SPEECHES - WESTMINSTER COLLEGE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP95-00535R000300010021-0
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 44
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 9, 2013
• Sequence Number: 21
• Publication Date: October 27, 1983
• Content Type: MISC

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Introduction
?Good evening. I am very pleased to be here with you
today. I have found that dialogues with members of the
business and academic communities and other individuals
interested in foreign affairs can be very beneficial. Despite
what popular fiction portrays, intelligence does not operate in
its own world. CIA regularly receives valuable help from
patriotic individuals in private industry, research and
academic institutions who volunteer their knowledge on foreign
political, military, or economic matters.
?My predecessors in thirs job developed an apparatus
which uses photography, electronics, acoustics, seismic
sensors, and other technical marvels to gather facts on a daily
basis from all parts of the world. CIA has thousands of
scholars, experts in every discipline of technology and social
science, who task our collectors to get the critical
information they need to analyze events and improve our
national leaders' understanding of what's going on in the world.
?Let me discuss with you today some of the key
challenges we face in intelligence and briefly bring you
up-to-date on some of the changes underway in the Intelligence
Community as we rebuild our resources from the somewhat
depleted condition that developed in the '70s.
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I. Changes in the International System-and the Impact on
Intelligence
?The July issue of NEWSWEEK featured an article titled
"Even in Peacetime 40 Wars are Going On." The article was
meant to shock and startle readers, majority of whom are
probably unaware of multitude of violent disputes around
world. But there was no surprise in the corridors of CIA where
analysts must follow developments all around globe and assess
their implications for U.S.
?War, of course, is only the most extreme expression of
international tension. We must follow dozens of international
issues at CIA beyond the comparatively basic job of monitoring
and predicting wars.
?The international system has undergone dramatic changes
since 1947 when CIA was established. In post World War II
period, only the U.S. stood at pinnacle of world power. The
Soviet Union was our only serious rival.
?We have since witnessed the rise of many independent
states as well as rise of significant nonstate actors, such as
terrorist movements and economic cartels. Our economy is now
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much more dependent and sensitive to international financial
trends or to the economic health of other countries.
?Our national security depends on coming to grips with
the complexities of this age. The result: the Intelligence
Community must monitor more and more issues beyond the
traditional confines of strict military and political analysis
to include what are called transnational issues -- terrorism,
nuclear proliferation, technology transfer, and insurgency.
?Since these problems cannot be analyzed and understood
by looking at merely one country or just one dimension of
problem, we have created new analytical centers at CIA such as
Technology Transfer Assessment Center where economic, military,
and political analysts are in daily contact, each providing
unique perspectives on the issue.
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II. Soviet Union: The Leadership Succession
?Andropov assumed power one year ago and already his
uncertain health has raised questions about the length of his
tenure. Illness prevented him from attending the recent
anniversary ceremonies in Moscow.
?Before this latest confinement, Andropov had been able
to increase his personal authority and political clout by
becoming head of the party, state, and the defense council. At
the most recent party plenum this past June, Andropov was also
able to promote some of his allies and strengthen his political
position.
?What is not yet clear, whether for health or political
reasons, is if Andropov will be able to translate his enhanced
'authority into effective policy change. His initiatives to
date an attack on corruption and on lax attitudes towards
work have had some limited effects but do not address the
deep-seated inequities and inefficiencies in the Soviet
economic system.
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V
?The top leadership ranks have been so reduced by
sickness, death, and earlier political battles that the Kremlin
is probably less prepared for a new succession than when
Brezhnev died. There is no one leader in the reduced
Politburo's Secretariat who has experience comparable to that
of Khrushchev, Brezhnev, or even Andropov.
?A new leader, if necessary, could emerge within days
but he would lack the power, authority, and prestige of
Andropov. He would encounter more difficulty in consolidating
his position.
?Likely candidates are: Gorbachev and Romanov, possibly
Chernenko, or Dmitriy Ustinov.
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III. Soviet Union: The Worldwide Threat
, ?Despite chronic economic problems, Andropov will
continue pouring enormous resources into defense. Since about
1976, the Soviets have devoted some 13 to 14% of their GNP to
the military -- about twice that of the U.S.
?The most potentially devastating military threat comes
from the Soviet nuclear missiles which are aimed at us. The
second comes from the land, air and sea forces of the Warsaw
Pact nations which continue to gain on NATO forces in quantity
and quality. The third is the growing ability of the Soviets
to project power over long distances, an ability vividly
demonstrated in Angola and Ethiopia.
?The Soviet military has received some 2,000 ICBM and
SLBM missiles, 5,000 tactical combat and interceptor aircraft,
over 60 SSBN.and attack submarines, and some 30 major surface
combatants since 1975. We also know of some 150 major weapon
programs now under development.
?The fourth threat is that of surreptitious expansion,
what I call creeping imperialism. The-Soviet Union is not
committed to world stability nor are they a status quo power.
This is not to say or paint a vulgar caricature of a Russian
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blueprint for world conquest. But the Kremlin will use maximum
prudence with maximum opportunism to increase their power and
influence.
?They have developed an array of tactics -- political,
diplomatic, subversion, terrorism, and insurgency -- and they
have compiled a remarkable record. We have seen Soviet allies
gain power or influence in Cuba, Vietnam, Angola, South Yemen,
Ethiopia, Libya, and more recently in Grenada and Nicaragua.
?The Soviet's geographic expansion of power in a mere
decade is unprecedented. One of their most effective
techniques is their use of proxies -- Cubans in Latin America,
East Germans and Libyans in Africa, and Vietnamese in Asia.
?Grenada provides a vivid illustration of how the
Soviets practice creeping imperialism by proxy. Reports
indicate that, in addition to the Cubans on the island, there
were Soviets, North Koreans, Libyans, East Germans, and
Bulgarians working together to establish a military base in the
Eastern Caribbean.
?The Libyans and the Cubans are especially active. The
Libyans, apparently in pursuit of their own interests, have
helped promote Soviet foreign policy goals through the invasion
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of Chad, assistance to rebels in the Philippines, Morocco and
Central America, not to mention coups, plots and assassination
attempts against pro-Western world leaders. Libya, Cuba, South
Yemen,. East Germany, and Bulgaria operate training camps for
terrorists and insurgents.
?The Soviets recognize that in many Third World
? countries power rests with the military. They have focused on
either winning over a country's officer corps or helping to
overthrow the military leadership and install more pro-Soviet
officers.
?Having for a decade denounced the West as "Merchants of
Death," the Soviets have become the world's leading supplier of
arms. Over recent years, their arms shipments to the Third
World have been four times greater than their economic
assistance. Third World countries then become dependent on the
Soviets for thousands of advisors, for spare parts, and
continued logistical support.
?Today we see the Soviets at work in our own backyard.
If present trends continue, at risk are the Panama Canal,
through which passes nearly half of all our foreign trade, as
well as the Caribbean sea lanes we would use to resupply Europe
in a conflict.
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?Soviet assistance to Cuba now totals more than t8
million a day. With such aid, much of it military aid, Cuba's
immediate goals are to consolidate control of the Sandinista
Government in Nicaragua and then with assistance from Managua,
overthrow the elected government of El Salvador and Guatemala.
Later would come Honduras and Costa Rica.
?There are about 8,000 Cubans in Nicaragua today,
including some 200 military advisers. The Soviets have some 50
military and 100 economic advisers. Soviet personnel are
assisting the Sandinistan security services, and even the
Nicaraguan general staff. Also active in Managua are East
Germans, Libyans, Vietnamese, and PLO personnel.
