INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS RESEARCH OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT PROCESSING AND ANALYSIS TECHNOLOGY GROUP INFORMATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH DIVISION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP95-00972R000100020004-5
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 14, 2012
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: March 1, 1982
• Content Type: REPORT

Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/12/14: CIA-RDP95-00972R000100020004-5
INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS RESEARCH
OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
PROCESSING AND ANALYSIS TECHNOLOGY GROUP
INFORMATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH DIVISION
MARCH 1982
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BRIEFING OBJECTIVES
? TO DESCRIBE THE TECHNOLOGY OF INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS
? TO EXPLAIN A NEW ORD PROGRAM FOR FY84
? TO RECEIVE FEEDBACK ON PROGRAM DIRECTION
? TO DISCUSS OPPORTUNITIES FOR JOINT PARTICIPATION
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COMMON KNOWLEDGE
TYPICAL CIRCUMSTANCES
? PERSONNEL TURNOVER
? ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES
? HIGH DATA VOLUMES
? UNCERTAINTY/INCOMPLETENESS
? COMPLEX MODELS
? RIGID SYSTEMS
RELATED PROBLEMS
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
? Loss OF EXPERTISE
? COSTLY RETRAINING
? INFORMATION OVERLOAD
? INFORMATION UNDERLOAD
? LOWER PRODUCTIVITY
? HIGHER MAINTENANCE COSTS
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INFORMAL DEFINITION
AN INTELLIGENT SYSTEM IS A COMPUTERIZED SYSTEM WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO EMULATE THE BEHAVIOR OF A HUMAN EXPERT IN
SOLVING DIFFICULT PROBLEMS IN A SINGLE, WELL-DEFINED
SUBJECT AREA, INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS COMBINE THE POWER OF
THE COMPUTER TO CONSIDER MANY DETAILED ALTERNATIVES WITH
THE WISDOM OF THE EXPERT TO DECIDE WHICH ALTERNATIVES ARE
MOST LIKELY TO SUCCEED,
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BENEFITS SOUGHT FROM INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS
GENERAL GOALS
? INSTITUTIONALIZE EXPERTISE
? REDUCE RETRAINING COSTS
? REDUCE USER CONFUSION
? IMPROVE PERSONAL PRODUCTIVITY
? SOLVE PREVIOUSLY UNTRACTABLE
PROBLEMS
? CONTAIN SYSTEM LIFE CYCLE
COSTS
SPECIFIC TECHNIQUES
? EXPERT SYSTEMS
? SELF-TUTORIAL SYSTEMS
? SYSTEM-ENHANCED QUERIES
? INTELLIGENT ASSISTANTS
? HEURISTIC SEARCH
? FLEXIBLE KNOWLEDGE
REPRESENTATION
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ASPECTS OF AN INTELLIGENT SYSTEM
FUNCTIONS
? CORRECTLY INTERPRET PARTIALLY FORMED QUERIES
? MAKE INTELLIGENT INFERENCES WITH INCOMPLETE DATA
? ELIMINATE EXTRANEOUS MATERIAL FROM RESPONSES
? EXPLAIN ITS BEHAVIOR TO SYSTEM USERS
? BE READILY MODIFIED TO ACCOMMODATE NEW KNOWLEDGE
CHARACTERISTICS
? SEPARATE KNOWLEDGE BASE FROM PROGRAM CODE
? APPLY LOGICAL RULES OF INFERENCE TO GIVEN FACTS
? ASSOCIATE CONFIDENCE FACTORS WITH DATA AND INFERENCES
? REPRESENT RULES IN EASILY UNDERSTOOD FORM
MANIPULATE SYMBOLS INSTEAD OF CRUNCHING NUMBERS
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KBS CONCEPTUAL DESIGN
KNOWLEDGE-BASED SYSTEM
DATA
EXPERT
INTERFACE
COGNITIVE
ENGINE
KNOWLEDGE
BASE
QUERY/RESPONSE
PLANNER &
LOCAL MEMORY
INTERPRETER
CONTROLLER
STORE
DATA
KNOWLEDGE
RULE
CONTROLLER
PROCESSOR
SETS
KNOWLEDGE
KNOWLEDGE
DATA
ACQUISITION
ORGANIZER
FILES
EXPLANATION
FACILITY
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SELECTED EXAMPLES OF SUCCESSFUL INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS
? DENDRAL - GENERATES PLAUSIBLE STRUCTURES OF ORGANIC
MOLECULES FROM MASS SPECTRAL DATA
? MYCIN - DIAGNOSES BACTERIAL INFECTIONS IN THE
BLOOD AND RECOMMENDS ANTIBIOTIC THERAPY
? PROSPECTOR - EVALUATES GEOLOGIC SITE SUITABILITY
FOR MINERAL EXPLORATION
? MACSYMA - SOLVES PROBLEMS IN INTEGRAL CALCULUS
AND OTHER DOMAINS OF HIGHER MATHEMATICS
? RI - DETERMINES HARDWARE CONFIGURATIONS FOR
SALES ORDERS OF VAX COMPUTERS
? ACRONYM - LOCATES SPECIFIC OBJECTS IN VISUAL SCENES
? RITA - ACTS AS AN INTELLIGENT ASSISTANT TO
FACILITATE ACCESS TO COMPUTER NETWORKS
- STANFORD
- STANFORD
- SRI
- MIT
- DEC/CMU
- STANFORD
- RAND
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GOAL-ORIENTED REASONING
GOAL: WHO IS THE GRANDMOTHER OF JENNIFER?
