POINTS TO MAKE IN LETTER(S) OF TRANSMITTAL

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Points
LU
-
Points to Make in Letter(s) of Transmittal
This study, Measures of Soviet Gross National Product in 1982
Prices, was prepared by the Central Intelligence Agency at the
request of the Joint Economic Committee. The paper was drafted by
who benefited from the advice and comments of many
of her CIA colleagues.
This study presents comprehensive estimates of Soviet economic
performance since 1950 and describes the derivation of these
estimates. It updates and supplements the 1982 volume, USSR:
Measures of Economic Growth and Development, 1950-80, which also
was prepared by the CIA and published by the JEC. The present
numerical estimates cover the years 1950-87 and include an update
of the ruble price base from 1970 to 1982.
STAT
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Je
Points to Make in Foreword
Gorbachev's credibility has become increasingly dependent on his
ability to improve the functioning of the Soviet economy, and
especially the population's standard of living. The measurement of
progress toward these goals also has become increasingly important,
but official Soviet summary statistics on economic growth have long
been considered unreliable by Western specialists. Over the years,
the CIA's estimates of Soviet GNP growth have become widely
accepted as an alternative to those official statistics.
Since Gorbachev assumed power in March 1985, he has sought to
revitalize the Soviet economy by strengthening worker discipline,
modernizing production technology, and introducing decentralizing
reforms. But overall economic growth in 1986-89 has been about as
slow as it was during the 1981-85 "stagnation period," and in many
ways.economic difficulties have mounted.
? Copsumers have become increasingly impatient with the limited
? availability and low quality of goods and services.
A serious budget deficit has developed, partly because of
higher investment spending for Gorbachev's modernization drive
? ? apd a sharp drop in tax revenues resulting from his antialcohol
campaign.
Inflation rates--traditionally low by world standards--have
increased sharply in 1988-89.
Meanwhile, thanks largely to glasnost, Soviet criticisms of the
USSR's official statistics have become increasingly sharp.
Early in 1987, economic journalist Vasiliy Selyunin and
economist Grigoriy Khanin captured national attention by
publishing estimates of overall economic growth that were much
lower than official figures.
Two years later, an article in the official journal of the
Communist Party charged the State Committee for Statistics with
excluding a sharp drop in legal production and sales of
alcohol--as a result of Gorbachev's sobriety campaign--from
several summary measures of economic performance.
In July 1989, the Soviet leadership dismissed Mikhail_Korolev
as head of the State Committee for Statistics and appointed
Vadim Kirichenko as his successor.
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For many years, the CIA has devoted a large research effort to
estimating the size and growth of Soviet GNP. These estimates have
several objectives:
To remedy the shortcomings of official Soviet summary
statistics.
To estimate key aspects of Soviet economic performance for
which official data are not regularly published, partly because
of reluctance to reveal sensitive or embarrassing information.
To replicate as closely as possible the measures familiar to
users of the economic statistics of the United States and other
Western countries.
In the last few years, some critics have argued that the CIA's
?.estimates of Soviet GNP growth are understated, while others have
maintained that growth' is overstated. The CIA believes that its
estimates of total GNP growth are reasonably accurate, partly
because errors in opposite directions offset each other to some
extent. Certain components of GNP growth are not estimated as
accurately as the total, however, and efforts to improve those
estimates are under way.
In publishing this study, the JEC seeks to make the CIA's estimates
of Soviet GNP available to a wide audience, to promote an
understanding of the derivation of these estimates, and to
stimulate discussion of possible improvements in methods of
estimation.
The present paper updates and supplements the 1982 volume,
USSR: Measures of Economic Growth and Development, 1950-80,
which also was prepared by the CIA and published by the JEC.
The numerical estimates here cover the years 1950-87 and update
the ruble price base from 1970 to 1982.
The JEC also conducts annual hearings on the allocation of
resources to defense in the Soviet Union and periodically
publishes collections of papers by a variety of academic and
government specialists on the Soviet economy.
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Measures of Soviet
Gross National Product
in 1982 Prices
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Summary
Measures of Soviet
Gross National Product
in 1982 Prices
Western estimates of the size and growth of gross national product (GNP)
in the USSR were first developed several decades ago, largely as a result of
skepticism about the reliability of official Soviet summary statistics. These
independent estimates remain necessary to remedy the shortcomings of
such official measures. This paper describes the methods currently used by
the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) to estimate Soviet GNP and
presents our latest numerical estimates?including an update of the ruble
price base from 1970 to 1982. In addition, problems of estimation are
discussed and the reliability of the results is assessed.
Methods of Estimation
The CIA's estimates of Soviet GNP are based on the same concept used in
?the United States and other Western countries: the total value of goods and
services sold to final purchasers during a given period of time. Our initial
estimates of GNP, like official Soviet statistics, are valued in established
prices?that is, prices set or authorized by central officials. These prices,
however, have deficiencies that prevent them from reflecting the allocation
of economic resources accurately, so we convert them to adjusted factor
costs. In the conversion process, we subtract turnover and other indirect
taxes?which sharply raise selected prices, mainly of alcohol and manufac-
tured consumer goods?and add subsidies?which keep other prices artifi-
cially low, especially for food and basic consumer services. Next, because
the profit margins included in established prices are often arbitrary,
reported profits are removed from GNP. Finally, a calculated return on
capital?at a rate currently assumed to be 12 percent?is added back in an
effort to reflect the productivity of capital in the economy.
We estimate the growth of total GNP as an average of indexes of the
growth of its components weighted by their base-year values at adjusted
factor cost. The growth of each component is estimated using a sample of
output, which may be based on two major kinds of Soviet data:
? Data on quantities of output in physical units?such as tons, items, or
square meters?which are multiplied by base-year prices to obtain
values.
? Data on values of output in prices officially described as "comparable,"
which are supposed to measure output excluding the effects of price
changes, as Western economic statistics in constant prices do.
Ill
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-t.
?
Both kinds of data have shortcomings. Over the years, Western studies of
Soviet quantity data have generally found them reliable as indicators of
changes in the physical volume of output. Research on the measurement of
real growth, however, has shown that data on physical quantities often do
not capture the full extent of changes in product mix and quality. Also, in a
variation on the use of physical output data, data on labor inputs?
measured in work hours?are used to estimate the growth of a number of
services for which no output statistics are available. These input data do
not reflect increases in labor productivity.
Almost all Western experts, and now most Soviet economists, believe that
value data in comparable prices overstate growth because they include a
substantial degree of disguised inflation. This inflation has two main
sources. First, producers benefit financially from making minor changes in
familiar products and using these "improvements" as an excuse for
increasing prices. When production of older, cheaper items is stopped at
the same time, purchasers are left with little choice but to accept the new
ones. Second, even products reflecting genuine improvements are assigned
high prices at first to cover the research, development, and other costs of
the initial stages of production. These prices are supposed to be reduced af-
ter a few years, but producers typically try to keep any reduction as small
as possible and to postpone it as long as possible.
Reliability of Estimates
In the last few years, questions about the reliability of our estimates of So-
viet GNP have been raised on two main fronts. Some Western researchers
have focused on the potential understatement of growth resulting from our
use of quantity data. Criticisms of official Soviet statistics by Soviet and
Western economists, on the other hand, have called attention to potential
overstatement in the value data we use in estimating growth?and possibly
in some of the quantity data as well.
On balance, we believe that our estimates of total GNP growth are
reasonably accurate, partly because errors in opposite directions offset each
other to some extent. The growth estimates for certain components of
GNP, however, are subject to greater potential bias?that is, consistent
overstatement or understatement?than we would like:
? Machinery output growth probably is biased upward because the sample
on which it is based includes a substantial share of Soviet value data.
iv
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? Growth of the machinery component of investment also is based on value
data and is likely to be overstated.
? Housing growth is estimated on the basis of living space?without
allowance for improvements in amenities?and is very likely to be biased
downward.
? Growth estimates for education, health, and government administrative
services almost certainly are understated because they are based on labor
inputs, which do not reflect gains in productivity.
Potential Impact of Changes in Soviet
Statistics on GNP Estimates
The availability of detailed economic data, such as those used in estimates
of GNP growth, has improved under General Secretary Gorbachev's policy
of glasnost. Nonetheless, glasnost has not eliminated the need for esti-
mates that do not depend on official Soviet summary statistics. As recent
Soviet critics have reminded us, often with striking illustrations, those
statistics continue to be valued in prices that do not accurately reflect the
costs of economic resources and that include a substantial degree of
disguised inflation.
Meanwhile, the Soviet statistical system is under increasing pressure to
collect new kinds of data and to improve the measures of economic
performance derived from both new and existing data. Such changes may
eventually improve the reliability of many official statistics. In the interim,
however, users will need to watch closely for changes in definition and
coverage and probably adapt to the replacement of familiar measures by
new ones.
Reverse Blank V
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Contents
Page
Summary
- iii
Introduction
1
Soviet Economic Development in a Western Perspective
1
Major Trends in GNP in 1982 Prices
2
Slowdown of Economic Growth
3
Competition for Resources
6
Results of Move to New Price Base
6
Methods of Estimation
9
Overview of Estimating Methods'
9
Base-Year GNP
9
GNP Growth
12
Base-Year GNP in Established Prices
12
Basic Income and Outlay Accounts
13
End-Use Residual
16
Determination of Total GNP
16
Imputations
16
Sources of Data
17
Contribution of Second Economy
17
Comparison With US Methods
18
Factor Cost Adjustment of Base-Year GNP
19
Valuation of GNP
20
Adjustment of GNP by Sector of Origin
20
Adjustment of GNP by End Use
22
Sources of Data
22
Results of Adjustment
23
Growth of GNP
26
Detailed Weights for Growth Estimates
27
Growth of GNP Components: Changes in Procedure
18
Industry
28
Repair and Personal Care
28
Recreation
28
vii
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Reliability of Estimates of Growth
29
Growth by Sector of Origin
29
Adequacy of Samples
_ 29
Kinds of Data in Samples
29
Quantity Data
30
31
33
33
Value Data
Proxies for Value Added
Gross Output
Intermediate Inputs
33
Labor Inputs
34
Criticisms of Estimates
34
Industry
34
Services
35
Potential Impact of Errors
36
Industry
36
38
Services
Growth by End Use
- 38
39
Consumption
Investment
an
43
44
Base-Year Weights
Labor Income
Returns on Capital and Land
44
Net Impact of Errors on Total GNP Growth
45
Comparisons With Soviet Estimates
45
Results of Sensitivity Tests
47
Avenues for Improvements in Estimates
47
Glasnost, Perestroyka, and Soviet Statistics
50
Appendixes
A. Trends in Soviet GNP, 1950-87
53
--
95
113
B. Soviet GNP in Established Prices, 1982
C. Results of Factor Cost Adjustment of 1982 Soviet GNP
.viii
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Measures of Soviet
Gross National Product
in 1982 Prices
The measurement of national income. it has
been said, is an art rather than a science. If this
is so (and few practitioners would disagree), for
Russian national income it may be felt the art
must even assume an occult character. Is it
really worth while to attempt such measure-
ments in this case? ... Great as the difficulties
are, they do not appear to .be overwhelming.
With sufficient care and industry, it should be
possible to limit the range of conjecture, and
even uncertain knowledge may be highly valu-
able on a vital theme.
Abram Bergson
The Real .Vational Income of Soviet
Russia Since 1928
Introduction
The purpose of this paper is to describe the methods
currently used by the Central Intelligence Agency
(CIA) in its estimates of Soviet gross national product
(GNP), especially methods that have changed since
our last comprehensive publication on the subject
(henceforth, USSR: Measures).' The latest esti-
mates?including an update of the ruble price base
from 1970 to 1982?also are presented.'
' Joint Economic Committee. Congress of the United States,
USSR: Measures of Economic Growth and Development, 193040
(Washington: US Government Printing Office, 1982). The volume
consists of chapters by John Pitzer on GNP overall. by Ray
Converse on industrial production. by Barbara Severin and Marga-
ret Hughes on agricultural production, and by Gertrude E. Schroe-
der and M. Elizabeth Denton on consumption.
' The GNP estimates in this paper reflect the structure and growth
of the Soviet domestic economy in constant ruble prices. The CIA
also uses dollar prices?along with ruble prices?to compare the
size of Soviet GNP with that of GNP in the United States and
other Western countries. For discussions of GNP comparisons.
which are outside the scope of this paper. see Imogene Edwards.
Margaret Hughes, and James Noren, "U.S. and U S SR.: Com
parisons of GNP," in Joint Economic Committee. Cnngress of the
United States. Soviet Economy in a Time of Change (Washington
US Government Printing Office, 19791; and Gertrude E Schroeder
and Imogene Edwards. Consumption in the USSR: .9n Internatif,n-
al Comparison, prepared for the Joint Economic Committee ot
Congress (Washington: US Government Printing Office. 19811.
1
Since the publication of USSR: Measures, questions
have been raised?directly and indirectly?about the
reliability of our GNP estimates. Recent criticisms of
official Soviet statistics by Soviet and Western econo-
mists have called attention to the possible impact of
deficiencies in some of the Soviet data we use In
addition, several Western researchers have questioned
various aspects of our estimation methods We hope
this paper's exposition of methods and discussion of
problems of estimation, which address these issues,
will encourage further comments and suggestions for
improvements.
The main body of this paper begins with a brief
review of the rationale for and the results of our
current estimates of Soviet economic growth. The
major trends shown by GNP estimates in 1982 prices
are summarized, and differences from estimates in
1970 prices?generally small?are noted. Next, our
methods of estimating Soviet GNP are described,
including procedural changes connected with the new
price base. The essentials of methods already covered
in USSR: Measures are summarized for the conve-
nience of the reader, but details discussed there die
not addressed in this paper. This descriptior, of estt? ?
mation methods is followed by a discussion of the
degree of confidence we place in the growth estimates.
Criteria for reliable estimates of economic growth are
reviewed, and the extent to which CIA estimates
satisfy these criteria is evaluated. Finally, the poten-
tial impact of ongoing changes in Soviet statistics on
our GNP estimates is discussed.
Soviet Economic Development in a Western
Perspective
For decades Western researchers have been skeptical
of the reliability of official Soviet summary statistics:
independent Western estimates of GNP are designed
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Western Estimates of Soviet GNP
Research on Soviet GNP was pioneered by Abram
Bergson in the 1940s and developed by him and his
colleagues under the sponsorship of the RAND Cor-
poration during the 1950s and 1960s. Bergson 's
initial work involved estimating GNP in current
established prices and adjusting those estimates in an
effort to correct some of the distortions of the Soviet
pricing system. His adjusted factor cost values were
intended to reflect the costs of labor and capital
resources used in the economy?the factors of pro-
duction?better than established prices could:Subse-
quently, RAND scholars estimated price indexes that
were used to derive measures of GNP,growth in
constant prices. Bergson also has used these building-
block studies of GNP as a basis for comparing levels
of economic activity in the USSR and other countries
and for analyzing Soviet productivity.
After the RAND Corporations's research on Soviet
GNP concluded in the late 1960s. the CIA?where
classified work on the subject began in the early
1950s?became the principal source of Western esti-
mates. Recent CIA efforts have concentrated largely
on constant price measures of Soviet economic
growth. although Soviet GNP in current prices also is
estimated for selected years. Because of changes in
the availability of data, our present approach to
estimating growth differs from that used by Bergson
and his associates in two major ways. First, we
primarily use data on changes in quantities of output
weighted by base-year values, rather than data on
changes in current values of output deflated by price
indexes. Second, our estimates of the growth of total
GNP are determined as a weighted average of growth
rates estimated for industry and the other sectors in
which GNP is produced. In contrast, in the Bergson-
RAND approach, total GNP growth was a weighted
average of estimates .of the growth of purchases for
consumption and other uses of GNP.
'The RAND studies are summarized by Bergson in The Real
.National Income of Soviet Russia Since-1928 (Cambridge. Mass.:
Harvard University Press, 1961), pp. vii-ix; and by Abraham
Becker in Soviet National Income, 1958-1964 (Berkeley and Los
.4ngeles: University of California Press, 1969), pp. 1. 578 USSR:
Measures (pp. 11-12. 26) also discusses estimates of Soviet GNP by
RAND Corporation and other researchers outside the CIA.
to remedy some of the shortcomings of these official
figures (see inset). One of the major shortcomings is
the presence of disguised inflation in measures that
should reflect real economic growth?that is, exclude
the effects of price changes. This problem is avoided
whenever possible by using detailed production
data?usually in physical units?to track changes in
output. GNP also is revalued in an effort to correct
some of the distortions of established prices?that is,
prices set or authorized by Soviet officials. The
resulting values- called adjusted factor costs lor sim-
ply factor costs)?reflect the distribution of labor and
capital resources more accurately than established
.'prices do. Traditional Soviet aggregate measures.
moreover, have omitted depreciation and services?
except those that contribute directly to output of
material goods. GNP estimates by Western econo-
mists?and now also by Soviet statisticians (see
inset)?include depreciation and services.
To measure the real growth of Soviet GNP, quantities
of output produced in a series of years are valued at
prices of a fixed base year. This base year should be
close enough to the present so that prices approximate
current trade-offs between competing uses of econom-
ic resources. When we began work on a new price
base (1982), our previous base year (1970) was becom-
ing outdated. Major changes had occurred in the
relationships among Soviet prices:
? Industrial prices were revised on 1 January 1982,
following less comprehensive changes in the mid-
1970s.
? Agricultural prices were increased several times,
starting in the late 1970s.
? Construction prices were raised on 1 January 1984,
in order to incorporate the new industrial prices.
The shift to a 1982 price base cantureq the new
industrial prices and all of the price increases in
agriculture except the last ones in 1983, but not the
new construction prices.
Major Trends in GNP in 1982 Prices
Although the new price base has changed our numeri-
cal estimates of GNP growth?generally by small
amounts?it has not altered our perception of the
major patterns of economic development in the
2
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New Soviet Official Statistics on GNP
Official Soviet measures of aggregate economic per-
formance, because they are based on Marxian con-
cepts. have long excluded depreciation and services
that do not contribute directly to output of material
goods. The traditional measures are often called net
material product (NM?) to indicate these exclusions.