?Whenever a country falls under Soviet or communist
dominance, one result is a flood of refugees. The U.S. already
is straining with the burden of thousands of illegal
immigrants from Mexico. A Cubanization of Central America
would quickly create new refugees by the millions. Could our
economy, our political and social system, absorb this increase?
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IV. Technology Transfer V/
?Modern warfare and modern weapons systems depend upon
advanced technology: microelectronics, communications,
computers, advanced metal-making equipment and so on.
?The Soviet Union's economy is inefficient,
overcentralized, and suffers from a lack of innovation. So who
provides the R&D, the technological genius, behind the massive
Soviet military build-up? We do.
?A few startling examples:
-- The Soviets had the plans to the C-5A before it
flew.
The Soviet trucks used in Afghanistan came from a
plant outfitted with $1.5 billion in modern
American and European machinery.
The precise gyros and bearings in SS-18 ICBM are
from U.S. designs.
The radar in Soviet AWACs is virtually ours.
? Starting with set of plans for the U.S.
? Sidewinder Air-to-Air missile, the Soviets built
a copy, saving 7 years in R&D time.
The list goes on and on.
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?The Soviet appetite for U.S. and Western European
technology is voracious. About 30% of their technology
requirements are met by legal, open means such as subscribing
to AVIATION WEEK or by attending international conferences.
But some 70% to 80% of their technology requirements are
satisfied by illegal means, relying on their intelligence
? services.
?Former KGB officers have told us that the clandestine
acquisition of Western technology has the highest priority in
KGB and its military counterpart the GRU.
?This is a national-level program approved at highest
party and government levels. There are several thousand
intelligence officers, under various covers ranging from
diplomats and journalists to businessmen, dedicated solely to
this effort.
?The Soviets hide behind dummy trading companies or they
sometimes engage bona fide European firms as middlemen in order
to obscure the technology's ultimate destination. There are
more than 30 Communist country owned-U.S. chartered firms in
the U.S.; there are 300 in Western Europe.
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?Since early 1970s, the Soviet and East European
intelligence services have emphasized the collection of
manufacturing-related technology, in addition to weapon R&D
designs. Our famous Silicon Valley in California is a favorite
target for acquiring semiconductors and computer manufacturing
designs.
?The Intelligence Community is redoubling its collection
and assessment efforts. At CIA, we have established a new
analytical center, the Technology Transfer Assessment Center,
to improve our analysis. We then pass our intelligence to
Justice Department, FBI, Commerce, and other government
components.
?In policy arena, the government is also taking such
. measures as tightening export control and restrictions on
activities of Soviet and East European nationals in U.S. We
simply cannot afford to continue to fight ourselves.
?Other nations of world are beginning to focus on this
problem. In last six or seven months, over 100 Soviets have
been expelled from countries because of their illegal attempts
to steal technology.
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)
V. World Debt Problems
?The major problem facing world economy today is the
inability of many less developed and East European countries to
repay their debts.
?The amount of these countries' debt is enormous. Their
combined medium and long-term debt grew from $55 billion in
1970 to $625 billion last year.
?Debt in and of itself is not bad but, of course, it
becomes a big problem when it cannot be repaid. These
countries' debt service payments accelerated rapidly in late
-1970s. Last year payments reached $140 billion.
?At same time, the ability of many of these countries to
earn the foreign exchange needed to repay their loans
deteriorated as prices for industrial raw materials and
agricultural products fell rapidly beginning in 1980. In 1979,
oil prices and interest rates also sharply increased, and the
global recession decreased the demand for Third World goods.
In other words, they got less for what they had to sell and had
to pay more for what they needed, such as loans and oil.
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?In the top-10 list of countries with serious debt
problems are our southern neighbors: Brazil and Mexico lead
the list, which also includes Argentina, Venezuela, and Chile.
The total debt ,of Brazil is $85 billion; Mexico is $83 billion;
Argentina is $37 billion; Venezuela is $34 billion; and Chile
is $18 billion. *
*The crux of problem for the U.S. is that the costs to
the LDCs of paying off these debts means declining standards of
living in these countries. This can easily lead to political
and social instability and the growth of radical movements.
?There have already been riots in Rio and Sao Paulo over
economic conditions. The pace of illegal Mexican emigration to
the U.S. has picked up since its financial problems deepened
last year.
?The inability of these countries to honor repayment
agreements could also have a negative effect on economic
recovery in industrial world. LDCs have emerged as important
customers for industrial nations' products, but financial
strains have forced them to curb imports, especially of U.S.
goods. American commercial banks have major stake in debtor
countries, especially in Latin America. By end of 1982, U.S.
banks had lent almost $100 billion to Latin America.
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V
?U.S. government, in collaboration with other
governments and banks, is dealing with debt readjustments on a
case-by-case basis involving five elements -- debtors' internal
economic adjustments, new commercial bank financing, government
loans, IMF loans, and the pace of the global economic recovery.
?For U.S. intelligence, the task is to closely monitor
these countries' economies as well as the political and social
repercussions of their financial difficulties in order to
assess any adverse impact on our national security.
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VI. Narcotics
?As many as 41 million people in the United States each
year spend some $80 billion on illegal drugs: heroin, cocaine,
marijuana, and hashish.
?The CIA plays an important role in the national effort
to interdict the flow of narcotics into this country. We
provide the crop estimates of the production of illicit drugs
around the world as well as the analysis of how such drugs are
smuggled from country to country.
?The results of such research are sobering. Drugs
entering U.S. markets are produced primarily in Latin America,
Southwest Asia, and Southeast Asia.
?Latin America supplies all of the cocaine, over 90% of
the marijuana, and about one-third of the heroin sold on U.S.
streets.
?The so-called Golden Crescent of Afghanistan, Pakistan,
and Iran is the world's leading opium-producing region and
supplies over 50% of the heroin used here.
lc
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?The Golden Triangle of Burma, Thailand, and Laos
supplies about 10% of U.S. heroin.
?Although marijuana use has declined somewhat among high
school youths, there has been a slow, steady increase in the
use of cocaine. Colombia is the major source for cocaine
imported into the U.S. New marketing sources have also been
established in Brazil's Amazon valley. More and more cocaine
is being smuggled into the U.S. in commercial aircraft.
?Drug traffickers need overseas havens to launder and
stash their huge profits from smuggling. Countries with strict
bank secrecy laws are favored as are areas which have easy,
loose requirements for incorporation. Loose incorporation laws
enable the drug smuggler to form a front corporation to handle
money arrangements.
?Although Switzerland is known for its bank secrecy
laws, the Swiss have signed a mutual assistance treaty with the
U.S. which allows U.S. investigative agencies access to certain
bank records if there is probable cause. Presently drug
traffickers use banks in Panama, the Cayman Islands, the
Bahamas and Hong Kong. The proximity of Panama, the Caymans,
and the Bahamas to the U.S. enables the traffickers to smuggle
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large amounts of cash via short flights on commercial or
chartered aircraft.
?Despite attempts by some countries to reactivate crops
and despite more widespread attention given to stopping
international trafficking, the lure of large profits ensures a
steady flow. In many drug-producing countries money earned by
growers and traffickers far exceeds returns from alternative
crops. For example: the average income for a Colombia farmer
is some $60 to $70 per month; the same farmer growing marijuana
could probably earn more than $1,300 monthly.
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or-
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VII. Terrorism
?The bombing of our Marine headquarters in Lebanon is
but latest tragic example of how terrorist groups increasingly
threaten U.S. lives and property overseas.
?Our task is to track and, if possible, infiltrate these
groups. Infiltration is not easy. Groups now using more
sophisticated security procedures.
