AGENDA FOR SEPTEMBER 1986 LATIN AMERICA WARNING AND FORECAST MEETING

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020029-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 15, 2013
• Sequence Number: 29
• Publication Date: September 9, 1986
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved forRelease2013/07/16 : CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020029-4
SECRET
The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, DC. 20505
National Intelligence Council
MEMORANDUM FOR: See Distribution
FROM:
SUBJECT:
NIC 04196-86
9 September 1986
Robert D. Vickers, Jr.
National Intelligence Officer for Latin America
Agenda for September 1986 Latin America
Warning and Forecast Meeting
1. The September Latin America Warning Meeting will be held on
Wednesday, 17 September 1986 at 1015 hours in Room 7D32,
CIA Headquarters. Invited agencies and components should please keep
their representatives to a necessary minimum because of space
limitations.
2. We intend to discuss the following countries/topics: Suriname,
and Nicaragua.
Suriname
While rebel forces do not appear to have the capability to overthrow
the Bouterse government at present, they do seem to be gathering
strength. Ronnie Brunswijk and his followers have thus far carried on a
destabilizing campaign that has proven to be quite effective. Support
for Bourterse on the other hand is already showing signs of uncertainty
and could erode quickly if the rebels continue their attacks. What are
the prospects for a rebel takeover? Who is behind Brunswijk? What type
of government does Brunswijk contemplate? Is the conflict likely to push
Bouterse toward Libya? (CIA/ALA - 30 minutes)
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Nicaragua
The Ministry of Interior (MINT) has been increasing its
responsibilities during the past few years, and these now go far beyond
its original internal security functions. To a considerable extent,
MINT's growth is a reflection of its aggressive and ambitious chief,
Tomas Borge, who is using his position to build a power base. A certain
ideological rivalry has long existed between Borge, the hardliner, and
the Ortegas, who are considered more pragmatic. What are the relative
positions of strength between these two factions? Will these
differences/rivalries flare up and become more divisive? What is the
likely impact of these differences on the military capability of the EPS
(Ejercito Popular Sandinista) and MINT, particularly in operations
requiring cooperation between the two organizations?
(STATE/INR-political aspects; DIA-military aspects -; 311inutes)
3. Please have your clearances passed and call
with your attendance plans no later than Tuesday,
'7)
6(4416_
Robert D. Vickers, Jr.
2
16 September.
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