Early in 1987. however, the Soviet State Committee
for Statistics began publishing estimates of GNP?as
the measure is defined by Western economists?in
recent years.a Solar, these Soviet GNP statistics
have been derived by adding depreciation and nonma-
terial services to NMP. Work on developing more
detailed GNP estimates is under way.
a (Octal GNP figures were first released in the yearend report on
1987 economic performance; see Pravda (24 January 1988). Esti-
mates for additional years are published in the short statistical
yearbook presenting data through 1988: see SSSR v tsifrakh v
1988 godu (USSR in Figures in 1988) (Moscow: Finamy i stalls-
tikb..1989), pp. 5, 9, 14. Soviet methods of estimating GNP are
discussed in "Metodika ischisleniya valovogo natsionarnogo pro-
dukta SSSR"(Methods of Calculating the Gross National Prod-
uct of the USSR), Vestnik statistiki (No. 6, 1988): pp. 30-42: and
Yu. Ivanov. B. Ryabushkin, and M. Eyderman. "Ischisleniye
valovogo natsionarnogo produkta SSSR" (Calculating the Gross
National Product of the USSR). Vestnik statistiki (No. 7. 1988): DA
32-38.
From the Soviet estimates of GNP released solar,
the official value of total GNP in current established
prices appears a little lower than CIA estimates. The
new Soviet statistics on GNP growth, however, are
subject to about the same extent of disguised infla-
tion as traditional NMP growth statistics (see table).
Because GNP is presently derived from NMP, this is
not surprising.
Average
Annual
Growth
1981-85
Annual Growth
Percent
?
1986
1987
GNP
Soviet
4.0
4.6
3.3
CIA
1.8
4.0
1.3
NMP
Soviet
3.6
4.1
2.3
1.4
CIA
1.6
3.5
USSR. This stability of the estimates indicates that
the price changes that occurred between 1970 and
1982 were not sharp enough to lead to substantial
differences in the relative importance of the detailed
output data on which GNP growth depends.
Slowdown of Economic Growth. The Soviet economy
has made substantial gains since the end of World
War II, but its growth has slowed?gradually at first
and more sharply in the last decade. Total GNP?
measured in constant 1982 prices?roughly quadru-
pled from 1950 to 1987. Annual rates of increase in
GNP averaged slightly more than 4.5 percent from
1950 to 1975 but fell to about 2 percent from 1975 to
3
1987 (see table 1 and figure 1).' Although there have
been improvements in the functioning of some parts of
the economy since the final Brezhnev years, it is too
early to predict the effects on GNP growth of General
Secretary Gorbachev's efforts to reform the economic
system, which are just beginning.
' All estimates are subject, in varying degrees, to errors and
uncertainties that are discussed below, in the section, "Reliability
of Estimates of Growth.- In the present section. estimates are
valued at 1982 factor cost, rather than in Soviet established prices.
Sec appendix A for tables of GNP estimates from 1950 through
1987. These tables show the major components of GNP by sector of
origin?such as industry, agriculture, and services?and by end
use?such as consumption, investment, and government spending,
including defense.
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Table 1
USSR: GNP Growth by Sector of Origin, 1951-87
Percent
1951.65b
1966.75?
1976-80 b
1981.85b
1986
1987
Total GNP
5.1
3.9
1.9
1.8
4.0
1.3
Industry
7.9
5.8

2.4
2.0
. _
2.7
. _
3.1
._
Ferrous metals
8.8
_ .
4.7
1.0
0.8
3.3
_ _
L6
Nonferrous metals
8.9
6.7
1.5
2.0
3.0
1.9
Fuel
8.4
5.3
3.1
0.9
3.5
1.9
Electric power
17.0
7.5
4.5
3.1
3.6
4.1
Machinery
' 7.3
6.7
3.0
2.0
2.9
3.7
Chemicals
11.0
8.3
. 3.0
3.8
4.8
.
2.6
Wood. pulp, and paper
5.1
2.6
-0.4
1.9
4.6
4.5
Construction Materials
12.2
5.7 .
0.9
1.8
4.0
3.4
Light industry
6.2
4.5
2.4
1.6
1.4
1.7
Food industry
8.4
5.0
1.4
1.8
-4.9
3 6
Other industry
7.9
5.8
2.4
2.0
2.7
3.1
Construction
8.8
4.8
-0.1
1.1
3.8
2.4
Agriculture
3.0
0.5
0.2
1.2
10.3
-4.0
Transportation
11.5
6.8
3.6
2.2
3.0
1.2
Communications
7.7
7.5
4.7
3.9
5.5
6.8
r rade
7.8
5.9
2.7
1.8
0.4
2.1
Services
3.6
3.7
2.6
2.2
2.2
3.2
_
Housing
3.8
2.8
1.1
7.6
./.7
2.9
Utilities
7.5
5.3
4.9
4.9
4.4
4.2
Repair and personal care
5.0
6.0
4.8
3.9
4.0
7.0
Recreation
8.7
3.0
1.7
1.2
-0.3
0.8
Education
3.9
3.0
1.2
1.5
7.3
3.0
Health
4.4
3.1
1.4
1.7
1.5
3.0
Science
9.3
6.2
3.4
1.5
1.3
3.3
Credit and insurance
-0.4
5.7
4.3
0.8
-1.3
0.6
Government administration
-1.6
4.4
2.9
1.5
1.5
1.7
Military personnel
-0.5
2.6
1.6
0.9
0.4
0.0
Other branches
5.1
3.9
1.9
1.8
4.0
1.3
3 Based on value added at 1982 factor cost.
h Average annual. In this and the following tables, average annual
rates of growth are calculated as compound rates of change from
the year immediately before the start of the period specified to the
last year of the period.
4
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'
Industry, traditionally a major source of growth in the
Soviet economy, contributed heavily to the slide in
GNP growth during the past decade. Average annual
rates of increase in industrial production fell from 5.8
percent during 1966-75 to 2.1 percent in 1976-82 but
picked up slightly in 1983-87.
5
The decadelong slowdown of growth has frustrated
Moscow's efforts to overtake the United States in the
production of goods and services. Soviet GNP, wii;ch
rose from roughly 35 percent of the US level in 1950
to nearly 60 percent in 1975, currently is about 55
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percent of US GNP. The USSR's progress toward
achieving Western standards of living also has stalled
in the last decade, although it has maintained its
status as a military superpower.
Competition for Resources. Competition intensified
among the major claimants on GNP?investment,
defense, and consumption?as Soviet economic
growth slowed after the mid-1970s. Through 1987,
however, Moscow's priorities appeared to change lit-
tle. as the shares of GNP allocated to these claimants
remained much the same?in current prices?after
1970.'
Planners allowed the rate of investment growth to
slow markedly after 1975. Annual rates of increase in
investment slipped from an average of 4.8 percent per
year during 1966-75. to 2.4 percent.during 1976-85..
Gorbachev's modernization campaign raised invest-
ment growth in 1986. but the faster pace was not
sustained in 1987 (see table 2). Rates of increase in
the machinery component of investment also declined
as the growth of machinery output fell, even though
imports helped cushion the impact on investment of
shortfalls in domestic production
The growth of defense spending decreased from an
average of about 5 percent per year from 1965 to
1975 to less than 2 percent annually from 1975 to
1987, roughly paralleling the slowdown in overall
economic growth. This trend in defense outlays.re-
fleeted primarily a leveling off in procurement of
weapons (currently about half of all military expendi-
tures) during the late 1970s and early 1980s. Still, the
'These ratios represent the geometric mean of a comparison using
US market prices (dollars) as weights and another comparison using
Soviet established price weights (rubles). The base year for both the
dollar and the ruble price weights is 1982. Each country's GNP
appears smaller when weighted by its own prices because each
produces relatively larger quantities of goods that are relatively
cheaper in terms of its own resources. Comparisons in both sets of
prices are valid, but the geometric mean provides a convenient
single estimate of proportion. See CIA Reference Aid. Handbook
of Economic Statistics, 1988 (CPAS 88-10001, September 1988),
p. 32.
' Priorities in allOcating resources are assessed using GNP valued at
current factor cost?rather than the constant 1982 values used in
estimating growth?because decisions about spending generally
reflect the resource trade-offs in effect at. the time. Factor cost
values are used because they give a more accurate picture of the
relative costs of economic resources than established prices do.
share of defense spending in GNP rose slightly?
when both are measured in current prices?as prices
of military output increased faster than prices of
civilian goods.
The standard of living of the population-continued to
rise, but the rate of improvement slowed markedly
after 1975. Annual growth of per capita consumption
averaged 1.3 percent during 197.6-87, down from 3.3
percent during 1966-75. As a result, the level of per
capita consumption in the USSR fell further behind
that in the United States and other major Western
countries.
Soviet food consumption grew more slowly than con-
sumption of services and'other goods. Although this is
typical in countries with rising standards of living,
improvements in the availability of foodsupplies were
disappointing nonetheless. Continuing problems in
agriculture affected consumers, as poor harvests de-
pressed gains in consumption of food (after a lag of a
year or two). In fact, until Gorbachev began his
campaign against drinking in 1985, alcoholic bever-
ages registered some of the fastest increases in food
consumption (including beverages). In 1986-87, how-
ever, the impact of a sharp drop in alcohol supplies
was softened by substantial increases in consumption
of food other than beverages..
Results of Move to New Price Base
The shift in the price base for our GNP estimates
implies that the Soviet economy experienced inflation
at an average rate of a little over 2 percent per year
between 1970 and 1982. This rate is calculated by
dividing the current value of total GNP in 1982 by
the same quantity of output valued in 1970 prices and
computing the average annual rate of change in the
resulting price index.
In addition, our estimates of Soviet GNP growth in
1982 prices differ in two important ways from esti-
mates in 1970 prices. First, rates of real growth are
lower for total GNP and most major components.
This result, which reflects the "index number effect,"
is to be expected when prices of a more recent year
6
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Table 2
USSR: GNP Growth by End Use, 1951-87 ,
Percent
1951-65 b
1966-75"
1976-8012
1981.85b
1986
1987
Total GNP
5.1
3.9
1.9
1.8
4.0
1.3
Consumption
4.6
4.4
2.5
2.0
1.7
2.7
Consumer goods
4.4
4.6
2.4
1.8
1.3
2.3
Food
3.8
3.8
1.5
1.3
-0.9
1.7
Animal products
4.2
4.6
1.3
1.8
3.7
5.8
Processed foods
7.9
3.4
3.5
1.2
4.2
Basic foods
1.5
1.3
0.8
2.0
5.4
-0.3
Beverages
7.8
6.0
2.6
-1.9
-30.6
-10.3
Soft goods
7.1
5.9
3.7
2.2
3.2
1.3
Durables
12.3
10.6
6.3
3,9
11.6
6.5
Consumer services
5.0
4.0
2.7
2.5
7.5
3.4
Investment
9.6
4.8
2.1
2.6
5.4
1.2
New fixed investment c
9.5
4.8
1.7
1.8
6.6
0.6
Machinery and equipment
11.5
8.2
6.5
4.6
6.9
1.3
Construction and other
8.4
4.9
-1.1
1.7
4.9
2.9
Capital repair
10.3
4.8
3.9
2.1
1.2
3.6
Other government outlays
2.4
1.4
-0.7
-1.1
11.2
- 4.1
Government administration
-1.6
4 d
2.9
1.5
1.5
1.1
Research and development
9.3
6.2
3.4
1.5
1.3
3.3
Outlays n.e.c. d
1.7
-0.3
-3.3
-3.5
21.5
-9.8
1 Based on 1982 factor cost.
b Average annual.
c Besides the line items shown, new fixed investment includes net
additions to livestock, for which growth is not shown because swings
between negative and positive values make rates of change difficult
to interpret.
In this and the following tables, n.e.c. is the abbreviation for not
elsewhere classified.
are used to calculate growth rates (see inset). In
converting estimates of US GNP from 1972 prices to
1982 prices, for example, the Department of Com-
merce found lower rates of growth for the United
States when later-year prices were used. Second,
shares of key components in GNP have changed
because these components experienced different rates
both of real growth and of price change.
Shifting the price base from 1970 to 1982 has reduced
annual rates of increase of GNP by a few tenths of a
percentage point in the 1980s (see table 3). The
7
differences are a little larger-more than half a
percentage point-in the 1970s. Like real growth
rates of total GNP, rates estimated for most key
producing sectors are also lower when the new price
base is used, although there are exceptions.
The shares of Soviet GNP originating in the two
largest producing sectors-industry and agriculture-
have changed as a result of the shift to a new price
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The "Index Number Effect"
Measured economic growth is likely to be lower, the
more recent the price base used in the calCulation.
Consider an example, in which we are to estimate
real growth in the output of precision instruments-a
group of products ranging from clocks to automation
equipment to computers. Depending on the base year
chosen, the relative prices of individual products in
this group will differ because of differences in tech-
nology, scale of production. and input costs. In
particular, the prices of the products whose quantities
are growing fastest-like computers-tend to fall
relative to other prices because of more rapid gains
from advances in technology and economies of scale.
Moreover, purchasers of precision instruments at-
tempt to increase their use of products that are
becoming relatively cheaper-to the extent possible,
given the inflexibility and chronic shortages of the
Soviet supply system. ?
Product
1970
Price
1970
Quantity
1982
Price
1982
Quantity
Clocks
10
200
20
300
Automation
equipment
20
100
30
250
Computers
30
50
35
200
Therefore, the fastest growing products will have
smaller weights-and hence less impact on average
growth of the group-when the prices of a later base
year are used to calculate real output than they
would if an earlier base year were used.
Price
Weights
Quantity Index (1970 = 100)
1970
(10x300)
+ (20x250)
+ (30x200)
14000
(10x200)
+ (20x100)
+ (30x50) =
5500=
255
1982
(20x300)
+ (30x250)
+ (35x200)
20500
(20x200)
+ (30x100)
+ (35x50) =
8750=
234
Table 3
USSR: GNP Growth in 1970
and 1982 Prices, 1951-84
Percent average annual rates
1951-60
1961-70
1971-80
1981-84
Total GNP
1970
5.6
5.2
3.2
2.4
1982
5.2
4.9
2.4
2.0
Industry
2.8
1970
9.2
6.5
4.7
1982
8.6
6.3
4.0
2.0
Construction
1970 ?
11.2
5.5
3.7
1.9
1982 ?
10.8
5.2
1.0
0.8
Agriculture
1970
3.8
3.2
-0.9
2.7
1982
3.1
3.1
-1.1
2.5
Transportation
1970
11.8
7.8
5.0
2.1
1982
12.3
8.5
5.1
2.1
Communications
1970
7.6
8.0
65
4.4
1982
7.9
8.0
5.5
3.7
Trade
1970
9.0
5.9
3.8
2.3
1982
9.3
6.0
3.7
1.9
Services
1970
2.8
4.2
3.1
2.1
1982
3.2
4.4
3.0
2.2
Military personnel
1970
-4.3
3.8
1.9
0.2
1982
-1.7
2.6
1.7
1.1
Other branches
1970
5.6
5.2
3.2
2.4
1982
5.2
4.9
2.4
2.0
a Based on value added at factor cost of the base year shown.
Differences in growth rates reflect changes in methods of estima-
tion-for example, in the procedures used to convert established
prices to factor cost-as well as in the price base. The change in the
price base, however, is generally the most important source of these
differences.
8
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Table 4
USSR: Changes in Shares of Major
Sectors of Origin as Result of
Shift in Price Base, 1970-82-,
Percent shares
Estimates for 19/0
Estimates for 1982
1970 Prices
1970 Prices 1982 Prices
Total GNP
100.0
100.0
100.0
Industry
32.0
36.8
3/.4
Construction
7.3
7.6
7.8
Agriculture
21.1
14.3
20.6
Transportation
8.7
10.4
9.5
Communications
0.9
1.2
0.9
Trade
7.3
7.7
6.5
Services
20.5
20.2
20.1
Military personnel
1.9
1.6
1.9
Other branches
0.3
0.3
0.3
Based on value added at factor cost of the base year shown.
Differences in shares reflect changes in methods of estimation-- for
example, in the procedures used to convert established prices to
factor cost-as well as in the price base The change in the price
base, however, is generally the most important source of these
differences.
base (see table 4). The real growth of industry from
1970 to 1982 was faster than that of total GNP, as
can be seen from the increase in industry's share of
GNP with prices held constant (first and second
columns of table 4, or table 3). On the other hand,
inflation in industry was less than in the rest of the
economy, as shown by the decline in industry's share
of GNP in 1982 when the price base changes (second
and third columns of table 4). In agriculture, in
contrast, real output grew only slightly, but increases
in resource inputs and in costs of producing farm
output were steep.
Methods of Estimation
In estimating Soviet GNP, the CIA attempts to
replicate as closely as possible the measures familiar
to users of the economic statistics of the United States
and other Western countries. This attempt is compli-
cated, however, by the Soviet government's traditional
reluctance to divulge information readily available in
the West. Even without this complication, differences
in the statistical systems of planned and market
9 ,
economies would make it difficult to find for the
USSR all of the same kinds of data that are published
in Western countries. Soviet data are oriented primar-
ily toward supplies of output by producers, for exam-
ple, while many of the basic data for measures of US
GNP reflect demands for output by consumers, inves-
tors, and other purchasers.
The essential features of our methods of estimating
Soviet GNP in 1982 prices are summarized in this
section. After an overview, the discussion proceeds
along the lines illustrated in figure 2. The estimation
of base-year GNP in established prices is described
first, and our methods of adjusting these estimates to
factor cost are outlined :next-with special attention
to revisions in earlier. procedurei. Then 'our methods of
estimating GNP growth are reviewed. Because most
of these methods have not changed since being de-
scribed in detail in USSR: Measures, the discussion
here is limited to those components for which esti-
mates are based on new kinds of data and new
procedures.
Overview of Estimating Methods
The estimation of Soviet GNP involves two main
stages: (1) developing a comprehensive set of estimates
for the base year (1982) and (2) calculating growth
indexes from data on changes in the components of
GNP. The coverage of economic activity in the base
year is as complete as possible; the growth estimates,
however, depend on samples of products. The full
detail of the base-year estimates is not updated
annually because it requires painstaking searches of
Soviet journals and monographs, which rarely provide
data on an annual basis.