*A handful of countries -- Syria, Libya, Cuba, the USSR,.
East Germany, Iran, and South Yemen -- provide arms, money, and
training to terrorist cells. For some of these countries,
.terrorism is becoming an accepted instrument of state policy.
?U.S. cit.zens are the primary targets of radical
groups. About 200 Americans have been killed since 1968; about
half were victims of indiscriminate attacks. But more and more
terrorists are specifically singling out Americans for
assassination.
?In part, it is extreme envy for our standard of living;
in part, it is because our freedoms and beliefs are anathema to
those who support totalitarianism or anarchism.
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?U.S. diplomats are most frequent victims but American
businessmen are the next likeliest target. U.S. firms have
paid an estimated $125 million in ransom over past 10 years.
?Most common type attack is a bombing. We have recorded
nearly 4,500 such attacks worldwide since we began keeping
records about 15 years ago. The greatest number of terrorist
attacks now occur in Lebanon, West Germany, Spain, and France.
?Because of our concern in intelligence for this growing
threat to U.S. lives and property, we have established a new
analytical center in CIA specifically devoted to tracking
terrorist groups.
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( .) )
VIII. Rebuilding Our Intelligence Service
?The decade of seventies was tough for intelligence.
The Intelligence Community underwent a 40% cut in funds and a
50% cut in personnel.
*Congress began our restoration with FY '80 budget.
Congressional committees were so concerned about state of
intelligence they gave us even more than the President
requested.
?We have had budget increases, depending on which agency
you talk about, of some 15% to 20% a year for past three years;
such increases are now tapering off.
?What have we been doing with these increases? We have
been hiring more people and shoring up badly-needed or
neglected support systems. Some of you may have seen our
advertisements which is an unusual recruitment method for us
that has been very successful.
?Intelligence Community's manpower is still about half
of what it was in early seventies but that's O.K. Automation
has helped and with end of Vietnam, our mission has been
redirected.
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?We have a new spirit of cooperation among various
agencies that make up Intelligence Community, due in part to a
renewed emphasis on making sure all hypotheses and alternative
conclusions are heard.
?NFIB is functioning as a Board of Estimates. Each
Chief of the various intelligence agencies is encouraged --
indeed tasked -- to make sure the conclusions and views of his
organization are fairly and adequately represented.
?Our analysts are also inserting a range of
possibilities into all of their analysis, hopefully better
preparing policymakers to cope with a variety of outcomes to a
problem or crisis.
?We are reaching out more to universities and think
'tanks, searching out new perspectives. We recognize
intelligence organizations have no monopoly on truth. We are
holding more joint conferences and encouraging our analysts to
strengthen their school ties and to take additional courses.
?Congressional oversight is the best protection we
have. The U.S. citizen is well-served by this process. The
two Intelligence Committees of Congress are informed and are
with us for takeoff on all our covert action programs.
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(
?Our relationship with Senate Select Committee on
Intelligence is excellent; but last year, unfortunately, House
Oversight Committee began to divide along partisan lines. This
causes us great concern because partisan oversight is no
oversight at all.
?Covert action is, of course, a politically sensitive
issue. Covert action is difficult because it's alien to our
open society. But if we aren't occasionally willing to use it
-- responsibly and with discretion -- then we are going to be
in trouble. There are occasions when the President needs an
option between open diplomacy or military force.
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HIILICMCCI1
-Ekriav?
WASHINGTON. D.C. 20505
This Page Available for
Immediate Release
PUBLIC AFFAIRS
Phone: [phone]
Text of Attached Speech
Embargoed Until After 4:00 p.m.,
Saturday, October 29, 1983
October 27, 1983
DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE WILLIAM CASEY
HONORED AT WESTMINSTER COLLEGE
William J. Casey, Director of Central Intelligence, will
receive an honorary Doctor of Laws Degree and give the 40th
John Findley Green Foundation Lecture on October 29, 1983,. at
3:00 p.m. at Westminster College, Fulton, Missouri.
The 1980 Lecturer, the Honorable Clare Boothe Luce, will
present Mr. Casey for the honorary degree in Westminster's
Champ Auditorium and will cite Mr. Casey as "a man of multiple
talents and diverse interests" who "has contributed
significantly to the welfare of his nation and the free world
in a number of important assignments spanning the past four
decades."
Since 1936, the John Findley Green Foundation Lecture
Series has brought a distinguished roster of world leaders to
Westminster College to deliver lectures, which according to the
deed of trust- are "designed to promote understanding of
economic and social issues of international concern." Sir
Winston Churchill gave his famous "Iron Curtain" speech at
Westminster in 1946. Previous lecturers also have included
former Presidents Harry S Truman and Gerald R. Ford, Vice
President Hubert H. Humphrey, Reinhold Niebuhr, Henry R. Luce
and Edward Heath. Last year Secretary of Defense Caspar
Weinberger spoke.
Mr. Casey's audience is expected to include Westminster's
President J. Harvey Saunders, Dean of the Faculty, Dr. Richard
E. Mattingly, the Board of Trustees, faculty, students, and
parents. Mr. Casey's speech, titled "What We Face," will
detail the Soviet worldwide challenge to U.S. interests and
call for a realistic U.S. counter-strategy, especially in the
Third World.
The text of Mr. Casey's speech is attached to this press
release.
...END OF RELEASE
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Ca)
REMARKS BY WILLIAM J. CASEY
DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
AT
WESTMINSTER COLLEGE
FULTON, MISSOURI
SATURDAY, 29 OCTOBER 1983
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F I NAL
WHAT WE FACE
PRESIDENT SAUNDERS, AMBASSADOR LUCE, HONORED GUESTS,
TEACHERS, PARENTS AND STUDENTS OF WESTMINSTER COLLEGE- I THANK
YOU MY DEAR FRIEND CLARE LUCE FOR THE GENEROSITY OF THAT ELOQUENT
INTRODUCTION- I AM HONORED AND GRATEFUL AT BECOMING AN HONORARY
ALUMNUS OF WESTMINSTER AND THE WARMTH OF YOUR WELCOME AND AT
THE HONOR OF BEING ASKED TO SPEAK HERE AT WESTMINSTER IN THE
GREEN LECTURE SERIES ON WHICH WINSTON CHURCHILL AND THOSE WHO
FOLLOWED HIM HAVE BEEN CONFERRED SUCH DISTINCTION.
I FEEL MORE AT HOME HERE THAN YOU MIGHT IMAGINE.
CAME HERE FROM THE CIA CAMPUS IN VIRGINIA, ACROSS THE POTOMAC
FROM WASHINGTON. CONTRARY TO THE SPY NOVELS AND MOVIES, MOST
OF OUR PEOPLE IN INTELLIGENCE SPEND THEIR TIME SITTING AT COMPUTERS
OR IN LIBRARIES EVALUATING AND ANALYZING INFORMATION. TODAY'S
JAMES BONDS HAVE GRADUATE DEGREES AND ARE MORE CONVERSANT IN
ECONOMICS, SCIENCE, ENGINEERING, DEMOGRAPHY AND HISTORY THAN
WITH GAMBLING CASINOS, FAST CARS, SMOKEY BARS OR RUN-DOWN HOTELS
AROUND THE WORLD. THEY DEVELOP AND USE TECHNICAL MARVELS AND
APPLY THE FINEST SCHOLARSHIP TO GATHER, ANALYZE AND INTERPRET
FACTS AND RELATIONSHIPS FROM EVERY CORNER OF THE EARTH AND BEYOND.
