LATIN AMERICA WARNING AND FORECAST MEETING JULY 1987

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020009-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 15, 2013
• Sequence Number: 9
• Publication Date: July 29, 1987
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved forRelease2013/07/16 : CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020009-6
if i
SECRET I STAT
I he Director ot Lentrai inteingence
Washington. D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Council
MEMORANDUM FOR:
VIA:
FROM:
SUBJECT:
/it,
NIC 041f3=87
29?July 1987
Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
National Intelligence Officer for Warning
Robert D. Vickers, Jr.
National Intelligence Officer for Latin America
Latin America Warning and Forecast Meeting
;ay 1987
1. The following items were discussed at the Latin America Warning
and Forecast Meeting on 22 July 1987.
2,5 Mafts eS1
2. Nicaragua
The wet weather thus far has had only a slight impact on rebel
aerial resupply operations, although insurgent air assets remain thin.
In coming months we expect the level of fighting to remain at
about current levels, but more attacks on military targets, such as the
recent attack on San Jose de Bocay, are likely. There probably will be
some sabotage operations in the Pacific Coast region, but no major
guerrilla attacks are likely. We see little likelihood of any major
insurgent activity in the northeast as the Indians continue to be beset
with internal political problems.
SECRET
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/16: CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020009-6
25X1
STAT
STAT
Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved forRelease2013/07/16 : CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020009-6
)
SME L.NJ
STAT
3. Esquipulas
Prospects for the Central American presidential summit in
Guatemala seem good, and it will probably take place as scheduled around
7 August. The Sandinistas decided to attend after the Core Four
agreed--albeit reluctantly--to invite the Contadora countries to attend
as observers. Costa Rican President Arias has been especially opposed to
Contadora participation, viewing its presence as an effort by the
pro-Sandinista Mexicans to fold his proposal into the current Contadora
draft treaty and reduce pressure on Nicaragua.
In any event, no treaty is likely to emerge from the August
summit, but there will likely be an agreement to meet again, possibly
this fall. The Sandinistas may benefit from the continued delay if they
escape the summit without exposing themselves. The future role of the
Contadora countries is uncertain, but they could try to reassert their
role in the process, undercutting the Core Four's hopes of controlling
the negotiating process and bolstering Nicaragua's position in the
talks.
WARNING ISSUE: Although at this juncture no treaty seems
likely, Mexico and Nicaragua may collaborate and put forward a draft
proposal for a partial agreement that avoids any prior Sandinista
concessions on internal political reforms. Furthermore, they may call
for a halt in any external aid to the Nicaraguan resistance until the
Arias Plan is finalized.
25X1
25X1
SECRET STAT
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/16: CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020009-6
Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved forRelease2013/07/16 : CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020009-6
SECRET STAT
4. Haiti
Unrest has subsided but tensions remain high and further violence and
work stoppages are likely. The military-controlled ruling council has
lost considerable public trust and, despite frequent reiterations of its
commitment to elections, it will likely remain a focal point for
opposition demonstrations. At the same time, however, the council is not
confident that the civilians are capable of remaining in power for long,
and there are indications that the military is making plans to return to
power. Meanwhile, the electoral commission is fueling the confusion,
calling for the approval of an unworkable election decree that will
require nearly 30,000 literate workers and millions of dollars to
implement.
WARNING ISSUE: Continued unrest and violent demonstrations are
almost certain, and it remains to be seen if national elections can be
held on schedule. Extremists on the left appear intent on forcing a
confrontation with the government, looking to derail the election process
and provoke a right-wing reaction. Right-wing plotting will also persist.