Base-Year GNP. In estimating Soviet GNP, we start
from the same concept used in the United States and
other Western countries: the total value of goods and
services sold to final purchasers during a given period
of time. Following Western conventions, output is
counted only once, at the time of final sale. Intermedi-
ate sales-for example, of iron ore, rolled steel, and
automobile chassis-are excluded from GNP because
the value of the products is reflected in subsequent
sales to final purchasers-in this example, of
automobiles.
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Base-year estimates are made for total GNP and its
components by category of end use and by sector of
origin. The end-use breakdown shows the distribu-
tion of output to final purchasers for uses such as
consumption, investment, and government spending,
including defense. In the breakdown of GNP by
sector of origin, income resulting from the produc-
tion of final output is allocated among sectors such
as industry, agriculture, and services.' This income?or
value added?consists of the earnings of labor and
capital?the primary factors of production?including
depreciation, but excluding intermediate purchases.
'Throughout this paper, the coverage of the industrial sector
matches that used in Soviet official statistics. It comprises mining,
manufacturing, and utilities as the scope of those activities is
understood in the United States.
10
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- zw,Iii4Z
,?..
_yli? sr-4,-
4,....tt
_ ? .s.,..t..... .- ? ?
,e..4-00,...,. 4 * -.?,?"-4,.? , .r.e.:1:,.,
.!Piir:".F!"7:44?44:.,.. ..e...-i'..ff.-44-44:
_
' 1.....e:;.! 4.-41;:it.1,??..--;:fet'. : .,...."'r'j'*rA-JI,j;'jz.-',4*::-:zril;;;..':"._?:..t.;'Nf.":44"*"..''?'::z4::t:v:':"
eS? ?,, '7,t2.:
-???? ''''''''''...7".112.."...' s . 1.- 'VA ''''''''' 'S"-.. -.7.'0,44...,,-. w4i.44.24,F. r!'..,,,,,...4 ?
.,.:., ,',-, -...4e.: E:: ;.11.1.-..?2,17"*..:.4.1-,:*..:6. ...,......_.,.*,:."......." , i4(..7:,' ,.?.1 .,6.:!.:".i r.,..r4',,f,-.6.2,. .':"': ?,Z
;4i''255*:'ki.`i l:...
e ...;.-.,..4 --?..tg ... :. .t4,?; .:,- ,f,CC.e.:r.. . ..r .,'?'?,'7,1.._'...F''0.'.?.'.4'.1.-..?.E.S,.:_i.e
j , 1.r%5 1, w
. .F. ,
::.
'
. .
...:.+.1....-...::%11.. .
' ,1ip:1.6:iY,1;Po:
?1,4'2-S341
. ....' '
43:
......mr
e:
Total value added by sector of origin is identical to
total GNP by end use because (see figure 3):
? Standard accounting procedures make the sum of
all gross output produced in the economy?includ-
ing intermediate sales?equal to the sum of all
income generated in production?including inter-
mediate purchases.
? The sum of intermediate sales excluded from GNP
by end use reflects the same transactions as the sum
of intermediate purchases excluded from GNP by
sector of origin.
So the difference between total gross output and total
intermediate output?or total end use?matches the
difference between total gross income and total inter-
mediate input?or total value added.
11
Base-year estimates of GNP are valued initially in
Soviet established prices, which are the actual prices
paid by final purchasers. These prices, however, have
several shortcomings that prevent them from reflect-
ing the allocation of economic resources accurately:
? Substantial turnover and other indirect taxes?
including import duties?are levied on selected
products, mainly consumer goods such as automo-
biles, clothing, and alcohol.
.? Subsidies keep prices artificially low for basic con-
sumer needs like bread, meat and dairy products,
and housing.
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? Reported profits are an unreliable indicator of the
contribution of capital to production because they
reflect arbitrary margins set by officials in charge of
central price formation, rather than competitive
market conditions.
Therefore, in an attempt to approximate better the
value of resources used in production and allocated to
end uses, we adjust our estimates of Soviet GNP from
established prices to factor cost. The goal of this
adjustment is to make value added in each major
sector of origin reflect as closely as possible that
sector's use of labor and capital resources. Wages in
established prices are accepted without adjustment
because they are believed to reflect labor productivity
differences reasonably well (as explained below). Offi-
cial data on. enterprise depreciation payments also are,
accepted, largely because little alternative informa-
tion is available to measure wear and tear on the stock
of plant and equipment. But the rest of value added in
established prices?indirect taxes, subsidies (a nega-
tive entry), and profits-As not a good measure of
returns on capital. These elements are subtracted
from base-year estimates of value added in estab-
lished prices (or added in the case of subsidies), and
returns on fixed and working capital are added back.
The rate of return is assumed to be uniform in all
sectors at 12 percent, intended to reflect capital
productivity (as explained below). Finally, the effects
of the factor cost adjustment on GNP estimates by
sector of origin are traced through the production
process to the end-use side of GNP.'
GNP Growth. Base-year estimates of Soviet GNP at
factor cost are used as weights for estimates of GNP
growth.' First, indexes of growth are estimated for the
major components of GNP. In principle, the growth of
total GNP then can be calculated as a weighted
'Estimates of GNP by end use are adjusted to factor cost with the
aid of an input-output table, which shows linkages similar to those
illustrated in figure 3. These linkages make it possible to determine
not only the direct effects of changes in estimates of value added in.
say, metallurgy, but also the indirect effects of such changes on
output of machinery and other sectors using metals as inputs.
'Factor cost weights are preferred for most analytical purposes, but
estimates in established prices also are used as weights for some
calculations of growth. Consumption trends should be analyzed in
established prices, for example, to reflect choices among goods and
services available to consumers and to compare purchases with
consumers' incomes.
average of growth of the components either by sector
of origin or by end use. In practice, total GNP growth
is determined by the sector-of-origin estimates (see
figure 4).9 We believe this approach produces the
more reliable results because GNP by end use in-
cludes some components?notably changes in inven-
tories and strategic reserves?for which growth is
particularly difficult to estimate)" With total GNP
growth determined on the sector-of-origin side, the
growth of the residual category of end use (outlays not
elsewhere classified) includes any changes in the
statistical discrepancy between sector-of-origin and
end-use estimates.
In estimating growth by sector of origin, we seek to
capture trends in real value added. If the necessary
data are available, real value added should be calcu-
lated at a residual?that is, by subtracting intermedi-
ate inputs in constant prices from gross output in
constant prices. Because information on the growth of
intermediate inputs is limited, however, such a calcu.
lation of the growth of value added is feasible only for
agriculture. Growth estimates for the other sectors of
origin are based on proxies for value added:
? Gross output for industry, transportation, and trade
? Labor inputs for many services?including educa-
tion, health, and all government services.
? Intermediate inputs for construction.
Base-Year GNP in Established Prices
The first step in the derivation of base-year (1982)
estimates of Soviet GNP in established prices is the
construction of a set of four basic accounts showing
the incomes and outlays resulting from the economy's
current production of goods and services." Following
? In this paper, the term "growth" can refer to estimates in the form
either of index numbers (set equal to 100 in the base year) or of
annual rates of increase or decrease (in percent). In our calculations
of total GNP growth, for example, indexes for each sector of origin
are multiplied by sectoral value added in the base year. and the
resulting values in constant prices are summed. Indexes and annual
rates of change of GNP are then calculated from these values.
'? Inventory change is included in the investment category of base.
year GNP. Because we do not have enough data to estimate
inventory change every year, however, this item is part of the
residual category of end use in our estimates of GNP growth.
"See appendix B for tables of the basic accounts for 1982.
including their derivation.
12
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a scheme initially developed by Abram Bergson,
incomes and outlays are estimated separately for
households and the public sector.? In the USSR, the
public sector performs many functions that would be
carried out privately in market economies. It includes
state enterprises, collective farms, and other producer
and consumer cooperatives, as well as government and
other institutions funded by the state budget.
State enterprises, collective farms, and other producer
cooperatives perform functions similar to those of the
business sector in the United States. They operate as
khozraschet (economically accountable) units, pro-
ducing goods and services. Usually, they are expected
'See his Soviet National Income and Product in 1937 (New York.
Columbia University Press, 1953). chapter 2; and, with Hans
Heymann, Jr.. Soviet National Income and Product. 1940-48 (New
York: Columbia University Press. 1954), chapter 2.
13 .
to earn enough income from selling their output to
cover current operating costs and a portion of invest-
ment costs. Institutions funded by the state budget
perform functions similar to those of the US govern-
ment. In contrast to khozraschet units, they receive
all of their income as grants and provide services at no
charge, or at nominal prices.
Basic Income and Outlay Accounts. To estimate the
breakdown of GNP by sector of origin, each type of
income must be distributed among the sectors in
which it is earned (see figure Incomes of house-
holds consist mainly of wages and salaries, net income
from agriculture, and earnings from privately provid-
ed services. Public-sector incomes include social insur-
ance charges, profits, turnover and other indirect
taxes, subsidies, and depreciation.
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5
?
r
74.
?
. . ,
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'
IJ
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Household and public-sector outlays?on consumer
goods and services, imestment, and government ser-
vices?form the basis for the breakdown of GNP by
end use. The difference between total GNP and the
identified items in these categories constitutes the
residual category of end use-- outlays not elsewhere
classified (n.e.c.). These outlays include a portion of
defense spending, exports net or imports, unidentified
outlays, and a statistical discrepancy.
End-Use Residual. The CIA's estimates of total
expenditures on defense are independent of the GNP
accounts; the sources of data used in estimating GNP
contain almost no information about defense. The
value of outlays n.e.c. in the end-use residual includes
part of defense spending but is too small to cover all of
it. We consider it likely that several other categories
of GNP by end use include military as well as civilian
outlays on goods and services. These categories are
investment?including new construction, new ma-
chinery, and capital repair?research and develop-
ment, and miscellaneous consumer and government
services."
Also in the end-use residual, exports and imports are
valued at what the Soviets call foreign trade prices?
prices prevailing on world markets, converted to ru-
bles at official exchange rates. Except for the arbi-
trary nature of Soviet exchange rates, this valuation
of trade matches that recommended by the United
Nations for its System of National Accounts. Strictly
speaking, our estimates of "GNP" actually reflect
gross domestic product (GDP) because payments for
labor and capital services exchanged with other coun-
tries are not included in exports and imports. Pay-
ments of this kind are thus far of little consequence,
however, so differences between GNP and GDP are
probably small."
" For further discussion of the relationship between the CIA's
estimates of defense spending and GNP. see CIA Research Paper.
Soviet Gross National Product in Current Prices, 1960-80 (SOV
83-10037, March 1983), pp. 3. 13. 24.
We are studying the feasibility of developing estimates of GNP
proper. To estimate GNP. payments to Soviet nationals (and the
government) of wages and salaries earned abroad and returns on
capital invested abroad would have to be added to GDP. Similarly,
payments to foreign nationals of wages, salaries, and returns on
capital earned inside the USSR's borders would have to be
subtracted.
Determination of Total GNP. The total value of GNP
in the base year is derived by consolidating the four
basic income and outlay accounts. In principle, be-
cause total incomes must equal total outlays by
definition, this consolidation could be done by adding
either incomes or outlays of households and the public
sector. except for transfers.''
In practice, our estimates of household ou?la!,s and
public-sector incomes --which are judged more reli-
able than estimates of household incomes and public-
sector outlays?provide the control total for GNP
overall. The coverage of household outlays appears
reasonably complete, while the coverage of household
incomes is known to be incomplete. Estimates of
public-sector incomes are subject to some uncertainty.
especially in the case of miscellaneous budget reve-
nues. But the difficulties of estimating public-sector
outlays?without knowing how much )f total defense
spending (estimated independently of GNP) is con-
cealed in investment and other civilian categories arl
how much is included in outlays n.e.c.--are even
greater.
Imputations. Like GNP accounts for the United
States, our estimates of Soviet GNP include imputed
values for several kinds of output that are not ex-
changed through the usual buyer-seller channels and
would not otherwise be assigned monetary values The
principal imputations cover:
? Agricultural production consumed and invested in
kind?farm consumption of home-produced food
and changes in private livestock inventories-- -valued
at average selling prices.
? Subsistence rations of food and clothing given t.)
members of the armed forces and valued at state
retail prices.
? The rental value of owner-occupied housing, with
the average rent on state housing applied to private
housing.
Transfers. such as pensions, are reallocations of income between
households and lie public sector. They are excluded from GNP
because they do not reflect current production of final goods and
services. (Current provision for future pensions is included in GNP.
however. in the form of social insurance payments by employers.)
16
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? Construction of private housing by owners, with
owners' labor implicitly valued at the same wage
rate as labor hired for such construction.
Sources of Data. In general, our methods of estimat-
ing 1982 GNP in established prices are the same as
those used for 1970 GNP in established prices.'' The
availability and quality of the evidence for the 1982
estimates are fairly good, in our view, but somewhat
short of the 1970 standard. Data on many GNP
components are obtained directly from official Soviet
statistical publications, and estimates based on these
data continue to be reliable. For other components,
however?especially budgetary incomes and outlays
on privately provided services?estimates must be
pieced together from Soviet monographs and journal
articles, which do not always give information for the
desired year and-definition and often are inconsistent.
Contribution of Second Economy. The "second econ-
omy" in the USSR inclbdes a variety of private and
illegal or questionably legal activities, some of which
contribute to GNP while others do not. The full scope
of the USSR's second economy, according to Gregory
Grossman's definition, is broad:
As some scholars define it, the second economy
comprises all production and exchange activity
that fulfills at least one of the two following
tests: (a) being directly for private gain; (b) being
in some significant respect in knowing contra-
vention of existing law."
To facilitate international comparisons, Soviet GNP
should include the full range of economic activities ?
measured in GNP statistics for Western countries.
This standard calls for the inclusion of all legal
private production and also of activities that are
illegal or tightly restricted in the USSR but not in the
West. Activities that would be considered crimes-in
any country should be excluded, following Western
practice. It is often difficult, however, to draw the line
For details of the estimation of 1970 GNP in established prices,
see USSR: Measures. pp. 125-161; and CIA Research Aid, USSR:
Gross National Product Accounts. 1970(A(ER) 75-76. November
1975).
'"The 'Second Economy' in the USSR," Problems of Communism
(September-October 1977): p. 25.
17
between activities that are illegal because of the
USSR's political and economic system and activities
that would be illegal in the West, where laws differ
among countries.''
Our base-year estimates of Soviet GNP in 1982 cover
most of the second economy's activities that, as best
we can determine, should be included, but problems of
acquiring the necessary data prevent full coverage."
These estimates include all of the legal private pro-
duction we can identify in agriculture and housing.
Some undercounting of this production is possible,
however, if there are gaps in the official Soviet data
on which the estimates are based. In addition, GNP
includes a wide variety of privately provided services
that are legal in the West, without distinction as to ?
which are classified as legal or illegal by the Soviet
authorities. The coverage of repair and personal care
services?estimated from information in Soviet mono-
graphs and press and journal articles?is uncertain
but probably somewhat low. Estimates of privately
provided health and education services are based on
sparse information and may be understated.
In our judgment, GNP should include any increases
in output available to final purchasers as a result of
the diversion of state resources?such as the construc-
tion of private housing using materials stolen from
state enterprises. z? Some private activities involving
'' For discussions of the treatment of illegal activities in US GNP,
see Carol S. Carson. "The Underground Economy: An Introduc-
tion," Survey of Current Business (May 1984): pp. 22-24. continued
in Survey of Current Business (July 1984): pp. 106-109: Edward F.
Denison, "Is U.S. Growth Understated Because of the Under-
ground Economy? Employment Ratios Suggest Not," Review of
Income and Wealth (March 1982): pp. 2-4; and George Jaszi, "The
Conceptual Basis of the Accounts: A Reexamination," in Confer-
ence on Research in Income and Wealth. A Critique of the United
States Income and Product Accounts, Studies in Income and
Wealth. Vol. 22 (Princeton: Princeton ?Nba. i)Jbl. P.
143.
"For a detailed discussion of the extent to which the second
economy is covered in earlier CIA estimates of Soviet GNP, see
Gertrude E. Schroeder and Rush V. Greenslade, "On the Measure-
ment of the Second Economy in the USSR," ACES Bulletin
(Spring 1979): pp. 3-21.
" Activities that do not add to legal production of goods and
services for final use should he excluded, however. For example,
theft of goods from state retail inventories for consumption by the
thief represents a transfer rather than an addition to GNP. (If
inventories are measured after such theft has occurred, however,
both inventories and GNP will be understated unless the value of
the theft is estimated and added back.)
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such diversion are reflected in our estimates of GNP,
but others are not. Private housing built with stolen
materials is included to whatever (unknown) extent it
is captured in official Soviet investment statistics. On
the other hand; most illegal production of consumer
goods probably is missed in our estimates. Such
production is counted if it is sold through state retail
outlets, but most of it probably is sold privately.
Comparison With US Methods. Although we strive to
match US practice as closely as possible in construct-
ing base-year esiii.Lcs u: So,i. G7,:r. some differ-
ences cannot be avoided. The basic framework of our
breakdowns by type of income and by end use is.
similar to that used in the US national income and
product accounts (see figure 6).2 Definitions of many
individual components differ, however, largelyte-
cause of the major differences between economic
systems and institutions in the two countries."'
Most of the components of Soviet GNP by type of
income reflect institutional arrangements that differ
considerably from those in the United States. Wages
and social insurance, which are essentially similar in
both countries, are the exception. Several other com-
ponents of Soviet GNP by type of income?profits,
indirect taxes, subsidies, and depreciation?are
roughly similar in concept to the corresponding US
categories. The fiscal and financial systems on which
the relative sizes of these components depend, how-
ever, are very different in the two countries.
For still other types of income, institutional differ-
ences have even greater effects. Because of restric-
tions on private ownership in the USSR, Soviet GNP
includes only a fraction of the earnings in the US
21 Estimates of GNP by sector of origin are also available for the
United States, and in much greater detail than for the USSR.