THE MOST DIFFICULT TASK IN INTELLIGENCE IS FORECASTING
DEVELOPMENTS A FEW MONTHS OR YEARS AHEAD. WINSTON CHURCHILL HAD
AN UNCANNY, PERHAPS UNIQUE, CAPACITY TO LOOK INTO THE HEARTS AND
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MINDS OF CIVILIZATION'S ADVERSARIES AND ACCURATELY FORETELL
THEIR INTENTIONS YEARS AND EVEN DECADES AHEAD- HE WAS A PROPHET
ALONE IN THE EARLY 1930s AND, MORE SIGNIFICANTLY, HE WAS STILL
A PROPHET NEARLY ALONE IN HIS VISION OF RUSSIA HERE AT WESTMINSTER
COLLEGE IN 1946.
ON THAT OCCASION, HE DEFINED A CHALLENGE WITH WHICH MY
GENERATION HAS STRUGGLED FOR A THIRD OF A CENTURY AND WHICH
THE GENERATION NOW AT WESTMINSTER MUST ALSO FACE. LISTEN TO
HIS WORDS:
"FROM STETTIN IN THE BALTIC TO TRIESTE IN THE ADRIATIC,
AN IRON CURTAIN HAS DESCENDED ACROSS THE CONTINENT... .THE
COMMUNIST PARTIES WHICH WERE VERY SMALL IN ALL THREE EASTERN
STATES OF EUROPE, HAVE BEEN RAISED TO PRE-EMINENCE AND POWER FAR
BEYOND THEIR NUMBERS AND ARE SEEKING EVERYWHERE TO OBTAIN
TOTALITARIAN CONTROL."
HE WENT ON TO SAY:
"IN A GREAT NUMBER OF COUNTRIES, FAR FROM THE RUSSIAN
FRONTIERS AND THROUGHOUT THE WORLD, COMMUNIST FIFTH COLUMNS ARE
ESTABLISHED AND WORK IN COMPLETE UNITY AND ABSOLUTE OBEDIENCE TO
THE DIRECTIONS THEY RECEIVE FROM THE COMMUNIST CENTRE-"
SPEAKING OF THE AMERICAN ATOMIC BOMB AND THE PERIL THAT
WOULD EXIST IF A COMMUNIST STATE HAD THAT CAPABILITY, HE SAID:
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"THE FEAR OF THEM ALONE MIGHT EASILY HAVE BEEN USED
TO ENFORCE TOTALITARIAN SYSTEMS UPON THE FREE DEMOCRATIC WORLD,
WITH CONSEQUENCES APPALLING TO HUMAN IMAGINATION." '
ALL THIS, LESS THAN A YEAR AFTER WE HAD WON THE LONG
STRUGGLE AGAINST HITLER WITH RUSSIA BY OUR SIDE, WAS NEW AND
STARTLING TO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE- CHURCHILL ALLOWED HIMSELF A
CRY OF ANGUISH THAT AGAIN'HIS WARNING WOULD GO UNHEEDED:
"THE LAST TIME I SAW IT ALL COMING, AND CRIED ALOUD TO
MY OWN FELLOW COUNTRYMEN AND TO THE WORLD BUT. ..NO ONE WOULD
LISTEN AND ONE BY ONE WE WERE ALL SUCKED INTO THE AWFUL WHIRLPOOL."
HOW MUCH MORE ALARMED WOULD CHURCHILL BE IF HE LOOKED AROUND
THE WORLD TODAY AND SAW HOW THE SOVIETS HAVE GROWN IN STRENGTH
AND HOW FAR THEY HAVE EXTENDED THEIR POWER AND INFLUENCE BEYOND
THE IRON CURTAIN HE SO APTLY LABELED- HE WOULD SEE SOVIET POWER:
--IN VIETNAM ALONG CHINA'S SOUTHERN BORDER AND ASTRIDE
THE SEA LANES WHICH BRING JAPAN'S OIL FROM THE PERSIAN GULF;
- IN AFGHANISTAN, 500 MILES CLOSER TO THE WARM WATER
PORTS OF THE INDIAN OCEAN AND TO THE STRAITS OF HORMUZ THROUGH
WHICH COMES THE OIL ESSENTIAL TO WESTERN EUROPE;
- ON THE HORN OF AFRICA OVERLOOKING THE PASSAGEWAY OF
SUEZ WHICH CONNECTS THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA AND THE INDIAN OCEAN;
- IN SOUTHERN AFRICA, RICH IN MINERALS, WHICH THE
INDUSTRIAL NATIONS MUST HAVE:
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--AND IN THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA ON THE VERY
DOORSTEP OF THE UNITED STATES.
AND WHAT WOULD CHURCHILL THINK OF THE CATACLYSMIC EVENTS IN
LEBANON AND GRENADA DURING THE LAST SEVEN DAYS. FOR REASONS
WHICH YOU WILL UNDERSTAND, I AM NOT IN A POSITION TO GO INTO
IN ANY DETAIL BEYOND WHAT YOU HAVE LEARNED FROM THE MEDIA, AND
LIKE ANY GOOD REPORTER I'M PREPARED TO GO TO JAIL TO PROTECT
MY SOURCES- BUT I WILL HAZARD AN ATTEMPT TO RELATE THE EVENTS
TO WHAT CHURCHILL CALLED THE SINEWS OF PEACE WHEN HE SPOKE HERE.
THE DISASTER IN LEBANON WOULD HAVE REMINDED HIM OF THE AWFUL
PRICE THAT CAN BE LEARNED TO MAINTAIN PEACE. THE RESPONSE OF
'BOTH OUR MARINES IN LEBANON AND THE FLOOD OF NEW RECRUITS HERE
WOULD HAVE REMINDED HIM OF THE COURAGE AND SPIRIT HIS COUNTRYMEN
DEMONSTRATED WHEN THEY STOOD ALONE AGAINST THE FORCES OF DARKNESS
IN EUROPE.
HE WOULD HAVE BEEN GRATIFIED TO SEE IN GRENADA A FREE NATION
ACT TO CHECK THE POTENTIAL COMMUNIST AGGRESSION WHICH HE WARNED
AGAINST HERE AS HE HAD FAILED TO GET HIS OWN COUNTRY TO ACT
AGAINST THE FASCISM OF THE THIRTIES. HE WOULD REJOICE THAT FOR
THE FIRST TIME THE WEST HAS RESTORED TO A COLONY OF THE SOVIET
EMPIRE THE FREEDOM WHICH HAD BEEN STOLEN FROM IT.
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TODAY, WE ARE AS A NATION CHALLENGED ON MANY LEVELS. THE
MOST POTENTIALLY DEVASTATING THREAT COMES FROM THE NUCLEAR MISSILES
WHICH ARE AIMED AT US. THE SECOND COMES FROM THE LAND, AIR AND
SEA FORCES OF THE WARSAW PACT NATIONS IN EUROPE WHICH CONTINUE
TO GAIN ON NATO FORCES IN QUANTITY AND QUALITY. THE THIRD IS
THE GROWING ABILITY OF THE SOVIETS TO PROJECT POWER OVER LONG
DISTANCES, AN ABILITY VIVIDLY DEMONSTRATED BY THEIR USE OF
AIR AND SEA TRANSPORT TO LINK UP ADVANCED SOVIET WEAPONS WITH
CUBAN TROOPS THOUSANDS OF MILES FROM THEIR BORDERS- WE SAW
THEM DO THIS FIRST IN ANGOLA AND AGAIN IN ETHIOPIA.
