AGENDA FOR OCTOBER 1986 LATIN AMERICA WARNING AND FORECAST MEETING

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020027-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 15, 2013
• Sequence Number: 27
• Publication Date: October 14, 1986
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved forRelease2013/07/16 : CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020027-6
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The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Council
MEMORANDUM FOR: See Distribution
NIC 04730-86
14 October 1986
FROM: Robert D. Vickers, Jr.
National Intelligence Officer for Latin America
SUBJECT: Agenda for October 1986 Latin America
Warning and Forecast Meeting
1. The October Latin America Warning Meeting will be held on
Wednesday, 22 October 1986 at 1015 hours in Room 7E32, CIA Headquarters.
Invited agencies and components should please keep their representatives
to a necessary minimum because of space limitations.
2. We intend to discuss the following countries/topics:
El Salvador, Nicaragua, and Ecuador.
El Salvador
Insurgent hopes for a military victory in the near term have
diminished greatly over the past year. It should also be quite apparent
to them that President Duarte is in no hurry to resume the dialogue.
Under the circumstances, the guerrillas appear to have revised their
strategy to emphasize urban warfare and political action. Labor unions,
cooperatives and student groups are among the likeliest targets for
insurgent penetration and manipulation, including the creation of popular
front organizations. What is the current status of insurgent efforts,
and the prospects for gaining influence and using these organizations for
their objectives? Are there still differences between the Communist
Party (PCES) and other members of Farabundo Marti National Liberation
Front (FMLN) over the overall strategy, as well as differences in the
tactics to be pursued in attempting to take over labor movements?
(CIA/ALA - 30 minutes)
Nicaragua
Is there any evidence that the Sandinistas will obtain new weapons
systems (eg., air defense missiles) in the next month for use in their
November anniversary celebration? What are likely preconditions or
indicators? (CIA/OGI - 15 minutes)
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/16: CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020027-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/16: CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020027-6
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SECRET STAT
is concerned over reports of Sandinista forces
planning to move against Miskito refugees that have fled across the Coco
River into southeastern Honduras. What is the likelihood of another
Sandinista military incursion into Honduras, either in the southeast or
elsewhere? (DIA - 15 minutes)
Ecuador
The leftist-controlled Congress and President Febres-Cordero are on
what appears to be a collision course if Congress goes ahead with its
threatened impeachment of several key members of the President's
cabinet. The President has stated that he will not permit the removal of
cabinet members without cause. What are the prospects for serious
political instability? Is the military likely to take a more active role
in government as a result? (State/INR - 30 minutes)
3. Please have your clearances passed and call
with your attendance plans no later than Tuesday, 21 October.
Robert D. Vickers, Jr.
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/16 CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020027-6