These estimates, however, do not play a key role in determining the
real growth of total US GNP. which reflects a weighted average of
the growth of components by end use, rather than by sector of
origin.
u For more information on how the major categories of US and
Soviet GNP compare, see CIA Research Paper, USSR: Toward a
Reconciliation of Marxist and Western Measures of National
Income (ER 78-10505. October 19781. Comparisons of these cate-
gories are also discussed in USSR: Measures. pp. 30-32: and in
CIA. USSR: Gross National Product Ai-counts, 1970. pp. 13-14.
categories for proprietors' income and rental income
of persons. Moreover, interest is not included in Soviet
GNP in established prices, except to the extent that
payments into the state budget for the use of capital
are reflected in budgetary income.
Several components of Soviet GNP by end use also
differ in coverage from the corresponding categories
of US GNP. Because nearly all health and education
are provided by the government in the USSR, we
group these services with consumption in Soviet GNP.
The publicly provided portion of these services would
be counted as government spending in the United
States.'" The government also administers a large
share of investment in the USSR, and the investment
category of Soviet GNP includes government expendi-
tures on social infrastructure such as housing, utili-
ties, highways, airports, schools, and health facilities.
In US GNP, the investment category includes only
private spending; government purchases of capital
goods as well as less durable items are considered part
of government spending.
Our estimates of the capital repair component of
Soviet GNP include some expenditures that would be
considered intermediate rather than final uszs of
output?and therefore would be excluded from
GNP?in the United States. From Soviet data on
capital repair, it is nearly impossible to establish a
boundary between routine maintenance of the capital
stock, which should be counted as a cost of current
operations, and major repairs, which are included
correctly in investment used to replace aging plant
and equipment. Similarly, Soviet outlays on research
and development include some activities that would be
charged to current operating expenses in the United
States. Government-funded research and development
is considered final output in both countries, but
privately financed activities, like other business ex-
penses, are excluded from US GNP.
" In GNP accounts for both the USSR and the United States,
government services are valued at the cost of the labor and
materials used to provide them. Private consumer services are more
widely available in the United States, however, at prices that
include profits as well as costs. The share of state-provided
consumer services in Soviet GNP would rise if some of these
services were valued at prices higher than costs.
18
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e..7
Factor Cost Adjustment of Base-Year GNP
Prices are set administratively in the USSR and often
are used more to further various government poli-
cies?sometimes with conflicting objectives?than to
promote efficiency in production and exchange Retail
prices of consumer "luxuries" like alcohol and auto-
mobiles, for example, include large turnover taxes
that are a major source of revenue for the state. On
the other hand, retail prices of "necessary" consumer
19
goods and services, such as staple foods and housing,
have not been raised officially for decades. Because
production costs have risen, large subsidies?about
20 percent of the state budget?are now required to
maintain such low prices. Wholesale prices of energy
and many basic industrial materials, moreover, have
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been kept low by restricting profit margins, in order
to hold down costs for sectors using these products
as inputs.
Valuation of GNP. Ideally, GNP should be valued in
prices that reflect the preferences of final consumers?
or perhaps of central planners in the USSR?and that
encourage the efficient use of inputs in production."
Actual prices in all countries fall short of these theoret-
ical standards for measuring resource allocation and
economic growth. In the West, the usual convention is
to accept market prices as close enough to the stan-
dards for purposes of estimating GNP. Sometimes
GNP is also valued at factor cost?that is, at market
prices excluding indirect taxes and subsidies. ?
In examining Soviet pricing practices, Abram Berg-
son considered these exclusions insufficient, by them-
selves, because established prices did not adequately
reflect the cost of capital. He therefore devised the
adjusted factor cost standard to provide an improved
basis for measuring the Soviet economy's potential to
produce goods and services? The basic premise of his
approach is that output prices reflecting the costs of
economic resources can be calculated if inputs of the
primary factors of production?labor, capital, and
land?are valued in proportion to their average pro-
ductivities. Bergson has demonstrated that these ad-
justed factor costs (hereafter, simply factor costs)
provide appropriate weights for estimating changes in
production potential despite inefficiencies that keep
output from reaching its maximum level. Strictly
speaking, however, the preferences of final users are
not reflected in factor cost values."
" For a list of Western articles on the theory of valuing national
income. see USSR: Measures. p. 34.
" See his Soviet National Income and Product in 1937, chapters 3
and 4; The Real National Income of Soviet Russia Since 1928
(Cambridge. Mass.: Harvard University Press. 1964 chapters 3, 8,
and 9; and. with Hans Heymann, Jr., Soviet National Income and
Product. 1940-48, chapter 3.
? The typical interpretation of Western measures of economic
growth?weighted by market prices--is that they reflect changes in
consumer welfare. This interpretation cannot be applied to estimates
of Soviet GNP at factor cost because the adjustment procedure does
not attempt to take consumers' or planners' preferences into account.
(See Bergson, The Real National Income of Soviet Russia. pp. 36-
39. 115-117.) Bergson has examined trends in welfare by estimating
consumption in what he calls adjusted market prices, but he has not
extended those calculations to other end uses of GNP. (See The Real
National Income of Soviet Russia, chapter 10.)
Still, there are problems with the Soviet price system?
especially its rules for pricing new products?that the
factor cost adjustment does not address. Wholesale
prices of machinery and other goods with frequently
changing specifications often include exaggerated price
increments for minor improvements in quality. This
may well contribute to an overstatement of the prices
of machinery relative to those of other products? In
the words of a prominent Soviet advocate of economic
reform, "Prices for machines, industrial equipment,
and the entire range of manufactured consumer goods
are too high.""
In addition, the factor cost adjustment does not neces-
sarily result in market-clearing prices. Neither does it
indicate appropriate valuations for the activities of the
second economy that are encouraged by chronic imbal-
ances between supply and demand? For example, the
artificially low prices of many consumer goods in state
retail stores often lead to the resale of such goods on
black markets at sharply higher prices.
Adjustment of GNP by Sector of Origin. Our current
procedures for adjusting 1982 Soviet GNP to factor
cost differ in some of the specifics from those used
previously to adjust 1970 GNP, but the basic approach
has not changed." As before, the adjustment begins
with an evaluation of how well the elements of value
added in established prices reflect the contributions of
the primary factors of production to GNP by sector of
origin.
According to Bergson's adjusted factor cost standard,
wage differences among sectors should reflect occupa-
tional differences in labor productivity and the job
"The pricing of new products also leads to disguised inflation in
some of the official Soviet data used in our estimates of growth,
particulary for machinery output (on the sector-of-origin side of
GNP) and machinery investment (on the end-use side). This inflation
is discussed below, in the section. "Reliability of Estimates of
Growth."
? Interview with Nikolay Shmelev by Viktor Loshak, Moscow News
(No. 50, 1988): p. 10.
? For a discussion of this point, see Vladimir G. Trent. "Notes on
Estimation of Second Economy Activities and National Income
Accounts" (manuscript. 1986), pp. 22-23.
" See appendix C for detailed tables of the results of the factor cost
adjustment.
. 20
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preferences of workers. The mobility of labor and the
flexibility of wage rates in the USSR appear suffi-
cient for wages in established prices to meet this
requirement reasonably well, except in the case of
military pay.''
Bergson has also recommended that charges for capi-
tal should consist of an allowance for depreciation,
plus interest calculated at a rate representing the
average productivity of capital in the economy. De-
preciation payments in established prices are accepted
without adjustment for our GNP estimates at factor
cost, largely because, as noted earlier, so little infor-
mation about wear and tear on capital is available."
As also mentioned above, however, reported profits
and the rest of value added in established prices do
not provide a good measure of returns on capital.
When prices are planned, profit rates are set arbitrari-
ly for enterprises operating on a profit-or-loss basis.
For institutions financed by the state budget, which
are common in the service sectors, there is no provi-
sion at all for profits. These pricing policies contribute
to wide variations among sectors in the relationship of
reported profits to stocks of capital. Turnover and
other indirect taxes and subsidies further widen the
gap between established prices and resource costs.
Moreover, the differentiated rates of many such taxes
and subsidies are a major source of divergence from
another requirement of the adjusted factor cost stan-
dard?that the price of a product should be the same
for all purchasers.
Our factor cost adjustment subtracts reported profits,
indirect taxes, and subsidies (initially entered with a
minus sign, so added as a result of the adjustment)
We adjust military pay to factor cost by revaluing conscripts'
incomes to reflect wages paid to civilian workers with roughly
similar skills. That is, we replace the monetary pay and subsistence
allowances of food and clothing actually received by conscripts with
wages at an assumed rate slightly higher than the minimum wage
for industrial workers. Incomes of military officers and other
nonconscript personnel are not adjusted because their pay seems
higher, if anything, than that of civilians for work of comparable
responsibility and difficulty.
" The exception to this statement is that we impute depreciation on
the stock of fixed capital in four service g'ectors: housing, education.
health, and science. This imputation is made because many of these
services are provided by institutions that are financed by the state
budget and thus do not make depreciation payments.
21
from the value added of each sector of origin in
established prices. Returns on capital?calculated at
a uniform rate on each sector's capital stock?are
added back." In these calculations:
? The rate of return is assumed to be 12 percent of
fixed and working capital?including unfinished
construction?the minimum rate set by Soviet plan-
ners for deciding that an investment project should
be funded.'
? Stocks of fixed capital are valued net of depreciation
because some sectors have older stocks than other
sectors. The assumption of a uniform rate of return
would not be strictly valid if age-related differences
in wear and tear were not taken into account."
" No returns are imputed on the capital stock of the government
administrative service sectors (general agricultural programs. for-
estry, state administration and social organizations, culture. munic-
ipal services, and civilian police). This exclusion improves the
comparability of our estimates with GNP statistics for Western
countries, which do not allow for returns on capital owned by the
government.
Furthermore, returns on capital are calculated at half of the
usual rate for the housing, education, health, and science sectors. In
the United States and other Western countries, returns on housing
often are lower than returns on business capital, partly because of
government policies encouraging individual ownership of homes.
Also, many education, health, and science services are provided by
the government, with no allowance for returns on government
capital.
An investment project that is approved for funding?for example,
a new factory?must generate enough savings in future operating
costs to pay back the outlays required to set it up. For most
industries, the profits that eventually result from such cost savings
are expected to cover state charges for the use of capital, interest on
bank loans, maintenance of enterprise funds for small investments.
and miscellaneous payments into the state budget. See Gosplan
SSSR. Metodicheskiye ukazaniya k razrabotke gosudarstvennykh
pianos' ekonomicheskogol sotsiarnogo razvitiya SSSR (Method-
ological Instructions for Working Out State Plans for the Economic
and Social Development of the USSR) (Moscow: Ekonomika,
1980), p. 441.
" In principle, capital stocks also should be revalued to reflect the
effects of the factor cost adjustment on the prices of plant and
equipment. We have not attempted such a revaluation because of a
lack of information about the effects of price changes on capital
stock values. A calculation of this kind was carried out, however, by
Richard Moorsteen and Raymond P. Powell in The Soviet Capital
Stock. 1928-1962 (Homewood. Ill.: Richard D. Irwin, 1966), pp.
256-257.
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These procedures for estimating returns on capital
differ from those used in our factor cost adjustment of
1970 GNP?' There, the total value of returns on
capital was assumed equal to the sum of the incomes
removed from GNP in established prices. This as-
sumption was dropped because it made the average
rate of return in the economy depend on Soviet
financial policies that are subject to change, such as
decisions about the role of turnover taxes and subsi-
dies in the state budget. Also, returns on capital in our
previous estimates were distributed by sector of origin
in proportion to gross sectoral capital stocks?before
deduction of accumulated depreciation?thus ignor-
ing the effects on returns of the proportion of service
life exhausted. The assumed value of the gross return
on capital in 1970 was equal to 18 percent of the gross
stock, or 24 percent of the stock net of depreciation.
According to Bergson, returns on superior land and
other natural resources also should be included in
GNP at factor cost. Although we have not yet
developed such estimates, we are examining possible
methods of doing so. Meanwhile, the omission of
returns on land reduces the shares of the agricultural,
housing, fuel, and metallurgical sectors in GNP.
Adjustment of GNP by End Use. A two-step proce-
dure is used to transfer the factor cost adjustment
from the sector-of-origin side of GNP to the end-use
side (see figure 7 on pages 24 and 24 First, some of
the indirect taxes and subsidies removed from value
added in established prim fall directly on specific end
uses of the products in question. These taxes (or
subsidies) are subtracted directly from (or added to)
the affected end uses.
Second, the indirect effects of substituting factor costs
for established prices in estimates of GNP by sector of
origin are calculated. For each sector, the change in
the resource cost of capital implies a change in the
price of output?and; at the same time, the change in
value added implies a change in the value of gross
output. The implied change in price?or gross out-
put?is calculated with the aid of an estimated 1982
input-output table, which shows sector-by-sector link-
ages from value added to gross output and then to end
use. Then this price change?in the form of a ratio for
the appropriate sector?is multiplied by estimates of
"See USSR: Measures, pp. 38-41, 163-168.
the end uses of the sector's output. (The latter esti-
mates, as already noted, are valued in established
prices after adjustment for the direct effects of taxes
and subsidies.)
Sources of Data. The factor cost adjustment requires
two basic kinds of estimates besides those made for
GNP in established prices: capital stock classified by
sector of origin and an input-output table. Estimates
of capital stock are taken largely from official Soviet
statistical yearbooks. Values of fixed capital including
depreciation?in prices said to be constant at 1973
levels?can be derived readily for most sectors. Fixed
capital net of depreciation is calculated from data on
the share of wear and tear in the value of gross 'capital
stock. Values of working capital and unfinished con-
struction?in current prices?are also given in official
yearbooks. This information is less detailed than data
on fixed capital, however; as a result, assumptions
have to be made about the distribution of these values
by sector. Still, our estimates of 1982 capital stock by
sector of origin are about as reliable as estimates for
1970.
The input-output table used in the factor cost adjust-
ment of 1982 GNP by end use is considerably less
detailed than the table used for 1970." Both tables are
based on estimates made by the Center for Interna-
tional Research of the US Bureau of the Census, but
the Soviet sources from which the new table is derived
give much less information than was available about
its predecessor."
For example, the input-output table used for the 1970 factor cost
adjustment was extended from the basic 1972 table to include
estimates of intermediate sales and purchases of services. Such
estimates have not been made for 1982 because the necessary
information is lacking. Our factor cost adjustment of end uses of
services in 1982 GNP, therefore, is not based on the calculations of
price changes described in the text above. Instead, the estimate of
end use of each service in established prices is adjusted by simply
adding or subtracting the ruble difference between value added at
factor cost and value added in established prices for the same
service as a sector of origin.
"The table used to estimate 1970 GNP at factor cost is derived as
described in USSR: Measurer (pp. 38-40, 163-168) from the 1972
table published in Dimitri M. Gallik, Barry L. Koetinsky, and
Vladimir G. Treml, Input-Output Structure al the Soviet Econo-
my: 1972, Foreign Economic Report No. 18 (US Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census, April 1983). For the 1982 input-
output table, see Jeanine Braithwaite, "The 1982 Seventeen Sector
Input-Output Table for the Soviet Union" (Center for International
Research, Soviet Branch Research Note, June 1987).
22
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Results of Adjustment. The factor cost adjustment
leads to some marked changes in the structure of
GNP by sector of origin and by end use. On the
sector-of-origin side, industry's share of total GNP is
much lower at factor cost than in established prices,
largely because almost all of the indirect taxes re-
moved by the adjustment apply to industrial products
(see table 5). The share of services, in contrast, is
considerably higher, primarily because many services
are heavily subsidized. Agriculture also has a larger
share of GNP at factor cost, reflecting its greater use
of capital than accounted for by reported profits. In
like manner, the cost of capital contributes to higher
shares of construction, transportation, and trade in
GNP at factor cost, although not as much higher as in
agriculture. The increases in the shares of agriculture
and construction suggest that the factor cost adjust-
ment includes a correction for depressed profit levels
prior to the revisions of established prices that oc-
curred after 1982.
These changes in GN by sector of origin carry over
to the allocation of GNP by end use (see table tx.
Total consumption takes a slightly higher share of
GNP at factor cost than in established prices, while
the shares of some of the components of consumption
are quite different. The adjustment has little effect on
the share of food consumption because the indirect
taxes subtracted from consumption of alcoholic bever-
ages and processed foods roughly balance the subsi-
dies added to consumption of animal (meat and dairy)
products and basic foods. Similarly, the indirect taxes
subtracted from consumption of soft goods and dura-
bles nearly offset the subsidies added to consumption
of housing and other services. The factor cost adjust-
ment raises investment's share of GNP because it
raises the prices of construction and machinery-the
major components of investment-relative to prices of
other output. The share of defense, too, is slightly
higher at factor cost.
The factor cost adjustment also reduces the total
value of base-year (1982) GNP by about 10 percent.
