AGENDA FOR APRIL 1986 LATIN AMERICA WARNING AND FORECAST MEETING

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020037-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 15, 2013
• Sequence Number: 37
• Publication Date: April 14, 1986
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved forRelease2013/07/16 : CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020037-5
SECRET, STAT
The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, C.20505
National Intelligence Council
MEMORANDUM FOR: See Distribution
NIC 01915-86
14 April 1986
FROM: Robert D. Vickers, Jr.
National Intelligence Officer for Latin America
SUBJECT: Agenda for April 1986 Latin America
Warning and Forecast Meeting
1. The March 1986 Warning Meeting for Latin America will be held on
Wednesday, 23 April 1986, at 1015 hours in Room 7 E 32, CIA
Headquarters. Invited agencies and components should please keep their
representatives to a necessary minimum because of space limitations.
2. We intend to discuss the following countries/topics:
Nicaragua/Honduras, El Salvador, Haiti and Peru.
Nicaragua/Honduras
During his 28 March press conference, Nicaragua's President Daniel
Ortega stated defiantly "Nicaragua will continue to regard the border as
a 'war zone' as long as there is an aggressor." What are the prospects
for more Sandinista incursions into Honduras? What are the likely
targets and what will be the size and composition of the force? How are
the FDN and the Honduran government likely to respond, politically as
well as militarily? (DIA - 15 minutes on the military aspects;
CIA - 10 minutes on the political aspects)
El Salvador
The current investigation of a large number of rightist civilian and
military personnel involved in kidnappings for ransom has once again
placed President Duarte in a potentially difficult situation with the
Salvadoran security forces. Should the investigation widen, the high
command may be caught in a position of wanting to proceed with the
investigation and prosecution yet wanting to maintain armed forces
unity. President Duarte may be subjected to pressures from the armed
forces to limit the scope of the investigations. What is the likely
impact on the armed forces? What are the political implications?
(DIA - 10 minutes on military aspects; CIA - 15 minutes on the political
aspects)
SECRET
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ksz.) SECRET STAT
Haiti
Civil unrest continues to plague the National Governing Council (CNG)
despite its efforts to garner public support. The country appears to be
drifting without firm leadership while popular impatience and frustration
mount. Why is General Namphy reluctant to announced a timetable for
elections? What other steps can the CNG take to win support, short of
elections? Although coup plotting has not been a big factor up to now,
could this change in light of the military's perception of the CNG's
indecisiveness? (CIA/ALA - 25 minutes)
Peru
The near-term outlook for Peru's economic relations with the United
States remain bleak. While political relations have not yet reached such
a low level, the trend is not encouraging. President Garcia's critical
remarks concerning US policy in Central America during a recent trip to
Argentina and Uruguay have not been helpful. If Peru's economic strategy
is rejected by its creditors, particularly the IMF, will President Garcia
repudiate the debt or make new moves against US interests in Peru? Will
he also increase his confrontational tactics for the benefit of a
Third-World audience? Are the Soviets willing to commit greater military
and economic resources to exploit such a development?
(State/INR - 25 minutes)
3. On 21 April 1986, CIA's telephone numbers will be changed.
Robert D. Vickers, Jr.
1
SECRET
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/16: CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020037-5
STAT
STAT