SENIOR REVIEW PANEL COMMENTS ON DRAFT SNIE 56-88: THE PHILIPPINES: PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS FOR THE AQUINO GOVERNMENT (FAST-TRACK), INTERNALLY DATED 3 MARCH 1988

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP92T00306R000300090007-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 11, 2013
• Sequence Number: 7
• Publication Date: March 10, 1988
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/11: CIA-RDP92T00306R000300090007-5
The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
Senior Review Panel
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
SUBJECT:
Senior Review Panel Comments on Draft
SNIE 56-88: The Philippines: Problems
and Prospects for the Aquino Government
(Fast-Track), internally dated I March 1988
1. The Panel continues to believe that conditions in the
Philippines warrant a crisp, condensed, and pointed SNIE, and in
four separate memoranda we have spelled out our concerns. This
precoordination draft does not fill the bill.
2. In an initial memorandum of 24 September 1987, we
spelled out six specific areas where we felt trends were
converging toward an impending crisis and which we felt had not
been sufficiently dealt with in Community estimates. In response
to a first draft Concept Paper/TOR on 3 November, we noted that
most of the trends about which we were concerned were not dealt
with and that the project was almost exclusively Aquino-
centered. Our response to the first draft of SNIE 56-2-87 was
that it was "unduly prescriptive" and varied substantially from
its Concept Paper/TOR, and lacked intelligence to support many of
its propositions. On 10 December we were less than enthused with
a new draft Concept Paper/TOR, and we once again spelled out the
six items which we felt were critical to the Estimate. They had
not been dealt with. We stressed again that the SNIE "should not
involve specific policy recommendations."
3. The Panel can only express disappointment with the
current draft, even though some of the important trends about
which we were concerned are being dealt with, albeit in less than
organized fashion. But this draft is not an Intelligence
Estimate. In its present form, it is a Policy Paper. A quick
glance at the "Executive Summary" reveals such items as:
"civilian authorities need to play an integral role", "The
...-.. V,.
Signers _
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President . . . must set priorities"; "Local authorities must set
priorities"; Manila "will also need to reform"; "steps we believe
are necessary to shape the AFP"; or "speedy implementation of a
land reform program, greater crop diversification, and more rural
infrastructure are urgently needed."
4. An SNIE which presents the facts as we know them and
projects possible trends in critical areas together with
alternatives is indeed needed for the Philippines as we approach
the crunch on base negotiations. In the estimative process it is
probably better not to stress what "we believe" (the phrase is
used ten times in just the "Executive Summary") or that "we are
concerned" or."we are encouraged." These are policymaker
expressions. Surely our intelligence on the Philippines is
sufficient for us to draft out what "we know," not just what we
believe, especially.if, as in this case, the beliefs are linked
to policy prescriptions, which is the impression the reader
gathers in several instances.
5. This leads to a second general area of concern. The
draft, in its present form, lacks specifics--though some of them
are supplied in the Boxes and in the Annex. The policymaker will
want some of these in the text: What are the trade and aid
statistics? What is the tenancy situation which calls out for
land reform? What are the specifics about Mrs. Aquino's
relatives which are referred to in the text? How about an
estimate, with an example, of the degree of corruption? What are
the areas controlled by the insurgents, both Communist and
Moro? Specifically, what are the "intractable cultural and
historical traditions"?
6. The present draft remains imprecise with regard to its
estimative time frame. The reader gets a menu ranging from "one
year" to a "few years," to a "couple of years," to "the next
several years," and "to 1990." Incidentally, Aquino's term ends
in 1992.
7. The draft, pages 34-36, mentions some "key indicators"
.with regard to government performance. We find here the same
tendency toward prescription on the part of the drafters. The
"indicators" are phrased in terms of what the government "must"
do. For an intelligence estimate a "key indicator" would be
something more like "the willingness of local government
officials to reside in areas they govern," mentioned earlier in
the draft (page 17).
8. The Panel is convinced that this draft SNIE requires a
rigorous tightening, reorganization to parallel the format of the
Key Questions and Key Judgments, and more pointed adducing of
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intelligence to make clear to the policymaker/reader the
seriousness of the impending crisis in the Philippines.
9. A final note: Box 3 on Government Spending is
essentially a comparison between Thailand and the Philippines.
This could prove confusing, could distract attention from the
nature of the government program, and could lead to comparisons
which are not necessarily valid or of value.'
4q=--
. McPherson
John E. Robertson
cc: AC/NIC (Mr. Hutchinson)
VC/NIC (Mr. Gries)
NIO for East Asia
ODCl/SRP:thelma
Distribution:
prig- DCI
_ 1 7 AC./NIC (Mr. Hutchinson)
1 - VC/NIC (Mr. Cries)
1 - NIO for East Asia
1 - Nb O for Economics
1 - NIO/AL/AG (Kate Hall)
1 - PO/NIC-
1 - Executive Registry
1 - SRP File
1 - SRP Chrono
1 - SRP (Amb. Leonhart)
1 - SRP (Gen_ McPherson)
3
SECRET
Courtland D. Perkins
Richard L. Walker
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/11: CIA-RDP92T00306R000300090007-5