On balance, the sum of the indirect taxes, subsidies,
and profits removed from GNP in established prices
exceeds the value of the returns on capital added back
to GNP at factor cost. Almost all of the difference
results from an implicit change to domestic prices in
the valuation of foreign trade. As noted above, GNP
in established prices includes exports and imports
23 ,
Table 5
USSR: Distribution of GNP in 1982
by Sector of Origin in Established
Prices and at Factor Cost
Percent shares
Established Factor
Prices Cost
Total GNP
100.0
100.0
Industry
50.6
32.4
Ferrous metals
1.9
1.9
Nonferrous metals
1.4
1.3
Fuel
9.9
3.1
Electric power
1.8
2.3
Machinery
11.5
11.4
Chemicals
2.2
2.4
Wood. pulp, and paper
2.2
1.9
Construction materials
1.9
1.9
Light industry
8.2
2.2
Food industry
7.7
7.6
ILLEGIB
Other industry
1.3
1.9
Construction
6.7
7.8
Agriculture
15.3
20.6
Transportation
8.4
9.5
Communications
0.8
0.9
Trade
_
4.6
_
6.5
Services
11.6
20.1
Housing
0.8
5.5
Utilities
0.6
1.3
Repair and personal care
1.6
1.6
Recreation
0.5
1.0
Education
2.6
3.9
Health
1.4
2.1
Science
1.8
2.2
Credit and insurance
0.4
0.3
Government administration
2.1
2.2
General agricultural programs
0.3
0.3
Forestry
0.1
0.1
State administration
0.8
0.8
Culture
0.3
0.3
Municipal services
0.2
0.2
Civilian police
0.4
0.5
Military personnel
1.4
1.9
Other branches
0.4
0.3
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Table 6
USSR: Distribution of GNP
in 1982 by End Use in
Established Prices and at Factor Cost
Percent shares
Established
Prices
Factor
Cost
Total GNP
100.0
100.0
Consumption
53.4
55.3
Consumer goods
41.8
35.2
Food
24.9
25.0
Animal products
9.1
13.6
Processed foods
2.8
2.1
Ba-sic foods
4.7
5.8
Beverages
8.3
3.5
Soft goods
11.2
6.4
Durables
5.7
3.8
Consumer services
11.6
20.0
Housing
0.9
5.6
Utilities
0.9
1.7
Transportation
1.5
1.6
Communications
0.4
0.4
Repair and personal care
1.9
2.0
Recreation
0.6
1.1
Education
3.4
4.8
Health
2.0
2.8
Investment
28.1
30.4
New rued investment
21.9
23.8
Machinery and equipment
8.6
9.1
Construction and other
13.1
14.4
Net additions to livestock
0.2
0.3
Capital repair
6.1
6.6
Other government outlays
18.6
14.3
Government administration
2.7
2.9
Research, development, and
outlays n.e.c.
15.9
11.4
valued in foreign trade prices. Any differences be-
tween domestic and foreign trade prices are included
in the indirect taxes-similar to turnover taxes on
domestic output-removed by the factor cost
adjustment:
? Some major exports-mostly of energy-are sold at
foreign trade prices that are considerably higher
than domestic costs plus profits. The surplus-
which is collected by the state foreign trade author-
ity and paid into the budget-is subtracted in the
process of adjustment.
? Selected imports-primarily of soft goods and dura-
bles for consumption-are sold to domestic users at
prices that include substantial duties.. Ourprocedure
for the factor cost adjustment subtracts import
duties from consumption and from total GNP.
Finally, the factor cost adjustment affects our esti-
mates of the growth of total GNP. For most of the
period since 1950, rates of GNP growth at factor cost
have been lower than rates in established prices (see
table 7). The gap between these rates has narrowed
gradually over time, however, and reversed direction
in the 1980s. In large part, trends in this gap reflect
differences in the contributions of industry and agri-
culture to overall growth. Industry, which has a
smaller weight in GNP at factor cost than in estab-
lished prices, traditionally has grown more rapidly
than the rest of the economy, while agriculture, which
has a larger weight, has grown more slowly. More
recently, the growth of services, which have a larger
weight at factor cost, has become faster than growth
in industry and agriculture.
Besides total GNP growth, estimates of the growth of
industry and services are affected by the factor cost
adjustment because value-added weights are broken
down by branch within these major sectors. (The
growth of agriculture is not affected because only a
single value-added weight is estimated for the sector.)
For industry, growth at factor cost has exceeded
growth in established prices. Part of the explanation is
that the machinery branch, which has a greater
weight at factor cost, grew faster than the rest of
industry during the 1960s and 1970s. In the case of
services, differences between growth rates at factor
cost and in established prices have varied with differ-
ences between the growth of housing and growth in
the rest of the sector.
Growth of GNP
To estimate the growth of total GNP, as explained
earlier, we need a base-year weight and an index of
growth for each component. The indexes of compo-
nent growth, in turn, are derived from additional,
more detailed base-year weights and from data on
26
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Table 7
USSR: Effects of Factor Cost Adjustment
on GNP Growth, 1951-87
Percent average annual rates
GNP
Industry
Services
Established
Prices
Factor Cost
Established
Prices
Factor Cost
Established
Prices
Factor Cost
1951-55
6.0
4.9
9.8
9.7
1.9
2.6
1956-60
5.9
5.5
7.4
7.5
2.9
3.7
1961-65
5.0
4.8
6.0
6.5
4.7
4.6
1966-70
5.2
4.9
5.9
6.0
4.7
4.1
1971-75
3.4
3.0
5.0
5.6
3.7
3.3
1976-80
2.0
1.9
2.3
2.4
2.9
2.6
1981-85
1.7
1.8
1.8
2.0
2.1
2.2
1986-87
2.4
2.7
2.3
2.9
2.7
2.7
changes in the output of samples of products. These
indexes arc estimated for components of GNP both by
sector of origin and by end use, but it is the sector-of-
origin indexes that determine total GNP growth.
Detailed Weights for Growth Estimates. The weights
we use to calculate the growth of Soviet GNP are
estimated at three levels of detail (see figure 8). At the
first, most aggregated level, the weights come from
our base-year estimates of the components of GNP by
sector of origin and end use." The most detailed,
third-level weights are the prices of the individual
products in the samples used to track growth of the
components of GNP. Between these levels are inter-
mediate weights, which link the growth of two major
kinds of components of GNP with the growth of
samples of individual products. These weights consist
of estimates of:
? Value added by subbranch within the main
branches of industry-for example, automobiles and
precision instruments within the machinery
branch-for GNP by sector of origin.
"Estimates valued at factor cost provide the aggregated weights
preferred for most analytical purposes, but estimates based on
established prices also are used as weights for some calculations of
growth. Weighu at the second and third levels are available only in
established prices because it is not feasible to calculate the factor
cost adjustment in the additional detail that would be required. For
the industrial sector, however, these detailed weights exclude
indirect taxes and subsidies.
27
? Final expenditures by subcategory within consump-
tion of food and soft goods-for example, clothing
and shoes within soft goods consumption-for GNP
by end use.
Our detailed weights for estimating the growth of
GNP components are based on several kinds of
sources, which vary in reliability. Information on the
1982 prices of individual products in our samples-
the third-level weights-is adequate for the most part.
It is sparse for chemicals and processed foods, howev-
er, and not as good generally as information on 1970
prices. The vast majority of 1982 prices are drawn
from Soviet monographs and journal articles; official
handbooks listing prices are not available.
For the second-level weights, estimates of 1982 value
added by subbranch of industry are passable, but they
are based on an input-output table considerably less
detailed than its predecessor. On the other hand, 1982
expenditures by subcategory of consumption are esti-
mated largely from data published in Soviet statistical
yearbooks. We consider the quality of that estimates
good-about on a par with that of the corresponding
1970 estimates.
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Growth of GNP Components: Changes in Procedure.
For most components of Soviet GNP in 1982 prices,
our methods of estimating growth are the same as?
those described in USSR: Measures for GNP in 1970
prices.? There have been modifications, however, in
the estimation methods for industry, repair and per-
sonal care services, and recreation services.
Industry. The basic methods used to estimate indus-
trial growth are the same as before, but the sample of
products has changed:
? Products have been added to the samples for two
branches?wood, pulp, and paper, and construction
materials.
? See especially pp. 83-123, 179-190, 219-229, 241-244, 253-259,
337-352.
? Products for which detailed breakdowns are no
longer available have been combined in the samples
for each of four branches?ferrous metals; chemi-
cals; wood, pulp, and paper, and construction
materials.
? Data on coal and gas production have been adjusted
for changes in energy content.
Repair and Personal Care. The repair and personal
care sector includes both state-administered and pri-
vately provided services such as laundry, dry cleaning,
barber and beauty shops, and repair of household
appliances, automobiles, and housing. Very little in.?
is available for the private component of
. the sector, and much of the information that is
available is ambiguous in both coverage and valua-
tion. Because of the lack of data, we assume that
output of these private services has increased at a
constant rate of 1 percent per year on a per capita
basis. This assumption replaces a set of scattered?
and probably inconsistent?observations for a few
years, on which growth estimates in 1970 prices were
based. The growth of state services in prices of both
1982 and 1970 is based on Soviet value data in prices
officially described as "comparable."
Recreation. Estimates of the growth of recreation
services are based on new information, including a
revised sample of services provided by that sector. For
the resorts and leisure component of.recreation, esti-
mates of growth now are combined, instead of being
made separately, as was done for our estimates in
1970 prices. Moreover, the sample of services for this
new, combined category adds data on the number of
persons using rest bases and tourist hotels to earlier
data on persons using sanatoriums, resorts, and rest
homes. Data on hotel use (with employment in hotels
serving as a proxy for the number of persons accom-
modated) have been dropped from the sample. The
growth of the entertainment component of recreation
is estimated, as before, from data on paid attendance
at movies and theaters.
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Reliability of Estimates of Growth
Measures of economic growth are subject to errors
and uncertainties in any country?even one with a
good, open statistical system?and the CIA's esti-
mates of Soviet GNP growth are no exception."'
Recently, for example, criticisms of official Soviet
statistics have drawn renewed attention to sources of
potential overstatement in some of the data we use to
estimate GNP growth. Some of the other data used
for our estimates, on the other hand, are widely
believed by Western economists to understate
growth.'2
Estimates of the growth of total GNP are subject to
uncertainty in (1) measuring the growth of the individ-
ual sectors of origin and (2) deriving the weights of
these sectors in the base year. In addition, estimates
of the growth of end uses are affected by inaccuracies,
although these estimates are not used in determining
total GNP growth. The potential for errors from each
of these sources is reviewed below, and the likely
impact on total GNP growth is assessed. In our
judgment, this impact is generally not severe?al-
though it cannot be dismissed?partly because errors
in opposite directions offset each other to some extent.
Finally, some avenues for future improvements in our
GNP estimates are noted.
Growth by Sector of Origin ?
There are several criteria for assessing the reliability
of the estimate of growth for a particular sector of
origin:
? How well the sample of the sector's products repre-
sents the full range of its output.
? How well the kinds of data available for these
products reflect trends in the sector's real output,
including changes in the mix and quality of
products.
Western specialists have written many books and journal articles
on the selection and refinement of estimating methods. An annotat-
ed bibliography of much of the literature is provided in Dan Usher,
The Measurement of Economic Growth (New York: Columbia
University Press, 1980), in the notes at the end of each chapter.
" We have made a number of efforts?most recently in USSR.:
Measures?to alert users of GNP estimates to potential measure-
ment problems. For earlier discuuions of such problems, see
Stanley H. Cohn, "National Income Growth Statistics," and Rush
V. Greenslade, "Industrial Production Statistics in the USSR," in
Vladimir G. Trend and John P. Hardt, eds., Soviet Economic
Statistics (Durham, N.C.: Duke University Press, 1972), chapters 5
and 7.
29
? How closely trends in value added are matched by
trends in the proxy for it?such as gross output.
In the rest of this section, we discuss these criteria in
turn and evaluate the extent to which our sector-of-
origin estimates satisfy them.
Adequacy of Samples. Because the availability of -
Soviet data on the production of individual products is
limited, our samples are not selected randomly. Rath-
er, we use as much regularly published data as
possible, except that items already covered in larger
product categories are excluded.? In addition, we
estimate production of goods about which the Soviets
release little or no information?notably military
machinery, nonferrous metals, and refined oil. Esti-
mates of output in selected years also are made as
needed to fill gaps in statistics for other products?for
example, some chemicals and construction materials.
On balance, we believe that our samples provide
adequate coverage. For industry and agriculture?the
two largest sectors of origin?approximate shares of
gross output represented by the samples can be calcu-
lated."' The industrial sample covers nearly 60 percent
of civilian output in the base year (1982), with branch
coverage ranging from a high of about 80 percent for
electric power to a low of roughly 35 percent for
nonferrous metals. The sample for agriculture covers
approximately 90 percent of base-year output. Cover-
age of transportation is also judged quite complete?
about equal to that in agriculture in the base year?
although we have not made a numerical estimate for
this sector.
Kinds of Data in Samples. The predominant kind of
data in the sample for each sector of origin generally
points to the direction of any error in estimates of the
sector's growth. In the West, most experts believe that
data on current values of output, deflated by price
indexes as accurate as those available for Western
countries, provide better estimates of growth than
data on quantities of output, weighted by prices of a
Products for which we have not yet been able to derive base-year
prices, such as various kinds of household chemicals, are excluded
also.
"The calculations here are updates of similar estimates for 1970,
reported in USSR: Measures, pp. 207-209, 257-258.
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fixed year. The principal reason is that deflated values
permit better coverage of new products and of im-
provements in quality than quantity indexes do, espe-
cially when innovation is rapid. Also, price indexes
estimated from samples are generally believed to
represent changes in the prices of excluded goods
better than sample quantity indexes represent exclud-
ed quantity changes."
Official Soviet price indexes are sparse, however, and
Western ecoi=Lv found many af them unreli-
able." Moreover, data on current values often are not
published. This leaves us with a choice between:
? Data on quantities of output in physical units?such ?
as tons, items, or square meters?which are multi-
plied by base-year prices to obtain values. These
statistics are generally considered reliable indicators
of physical volume, but they do not capture the full
extent of changes in product mix and quality.
? Data on values of output in prices officially de-
scribed as "comparable," which are taken directly
from Soviet statistical yearbooks. Almost all West-
ern experts, and now most Soviet economists, be-
lieve that these statistics overstate growth because
practices for pricing new products in the USSR
exaggerate the extent of quality improvements.
"See T.P. Hill, The Measurement at Real Product: A Theoretical
and Empirical Analysis of the Growth Rates/or Different Indus-
tries and Countries (Paris: Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development, 1971), pp. 25-26, 41-42, 58-59; and Usher. The
Measurement of Economic Growth, chapter 8. The advantages of
deflated value data also are discussed in USSR: Measures, pp. 42-
43.
But even when deflated value data are widely available, as they
are in the United States, measurement problems are not eliminated.
Until a few years ago, for example, in the absence of a satisfactory
price index for computers, the Department of Commerce assumed
that US computer prices had not changed. When a new index was
developed, it showed that computer prices bad declined sharply (at
an average annual rate of 14 percent between 1972 and 1984), so
that real growth of computer output had been underestimated.
Some economists are now criticizing the new index, however,
arguing that computer prices declined at only about half the rate
estimated by Commerce. See "Revised Estimates of the National
Income and Product Accounts of the United States, 1929-85: An
Introduction," Survey of Current Business (December 1985): pp.
16-17; and "Gross Product by Industry:Comments on Recent
Criticisms," Survey a/ Current Business (July 1988): pp. 132-133.
'I For a comprehensive discussion of Soviet price indexes, see
Morris Bornstein, "Soviet Price Statistics," in Trend and Hardt,
eds.. Soviet Economic Statistics, chapter 16.
Quantity Data. Over the years, Western inquiries into
the reliability of Soviet official statistics generally
have found physical quantity data to be acceptable."
Producing enterprises have incentives to distort their
reports to statistical authorities because a substantial
share of the incomes of workers and managers de-
pends on reported output. Nonetheless, the Western
studies have concluded that the extent of distortion in
reporting usually is limited, in part by periodic audits
and by penalties for falsification. There are excep-
tions?for example, the recent scandal over the exag-
geration of cotton production statistics in Soviet Cen-
tral Asia." As in that case, most of the distortions are
believed to involve overstatement of output?especial-
ly to enable enterprises to claim fulfillment of produc-
tion plans. On the other hand, understatement can
also occur?for example, when managers try to hold
down targets in future plans.
Even if levels of output are distorted, estimates of
growth based on these levels can remain accurate if
the extent and direction of misreporting do not change
over time. Some thirty years ago, Alec Nove formu-
lated a "law of equal cheating," hypothesizing that,
"Over the economy as a whole, there is no reason to
suppose that Soviet managers and their accountants
falsify more in one year than in another, so the rate a
growth is unlikely to be exaggerated on that account."
Subsequent research by Grossman indicated that
incentives and opportunities for cheating were subject
to year-to-year variations but that information on the
quantitative effects of such variations was lacking."
Two recent studies?both drawing on interviews of Soviet emi-
gres?are Susan J. Linz, "Managerial Autonomy in Soviet Firms,"
Soviet Studies (April 1988): pp. 175-195; and Stephen Shenfield in
collaboration with Philip Hanson, "State Statistical Work in the
USSR: Findings from Interviews with Former Soviet Statistical
Personnel" (Washington: National Council for Soviet and Ps.t
European Research, 1986). For evaluations of a wide variety of
Soviet statistics, including quantity data on industrial and agricul-
tural output, see Tread and Hardt, eds., Soviet Economic Statis-
tics, especially chapters 1 and 7-12. An earlier standard reference
on industrial statistics is Gregory Grossman's Soviet Statistics of
Physical Output of Industrial Commodities: Their Compilation
and Quality (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1960).
" A chronology of the scandal appears in Business Week (6 July
1987): p. 45.
Both the quotation of Nove and Grossman's conclusions are from
Grossman's Soviet Statistics cif Physical Output, p. 133.
. 30
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In any event, the effects on estimates of growth over
longer periods still may be small if distortions in
annual changes are in opposite directions.
In the last few years, some Western analysts have
claimed that Soviet statistics on physical quantities of
output have become increasingly overstated." Anec-
dotal evidence of exaggeration in such measures does
seem to be surfacing with increasing frequency in the
Soviet press. This evidence, however, may reflect the
leadership's policies more than the accuracy of the
basic data. Official scrutiny of statistical reporting
has tightened as a result of a series of campaigns
against corruption, and unofficial criticism of statis-
? tics has surged in response to Gorbachev's policy of
glasnost. Still, information of the kind that would be
needed to adjust for changes in the accuracy of
measures of physical output remains as inadequate
and unconvincing as it was at the time of Grossman's
study. Like Western researchers, moreover, Soviet
critics of official statistics generally accept these
physical quantity data while rejecting output mea-
sures in comparable prices."
Nonetheless, growth estimates based on physical
quantity data fail to capture the full extent of changes
in product mix and quality, including the introduction
of new products as an extreme case. In a growing
economy, these changes typically are improvements,
although there are exceptions?in the USSR, primar-
ily raw materials, such as coal and iron ore.
" See, for example, Richard E Ericson, "The Soviet Statistical
Debate: Khanin vs. TsSU," paper presented at Hoover Institution-
RAND Corporation Conference on the Defense Sector and the
Soviet Economy (Stanford University, 23-24 March 1988; revised
May 1988), p. 10.