THE FOURTH LEVEL OF THREAT IS SOMETHING WE MIGHT CALL
CREEPING IMPERIALISM. THE KREMLIN USES A VARIETY OF TECHNIQUES
TO EXPLOIT ECONOMIC, RACIAL AND RELIGIOUS DIVISIONS AROUND THE
WORLD AND TO DESTABILIZE AND SUBVERT OTHER COUNTRIES BY FOSTERING
INTERNAL INSURGENCY. THE SOVIET UNION THEN SUPPLIES WEAPONS,
TRAINING AND ADVISORS TO BRING IN RADICAL GOVERNMENTS WHICH WILL
EXTEND SOVIET POWER AND FURTHER SOVIET INTERESTS.
IT IS TO THE STRATEGIC NUCLEAR THREAT AND THAT OF CONVENTIONAL
FORCES IN EUROPE THAT WE DEVOTE MOST OF OUR CONCERN AND COMMIT
MOST OF OUR DEFENSE RESOURCES. YET, THE APPALLING DEVASTATION
WHICH WOULD RESULT FROM THE USE OF THESE WEAPONS IS SUCH THAT
THIS THREAT IS LESS LIKELY TO MATERIALIZE THAN THAT OF AGGRESSIVE
PROTECTION OF POWER AND INTRUSION INTO OTHER COUNTRIES-
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ALL OF THESE THREATS ARE INTERRELATED, AND THE MEASURES
NEEDED TO DEAL WITH THEM ARE CLOSELY INTERCONNECTED. WE MUST
MAINTAIN A STRATEGIC POSTURE THAT CONVINCES THE SOVIETS THAT THE
RISK OF ANY ATTACK ON THE US OR ITS ALLIES FAR OUTWEIGHS ANY
POSSIBLE BENEFITS- BUT MORE THAN THAT IS NECESSARY- THE GROWTH
IN OVERALL SOVIET MILITARY POWER, UNMATCHED BY THE WEST OVER THE
LAST 15 TO 20 YEARS, HAS ENCOURAGED THEM TO TRY INTIMIDATION TO
SPLIT OUR ALLIES AWAY FROk US AND UNDERMINE OUR CREDIBILITY. IF
THE ADVERSE SHIFT IN THE STRATEGIC BALANCE OF RECENT YEARS IS
PERMITTED TO GO FAR ENOUGH, IT WILL BECOME EASIER FOR THE SOVIETS
TO EXPLOIT SOFT SPOTS AROUND THE WORLD. IT WILL SEEM TO HAVE
BECOME LESS RISKY FOR THE SOVIETS TO INVOLVE THEMSELVES IN SMALLER
CONFLICTS ESPECIALLY IN LESS DEVELOPED PARTS OF THE WORLD.
TO FACE THESE THREATS EFFECTIVELY WE HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE
SOVIET UNION NOT AS WE WOULD LIKE IT BUT AS IT IS. WE LIVE ON -
THE SAME PLANET, WE HAVE TO GO ON SHARING IT. WE MUST THEREFORE
STAND READY TO TALK TO THE SOVIET LEADERSHIP. THE CHARACTER OF
MODERN WEAPONS, NOT ONLY NUCLEAR BUT CONVENTIONAL, MAKES THIS
DIALOGUE INDISPENSABLE- BUT WE MUST RESOLVE NOT TO HAND AN
ADVANTAGE TO THE OTHER SIDE, TO DO NOTHING THAT WOULD EITHER
RISK THE CREDIBILITY OF THE WESTERN ALLIANCE OR UNSETTLE THE
MILITARY BALANCE ON WHICH PEACE ITSELF DEPENDS.
WE MUST RECOGNIZE, TOO, THAT THE SOVIETS WILL EXPLOIT ARMS
CONTROL TALKS AND AGREEMENTS TO SLOW DOWN IMPROVEMENTS IN WESTERN
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MILITARY CAPABILITIES WHILE THEY CONTINUE TO BUILD UP AND
MODERNIZE THEIR OWN FORCES. THUS FAR THEY HAVE SUCCEEDED IN
THIS OBJECTIVE. THEY HAVE NEGOTIATED CEILINGS WHICH PERMIT
THEIR CONTINUED MILITARY BUILDUP OR THEY HAVE AVOIDED RESTRICTIONS
ON NEW WEAPONS THEY INTEND TO BUILD. THE SOVIET UNION HAS
BEEN UNWILLING TO FOREGO ANY OF ITS MAJOR MILITARY PROGRAMS IN
ORDER TO INDUCE US TO DROP OUR OWN PROGRAMS.
NEVERTHELESS, WE SHOULD PERSIST IN ARMS NEGOTIATIONS IN
ORDER TO CONTAIN THIS COMPETITION. WE MUST CONTINUE TO HOPE
THAT AT SOME POINT THERE WILL BE A CHANGE IN SOVIET PERCEPTIONS
AND BEHAVIOR.
HERE AT WESTMINSTER, CHURCHILL WONDERED:
"NOBODY KNOWS WHAT SOVIET RUSSIA AND ITS COMMUNIST
INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION INTENDS TO DO IN THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE,
OR WHAT ARE THE LIMITS, IF ANY, TO THEIR EXPANSIVE AND PROSELYTIZING
TENDENCIES."
A MONTH AFTER CHURCHILL MADE HIS SPEECH HERE AT WESTMINSTER
COLLEGE, HIS QUESTION WAS ECHOED IN MOSCOW. THE NEW US AMBASSADOR
TO RUSSIA, GENERAL WALTER BEDELL SMITH, MET WITH STALIN IN THE
KREMLIN TO ASK, "WHAT DOES THE SOVIET UNION WANT AND HOW FAR IS
RUSSIA GOING TO GO?" STALIN ACCUSED THE US OF TRYING TO THWART
RUSSIA AND DECLARED THAT CHURCHILL'S SPEECH HERE AT FULTON WAS
AN UNFRIENDLY ACT. ASKED AGAIN, "HOW FAR IS RUSSIA GOING TO
GO?" STALIN COOLLY REPLIED, "WE'RE NOT GOING MUCH FURTHER."
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WE KNOW TODAY THAT RUSSIA HAS GONE A LOT FURTHER. IT IS
ESSENTIAL THAT WE UNDERSTAND HOW THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED. DURING
THE MID TO LATE 1970s, THE SOVIETS UNFURLED A NEW STRATEGY ON
A NEW FRONT--THE THIRD WORLD. AND THEIR STRATEGY HAS WORKED.
THE. MOST EFFECTIVE TECHNIQUE EMPLOYED IN THIS STRATEGY
HAS BEEN THE USE OF PROXIES. THIS IS NOT EXACTLY NEW IN HISTORY.
THE ROMANS USED MEN FROM CONQUERED COUNTRIES TO FIGHT THEIR
ENEMIES- LATER, SWISS AND GERMAN MERCENARIES WERE AVAILABLE TO
THE HIGHEST BIDDER ALL OVER EUROPE- THE BRITISH ARMY HAD ITS
GHURKAS AND THE FRENCH THEIR FOREIGN LEGION. BUT THE SOVIETS
USE THE CUBANS, EAST GERMANS, LIBYANS AND VIETNAMESE IN A QUITE
DIFFERENT ROLE.
