GUIDELINES FOR ALERT MEMORANDUMS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP93T01132R000100020033-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 3, 2012
• Sequence Number: 33
• Publication Date: January 24, 1980
• Content Type: REGULATION

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NFAC NOTICE NFAC N 50-7
NO. 50-7 24 January 1980
GUIDELINES FOR ALERT MEMORANDUMS
Rescission: NFAC N 50-5, dated 12 March 1979
1. The issuance of an Alert Memorandum should be considered when:
Events are moving toward a development
threatening to US interests and it is
not clear that senior policy officers
are fully aware of the implications of
such a development; or,
Events are moving toward a development
so threatening to US interests that it
is desirable for the DCI to forward his
assessment to senior policy officers
despite their general awareness of the
problem.
2. Any element of the Intelligence Community may recommend that
the DCI issue an Alert Memorandum. Such a recommendation should be made
to the NIO/W, who, in consultation with the appropriate NIO, will decide
whether to forward the recommendation to the DCI. The final decision
whether to issue a memorandum will require consideration of probability,
criticality, awareness and prior reaction of the US Government, and the
danger of lessening the impact by alerting too often. The memorandum
should be independent of other intelligence issuances, the existence of
which cannot be the deciding argument against alerting.
3. The Alert Memorandum is not a prediction. An event need only
be a reasonable possibility, although in such a case the memorandum
should make this clear. Moreover, the more critical the potential event
for the US, the lower the probability threshold required.
4. The Alert Memorandum is not an SNIE, nor is it a situation
report. It is not necessary to rehearse the evidence, nor to develop
all the arguments. Rather, emphasis should be given to implications;
the reader should understand why these developments could lead to serious
damage to US interests.
5. If Paragraph 4 is heeded, the Alert Memorandum can be kept
brief; it should be no more than 1 1/2 - 2 pages. In most cases, it
need contain only four paragraphs:
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-- What new developments, in brief, have caused ti
us to issue this memorandum?
-- What potential development of an alarming
nature do they suggest?
-- What are the implications for the US policy-
maker? With what pressing new problems must
he cope?
-- What, in brief, is the Community collection
posture? What changes in tasking have been
made or may be required? (To be prepared
by NITC).
In addition to the Alert Memorandum proper, a one paragraph cover memo-
randum addressed to the NSC will be prepared for the DCI's signature.
This should contain a succinct statement of the warning message. If the
NITC collection statement is of a sensitive nature, it will be promul-
gated to a limited audience under a separate cover memorandum.
6. The Alert Memorandum should be, wherever possible, a Community
paper, issued under the aegis of an NIO. The NIO should seek as much
coordination as time permits. At least telephone consultation is manda-
tory. The degree of coordination should be indicated in the memorandum,
and any major differences of opinion in the Community should be noted.
It should be kept in mind that ultimately, the DCI is responsible for
warning the President. The coordination process should not be allowed
to delay an Alert Memorandum beyond its usefulness. Observance of the
guidelines on brevity and purpose will greatly ease the coordination
process.
7. A supplementary Alert Memorandum on a crisis should be produced
whenever, in the view of the DCI, the crisis has greatly intensified or
changed in some especially significant way. The NIO should issue an
appropriate advisory to the recipients of an Alert Memorandum whenever,
in his judgment, events indicate that the crisis at hand has abated or
terminated (unless that fact is apparent to all).
8. The attachment contains detailed procedures. All personnel
should be aware that Alert Memorandums normally take precedence over
of er pro uction.
9. When time is of the essence, any of these procedures may b
Bruce C. Clarke, Jr.
Director
National Foreign Assessment Center
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or SECRET 'R
Attachments:
1. Procedures for Preparing an Alert Memorandum
_Al ert 9Memgr, ums
Distribution "C" (1-3)
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PROCEDURES FOR ALERT MEMORANDA
1. The Alert Memorandum (AM) is an interagency publication issued
by the DCI on behalf of the Community. In it he warns explicitly of
impending potential developments abroad that may have serious impli-
cations for US interests. The AM is not a prediction that events will
occur. An event need be only a reasonable possibility; in fact, the
more critical the potential impact on the US, the lower the required
threshold of probability. An AM is neither a National Intelligence
Estimate on the one hard, nor a situation report on the other. It is
not necessary to rehearse the evidence and develop arguments in detail
nor is it enough merely to report the fact. The message to the policy-
maker should be threefold:
-- In brief, what new developments have caused an
AM to be issued?
-- What potential outcome do they suggest?
-- If not obvious to the policymaker, what are
the implications if the outcome occurs; i.e.,
with what pressing new problems might he have
to cope?
2. An AM is signed by the DCI, addressed to the National Security
Council, and disseminated to members of NFIB for further dissemination
within their departments and agencies.
