AGENDA FOR JULY 1986 LATIN AMERICA WARNING AND FORECAST MEETING

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020033-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 15, 2013
• Sequence Number: 33
• Publication Date: July 15, 1986
• Content Type: MEMO

peclassfified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/16: CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020033-9
SECRETJ STAT
The Director of Central Intelligence
Viashington,Eal 20505
National Intelligence Council
MEMORANDUM FOR: See Distribution
NIC 03354-86
15 July 1986
FROM: Robert D. Vickers, Jr.
National Intelligence Officer for Latin America
SUBJECT: Agenda for July 1986 Latin America
Warning and Forecast Meeting
1. The July 1986 Warning Meeting for Latin America will be held on
Wednesday, 23 July 1986, at 1015 hours in Room 7E32, CIA Headquarters.
Invited agencies and components should please keep their representatives
to a necessary minimum because of space limitations.
2. We intend to discuss the following countries/topics: Argentina,
Peru and Nicaragua:
Argentina
Tensions between President Alfonsin and the military have increased
considerably over the last several months as a result of a number of
factors. These include the sentencing by civilian courts of military
leaders for their conduct in the Falklands War and the fear that human
rights trials will be extended to lower-ranking officers.
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What are the prospects that elements of the
military will resort to violent tactics against Alfonsin over the next
several months, and what is the longer term likelihood that military
dissidents can rally sufficient support for a serious coup attempt?
(CIA/ALA - 20 minutes)
Peru
Although tensions between President Garcia and the military over
accusations of brutality in the recent prison uprisings appear to have
receded, serious problems between the President and the armed forces may
lie ahead. President Garcia is attempting to cut military expenditures
significantly, as evidenced by the reduced purchase of Mirage aircraft.
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Finally, the Navy, which is relatively more
conservative than the other services and which was indirectly implicated
in the prison riots, is a potential source of coup plotting against
Garcia. What are the prospects for a serious attempt by the military to
undermine Garica's power base, and what are the indicators that such a
move is underway? (STATE/INR - 20 minutes)
Nicaragua
The US Congressional approval of the military aid bill for the
Contras would result in a considerable increase in logistical support for
the insurgency. Such support may include stepped-up air and sea
deliveries to insurgent forces in central and eastern Nicaragua. What is
the likely Soviet and Cuban reaction to a significant increase in US
logistical support for the insurgents: i.e., will the Soviets station an
AGI office off Nicaragua's east coast to monitor air and sea traffic?
Will the Cubans send air defense missile units to Nicaragua as they did
in Angola? Will the Soviets risk delivery of MIG fighter aircraft to
Nicaragua? (DIA - 30 minutes)
3. Please have your clearances passed
with your attendance plans no later than Tuesday, 22 July.
Robert D. Vickers, Jr.
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/16: CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020033-9
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