One of the most prominent Soviet critics, Origoriy Khanin, has
made extensive use of physical measures of industrial production
ansLhas-endorsed official indexes of agricultural output and
railroad transportation. The only quantity data that he explicitly
rejects are those for truck transportation. See G.I. Khanin,"Arter-
nativnyye otsenki rezurtatov khozyaystvennoy deyaternosti proiz-
vodstvennykh yacheyek promyshlennosti" (Alternative Estimates of
the Results of the Economic Activity of Productive Units of
Industry), lzvestiya akademil nauk SSSR: seriya ekonomicher-
kayo (No. 6, 1981): pp. 64, 72; and "Puti sovershenstvovaniya
informatsionnogo obespecheniya svodnykli planovykh narodnokho-
zyaystvennykh rascheurt" (Ways of Improving the Information
Supply for Aggregate National Economic Planning Calculations),
Izvestlya akademli nauk SSSR: serlya ekonomicheskaya (No. 3,
1984): p. 60.
Ideally, quantity data should be detailed enough to
reflect changes in product mix but still comprehensive
enough to provide good coverage of output. Unfortu-
nately, data that meet both of these requirements are
seldom available. We do select and adjust the quanti-
ty data used in our samples, however, in an effort to
capture as many changes in product mix and quality
as possible. For example:
? Sample data are used in as much detail as possi-
ble?including estimated breakdowns for some data
published only in summary form. Trucks and pas-
senger cars, for instance, are disaggregated by
model.
? Standardized units of physical measure arc used
whenever available?such as for fertilizers, genera-
tors, and turbines.
? Explicit adjustments for quality arc made in some
cases, such as coal, cement, and flour.
Value Data. Soviet value data in so-called comparable
prices are supposed to serve the same function as
Western economic statistics in constant prices?that
is, to measure output excluding the effects of price
changes (see inset). In the USSR, however, compara-
ble price* include a substantial degree of disguised
inflation, largely because of two features of the way
prices are established for new products."
First, producing enterprises benefit financially from
making minor alterations in familiar products and
using the "improvements" as an excuse for increasing
prices. The increases are then reflected in output
"Inflation in the prices of new products has been discussed widely
in Western literature on the Soviet economy. See, for example,
Joseph S. Berliner, The Innovation Decision in Soviet Industry
(Cambridge, Masa.: MIT Press, 1976), pp. 235-360. This subject is
also discussed in USSR: Measures, pp. 13, 44, 181,213-214. and
the sources cited there.
For a skeptical view of Western estimates of substantial disguised
inflation in the USSR. see Steven Rosefielde, False Science:
Underestimating the Soviet Ann: Buildup, revised second edition
(New Brunswick, NJ.: Transaction Books, 1987), pp. 101-148.
Recently, however, Rosefielde has expressed willingness to accept
the possibility of rather high rates of disguised inflation. See his
"The Soviet Economy in Crisis: Birman's Cumulative Disequilibri-
um Hypothesis," Soviet Studies (April 1988): pp. 222-244.
31
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Comparable Prices, Soviet Style
Prices are set administratively in the USSR and are
changed only infrequently for standard products.
which include most goods. Comparable prices (sopos-
tavimyye tseny), which are used along with current
prices in reporting output to the statistical authori-
ties, are set for a given base year?usually the year of
a general price revision:
? For goods in series production in the base year,
comparable prices are simply list prices (postoyan-
nyye tseny) of that year.
? For products introduced later, comparable prices
are the first list prices established?at the time the
decision to begin series production is taken. No
adjustment is made for any changes that may have
occurred since the base year in the costs qf inputs,
which play a major role in determining prices.
? For products too new or unique to have entered
series production, tile only prices available are
temporary prices (vremennyye tseny) or one-time
prices (razovyye tseny). By default, these prices are
accepted as comparable, even though they are sup-
posed to be reduced when or if series production
begins.
Over the years, Soviet economists have provided
many examples of inflated prices for new products.
The following illustration is recent and striking:
In the last five-year plan period, machine build-
ers mastered the production of approximately
3,000 types of new products per year on average
(for comparison: all other branches of industry,
taken together, mastered only 700 types per
year). Naturally, there are no prices for these
items on the price lists; they have to be estab-
lished from scratch.
The price .usually grows to a much greater
extent than the user characteristics of the prod-
uct improve. An ordinary lathe manufactured
by the capital's "Krasnyy proletariy" plant, say,
costs about 5,500 rubles. The same lathe with a
numerical programming mechanism costs
40,000, and one fitted with a robot as well costs
70,000 rubles. How much more productive is a
machine supplied with all the wonders of tech-
nology than an ordinary one? Half again as
productive.
The permanent price.. . usually differs little
from the temporary one.a
4 Vasiliy Selyunin and Grigoriy Kharrin. "Lukavaya tsitra"(Cun-
ning Figures). Novyy mir (No. 2, 1987): p. 182.
reported to the statistical authorities in comparable
prices, as well as in revenues from purchasers of new
products. At the same time, production of older,
cheaper items can be stopped, leaving purchasers with
little choice but to accept the new ones. Opportunities
to switch suppliers are rare under Soviet conditions of
few markets and chronic shortages. Besides, enter-
prises that pay higher prices-for inputs often can make
minor changes in their own products and thus pass the
inflated costs along to their customers.
Second, even products incorporating genuine improve-
ments are assigned high prices at first to cover the
research, development, and other costs of the initial
stages of production. High temporary prices are sup-
posed to be replaced by lower permanent prices within
a few years. Typically, however, producing enterprises
attempt to postpone any reduction as long as possible
and keep the permanent price as high as possible.
Soviet value data are published regularly for a num-
ber of products, mostly machinery. Despite their
shortcomings, we use these value data in two kinds of
circumstances:
? When measures of output in physical units are
unavailable.
? When improvements in product mix and quality
would be seriously understated by physical
measures.
32
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For machinery, where these conditions often prevail,
value data make up roughly 40 percent of our sample
in the base year. The shares of value data in the
samples for other branches of industry are smaller?
ranging from zero for metals, energy, construction
materials, and processed food to 30 percent for light
industry."
Proxies for Value Added. As mentioned earlier (in the
overview of estimating methods), we use proxies to
estimate the real growth of value added in all sectors
of origin except agriculture. The most important?
and the most reliable?of these proxies is gross out-
put, on which our estimates for industry, transporta-
tion, and trade are based.
Gross Output. Because gross output includes interme-
diate inputs as well as value added, its growth will
differ from value-added growth if the proportions of
these components change. Residual calculations of
value added itself?ad the difference between gross
output and intermediate inputs?also are subject to
errors, however, if the output and input data are
inaccurate. Research by T. P. Hill has indicated that
using gross output as a proxy is likely to provide more
accurate results than calculating value added as a
residual (I) when there is no clear evidence that the
proportions of intermediate inputs and value added
have changed and (2) when estimates of intermediate
inputs are subject to large errors.'
For our estimates of Soviet industrial growth, the
effects of changes in the proportions of value added
and intermediate inputs should be minimized by the
detail in which value-added weights are available?
for subbranches such as machine tools and automo-
biles, as well as for branches such as machinery.
Moreover, rough calculations of the growth of value
added as a residual matched gross-output proxies
reasonably well during 1959-72."
"The calculations here are updates of similar estimates for 1970,
reported in USSR: Measures, p. 215.
The_hfeasurement of Real Product, pp. 19-22, 57-58, 98-105.
111-112, 118. Hill's results are also discussed in USSR: Measures,
pp. 44-45, 186.
"These residual calculations were made possible by the availability
of input-output tables in 1970 prices for 1959, 1966, and 1972. See
USSR: Measures, pp. 211-212.
33 ,
Studies of US industrial growth also suggest that
estimates based on gross-output proxies?which are
constructed by the Federal Reserve Board?have
been quite close to residual estimates of value add-
ed?which are made by the Department of Com-
merce. Jack Gottsegen and Richard Ziemer found
that the average annual growth of all manufacturing
industries during 1948-64 was 4.2 percent using
gross-output proxies?less than half a percentage
point faster than the rate of 3.8 percent based on
value added. For most individual industries, rates of
increase estimated using both methods were within a
percentage point of each other."
Intermediate Inputs. For the construction sector, in-
termediate inputs?mostly of industrial products?
are used as a proxy for value added. In general, this
proxy is not considered as reliable as gross output,
partly because input data often are subject to greater
uncertainty than output data. Aside from data prob-
lems, moreover, gross output includes value added,
but intermediate inputs and value added are mutually
exclusive measures." Nonetheless, past tests of the
procedures we use?during their initial development
by Raymond Powell and, later, for our estimates of
GNP in 1970 prices?have shown them to be satisfac-
tory." More recently, Bergson has found new support
for the proxy by observing that the price changes
implied by our estimates of construction growth are
consistent with independent calculations of price in-
dexes from Soviet data on construction costs and
profits."
"See Jack J. Gottsegen and Richard C. Ziemer, "Comparison of
Federal Reserve and OBE Measures of Real Manufacturing Out-
put, 1947-64," in John W. Kendrick, ed., The Industrial Composi-
tion of Income and Product, Studies in Income and Wealth, Vol. 32
(New York: Columbia University Press, 1968), pp. 225-347. In a
paper discussed below, Michael Boretglry c.htlined re.ult?
for the 1959-77 period. See "The Tenability of the CIA Estimates
of Soviet Economic Growth," Journal of Comparative Economics
(December 1987): pp. 524-525. More recently, the Department of
Commerce reported that 1972-85 growth rates based on gross
output and value added remained quite dote but did not examine
the reasons for differences as extensively as Gottsegen and Ziemer
did. See "Gross Product by Industry." D. 133.
"For further elaboration of this point, see Hill, The Measurement
421 Real Product, pp. 21-22.
"See Raymond P. Powell, "An Index of Soviet Construction.
1927/28 to 1955," Review of Economics and Statistics (May
1959): pp. 170477: and USSR: Measures, pp. 83-87.
""On Soviet Real Investment Growth." Soviet Studies (July 1987):
pp. 411-412, 419.
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Labor Inputs. Our estimates of growth in a number of
service sectors are based on labor inputs?measured
in work hours?as a proxy for value added. This proxy
almost certainly understates growth because it does
not reflect any gains made in labor productivity.
Moreover, our data on labor inputs are not detailed
enough to reflect changes in the composition and
quality of the labor force, such as a rising proportion
of more skilled and educated workers. Given the
sparsity of Soviet data on services, however?partly
because of the Marxian view that all services except
those contributing directly to material output are
"nonproductive"?we have few alternatives.
Even in Western countries, labor inputs are the only
data readily available for some service sectors?
mainly education and government services. Most
Western countries, however, are able to measure these
inputs in ways that capture at least some changes in
the composition of the labor force. Data on deflated
wages often are used instead of data on work hours,
and even when this is not the case, Western data are
more detailed than those for the USSR.?
Criticisms of Estimates. While we would like to
minimize errors of all kinds in our estimates of GNP
growth by sector of origin, perhaps the most impor-
tant task is to minimize bias?that is, errors mainly in
one direction. The possibility of biased estimates?
whether too high or too low?is greatest for industry
and services, so it is not surprising that criticisms have
focused primarily on these sectors.
Industry. Our estimates of Soviet industrial growth
include sources of both understatement and overstate-
ment, and they have been challenged on both counts.
The most detailed charges of downward bias have
come from Michael Boretsky, who claims that we rely
too heavily on quantity data and that our sample does
" See Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,
Department of Economics and Statistics, Measurement of Value
Added at Constant Prices in Service Activities (Paris: Organization
for Economic Cooperation and Development, 1987), pp. 6-14: and
Hill, The Measurement of Real Product, pp. 56-57.
not represent the range of industrial output adequate-
ly. ? In criticizing our reliance on quantity data,
however, he mentions only in passing our use of value
data?especially for machinery. And he barely ac-
knowledges our efforts to make the quantity data we
use reflect as many changes in product mix and
quality as possible.
In an indirect test, Boretsky has used our sample and
methods?with some modifications?to calculate the
growth of industry in the United States and the
Federal Republic of Germany. Because his calcula-
tions imply substantially lower growth rates than
indicated by official statistics for those countries, he
faults our procedures. We would not expect a sample
designed for Soviet industry, however, to represent
US and West German ?input well. The vast differ-
ences between the USSR and these Western coun-
tries?in economic systems and policies, levels of
economic development, and endowments of natural
resources?are likely to result in major differences in
the mix of output.
Furthermore, Boretsky goes on to implicitly endorse
official Soviet aggregate measures of industrial
growth. His argument is based on the observation that
differences between official growth rates for the Unit-
ed States and the Federal Republic of Germany?
which are widely regarded as highly reliable?and his
calculations for these countries are similar to differ-
ences between Soviet official growth rates and our
""The Tenability of the CIA Estimates of Soviet Economic
Growth." Journal of Comparative Economics (December 1987): pp.
517-542. Also see John Pitzer's rebuttal, "The Tenability of the
CIA Estimates of Soviet Economic Growth: A Comment." Journal
of Comparative Economics (September 1989).
The criticisms of other Western economists have been less severe.
Padma Desai, for example, has pointed out sources of downward
bias in our estimates of industrial growth but also acknowledged
upward bias in official Soviet figures. See "Total Factor Productivi-
ty in Postwar Soviet Industry and Its Branches." Journal of
Comparative Economics (March 1985): pp. 18-20. In some of her
work, she has used averages of CIA and Soviet series. See -On
Reconstructing Price, Output. and Value-Added Indexes in Post-
war Soviet Industry and Its Branches," Oxford Bulletin of Eco-
nomics and Statistics (February 1978): pp. 60-62.
34
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estimates. In presenting this case, Boretsky ignores
the voluminous record of Western and Soviet criticism
of the USSR's official statistics?especially on growth
in machinery output.
Indeed, the shortcomings of these official statistics
have received renewed attention in the last few years.
Several Soviet economists?notably Vasiliy Selyunin
and Grigoriy Khanin?have criticized statistics on the
growth of industry overall and machinery in particu-
lar.? The charges of these recent critics are similar to
those raised by an older generation of Soviet experts
in the 1960s. and even earlier in the West."
In the era of glasnost some of the critics have been
able to go beyond their predecessors in publishing
alternative estimates of growth that cover relatively
broad categories of output and long periods of time. It
appears, however, that these alternative estimates are
based so extensively on output data in physical units
that they are unable to capture changes in product
mix and quality."
Fyodor Kushnirsky has suggested that Soviet econo-
mists may neglect quality improvements because
product changes are initiated by producers in the
"For Western discussions of the work of Selyunin and Khanin. see
CIA. Revisiting Soviet Economic Performance Under Glasnost:
Implications for CIA Estimates (SOV 88-10068, September 1988);
Richard E. Ericson. "The Soviet Statistical Debate"; Vladimir
Kontorovich and Boris Rumer, Inflation in the Soviet Investment
Complex (Princeton Junction. N.J.: Command Economies Re-
search, May 1988); and Fyodor Kushnirsky, "New Challenges to
Soviet Official Statistics: A Methodological Survey," in CIA
Conference Report. The Impact of Gorbachev's Policies on Soviet
Economic Statistics (SOV 88-10049, July 1988). The CIA and
Kontorovich-Rumer papers also discuss the work of other Soviet
critics in some detail.
"For a review of the early Soviet criticisms, which focused largely
on statistics on machinery output and investment, see Abraham S.
Becker. "The Price Level of Soviet Machinery in the 1960s," Soviet
Studies (July 19741: pp. 363-379. Early Western assessments of
Soviet statistics are cited and summarized in Abram Bergson. The
Real National Income of Soviet Russia, pp. 3-4.
"The Selyunin-Khanin estimates also make use of a number of
shortcut procedures, such as estimating Soviet industrial output (by
sector) on the basis of the relationship between output and electric-
ity use in the United States.and actual Soviet electricity use.
35
USSR and often are not useful to purchasers." For
example, manufacturers may increase production of
large-capacity trucks when the primary needs of the
transportation system are for small and medium-size
vehicles. Even though purchasers in the Soviet econo-
my have few choices, however, some improvements in
quality undoubtedly are genuine. One Soviet expert
on machinery has cited such improvements in support
of his view that "It is not possible, of course, to judge
growth of the production of machinery and equipment
only by the number of units produced." 66
Services. Boretsky and Mark Prell both maintain that
our estimates of the growth of services are too low.
Their arguments are based on our use of quantity data
in estimates of housing growth and of labor inputs as
a proxy for value added in several other service
sectors. We have acknowledged that these estimates
are understated, but we do not believe the degree of
bias is as great as Boretsky and Prell claim."
As in his criticism of our estimates of industrial
growth, Boretsky's judgment is based on his applica-
tion of our estimating procedures to US and West
German data." Prell also tests our procedures using
""New Challenges to Soviet Official Statistics." pp. 19-20. Kush-
nirsky's own research has indicated significant improvements in the
quality of passenger cars?enough to explain most of the increases
in their wholesale and retail prices during 1976-82 (ibid.).
When GNP is valued at factor cost, measures of quality improve-
ment should be based on increases in the costs of producing higher-
quality output. Such measures should be understood, however, to
apply only to improvements for which purchasers are willing to pay.
D.M. Palterovich, "Problemy ispol'zovaniya strategicheskikh i
takticheskikh rezervov mashinostroyeniya" (Problems of Using the
Strategic and Tactical Reserves of Machine Building), Ekonomika
i matematicheskiye melody (No. 4, 1987): p. 591.
A CIA study also supports the view that the quality of Soviet
machinery has improved. The results of this study indicate that the
quality of several types of construction machinery improved signifi-
cantly from 1960 to 1973?although price increases often exceeded
quality improvements. See CIA Research Paper, An Analysis of
the Behavior of Soviet Machinery Prices. 1960-73 (ER 79-10631.
December 1979).
"See, for example. USSR. Measures, pp. 112-113, 344-345, 349.
"Boretsky has also criticized our estimates of construction growth,
arguing that he obtained inaccurate results when applying them to
the US construction sector. See "The Tenability of the CIA
Estimates," pp. 526-527, 532.
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US data and then goes on to develop his own esti-
mates of services growth in the USSR." His estimates
for housing are based on official Soviet data on the
value of the stock of housing capital in comparable
prices. Like Soviet data on output in such prices, these
housing data overstate growth because they include
disguised inflation.