THESE PROXIES ACT IN PEACE AS WELL AS WAR- THEIR ROLE IS
AS. MUCHPOLITICAL AS MILITARY. EAST GERMANS IN AFRICA, CUBANS -
IN LATIN AMERICA, VIETNAMESE IN ASIA HAVE A CERTAIN LEGITIMACY
AND FREEDOM FROM IMPERIALIST TAINT THAT SOVIET TROOPS WOULD NOT
ENJOY- DIFFERENT PROXIES HAVE SPECIALIZED FUNCTIONS- OF THE
MORE THAN 40,000 CUBANS IN AFRICA, 80 PERCENT OF THE SOLDIERS
ARE ON ACTIVE DUTY- VIETNAM, WITH THE FOURTH LARGEST ARMY IN
THE WORLD, KEEPS CHINA AND THAILAND WORRIED AS IT SOLIDIFIES ITS
POSITION IN KAMPUCHEA. MOST OF THE THOUSANDS OF EAST GERMAN
EXPERTS IN AFRICA OR LATIN AMERICA ARE ACTIVE IN ADMINISTRATION,
EDUCATION, INDUSTRY, HEALTH, AND, ABOVE ALL, THE SECURITY FORCES
WHICH PROTECT THE REGIMES FROM THE PEOPLE.
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LIBYA, CUBA, SOUTH YEMEN, EAST GERMANY, AND BULGARIA OPERATE
CAMPS FOR TRAINING TERRORISTS AND INSURGENTS WHO ARE THEN SENT
AROUND THE WORLD. THE LIBYANS HAVE HELPED PROMOTE SOVIET FOREIGN
POLICY GOALS THROUGH THEIR INVASION OF CHAD AND THROUGH THEIR
ASSISTANCE TO REBELS IN THE PHILIPPINES, MOROCCO AND CENTRAL
AMERICA- LET US ALSO NOT FORGET THEIR COUPS, PLOTS AND
ASSASSINATION ATTEMPTS AGAINST THE LEADERS OF PRO-WESTERN COUNTRIES,
NOR THEIR FINANCIAL HELP TO SO-CALLED "LIBERATION" GROUPS AND
TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND AT LEAST TEN
COUNTRIES IN LATIN AMERICA.
GRENADA PROVIDES A VIVID ILLUSTRATION OF HOW THE SOVIETS
PRACTICE CREEPING IMPERIALISM BY PROXY. EARLY REPORTS INDICATE
THAT, IN ADDITION TO THE CUBANS ON THE ISLAND, THERE WERE ON
THE ISLAND SOVIETS, NORTH KOREANS, LIBYANS, EAST GERMANS AND
BULGARIANS WORKING TOGETHER TO ESTABLISH A MILITARY BASE IN
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS SHOULD COME AS NO SURPRISE. IT
IS A MICROCOSM OF NICARAGUA. FOR MORE THAN TWO YEARS MANAGUA
HAS BEEN AN INTERNATIONAL CITY WITH CUBANS, SOVIETS, EAST GERMANS,
VIETNAMESE, NORTH KOREANS, BULGARIANS, LIBYANS AND PLO ELEMENTS
WORKING TOGETHER TO FASTEN A TOTALITARIAN GRIP ON NICARAGUA,
TO MAKE NICARAGUA MILITARILY DOMINANT OVER ITS NEIGHBORS AND TO
PROJECT REVOLUTIONARY VIOLENCE INTO EL SALVADOR, HONDURAS,
COSTA RICA AND GUATEMALA.
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f
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WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ALLENDE GOVERNMENT IN CHILE,
COMMITTED PRO-SOVIET GOVERNMENTS HAVE NEVER COME TO POWER
THROUGH PEACEFUL MEANS BUT ALWAYS THROUGH VIOLENCE, COUPS AND
CIVIL WARS. THE SOVIETS RECOGNIZE THAT IN MOST THIRD WORLD
COUNTRIES POWER RESTS WITH THE MILITARY- THEY HAVE FOCUSED,
THEREFORE, ON EITHER WINNING OVER THE OFFICERS' CORPS OR HELPING
TO OVERTHROW AND REPLACE THEM WITH OTHERS MORE LIKELY TO DO
THEIR BIDDING- HAVING FOR DECADES DENOUNCED THE "MERCHANTS
OF DEATH," THE SOVIETS HAVE BECOME THE WORLD'S LEADING SUPPLIER
OF ARMS- OVER RECENT YEARS, THEIR ARMS SHIPMENTS TO THE THIRD
WORLD HAVE BEEN FOUR TIMES GREATER THAN THEIR ECONOMIC ASSISTANCE.
THIS HAS MADE THIRD WORLD ARMS RECIPIENTS DEPENDENT ON THE SOVIETS
FOR THOUSANDS OF ADVISORS, FOR SPARE PARTS, AND FOR CONTINUED
'LOGISTICAL SUPPORT.
YET THE SOVIET UNION IS CRIPPLED. IT IS CRIPPLED IN HAVING
ONLY A MILITARY DIMENSION. IT HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO DELIVER
ECONOMIC, POLITICAL OR CULTURAL BENEFITS AT HOME OR ABROAD.
WITHOUT EXCEPTION, THE ECONOMIC RECORD OF THE COUNTRIES WHICH
HAVE COME UNDER SOVIET INFLUENCE HAS RANGED FROM POOR TO VERY
POOR- ECONOMIC PROGRESS HAS BEEN FAR GREATER IN THE FREE AREAS
OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST ASIA, IN CENTRAL AMERICA UNTIL DISRUPTION
BY SOVIET AND CUBAN-BACKED INSURGENCY, IN THE IVORY COAST AND
OTHER NON-SOCIALIST COUNTRIES IN AFRICA.
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-]
MILITARY SUPPORT CAN ESTABLISH A RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN A
SUPERPOWER AND A SMALL COUNTRY- BUT IN THE LONG RUN IT IS
ECONOMIC, FINANCIAL, SCIENTIFIC, TECHNICAL AND CULTURAL EXCHANGES
WHICH ATTRACT, DELIVER BENEFITS, AND MAINTAIN CLOSE RELATIONSHIPS
WITH THIRD WORLD COUNTRIES- THE SOVIET UNION CANNOT COMPETE IN
THESE AREAS. THIS FORCES THE SOVIETS TO RELY? ON SUBVERSION AND
DISRUPTION OF STABLE POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC RELATIONSHIPS TO
WEAKEN WESTERN RELATIONSHIPS AND CREATE A CONDITION OF CHAOS IN
WHICH THEIR SURROGATES AND INTERNAL ALLIES CAN SEIZE POWER.
IN THIS STRATEGY OF DISRUPTION, THE AREAS MOST HEAVILY
TARGETED ARE CLEARLY THE MIDDLE EAST AND CENTRAL AMERICA- BY
FANNING THE FLAME OF CONFLICT BETWEEN ARAB AND ISRAELI, SUNNI
AND SHIA, RADICAL AND MODERATE ARAB, BY PLAYING BOTH SIDES
AGAINST THE MIDDLE IN THE IRAN-IRAQ WAR, AND BY NAILING DOWN A
MILITARY POSITION IN SYRIA AND AFGHANISTAN, THE SOVIETS HOPE TO
KEEP THE MIDDLE EAST IN TURMOIL AND THE OIL RESOURCES ON WHICH
THE WESTERN WORLD DEPENDS UNDER CONSTANT THREAT. THE OTHER
SENSITIVE TARGET IS THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA- SOVIET
POWER IS ALREADY SOLIDLY ESTABLISHED IN CUBA AND NICARAGUA.
THIS THREATENS THE PANAMA CANAL AND THE SEA LANES OF THE CARIBBEAN.
INSURGENCIES AND REVOLUTIONARY VIOLENCE HAVE BEEN UNLEASHED TO
TOPPLE GOVERNMENTS IN EL SALVADOR, HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA.
