance measure into the search space under analysis. This
measure need not be defined as geometric length; in some measurable way it
must relate points in the configurational space together. The units of
distance measurement in the models` examined here could be steps, bits, and
so on. This work does not assess distances in concrete units; instead, rela-
tive distances are examined. This permits comparison of experimental results
obtained in different informational environments.
The reliability of decision making depends on, in addition to the structure
of the search space, the internal information characteristics of the system
making decisions. The number of these information characteristics is
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sufficiently large, and in the general case it is not as yet possible to
find their optimum values. For the moment we are forced to limit ourselves
to examining one or a few characteristics and revealing how the changes
they experience. influence the system's reliability.' Two important factors
defining the reliability of decision making are analyzed in this work:
1) The memory's information capacity Q, .
2) the level of prediction processes P.
Let the configurational search space be given with the appropriate metrics.
The decision making process consists of a transition from some initial
state to some final state (a goal). Let the generalized distance between
the initial state and the goal be JR1.
We need to determine the range of variables Q and P producing a maximum
in the reliability functions
max [F+ ` tnax P(!RI, Q)
maxP ` masF(IRI,P)
where F is a function of the reliability of decision making. The limits are:
Q 44 2 (RI P ` JRI
This problem was solved by means of phenomenological experiments and digital
modeling of the decision making process with a BESM-6 digital computer. In
parallel, the need arose for solving a number of background problems, the
content of which will be presented below.
? The Phenomenological Solution
The phenomenological analysis had an applied nature. Its tasks included
determining a quantitative criterion of decision making reliability and
developing the appropriate procedure permitting prediction of decision
making reliability.
The configurational search space consisted of associated environments of
varying complexity in this case. The decision process involved transforma-
tion of a certain initial situation into some final situation according to
particular rules:
Xix2X$x,X,X2
X1 xlcp;j X, Xi
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This transformation could be made with the assistance of a fixed number of
substitutions, for example:
X2 X3:XS - XX X4 X10
X'X4xs-*' XEX:Xs
Inasmuch as the possibility for making a direct transition from the initial
to the final situation was absent, the problem was solved in stages, in a
prescribed number of steps.
The decision process was assumed to be reliable when the final situation was
reached with a minimum number of steps and in minimum time, and it was assumed
to be unreliable in the opposite case.
The distance IRI between the initial and final situations was measured in
units of information capacity in the short-term memory Q, with IRI being
given in the interval
0