For the other services he considers, PreII uses inputs
of labor and capital combined as a proxy for value
added, assuming that the productivity of these com-
bined inputs (factor productivity) is constant. His
labor data are the same as ours, and his capital data
again are official Soviet stock values in comparable
prices.
His assumption of constant factor productivity implies
faster output growth than our assumption of constant
labor productivity because capital inputs have grown
faster than labor inputs. According to our estimates,
however, factor productivity in the Soviet economy
overall and in many individual sectors has been
decreasing since the early to middle 1970s. Prell's
procedures thus providt a way to allow for gains in
labor productivity, but we believe that both his pro-
ductivity assumption and his use of inflated Soviet
capital data overstate the growth of services.
Potential Impact of Errors. Rough impressions of the
quantitative importance of sources of upward and
downward bias in our estimates of sectoral growth can
be obtained from comparisons with alternative esti-
mates. As in the preceding section, we focus on
industry and services because we are more concerned
about bias than about other errors (see inset on page
38). While our estimates for agriculture and the
smaller sectors, like transportation and trade, are
subject to inaccuracies, there is no reason to expect
that they are biased.
'4 The Role of the Service Sector in Soviet GNP and Productivity
Estimates (Ph.D. dissertation, Massachusetts Institute of Technol-
ogy. 1987); and "The Role of the Service Sector in Soviet GNP and
Productivity Estimates," Journal of Comparative Economics (Sep-
tember 1989). Also see the response by Laurie Kurtzweg, "The
Role of the Service Sector in Soviet GNP and Productivity
Estimates: A Comment," Journal of Comparative Economics
(forthcoming, December 1989).
Industry. Within industry, our growth estimates are
likely to be understated for several branches where
samples consist primarily of quantity data, but proba-
bly overstated for the machinery branch, where the
sample includes a large share of Soviet value data in
comparable prices.
The growth of any branch whose sample is dominated
by quantity data may be biased downward. The
degree of bias is likely to be minor, however, unless
improvements in the mix and quality of output are
rapid. We can get a sense of the potential underesti-
mation by comparing our growth rates for the non-
machinery branches with official Soviet statistics (see
table 8)." If we view the official rates tentatively as
upper bounds, this comparison suggests that there is
little bias in our estimates for fuels and electric power.
where rapid improvements in product mix and quality
would not be expected. The branches for which
underestimation is likely to be greatest are chemicals
and, to a lesser extent, construction materials and
wood products.
For the machinery branch, our estimates of growth
probably are somewhat overstated, although they are
well below official Soviet figures (table 8). We can
roughly gauge the possible degree of overstatement by
comparing our growth rates with alternative Western
and Soviet estimates that rely more heavily on quanti-
ty data (see table 9)." Using a sample of civilian
machinery based entirely on quantity data, Vladimir
Treml has estimated average annual growth at rates
1 to 2 percentage points below ours for civilian
machinery!' These differences in growth rates appear
reasonable as rough upper limits on the degree of
overstatement in our estimates.
Because of differences in the construction of our estimates and
official Soviet indexes, the results of this comparison should be
interpreted with caution. Our base year (1982) is fixed, for example,
while Soviet indexes reflect a series of linked base years (1952,
1955, 1967, 1975, and 1982). Also, we use value-added weights for
branches of industry (such as machinery) and subbranches (such as
automobiles), while Soviet indexes are based on gross-output
weights.
Special caution is required in interpreting the unofficial Soviet
estimates because little is known about the methods on which they
are based.
Treml's estimates of output growth are one result of a larger
study of changes in machinery prices. See "Price Index for Soviet
Machinery, 1965-1986" (manuscript, September 19881.
36
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?
Table 8
USSR: Comparison of CIA Estimates of Industrial Growth
With Official Soviet Statistics, 1951-87
Percent average annual rates
1951-60
1961-70
1971-80
1981-87
1951-87
Total industry
CIA ?
8.6
6.3
4.0
2.2
5.5
Soviet b
11.7
8.6
5.9
3.9
7.8
Ferrous metals
CIA ?
9.5
6.4
2.5
1.3
5.2
*Witt b
10.4
6.8
3.5
1.9
6.3
?Fueb
CIA ?
9.3
6.0
4.2
1.4
5.5
SOViet b
9.3
6.2
4.4
1.6
.5.6
Electric power
CIA ?
12.3
9.7
5.8
3.3
8.1
Soviet b
13.7
10.6
6.1
3.7
8.9
1Vlachinery
CIA ?
7.4
6.6
5.1
2.4
5.6
SOViet b
15.4
12.1
9.9
6.3
11.2
Chemicab
CIA ?
10.7
10.0
5.6
3.8
7.8
Soviet b
14.7
13.3
8.1
5.0
10.6
Wood, pulp, and paper
CIA ?
6.4
2.7
1.0
2.7
3.2
%Viet b
8.0
5.3
3.3
3.6
5.2
Construction materials
CIA ?
15.7
5.9
3.1
2.3
7.0
Soviet b
18.4
8.6
4.5
3.4
9.0
Light-industrY
CIA ?
8.0
4.5
2.5
1.6
4.3
Soviet b
9.6
5.5
4.0
1.5
5.4
Food Industry
CIA ?
9.1
6.4
2.7
1.1
5.1
Soviet b
8.9
6.6
3.4
3.8
5.8
? Growth of total industry is calculated from indexes of branch
growth, weighted by value added at 1982 factor cat. Branch
growth is calculated from indexes of gross output by subbranch,
weighted by value added in 1982 producers' prices (established
prices, excluding turnover taxes and subsidies).
b Growth of total industry and its branches is calculated from
values of gross output in comparable producers' prices (established
prices, excluding turnover taxes and subsidies) of a series of linked
base years (1952, 1955, 1967, 1975, and 1982).
End year is 1984.
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Cumulative Impact of Bias
Any judgment about how much bias is acceptable in
our estimates of the growth of GNP and its major
components must be subjective. In this paper, biases
up to plus or minus 0.5 percentage point in average
annual rates of change are considered acceptable,
given the general difficulty of accurate estimation. If
a 0.5 percentage point bias persisted over the entire
37-year period covered here, however, its cumulative
impact on the index of growth would be fairly
substantial-an overstatement or understatement of
20 percent (see table). Potential biases of! or even 2
percentage points per year are treated as provisional-
ly acceptable in estimates of the growth of some GNP
components, but not of totaL GNP. When biases are
this large, however, we recognize the need for further
research on improving our estimate.
Bias in Average
Annual Growth
Rate a
Index b of Cumulative Effect
After
16 20. 30 37
Years Years Years Years
0.1
101
102
103
104
0.2
102
104
106
108
0.3
103
106
109
112
0.4
104
108
113
116
0.5
105
110
116
120
1.0
110
122
135
145
1.5
116
135
156
173
2.0
122
149
181
208
A Percentage points.
b Correct index = 100.
Services. As mentioned earlier, our estimates of
growth in some service sectors are almost certainly
understated. The growth of housing is estimated from
data on changes in the total stock of living space,
without adjustment for qualitative improvements. Al-
though the rate of quality change probably has not
been rapid, it undoubtedly has been positive. Growth
Table 9
USSR: Comparison of CIA ?
and Alternative Estimates
of Machinery Growth, 1961-85
Percent average annual rates
CIA
Treml b
Selyunin and _ Val'tukh and
Khanin c Lavrovskiy d
1961-65
7.1
NA
8.7
10.7
1966-70
6.2
6.4
5.5
5.9
1971-75
7.2
5.2
5.1-6.2
4.7
1976-80
3.0
2.7
2.0-3.1
1.2
1981-85
2.0
7.3
0.2-1.2
NA
1961-85
5.1
NA
4.3-4.9
NA
1966-80
5.4
4.8
4.2-4.9
3.9
Growth of total machinery, calculated from indexes of gross
output by subbranch, weighted by value added in 1982 producers'
prices (established prices, excluding turnover taxes and subsidies).
b Growth of civilian machinery, calculated from indexes of gross
output by subbranch, weighted by gross output in 1982 producers"
prices (established prices, excluding turnover taxes and subsidies).
See Vladimir G. Treml, "Price Index for Soviet Machinery, 1965-
1986" (manuscript, September 1988), p. 83.
c Growth calculated by dividing official index of total machinery
output by Selyunin and Khanin's index of disguised inflation,
presumably for total machinery. See Vasiliy Selyunin and Grigoriy
Khanin. "Lukavaya tsifra," Novyy mir No. 2, 19871: pp. 187. 194.
d Presumably, growth of civilian machinery. See K.K. Val'tukh and
B.L. Lavrovskiy, "Proizvocistvennyy apparat strany: isporzovaniye i
rekonstniktsiya," Ekonomika i organizatsiya promysh1ennogo
proizvodstva (No. 2, 1986): p. 29.
also is likely to be underestimated for health, educa-
tion, and government services, where we use labor
inputs as a proxy for value added.
We believe Prell's estimates of services growth are
overstated, but we can tentatively accept them as
upper limits on actual rates of increase (see table 10).
Doing so implies that our estimates understate the
growth of services by at most 3 percentage points per
year for housing and by no more than 2 percentage
points annually for the sectors where labor inputs are
used as a proxy.
Growth by End Use
Although estimates of GNP by end use are not used
in calculating the growth of total GNP, they ought to
portray trends in resource allocation as accurately as
38
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Table 10
USSR: Comparison of CIA and Alternative Estimates
of Services Growth, 1951-84
Percent average annual rates
1951-60
1961-70
1971-80
1981-84
1951-84
Housing
CIA'
4.0
3.5
2.5
2.5
3.2
Pre(' b
7.7
5.6
5.2
4.9
6.0
Educadon
CIA ?
2.8
4.8
2:4
0.9
3.0
Prell b
4.1
5.5
3.8
2.5
4.2
Health
CIA ?
4.5
? 3.7
2.0
1.6
3.2
Prell b
5.9
4.7
4.0
3.6
4.7
Science
CIA ?
10.2
7.7
4.6
1.8
6.8
Prell b
7.7
6.9
4.6
2.2
5.9
Government administradon.
CIA ?
-4.2
3.5
3.5
1.5
1.0
Pfeil b
-2.1
4.3
3.9
1.7
2.0
? Estimates cited by Prell, based on earlier data than rest of
estimates in this paper.
b SCC Mark Prell, The Role of the Service Sector In Soviet GNP
and Productivity Estimates (Ph.D. dissertation, Massachusetts
Institute of Technology, 1987), pp. 218-224, 231-232.
possible. For several of the components of consump-
tion and investment, our growth estimates reflect
some upward or downward bias. Defense growth-
which is based on a nearly complete enumeration of
Soviet military purchases-also is subject to uncer-
tainty, but we do not believe the errors are predomi-
nantly in one direction.
Consumption. Consumption growth almost certainly
is overestimated for some components-durable goods
in particular-but underestimated for others-chiefly
housing, health, and education services. For consump-
tion of goods, our estimates of growth are based on
samples of products, mainly using data on:
? Quantities consumed for almost all foods and some -
soft goods.
"Far a detailed description of the methods used to estimate
consumption growth and a discussion of problems of estimation, see
USSR: Measures, pp. 337-352.
39
? Current values of retail sales, deflated by official
Soviet indexes of retail prices, for durables and
about 65 percent of soft goods."
Estimates of the growth of food consumption are
subject to possible understatement because of the
preponderance of quantity data in the sample. Quality
improvements probably occur slowly in this case,
however, so bias is not likely to be appreciable. In
fact, charges of deterioration in the quality of some
staples, such as bread, appear fairly regularly in the
Soviet press. For soft goods, on the other hand, and
especially for durables, estimates of consumption
growth probably are biased upward because the
Soviet retail price indexes we use to deflate retail
sales understate actual inflation.
"The sample for soft goods also includes data on the value of
clothing production in comparable prices, which are counted here in
the 65 percent of the sample attributed to deflated retail sales data.
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On balance, then, we suspect that the growth of
consumption of goods is overestimated. Recent esti-
mates by Soviet economic research institutes of
changes in retail prices provide a rough check on this
judgment. These estimates indicate that prices rose at
average annual rates of 1.5 to 3 percent between 1970
and 1987 (see table 11). In comparison, the index of
retail prices derived from our estimates of goods
consumption increased at average rates of 1.5 to 2
percent annually during the same period." The extent
to which we underestimate inflation and overestimate
real growth probably is less than these figures suggest,
however; because the Soviet estimates of price change
apphrently reflect some improvements in product mix
and 'quality as well as "pure" inflation.
As for consumer services, housing growth on the end-
use side of GNP is estimated in the same way as on
the sector-of-origin side and so is understated for the
same reasons. Estimates of consumption of health and
education services, on the other hand, are based on
deflated material purchases as well as on the labor
inputs used in estimating GNP growth by sector of
origin." The inclusion of these purchases offsets at
least some of the downward bias that affects the
sector-of-origin estimates of growth because the defla-
tor is our estimated index of retail prices, which
probably understates inflation.
Investment. Our estimates of investment growth de-
pend mainly on trends in the two largest components
of this GNP category: new construction and installa-
tion activity and acquisition of new machinery." The
"This index ii calculated by comparing our estimates of real
consumption of goods purchased through the retail trade network
with Soviet retail trade data in current prices. For more informa-
tion, see USSR: Measures, p. 351; and Gertrude E. Schroeder and
Barbara S. Severin, "Soviet Consumption and Income Policies in
Perspective," in Joint Economic Committee, Congress of the
United States, Soviet Economy in a New Perspective (Washington:
US Government Printing Office, 1976), pp. 631-632, 651.
"Material expenditures are included in our estimates of consump-
tion of these services because their costs include the materials used
in production as well as labor. Value added, as already pointed out,
excludes material costs.
" These components make up about three-fourths of the investment
category of GNP, which also includes net additions to livestock and
capital repair?again consisting of construction activity and ma-
chincry acquisition. Official Soviet investment statistics include
only new construction and new machinery. As noted earlier,
_ory change is part of outlays n.e.c. in our estimates of GNP
growth.
Table 11 Percent average annual rates
USSR: Comparison of CIA and
Soviet Estimates of Inflation
in Retail Prices, 1971-87
CIA ? Soviet Research Institutes Official
Soviet d
Banks ?
Gosplan ?
1971-75 1.6
2.0
NA
?0.1
1976-80 1.9
2.6
NA
0.7
1981-85 2.1
2.1
1.6
1.0
1986-87 2.3
NA
3.0
1.5
? Based on retail sales of consumer goods in current and constant
1982 established prices.
b Calculated from N. Burins and V. VOlbdina, "Milliardy as
sbernizhkakh," Ekonomicheskaya gazeta (No. 18, 1989), 0. 12.
? Inflation estimates include changes in retail prices of some
consumer services, as well as goods. See A. Shmarov and N.
Kirichenko, "Inflyatsionny `vsplesk': maulitaby i prichiny," Ekono-
micheskaya gazeta (No. 13, 1989), p. 12.
d Narodnoye khozyaystvo SSSR v 1987g. (Moscow: Finansy i
statistika, 1988), p. 433; and Narodnoye khozyayssvo SSSR v 1985
g. (Moscow: Finansy i statistika, 1986), p. 478.
new construction component is estimated as total
construction activity?based on the sector-of-origin
estimates discussed in the preceding section?minus
repair of worn out capital stock. Capital repair esti-
mates are derived mainly from budgetary expendi-
tures on repair of plant and equipment, deflated by
price indexes for construction and machinery, respec-
tively." This procedure is subject to inaccuracies, as
already discussed, but we do not believe that bias is a
problem.
We estimate the rate of increase of the machinery
component of investment on the basis of official
Soviet data in comparable prices, which have been
" For the details of these estimates, see USSR: Measures, pp.
121. In official Soviet statistics, as in GNP by sector of origin,
construction includes both new construction activity and capital
Muir.
' 40
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widely criticized by Western and Soviet economists."
There is general agreement that these data are subject
to some disguised inflation in the prices of domestical-
ly produced or imported machinery, or both.
Opinions about the extent of this inflation vary con-
siderably, however. In a survey of unofficial Soviet
literature on the subject, Vladimir Kontorovich and
Boris Rumer have derived estimates of disguised
inflation at average annual rates ranging from 1.5 to
3 percent during the early 1970s and from 3 to 6.5
percent during the late 1970s." Bergson, however, has
presented a case for much lower inflation rates?
averaging up to 1 percent per year in the early 1970s
and at most 3 percent annually in the late 1970s.".
In large part, these differences in estimates of dis-
guised inflation depend on judgments about the rela-
tionship between official Soviet statistics on machin-
ery investment and machinery output. Kontorovich
and Rumer argue that methods of compiling both
kinds of statistics are similar enough to be subject to
about the same extent of disguised inflation. If they
" The Western articles include Abram Bergson, "On Soviet Real
Investment Growth," Soviet Studies (July 1987): pp. 406-424;
Stanley H. Cohn. "Response to Alec Nove," Soviet Studies (April
1981): pp. 296-299; Philip Hanson. "The CIA. the TsSU and the
Real Growth of Soviet Investment," Soviet Studies (October 1984):
pp. 571-581; Hanson's "Soviet Real Investment Growth: A Reply
to Bergson," Soviet Studies (July 1987): pp. 425-430; Vladimir
Kontorovich, "Inflation in the Soviet Investment and Capital Stock
Series," Soviet Studies (April 1989): pp. 318-329; Kontorovich and
Boris Rumer, Inflation in the Soviet Investment Complex (prince-
ton Junction, N.J.: Command Economies Research, May 1988);
Alec Move. "A Note on Growth, Investment and Price Indices,"
Soviet Studies (January 1981): pp. 142-145; Nove's "Reply to
Stanley H. Cohn," Soviet Studies (April 1981): pp. 296-299; Move's
"Has Soviet Growth Ceased?" Manchester Statistical Society ((5
November 1983); Move's "Soviet Real Investment Growth: Are
Investment Volumes Overstated? A Reply to Bergson," Soviet
Studies (July 1987): pp. 431-433: Rumer's "Soviet Estimates of the
Rate of Inflation," Soviet Studies (April 1989): pp. 298-317; Peter
Wiles. "Soviet Consumption and Investment Prices and the Mean-
ingfulness of Real Investment," Soviet Studies (April 1982): pp.