SINCE WORLD WAR II, WE HAVE SEEN THAT COUNTRIES FALLING
UNDER COMMUNIST CONTROL PROMPTLY PRODUCE A HEAVY FLOW OF REFUGEES--
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PEOPLE VOTING WITH THEIR FEET TO GO ELSEWHERE. MILLIONS OF
REFUGEES HAVE LEFT EASTERN EUROPE AND CUBA SINCE THE COMMUNISTS
TOOK OVER. HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE HAVE PUT THEIR LIVES
AT STAKE TO ESCAPE FROM INDOCHINA IN LEAKING SHIPS. MORE THAN
ONE-FOURTH OF THE POPULATION OF AFGHANISTAN HAS FLED TO PAKISTAN
AND IRAN. THE 'FLOW OF REFUGEES FROM CENTRAL AMERICA IS ALREADY
UNDER WAY.
A CUBANIZATION OF CENTRAL AMERICA WOULD QUICKLY CREATE NEW
REFUGEES BY THE MILLIONS. THE SOVIETS CAN CALCULATE THAT A
GREATLY INCREASED MILITARY THREAT ON OUR SOUTHERN FLANK AND
THE INTERNAL DISRUPTION THAT WOULD RESULT IF MILLIONS OF LATIN
AMERICANS WALKED NORTH WOULD DISTRACT THE UNITED STATES FROM
DEALING WITH WHAT COULD BE MORE LETHAL THREATS ELSEWHERE IN THE
WORLD. AT THE SAME TIME, AMERICAN INFLUENCE IN CENTRAL AMERICA
WILL BE DAMAGED IF THE WEST IS UNABLE TO SENSITIVELY AND
CONSTRUCTIVELY ASSIST THE PEOPLE OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO
IN DEFENDING THEMSELVES AS WELL AS SOLVING THEIR SOCIAL AND
ECONOMIC PROBLEMS ON THEIR OWN TERMS.
THE US NEEDS A REALISTIC COUNTER-STRATEGY- MANY COMPONENTS
OF THAT STRATEGY ARE FAMILIAR, BUT THEY MUST BE APPROACHED AND
LINKED IN NEW WAYS. THE MEASURES NEEDED TO ADDRESS THE SOVIET
CHALLENGE IN THE THIRD WORLD HAVE THE ADDITIONAL APPEAL THAT THEY
ALSO REPRESENT A SENSIBLE AMERICAN APPROACH TO THE THIRD WORLD
WHETHER OR NOT THE
USSR IS INVOLVED:
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1- WE HAVE TOO OFTEN NEGLECTED OUR FRIENDS AND NEUTRALS.
IN AFRICA, THE MIDDLE EAST, LATIN AMERICA AND ASIA UNTIL THEY
BECAME A PROBLEM OR WERE THREATENED BY DEVELOPMENTS HOSTILE TO
OUR INTERESTS. THESE COUNTRIES NOW BUY 40% OF OUR EXPORTS; THAT
ALONE IS REASON ENOUGH TO PAY GREATER ATTENTION TO THEIR PROBLEMS
BEFORE OUR ATTENTION IS COMMANDED BY COUPS, INSURGENCIES OR
INSTABILITY. THE PRIORITY OF LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES IN OUR
OVERALL FOREIGN POLICY NEEDS TO BE RAISED AND SUSTAINED.
2. WE MUST BE PREPARED TO DEMAND FIRMLY BUT TACTFULLY
AND PRIVATELY THAT OUR FRIENDS OBSERVE CERTAIN STANDARDS OF
BEHAVIOR WITH REGARD TO BASIC HUMAN RIGHTS. IT IS REQUIRED BY
OUR OWN PRINCIPLES AND ESSENTIAL TO POLITICAL SUPPORT IN THE US.
MOREOVER, WE HAVE TO BE WILLING TO TALK STRAIGHT TO THOSE WE
WOULD HELP ABOUT ISSUES THEY MUST ADDRESS TO BLOCK FOREIGN
EXPLOITATION OF THEIR PROBLEMS--ISSUES SUCH AS LAND REFORM,
CORRUPTION AND THE LIKE. WE NEED TO SHOW HOW THE SOVIETS HAVE
EXPLOITED SUCH VULNERABILITIES ELSEWHERE TO MAKE CLEAR THAT WE
AREN'T PREACHING OUT OF CULTURAL ARROGANCE BUT ARE MAKING
RECOMMENDATIONS BASED ON EXPERIENCE.
3. WE NEED TO BE READY TO HELP OUR FRIENDS DEFEND
THEMSELVES. WE CAN TRAIN THEM IN COUNTERINSURGENCY TACTICS AND
UPGRADE THEIR COMMUNICATIONS, MOBILITY, POLICE AND INTELLIGENCE
CAPABILITIES- WE NEED CHANGES IN OUR FOREIGN-MILITARY-SALES
LAWS TO PERMIT THE US TO PROVIDE ARMS FOR SELF-DEFENSE MORE
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QUICKLY- WE ALSO NEED TO CHANGE OUR MILITARY PROCUREMENT POLICIES
SO AS TO HAVE STOCKS OF CERTAIN BASIC KINDS OF WEAPONS MORE .
READILY AVAILABLE.
LI. WE MUST FIND A WAY TO MOBILIZE AND USE OUR GREATEST
ASSET IN THE THIRD WORLD--PRIVATE BUSINESS- FEW IN THE THIRD WORLD
WISH TO ADOPT THE SOVIET ECONOMIC SYSTEM. NEITHER WE NOR THE
SOVIETS CAN OFFER UNLIMITED OR EVEN LARGE-SCALE ECONOMIC ASSISTANCE
TO THE LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. INVESTMENT IS THE KEY TO ECONOMIC
SUCCESS IN THE THIRD WORLD AND WE, OUR NATO ALLIES AND JAPAN
NEED TO DEVELOP A COMMON STRATEGY TO PROMOTE INVESTMENT AND
SUPPORT IT WITH KNOW HOW IN THE THIRD WORLD. THE SOVIETS ARE
HELPLESS TO COMPETE WITH PRIVATE CAPITAL IN THESE COUNTRIES-
? WITHOUT A SUSTAINED, CONSTANT POLICY APPLIED OVER A NUMBER -1
OF YEARS, WE CANNOT COUNTER THE RELENTLESS PRESSURE OF THE USSR
IN THE THIRD WORLD- IT IS PAST TIME FOR THE AMERICAN GOVERNMENT
EXECUTIVEBRANCH AND CONGRESS--TO TAKE THE SOVIET CHALLENGE IN
THE THIRD WORLD SERIOUSLY AND TO DEVELOP A BROAD, INTEGRATED
STRATEGY FOR COUNTERING IT. THE LESS-DEVELOPED NATIONS OF THE
WORLD WILL BE THE PRINCIPAL US-SOVIET BATTLEGROUND FOR MANY
YEARS TO COME.
THERE IS ALSO A POLITICAL WEAPON WE CAN DEPLOY AROUND THE
WORLD WHICH IS MORE POWERFUL THAN THE SOVIETS' MILITARY ARSENAL
AND SUBVERSIVE BAG OF TRICKS. ALL THE PEOPLE OF THE WORLD ON
BOTH SIDES OF THE IRON CURTAIN REMAIN UNITED AS THEY WERE IN
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CHURCHILL'S DAY ON ONE ISSUE--THEIR ABHORRENCE OF DICTATORSHIP
IN ALL ITS FORMS, MOST PARTICULARLY TOTALITARIANISM AND THE
TERRIBLE INHUMANITIES IT HAS CAUSED IN OUR TIME--THE GREAT PURGE,.
