NIE 14.2-87: NORTH KOREA: PROSPECTS FOR THE SUCCESSION AND STABILITY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP93T00451R000300050007-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 15, 2013
• Sequence Number: 7
• Publication Date: October 27, 1987
• Content Type: MEMO

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I ROUTING AND RECORD SHEET
SUBJECT: (Optional) NIE 14.2-87: North Korea: Prospects for the Succession and Stability
Concept Paper and Terms of Reference Approval '
FROM:
Carl W. Ford, Jr. CV/
NIO for East Asia
EXTENSION
NO.
NIC #04156-87/2
DAM
27 October 1987
TO: (Officer designation, room number, and
building)
DATE
OFFICER'S
INITIALS
COMMENTS (Number each comment to show from whom
to whom. Draw a line across column after each comment.)
RECEIVED
FORWARDED
1.
NIC Production Officer
40
le
tAF
ar
4
2. Vice Chairmah, NIC
Graham Fuller
3. Acting Chairman, NIC
H. F. Hutchinson
4.------
4.
NIC Production Officer
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5( ,
5.
-la Executive Registry
28 OCT
1987
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6.
SA/DCI
V9/36
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7.
DDCI
8.
DCI
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()VDCA P7(4
9.
NIC Production Officer
3
IV OV
I
111 Acting Chairman, NIC
H. F. Hutchinson .
1li 1 3
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(1403)0\ :
:
11.
NIO/East Asia
12.
13.
Doi
14.
191
15.
FORM 61n USE PREVIOUS
1-79 v EDITIONS
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* U.S. Government Printing office: 1985-494834/49156
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25X1
? The Director of Central TiTiiigence
Washington, D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Council NIC #04156-87/2
27 October 1987
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
VIA: Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
Acting Chairman, National Intelligence Council
FROM: Carl W. Ford, Jr.
National Intelligence Officer for East Asia
SUBJECT: NIE 14.2-87: North Korea: Prospects for the Succession
and Stability
1. Attached for your review are the proposed Concept Paper and Terms of
Reference (TOR) for NIE 14.2-87: North Korea: Prospects for the Succession
and Stability. The Estimate will be drafted by 25X1
2. This will be the first Estimate that looks at the issue of succession
in North Korea. Earlier Estimates on the North addressed North Korean foreign
policy objectives; the North's proposals for reunification of the Peninsula;
and possible North Korean reactions to potential instability in the South
during the late 1970s. This Estimate is the third in a series on the Korean
peninsula initiated by the NIO/East Asia. It will examine the prospects of
the forthcoming succession in P'yongyang, establish some scenarios for
political change, and assess the implications of the scenarios for political
stability.
3. The Senior Review Panel did not have any substantive disagreements
with the Concept Paper and Terms of Reference. At the suggestion of the SRP,
however, we have dropped the word "Internal" from the title of the Estimate.
4. With your approval we will distribute the Concept Paper and TOR to the
Community representatives for a 12 November 1987 coordination meeting.
Attachments
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25X1
SECRET
SUBJECT: NIE 14.2-87: North Korea: Prospects for the Succession
and Stability
CONCUR:
Acting
man, Nati
A41-4
Deputy irector ofgentral Intelligence
na
Intelligence Council
APPROVED:
tzr
Date
Director
-
Director of Central Intelligence Date
SECRET
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SECREll 25X1
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
NIC #04156-87/2
27 October 1987
VIA: Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
Acting Chairman, National Intelligence Council
FROM: Carl W. Ford, Jr.
National Intelligence Officer for East Asia
SUBJECT: NIE 14.2-87: North Korea: Prospects for the Succession
and Stability
Distribution:
Orig - Addressee
1 - DDCI
1 - D/ExStaff
1 - ER
1 - SA/DCI
1 - AC/NIC
1 - VC/NIC
1 - NIC/PO
1 - SRP
1 - Harry Cochran (c/o NIO/W)
1 - NIC/AG
1 - NIO/ECON
1 - NIO/EUR
1 - NIC Registry
1 - NIO/EA Chron
1 - NIO/EA Dev
NIO/EA:CWFord,Jr./m
270ct87
SECRET
STAT
STAT
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SECRET
The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
NIC-04228-87
22 October 1987
Senior Review Panel
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
SUBJECT:
Senior Review Panel Comments on Draft
Concept Paper and Terms of Reference (TOR)
for NIE 14.2-87: North Korea: Prospects
for the Succession and Internal Stability,
internally dated 5 October 1987
1. The Panel considers the drafts comprehensive, well-
elaborated, and appropriately addressed to the challenges,
problems, and implications of the efforts of Kim Il-song to
secure succession to power by his son, Kim Chong-il.
2. We flag two comparatively minor points: (a) the
possibility of consolidating TOR-III and TOR-IV might be worth
considering in order to assist in holding the ultimate text to
desirable length; (b) the word "internal" might perhaps be
dropped from the title in view of the extensive foreign policy
considerations adduced in TOR-I, TOR-V, and TOR-IV.
3. We commend this initiative--the first estimate that
examines this unprecedented succession problem--and look forward
to the draft paper.
William Leonhart
?It?
Courtland D. Perkins James D. Theberge
n B. McPherson
cc: Acting C/NIC (Mr. Hutchinson)
VC/NIC (Mr. Fuller)
NIO for East Asia
, aigners,
OADR
SECRET
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SECRET
SUBJECT: Senior Review Panel Comments on Draft Concept Paper and
Terms of Reference (TOR) for NIE 14.2-87: North
Korea: Prospects for the Succession and Internal
Stability, internally dated 5 October 1987
ODCl/SRP:thelma
Distribution:
Orig
1
1
1
1
- DCI
- Acting C/NIC (Mr. Hutchinson)
- VC/NIC (Mr. Fuller)
- NIO for East Asia
- NIO for Economics
1
- NIO/AL/AG
(Kate Hall)
1
- PO/NIC
STAT
1
- Executive
Registry
1
- SRP File
1
- SRP Chrono
1 -
SRP (Amb.
Leonhart)
1
- SRP (Gen.
McPherson)
2
SECRET
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