DATA: ? MICHELLE IS THE MOTHER OF JENNIFER
? CRAIG IS THE FATHER OF JENNIFER
? JOSIE IS THE MOTHER OF MICHELLE
? MILDRED IS THE MOTHER OF CRAIG
RULES: ? IF: X IS THE MOTHER OF Y AND
Y IS THE MOTHER OF Z
THEN: X IS THE GRANDMOTHER OF Z
? IF: X IS THE MOTHER OF Y AND
Y IS THE FATHER OF Z
THEN: X IS THE GRANDMOTHER OF Z
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EXAMPLE RULES
RI (VAX CONFIGURATION)
MYCIN (MEDICAL DIAGNOSIS)
IF: (1) THE CURRENT CONTEXT IS ASSIGNING
DEVICES TO UNIBUS MODULES, AND
(2) THERE IS AN UNASSIGNED DUAL-PORT
DISK DRIVE, AND
(3) THE TYPE OF CONTROLLER IT REQUIRES
IS KNOWN, AND
(4) THERE ARE TWO SUCH CONTROLLERS,
NEITHER OF WHICH HAS ANY DEVICES
ASSIGNED TO IT, AND
(5) THE NUMBER OF DEVICES THAT THESE
CONTROLLERS CAN SUPPORT IS KNOWN
THEN: (1) ASSIGN THE DISK DRIVE TO EACH OF
THE CONTROLLERS, AND
(2) NOTE THAT THE TWO CONTROLLERS HAVE
BEEN ASSOCIATED AND THAT EACH
SUPPORTS ONE DEVICE.
IF: (1) THE SITE OF THE CULTURE IS
BLOOD, AND
(2) THE IDENTITY OF THE ORGANISM
IS NOT KNOWN WITH CERTAINTY,
AND
(3) THE STAIN OF THE ORGANISM IS
GRAMNEG, AND
(4) THE MORPHOLOGY OF THE ORGANISM
IS ROD, AND
(5) THE PATIENT HAS BEEN SERIOUSLY
BURNED
THEN: THERE IS WEAKLY SUGGESTIVE EVIDENCE
(O.4) THAT THE IDENTITY OF THE
ORGANISM IS PSEUDOMONAS.
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POTENTIAL AGENCY APPLICATION AREAS
? LARGE-SCALE SIMULATION AND MODELING AIDS
? INTELLIGENT ASSISTANCE FOR ROUTINE PROCESSING
? FOCUSING SEARCHES THROUGH MASSIVE DATA FILES
? DIAGNOSIS OF SYSTEM FAILURES
? AUTOMATED AIDS FOR IMAGE UNDERSTANDING
? IMPROVED TECHNIQUES FOR UNDERSTANDING NATURAL LANGUAGE
? ENHANCED INTERFACES TO DATA BASE MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS
? COMPUTER-AIDED INSTRUCTION
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SIGNIFICANT ISSUES IN KBS DEVELOPMENT
? KNOWLEDGE REPRESENTATION
? KNOWLEDGE ACQUISITION
? APPLICATION SELECTION
? KNOWLEDGE ENGINEERING
? IMPLEMENTATION LANGUAGE
? COMPUTER RESOURCES
? SYSTEM INTEGRATION
- RULES, FRAMES, PREDICATE- CALCULUS, SEMANTIC
NETWORKS, PROGRAMS
- ELICITATION, REPRESENTATION, MULTI-SOURCE,
EXPERT AVAILABILITY
- IDENTIFICATION, SELECTION CRITERIA, REASONABLE
EXPECTATIONS, SUCCESS MEASUREMENT
- PERSONNEL, TRAINING, TOOLS, TECHNIQUES,
ORGANIZATIONAL ACCEPTANCE
- LISP DIALECTS, PROLOG, ROSIE, OPS-5, KAS, EMYCIN,
TEIRESIAS, AGE
- DEC (10/20/11/VAX), LISP MACHINES (SYMBOLICS,
DOLPHIN, LMI), LARGE ADDRESS SPACE
- EXISTING DBMS, MODELS, VM, SAFE
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V V 1 1 1 L i - I L - 1 1 11 I L
PREVIOUS/ONGOING ORD RESEARCH EFFORTS
? INTELLIGENCE APPLICATIONS STUDIES (AMRD)
? IPANA (ISRD)
? HYDROLOGY MODEL INTERFACE (AMRD)
? IMAGE UNDERSTANDING (IERD)
? INTELLIGENCE COLLECTION (ACS)
? OPEN SOURCE EXPLOITATION (ISRD)
CONFIDENTIAL
- BBN (1976), SRI (1980)
- LOGICON (1981)
- SRI (1982)
- HUGHES (1982)
- ULTRASYSTEMS (C) (1982)
- AI&DS (1982)