AUSCHWITZ AND DACHAU, THE GULAG, AND CAMBODIA- THEY HAVE CERTAINLY
NOTED IT WAS NOT THE DEMOCRACIES THAT INVADED AFGHANISTAN OR
SUPPRESSED POLISH SOLIDARITY OR USED CHEMICAL AND TOXIC WARFARE
IN AFGHANISTAN AND SOUTHEAST ASIA.
AROUND THE WORLD TODAY, THE DEMOCRATIC REVOLUTION IS
GATHERING NEW STRENGTH, IN ASIA, IN AFRICA, IN OUR OWN HEMISPHERE.
IN LATIN AMERICA, 18 OF 34 COUNTRIES HAVE FREELY-ELECTED
GOVERNMENTS AND 6 ARE WORKING TOWARD DEMOCRATIZATION, ALTOGETHER
REPRESENTING 70% OF THE PEOPLE OF THAT CONTINENT- IN THE
UNITED NATIONS, 8 OF THE 10 DEVELOPING NATIONS WHICH HAVE JOINED
THAT BODY IN THE PAST FIVE YEARS ARE DEMOCRACIES. WE MUST FOSTER
THE INFRASTRUCTURE OF DEMOCRACY, THE SYSTEM OF A FREE PRESS,
UNIONS, POLITICAL PARTIES, UNIVERSITIES, WHICH ALLOWS A PEOPLE
TO CHOOSE ITS OWN WAY TO DEVELOP ITS OWN CULTURE, TO RECONCILE
ITS OWN DIFFERENCES THROUGH PEACEFUL MEANS.
FINALLY, IF WE ARE TO WIN THE STRUGGLE FOR THE WORLD'S
FREEDOM AND LIBERTY, WE NEED TO REESTABLISH WHAT SIR JOHN PLUMB
DESCRIBED SO ELOQUENTLY AS THE TRUE DOMINION OF HISTORY WHEN HE
SPOKE ON THIS CAMPUS AT LAST MAY'S KEMPER LECTURE. IT IS IN
THE TRUE STUDY OF OUR HISTORY AND OUR VALUES THAT WE CAN
ESTABLISH THE SAME HISTORICAL CONFIDENCE IN OUR SOCIETY THAT
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WINSTON CHURCHILL HAD IN HIS AND WHICH ENABLED HIM TO SPEAK SO
ELOQUENTLY TO HIS PEOPLE AND THEY TO RESPOND SO WHOLEHEARTEDLY.
Ii IS YOUR CHALLENGE, AS OUR FUTURE LEADERS, TO BRING A PROPER
SENSE OF OUR DESTINY TO OUR AFFAIRS AND THAT CAN ONLY COME THROUGH
A KNOWLEDGE OF OUR PAST AND A FEELING FOR THE HERITAGE WHICH IS
OURS TO PRESERVE AND PASS ON. AND I CAN IMAGINE NO SETTING AND
NO ATMOSPHERE MORE CONDUCIVE TO KINDLING AND DEVELOPING THAT
LEARNING AND THAT SENTIMENT THAN THE ONE WHICH BLESSES YOU
IN THESE SURROUNDINGS AND IN THE TRADITION OF YOUR CHALLENGE.
PRESIDENT KENNEDY SOME TWENTY YEARS AGO OBSERVED THAT WE
WERE INVOLVED IN A LONG TWILIGHT STRUGGLE- WINSTON CHURCHILL'S
SPEECH HERE AT WESTMINSTER COLLEGE MARKED THE INITIAL RECOGNITION
BY THE WEST THAT THE STRUGGLE HAD BEGUN- CHURCHILL ALSO OBSERVED
THAT, "WHAT WE HAVE TO CONSIDER HERE TODAY WHILE TIME REMAINS,
IS THE PERMANENT PREVENTION OF WAR AND THE ESTABLISHMENT OF
. CONDITIONS OF FREEDOM AND DEMOCRACY AS RAPIDLY AS POSSIBLE IN
ALL COUNTRIES."
IT IS NOW NEARING 40 YEARS SINCE WINSTON CHURCHILL SPOKE
HERE- THE THOUGHT THAT I WOULD LEAVE WITH YOU IS THAT THE
STRUGGLE WITH WHAT THE SOVIET UNION REPRESENTS IS NOT CONFINED
TO CHURCHILL'S GENERATION, OR TO MY GENERATION, OR THE GENERATION
OF YOUR FACULTY AND PARENTS, OR YOUR GENERATION. THIS IS A
CONFLICT DEEPLY ROOTED IN IDEAS- THIS CONFLICT IS AS OLD AS
RECORDED HISTORY- THE THREAT POSED BY THE SOVIET UNION IS THE
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LINEAL DESCENDENT OF THE SAME THREAT WESTERN CIVILIZATIONS HAVE
FACED FOR BETTER THAN TWO THOUSAND YEARS: IT IS THE THREAT
POSED BY DEPOTISM AGAINST THE MORE OR LESS STEADILY DEVELOPING
CONCEPT THAT THE HIGHEST GOAL OF THE STATE IS TO PROTECT AND TO
FOSTER THE CREATIVE CAPABILITIES AND THE LIBERTIES OF THE
INDIVIDUAL- IT IS A CONTEST BETWEEN TWO ELEMENTAL AND HISTORICALLY
OPPOSED IDEAS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE INDIVIDUAL AND THE
STATE- THE CHIEF THREAT POSED BY THE SOVIET UNION, THEREFORE, IS
NOT NECESSARILY IN THE VASTNESS OF ITS MILITARY FORCES--THOUGH
VAST THEY ARE--BUT IN THE RELENTLESSNESS OF THEIR ASSAULT ON
OUR VALUES.
THREE DAYS AFTER HIS SPEECH HERE IN FULTON, MR. CHURCHILL
ADDRESSED THE VIRGINIA STATE ASSEMBLY, THE OLDEST LEGISLATIVE
BODY IN THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE. IN THAT SPEECH HE STATED:
"IT IS IN THE YEARS OF PEACE THAT WAR IS PREVENTED AND
THOSE FOUNDATIONS LAID UPON WHICH THE NOBLE STRUCTURES OF THE
FUTURE CAN BE BUILT- THAT PEACE WILL NOT BE PRESERVED WITHOUT
THE VIRTUES WHICH MAKE VICTORY POSSIBLE IN WAR- PEACE WILL NOT
BE PRESERVED BY PIOUS SENTIMENTS EXPRESSED IN TERMS OF PLATITUDES,
OR BY OFFICIAL GRIMACES AND DIPLOMATIC CORRECTITUDE, OR BY CASTING
ASIDE IN DANGEROUS TIMES OUR PANOPLY OF WAR-LIKE STRENGTH- THERE
MUST BE EARNEST THOUGHT. THERE MUST BE FAITHFUL PERSEVERANCE
AND FORESIGHT- GREATHEART MUST HAVE HIS SWORD AND ARMOR TO GUARD
THE PILGRIMS ON THEIR WAY."
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I AM CONFIDENT THAT SIR WINSTON WOULD AGREE THAT DESPITE
OUR FONDEST HOPES TO FULFILL ISAIAH'S PROPHECY, ALL OF HUMAN
HISTORY, AND ESPECIALLY ALL OF RUSSIAN HISTORY, POINTS TO OUR
NEED AND THE NEED OF OUR CHILDREN FOR SWORDS AS WELL AS PLOWSHARES-
I SEE, THEREFORE, THE SAME FUTURE CHURCHILL SAW HERE SO LONG
AGO--NOT AN EASY FUTURE--BUT, WITH PERSEVERANCE AND DEVOTION TO
OUR DUTY, A FREE ONE IN WHICH OUR VALUES AND OPPORTUNITIES ARE
PRESERVED.
END
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