3. An AM may be initiated by the DCI or may be proposed by an NFIB
Principal, by a National Intelligence Officer (NIO), or by (or through)
any other senior officer of the intelligence or foreign affairs com-
munities. A proposal for an AM will be addressed to the DCI, the appro-
priate NIO, or the NIO for Warning, but the decision to issue an AM
will in all instances rest with the DCI. Should the DCI decide that
an AM is inappropriate having received a legitimate request to issue
one, the NIO for Warning will provide the requester with an explanation.
4. Responsibility for the production of an AM will normally rest
with the appropriate NIO, and he may call on any element of the Intel-
ligence Community for support. Whenever possible, the NIO will coord-
inate a draft of the AM with appropriate NFIB agencies, and dissenting
views, if any, will be described in the Memorandum. The DCI, however,
may authorize the NIO to limit or forego coordination when time is of
the essence. All AMs will note the extent of coordination within the
Community.
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5. An AM will clearly indicate what special actions are being
taken by the Community to ensure effective coverage of the situation,
the initiation of special collection efforts, the establishment of
crisis task forces, etc.
6. A supplementary AM on a crisis should be produced whenever, in
the view of the DCI, the crisis has greatly intensified or changed in
some specially significant way. The NIO/W should issue an appropriate
advisory to the recipients of an AM whenever, in his judgment, events
indicate that the crisis at hand has abated or terminated (unless that
fact is apparent to all). Collection efforts arising from the issuance
of the alert should also be modified or cancelled as appropriate.
7. Detailed procedures for preparation and issuance of Alert Memo-
randa are attached.
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Intelligence Community Standing Operating Procedures
for Alert Memoranda
Purpose: To establish procedures for quickly notifying the Washington
Community that an Alert Memorandum (AM) is in draft, for ef-
fecting coordination, and for disseminating the final produce.
Background: The AM is an interagency publication issued by the DCI
in behalf of the Intelligence Community. It provides explicit warning
of possible developments of major concern to the United States. It may
be initiated by the DCI or may be proposed by an N=IB Principal, by a
National Intelligence Officer, or by any other senior officer of the
intelligence or foreign affairs communities. Responsibility for its
production will normally rest with the appropriate NIO, who may call on
any element of the Intelligence Community for support. Whenever possible,
the NIO will coordinate a draft of the AM with the appropriate NFIB
agencies.
Procedures: Once the DCI has decided to issue an AM, the process
consists of three distinct segments.
-- Notification to the Community that the decision
has been made and drafting is in progress.
-- Coordination of the draft.
-- Dissemination of the final AM.
Each of the segments is described in some detail in the following
sections.
Notification: Once the ,DCI has decided to issue an AM, the appro-
priate NI0 twill:
Initiate the drafting process.
Direct the CIA Office of Current Operations.to
convene,?'NOIWON conference. Conferees will be
informed of the decision to issue an, the
subject, the responsible NIO, the-source of infor-
mation leading to the decision, extent of coord-
ination being sought, assistance required, and
likely 4.ime .of issuance.
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--:Notify Treasury, DoE and FBI separately
via secure telephone.
At this point the agencies concerned should set in motion those internal
procedures necessary to support the NIO and advise the CIA Operations
,Center of the name of each respective point of contact. The Operations
Center will then provide the list of contacts to the NIO. Should the
point of contact not be immediately apparent, one should be identified
as soon as possible and the responsible NIO informed. If field or
embassy participation is thought to be necessary, the NIO should be
informed at this time.
Coordination: When the draft is ready for coordination, it will be
transmitted via WASHFAX and the Community will be informed via a second
NOIWON conference. Participating-agencies should then contact the respon-
sible NIO directly to effect coordination. If necessary, subsequent
drafts of the AM will also be transmitted via WASHFAX and notification
will be made via the NOIWON. The NIO may, of course, convene a face to
face coordination meeting if required.
Dissemination: When coordination has been completed and the DCI
has signed the final AM, it will be disseminated by WASHFAX and a final
NOIWON conference will be convened to advise all participants. Further
distribution, including reproducing and controlling copies and mainte-
nance of adequate distribution lists, will be the responsibility of each
agency listed herein and will be accomplished as follows:
Responsible Organization Customers
WHSR
White House
NSC
State State Department
Embassies as desired
DIA
NSA
DIA
OSD
JCS
Military Services
SWS
Other DoD as desired
U&S Commands as desired
NSA
Field representatives as desired
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CIA
""M P' S
Treasury* w * ~~ H a '
DOE*
FBI*
NFAC overseas representatives and
Allied intelligence reps as appropriate
CIA
DCI
DIA, State, and NSA are authorized to disseminate the Alert Memo-
randum to field activities except as restricted by classification.
Termination: The NIO/Warning will ensure that appropriate action
is taken to notify the Community when, in his Judgment, events indicate
that the crisis at hand has abated or terminated. He will also request
that collection efforts arising from the issuance of the alert be modified
or cancelled as appropriate.
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