NIE 11-15-88: SOVIET NAVAL STRATEGY AND PROGRAMS TOWARD THE 21ST CENTURY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP93T00837R000400110006-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 8, 2013
• Sequence Number: 6
• Publication Date: September 10, 1987
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/08: CIA-RDP93T00837R000400110006-2
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The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Council NIC if03864
10 September 1987
MEMORANDUM FOR: Acting Director of Central Intelligence
VIA: Chairman, National Intelligence Council
FROM: MG Larry D. Budge, USA
National Intelligence Officer for
General Purpose Forces
SUBJECT: NIE 11-15-88: Soviet Naval Strategy and Programs Toward
the 21st Century
1. The tentative Concept Paper and Terms of Reference for the subject
NIE are forwarded herewith for your approval for further distribution to the
National Foreign Intelligence Board Principals for coordination. The target
date for completion of this paper is February 1988.
2. This estimate was requested by Naval Intelligence;
he believes that the previous estimate needs to be updated in
view of significant new developments in t e ovie avy that have occurred
in recent years. He has asked that a new estimate be produced -- not only
to take these developments into account, but to project probable future
trends and their impact on the US and our allies.
3. The concept of this estimate has been discussed on an informal basis
with analysts in the Intelligence Community (including SOVA, DIA, and Navy)
as well as with the DNI and members of his personal staff. All have been
very receptive and cooperation is likely from both the Intelligence
Community and planners in the Department of Defense.
4. The Senior Review Panel has examined an earlier draft of this CP/TOR
and suggested a number of changes. Their recommendations have been
addressed (see underlining) and the resulting changes are listed below:
o The SRP requested an examination of the expansion of the Soviet
base complex overseas since 1982 and the emerging role of overseas,
land-based facilities (present and future) in Soviet naval
strategy, tactics, and force compositions.
CL by Signer
DECL OADR
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o The SRP also asked for an examination of the implications of the
estimate for US defense planners. As recommended by the SRP, a key
question has been added to the Concept Paper on this subject.
o The SRP believes that there could be confusion in the broader
original title of the estimate: "Soviet Maritime Strategy" and the
focus of the CP/TORS which concentrate mainly on the Soviet Navy.
The focus of this paper is the Soviet Navy and the title has been
changed to reflect it.
o Command, Control, and Communications. We concur with the SRP on
the importance of the subject and it will be highlighted in the
text and key judgments.
? Alternative Scenarios. Although seeking concensus in determining
the probable direction of Soviet naval strategy, we concur in the
need to examine alternative futures. The TORs have been rewritten
to include their consideration and an annex will be added to
examine the effects of possible future arms control agreements.
5. Request approval for distribution to NFIB Principals.
Attachment:
As Stated-
CONCUR:
1 arry I. Budge
Chairman, National Intelligence Council Date
APPROVED:
Acting Director of Central Intelligence Date
SECRE
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