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PROPOSED/POTENTIAL ORD RESEARCH EFFORTS
? ENHANCED ACCESS TO DATA BASES (ISRD)
? WHEAT MODEL DEVELOPMENT (AMRD)
? KNOWLEDGE ELICITATION TOOLS (ISRD)
? HARDWARE TROUBLESHOOTING (ISRD)
? INTELLIGENCE PRODUCTION LAB (AMRD)
? ORD TRAVEL PROCESSING (ISRD)
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%)Llll\L 1
ORD INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS FUNDING PROFILE
2000 -
1500 -
DOLLARS
IN
THOUSANDS 1000 -
500 -
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89
FISCAL YEAR
SECRET
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ORD OBJECTIVES FOR INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS RESEARCH PROGRAM
? TO ASSIST INITIAL ORD APPLICATIONS OF KBS TECHNOLOGY
? TO DEMONSTRATE THE VALUE OF WIDER AGENCY APPLICATION
? TO ACQUIRE A SELECTION OF KNOWLEDGE ENGINEERING TOOLS
? TO DEVELOP A CADRE OF KBS EXPERTISE WITHIN THE AGENCY
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MANAGEMENT ISSUES TO CONSIDER
BECAUSE:
? SIGNIFICANT APPLICATIONS
REQUIRE SUBSTANTIAL EFFORT
? CHARACTERISTICS OF SUCCESSFUL
APPLICATIONS ARE VAGUE
? KNOWLEDGE ENGINEERING IS A
DIFFICULT ART
? KNOWLEDGE ENGINEERS ARE SCARCE
? KBS TECHNOLOGY IS CHANGING
? FEW KBS EXIST OUTSIDE A NARROW
HARDWARE/SOFTWARE ENVIRONMENT
WE NEED TO:
? PLAN ADEQUATE RESOURCES
? EXPERIMENT WITH POTENTIAL
APPLICATIONS
? ACQUIRE A SELECTION OF KNOWLEDGE
ENGINEERING TOOLS
? DEVELOP IN-HOUSE EXPERTISE
? DEVELOP TECHNOLOGY "BUY-IN"
STRATEGY
? DEVELOP IMPLEMENTATION/CONVERSION
PLAN
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ORD INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS RESEARCH STRATEGY
STUDY THE TECHNOLOGY
? OBTAIN FORMAL AND INFORMAL KNOWLEDGE ENGINEERING TRAINING
? TRACK KBS DEVELOPMENTS IN OTHER AGENCIES/COMPANIES
? PURSUE MULTIPLE KBS TECHNOLOGIES CONCURRENTLY
DEVELOP AGENCY APPLICATIONS
? INVOLVE MULTIPLE COMPONENTS OF ORD PLUS ODP, ASG, AND OTHERS
? EMPHASIZE PRACTICAL APPLICATION OF TECHNIQUES
? SELECT INITIAL APPLICATIONS CAREFULLY
ACQUIRE APPROPRIATE TOOLS
? DERIVE GENERAL TOOLS/TECHNIQUES FROM EACH APPLICATION
? BUILD UPON EXISTING TOOLS/SYSTEMS
? COLLECT/CONVERT TOOLS TO AGENCY COMPUTER ENVIRONMENT
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PROPOSED ACTION STEPS
? HELP ORD ASSESS THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THIS TECHNOLOGY FOR THE AGENCY
? ASSIST ORD IN FORMULATING AN-APPROPRIATE FY84 RESEARCH PROGRAM
? SUPPORT ORD BUDGET ACTION IN THIS AREA
? IDENTIFY A FOCAL POINT IN ODP FOR THIS TECHNOLOGY
? DETERMINE WHEN INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS SUPPORT SHOULD SHIFT FROM ORD TO
OD P
? CONSIDER STAFFING AND TRAINING REQUIREMENTS TO BUILD IN-HOUSE
EXPERTISE
? DETERMINE THE APPROPRIATE LEVEL OF ODP PARTICIPATION IN INTELLIGENT
SYSTEM PROJECTS
? SUPPORT THE ACQUISITION AND USE OF INTELLIGENT SYSTEM TOOLS, SUCH AS
INTERLISP AND PROLOG ON VM
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