5. Dominican Republic
Despite the increased unrest over the past two months--sparked
by demands for land reform and improved social services--President
Balaguer's popularity remains high and he is confident that he can
control the demonstrations. The unrest, however, has spread gradually
from the rural areas into Santo Domingo. Until recently, the
demonstrations have not been led by any group, but the left is becoming
3
25X1
25X1
25X1
SECRET) STAT
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/16: CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020009-6
Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved forRelease2013/07/16 : CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020009-6
SELRET
.1!
increasingly interested in provoking unrest and the labor unions backed
the 28 July general strike. Balaguer is trying to undercut support for
the unrest by declaring wage increases and spending considerable time in
the countryside distributing land and launching social development
projects. He has few resources to draw on, however, and believes the
United States has failed to fulfill its financial obligations, which has
reduced his ability to respond to the unrest. Cuban President Castro,
meanwhile continues to look for opportunities to improve relations with
Santo Domingo.
WARNING ISSUE: The potential for further unrest--prompted at
least in part by the left--will remain high, but at this juncture poses
no threat to the stability of the government. Over the longer run,
however, the left is likely to gain a greater political role, and leftist
leader Juan Bosch may become the leading contender for the next President
of the Dominican Republic.
11(ri/
Robert D. Vickers,
4
STAT
25X1
25X1
STAT
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/16: CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020009-6
Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved forRelease2013/07/16 : CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020009-6
SECRET,
Participating in the NIO/Latin America Warning Meeting of
22 July 1987 were representatives of the following agencies:
DIA: DIO/DIA
DIA/0E3
DIA/DB3C2
DIA/DB3C1
DIA/0A-5
JSI-4B
DIA/CAJIT
National Security Agency
Department of State/INR
Department of the Army
CIA Participants:
ALA
OGI
DIA
LDA
OIR
DO/LA
DO/CATF
DO! EPS
NIO/W
NP IC
FBIS
NIC/AG
5
STAT
25X1
SECRET STAT
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/16: CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020009-6
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/16: CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020009-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/16: CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020009-6
Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved forRelease2013/07/16 : CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020009-6
LA4) Czo)c)
SECRET STAT
NIC 03123-87
SUBJECT: WARNING REPORT FOR LATIN AMERICA
DATE: 29 July 1987
DISTRIBUTION:
1 - DCI
1 - DDCI
1 - EXDIR
1 - ER
1 - DDI
1 - C/NIC
1 - VC/NIC (Fuller)
1 - VC/NIC (Hutchinson)
1 - DDI Registry
2 - NIO/W
1 - NIO/AF
1 - NIO/EA
1 - NIO/GPF
1 - NIO/NESA
1 - NIO/AL (Einsel)
1 - NIO/FDIA
1 - NIO/USSR
1 - Nb/Europe
1 - NIO/SP
1 - NIO/ECON
1 - NIO/S&T
1 - NIO/CT
1 - NIO/NARC
1 - SRP
1 - IPC/DDI
1 - D/CPAS (Room 7F17, HQS)
1 - D/OIR (Room 2E60 HQS)
1 - D/LDA (Room 1H19 HQS)
1 - D/SOVA (Room 4E58 HQS)
1 - D/OIA (Room 3N100 BLDG 213)
1 - D/NESA (Room 6G00, HQS)
1 - D/OEA (Room 4F18, HQS)
1 - D/OSWR (Room 5F46, HQS)
1 - D/NPIC (Room 6N100 BLDG 213)
1 - NPIC/PEG (Michael Flowers,
1 - NPIC/IEG/C/S/AB Room 3C525 Bldg 213)
1 - FBIS/C/LRB/Lamar (Room 1011, KEY BLDG)
1 - FBIS/ELAAD/Franklin (Room 402, KEY BLDG)
1 - NPIC/IAD/AAD Room 3S236, BLDG 213)
1 - 0/ALA
1 - D/OGI
1 - C/DDO/LAD, Room 3C2016, Hqs
1 - DDO/LA/RR, Room 3C3203, Hqs
1 - DDO/LA/CATF Room 3C24 Hqs
1 - 000/PCS (Room 2055 Has)
1 - 000/EPS Room 2024 Hqs)
25X1
STAT
STAT
25X1
25X1
SECRET, STAT
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/16: CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020009-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/16: CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020009-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/16: CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020009-6
25X1