289-295.
" Inflation in the Soviet Investment Complex, pp. 46-58, 63-69.
""On Soviet Real Investment Growth," pp. 408-410, 420.
41
are correct, comparisons of CIA and Soviet estimates
of the growth of machinery output (like those in table
8) suggest that such inflation could have a substantial
impact on the domestic component of machinery
investment.
On the other hand, as Bergson paints out, Soviet data
on machinery investment have shown considerably
slower growth than official statistics on machinery
output. In fact, machinery investment has increased
at rates quite similar to those of CIA estimates of the
output of producer durables?the type of machinery
used for investment?when these measures are adjust-
ed to a comparable basis. Moreover, two of the Soviet
authors cited by Kontorovich and Rumer have pub-
lished estimates of inflation in both machinery invest-
ment and machinery output, and their inflation rates
are lower for investment."
Before comparing machinery investment with our
estimates of producer durables output (below), we first
adjust the investment measure to subtract imports,
which enter investment but not domestic production,
and to add exports, which enter domestic production
but not investment. Data on imports and exports of
machinery are published in official foreign trade
yearbooks as values in current foreign trade prices."
The uncertainties involved in making these values
comparable to those used in Soviet investment statis-
tics are considerable, however. Perhaps the major
area of uncertainty concerns the extent to which
imports are deflated?fully, partially, or not at all?
so we test alternative adjustments in which deflated
imports and imports in current prices are subtracted
" See V.K. Fartsman, Proizvodstvennyy potentsial SSSR: voprosy
prognozirovaniya (The Productive Potential of the USSR: Problems
of Forecasting) (Moscow, Ekonomika, 1987), pp. 72, 138; and
Palterovicb, "Problemy isporzovaniya strategicheskikh i taktiches-
kikh rezervov mashinostroyeniya," p. 590.
"These import and export data are for the foreign trade category
consisting of machinery, equipment, and transportation facilities.
adjusted to exclude passenger automobiles.
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from investment." Further uncertainties arise in con-
verting foreign trade prices to domestic prices " and in
identifying any lags between imports-or produc-
tion-of machinery and deliveries to investment."
Considering all these uncertainties, average annual
growth rates Of adjusted machinery investment and
producer durables output are quite close (see table 12
and figure 9)." This suggests that both measures are
subject to similar rates of disguised inflation, which
we believe are unlikely to exceed the upper limits
proposed by Bergson. As mentioned above (in the
discussion of table 9), our estimates of output growth
could be o?erslatcd by as much as I to 2 percentage
" For Soviet statements that the imports included in investment are
not fully deflated. set the sources cited in Kontorovich and Rumer.
Inflation in the Soviet Investment Complex, pp. 18-19: and Fal'ts-
man, Proirvodstvennyy potentsial SSSR, p. 27.
We calculate deflators for the 1970s by dividing official values of
machinery imports and exports in current prices by values in
comparable prices derived from V. Sertsovkiy, "Some Economic-
Statistical Methods of the USSR Foreign Trade Development
Analysis in the Ninth and Tenth Five-Year-Plan Periods," Foreign
Trade (No. 5, 1982): pp. 37-42. We extend these deflators forward
to the 1980s by splicing them to Hungarian price indexes for that
nation's imports and exports of machinery.
The machinery import deflator is extended backward to the
1950s and 1960s by assuming an average annual inflation rate of 1
percent-about the same as the rate of price change for total
imports during those years. The deflator for machinery exports is
extended backward to the 1960s by splicing it to indexes of
machinery export prices published in N. Mitrofanova, "Tendentsii
dvizheniya kontraktnyky tsen v torgovle stran SEV" (Tendencies in
the Movement of Contract Prices in the Trade of CEMA Coun-
tries), Voprosy ekonomiki (No. 8. 1978): pp. 101-106. The prices of
machinery exports are assumed not to have changed during the
1950s.
" We assume that the values of imports and exports in current
domestic prices are the same in all years as the official values in
current foreign trade prices. The basis for this assumption is
research by Vladimir Treml and Barry Kostinsky indicating that
domestic prices of machinery are linked closely to foreign trade
prices. Their research also indicates that the closeness of this
linkage has not changed much over time. See Domestic Value of
Soviet Foreign Trade: Exports and Imports in the 1972 Input-
Output Table, Foreign Economic Report No. 20 (US Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, October 1982). pp. 19-24, 44,
53-57.
" Because delays in installing machinery are common in the Soviet
economy, we have tested a one-year lag before production or
imports reach investment. This lag has little effect on the compari-
son between adjusted investment and producer durables output, so
it is not included in the estimates shown in table 12 and figure 9.
"These estimates update the results cited by Bergson. which were
first presented in USSR: Measures. pp. 203-207.
Table 12 Percent average annual rates
USSR: Comparison of Growth of
Adjusted Machinery Investment
and Producer Durables Output, 1951-87 a
Machinery Investment Plus
Exports and Minus:
Producer
burables
Output
Deflated
Imports
Current-Price
Imports
1951-55
9.0
10.8
11.4
1956-60
13.9
13.3
12.5
1961-65
10.4
9.9
9.1
1966-70
8.2
8.0
7.2
1971-75
7.6
6.6
8.9
1976-80
6.6
5.4
4.3
1981-85
? ??
3.4
1.4
3.2
1986-0
5.9
5.5
2.7
1951-87
8.3
7.7 ,
7.7
1966-87
6.4
5.3
5.6
A See text for discussion of derivation of estimates.
points per year for civilian machinery, of which
producer durables constitute about 85 percent. Thus
domestic production could contribute an overstate-
ment of at most 2 percentage points annually to
disguised inflation in the entire machinery component
of investment. If imports are not deflated, the annual
growth of machinery investment could be exaggerated
by another percentage point during the 1970s, for
which our import price indexes seem fairly reliable.
We know very little about changes in the prices of
machinery imports in other years, but inflation rates
probably were much slower.
Our estimates of total investment growth, therefore,
are likely to reflect disguised inflation in the machin-
ery component, but not in the construction compo-
nent. We tentatively accept Bergson's figure of 3
percentage points per year as an upper limit on
overstatement of the growth of machinery investment
during the late 1970s. The impact of disguised infla-
tion may have been similar in the 1980s, but it
probably was smaller in earlier periods. Machinery
constitutes about 40 percent of total investment in the
42
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base year, so taking 40 percent of 3 percentage points
suggests that the upward bias in total investment
growth, at its peak, may be slightly over 1 percentage
point per year."
Whatever its impact on our estimates, disguised infla-
tion almost certainly affects official Soviet investment
statistics to a greater extent. This implies an exagger-
ation of official data on capital growth, which we use
" In this calculation, we assume that the machinery and construc-
tion components of capital repair are subject to the same derive of
disguised inflation as the respective components of new investment.
Machinery comprises about 40 percent of investment regardless of
whether capital repair is included or excluded.
43
in adjusting GNP to factor cost. The likely result is an
overstatement of the capital stocks?and the GNP
shares-.of sectors with newer, faster-growing equip-
ment lrelative to those of sectors with older, slower-
growing equipment."
Base-Year Weights
The factor cost adjustment provides better weights for
1
measuring changes in the Soviet economy's potential
to produce goods and services than do established
"Inflation in the growth of capital inputs undoubtedly results also
in some understatement of the growth of capital productivity.
Productivity estimates, however, are outside the scope of this paper.
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prices. There are some problems, however, in estimat-
ing the contributions of labor and capital to base-year
GNP by sector of origin, and, as indicated above, we
have not yet developed estimates of the contribution
of land and other natural resources.
Labor Income. Base-year estimates of labor income in
established prices are considered quite reliable; data
on wage rates and employment are obtained directly
from official Soviet sources for most sectors of origin.
For the reasons discussed earlier, moreover, incomes
in established prices (except for military pay) do not
need to be adjusted to factor cost.
But incomes from private economic activity are prob-
ably underestimated 'in some sectors, such as agricul-
ture and various consumer services. For example,
Treml has claimed that household Purchases of food
from collective farm markets in urban areas exceed
our estimates by substantial amounts.'? If correct, this
claim implies that household incomes, which must
equal outlays, exceed our estimates as well. Further
investigation is required, however, because the claim
is based on a survey of emigres who were atypical of
the Soviet population and who had to rely on their
memories of past purchases. Treml also maintains
that incomes from privately provided services arc
higher than we have estimated." So far, the Soviets
have published very little information about the valu-
ation and coverage of the data on which his estimates
oral-vices are based.
Returns on Capital and Land. As part of the factor
cost adjustment, returns on capital are estimated from
official Soviet data on stocks of fixed and working
capital and an assumed rate of return. We believe
that these returns measure capital's contribution to
GNP better than the incomes removed from value
added in established prices?indirect taxes, subsidies,
and reported profits. Still, the estimates are subject to
uncertainty on several counts. The valuation of fixed
? See "Purchases of Food From Private Sources in Soviet Urban
Areas," Berkeley-Duke Occasional Papers on the Second Economy
in the USSR (Paper No. 3, September 1985).
"See "Income From Private Sources Recognized by Official Soviet
Statistics," Berkeley-Duke Occasional Papers on the Second Econ-
omy in the USSR (Paper No. II, December 1987).
capital?taken from official data on stocks in compa-
rable 1973 prices?is not adjusted for the effects of
actual price changes or of disguised inflation between
1973 arkd 1982."
In the absence of data on the results of actual
investment, moreover, the assumed rate of return-12
percent?is based on Soviet guidelines for planning
investment projects. Nonetheless, this rate seems rea-
sonable in that it is fairly close to rates of return
implied by studies of US productivity. Rates of 8 to
12 percent can be calculated from the work of Dale
Jorgenson and his associates on the 1948-79 period,
and a rate of 11 percent on capital excluding housing
is indicated by Edward Denison's research on the late
1950s."
Judith Thornton has argued, however, that our factor
cost adjustment procedure should be revised to substi-
tute reported profits for calculated returns on capital.
That is, she agrees that indirect taxes and subsidies
should be removed but believes that established prices
excluding these elements reflect the values planners
attach to output better than adjusted factor costs do."
Her argument implies that current price-setting prac-
tices provide adequate returns on capital, in part by
allowances for profits that include capital charges.
This may be the case for some branches of industry?
" Neither, as mentioned in footnote 35, is there an adjustment for
divergences of the 1982 prices of investment goods that go into
capital stock from 1982 factor coot.
"See Dale Jorgenson, Frank Gollop, and Barbara Fraumeni,
Productivity and US. Economic Growth (Cambridge, Mass.: Har-
vard University Press, 1987), p. 268; and Edward F. Denison,
assisted by Jean-Pierre Poullier, Why Growth Rates Differ (Wash-
ington: Brookings Institution, 1967). p. 142. For this comparison,
we adjust the returns estimated by Jorgenson et al. to exclude
depreciation, which has been roughly 3 percent of net capital stock.
" Thomton's recommendation amounts to calculating "ruble factor
cost" as Bergson did before sufficient capital data were available to
estimate "adjusted factor cost." She does not specify, however,
whether she believes planners' valuations reflect the production
potential of the economy--as the adjusted factor cost standard is
intended to do?or the preferences of consumers or planners?as a
welfare standard should. See "Twenty-Five Years of Soviet Nation-
al Income Accounting: From Adjusted Factor Cost to Ultra-
Adjusted Factor Cost," ACES Bulletin (Fall 1983): pp. 53-67.
? 44
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=11.
Table 13
USSR: Distribution of 1982 GNP by Sector of Origin With
Alternative Rates of Return on Capital and Land
Percent shares
Present
Estimates
Returns on Capital
Returns on Land
8 Percent ?
20 Percent ?
Reported
Profits
5 Percent b
10 Percent b
Total GNP
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Industry
32.4
31.9
33.1
39.2
32.0
31.6
Construction
7.8
7.9
7.7
8.1
7.4
7.0
Agriculture
20.6
21.0
20.0
17.7
22.1
23.6
Transportation
9.5
9.4
9.7
10.2
9.1
8.6
Communications
0.9
0.9
0.9
1.2
0.8
0.8
Trade
6.5
6.0
7.2
6.0
6.2
5.8
Services
20.1
20.4
19.7
15.4
20.4
20.6
Military personnel
1.9
2.1
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.7
Other branches
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.2
? Percent of capital stock, net of depreciation.
b Percent of GNP at factor cost, allocated arbitrarily to industry (20
percent to fuel and 5 percent to metals), agriculture (50 percent),
and services (25 percent to housing).
as suggested by the econometric evidence she cites-
but profits in much of the rest of the economy-
notably agriculture and services-are artificially low
or nonexistent.
In any case, the base-year distribution of GNP by
sector of origin changes very little with variations in
the rate of return on capital. Adopting Thornton's
recommendations for valuing GNP would affect the
distribution somewhat more but still would not alter it
greatly (see table 13).
At present, we do not estimate returns on land, but
William Liefert has developed estimates of rents on
agricultural land and on fuel and metal resources that
provide some useful information." We can roughly
gauge the effects of allowing for rents by assuming
hypothetical values of returns on land-5 percent and
10 percent of GNP at factor cost-and arbitrarily
allocating these values among industry (fuel and
"See "fle Share of Agriculture in Soviet GNP: 1970-85," CPE
Agriculture Report (November-December 1988) pp. 22-26.
45
metals), agriculture, and services (housing). The ef-
fects of these assumptions on the base-year distribu-
tion of GNP by sector of origin are not large (table
13).
Net Impact of Errors on Total GNP Growth
Overall, we believe that our estimates of total GNP
growth are not far from the mark. Growth is subject
to sources of both overestimation and underestima-
tion, so errors in opposite directions offset each other
to some extent. To evaluate the reliability of these
growth estimates, we compare them below with offi-
cial and unofficial Soviet figures and then examine
the results of rough sensitivity tests of the effects of
errors in estimates of various GNP components.
Comparisons With Soviet Estimates. The Soviets
publish two official measures-called national income
produced and national income used-which are often
referred to collectively as net material product (NMP)
by Western economists. These measures differ from
GNP in definition and coverage by excluding depreci-
ation (the "gross" element of GNP) and services that
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Table 14
USSR: Comparison of CIA Estimates of Overall Growth With
Official and Unofficial Soviet Estimates, 1961-87
Percent average annual rates
CIA Estimates
National Income Produced
National Income Used
_ GNP'
NMPb
Official
Selyunin and
Khanin d
Official e
Aganbegyan
1951-60
5.2
6.7
103
7.2
NA
NA
1961-65
4.8
4.9
6.5
4.4
5.7
NA
1966-70
4.9
5.2
7.8
4.1
7.2
5.5
1971-75
3.0
3.3
5.7
3.2
5.1
3.9
1976-80
1.9
1.8
4.3
1.0
3.8
2.1
1981-85
1.8
1.6
3.6
0.6
3.1
0.3
1986-87
2.7
2.4
3.2
2.0
2.4
NA
1951-85
3.8
4.3
6.9
3.9
NA
NA
1966-85
2.9
3.0
5.3
2.2
4.8
2.9
a Based on value added" at 1982 factor cost.
b GNP excluding services that do not contribute directly to material
output; based on value added in 1982 established prices.
See Narodnoye kho:yaystvo SSSR v 1987g. (Moscow: Finansy i
statistika, 1988), p: 7; and A.L. Vaynshteyn. Narodnyy dokhod
Rossii I SSSR (Moscow: Nauka. 1969). p. 110. ?
d Set Grigoriy Khanin. "Ekonomicheskiy rost: arternativnaya ot-
senka.,." Kommunist (No. 17, 1988): p. 85: and Vasiliy Selyunin and
Khanin. "Lukavaya tsifrar Novyy mir (No. 2. 1987): pp. 194-195.
e Set SSSR v tsifrakh v 1988 godu (Moscow: Finansy i statistika.
1989), p. 9: and A. G. Aganbegyan. "Programma korennoy peres-
troyki," Ekonontika i organi:atsiya promyshlennogo proizvodstva
(No. 11, 1987): pp. 6-7.
fSee Abel Aganbegyan. The Economic Challenge of Perestroika
(Bloomington, Ind.: Indiana University Press. 1988). p. 2 (graph).
do not contribute directly to material output." The
growth of both national income produced and national
income used consistently exceeds GNP growth (see
table 14), largely because of disguised inflation arising
from Soviet procedures for establishing comparable
prices for new products."
"Although NMP excludes the value added of nonmaterial services,
it does include the value of material inputs used in their production.
"The value of national income produced in current prices exceeds
that of national income used by the sum of losses of output
produced but not distributed to final purchasers and net gains or
losses of foreign exchange (converted to domestic rubles). See Treml
and Kostinsky, Domestic Value of Soviet Foreign Trade, pp. 7-11.
Growth rates of these two national income measures in comparable
prices also differ, apparently because of inconsistencies in the
procedures used to convert current prices to comparable prices. See
Thomas A. Wolf. "Foreign Trade and National Income Statistics
in the Soviet Union: A Comment," Soviet Studies (January 1987):
pp. 122-128, and "A Further Note on Foreign Trade and National
Income Statistics in the Soviet Union," Soviet Studies (April 1988):
pp. 320-325.
The growing stream of Soviet criticism of official
statistics noted above has yielded some unofficial
calculations of NMP growth that are well below
officially reported rates. In pioneering studies pub-
lished in the late 1960s, average growth rates of
national income produced were estimated at 6.5 to
7 percent per year between 1950 and about 1965-
compared with our estimate of about 6 percent and an
official rate of 9 percent." More recently, the most
comprehensive estimates are Selyunin and Khanin's
"Soviet estimates by Boris Mikhalevskiy and Yuriy Sokolov are
discussed in Frederick G. Denton, "A Recent Soviet Study of
Economic Growth 1951-63," Soviet Studies (April 1968): pp. 501-
509. A major Soviet study published after Denton's article is A.L.
Vaynshteyn. Narodnyy dokhod Rossii i SSSR (The National
Income of Russia and the USSR) (Moscow: Nauka, 1969).
46
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for national income produced. In addition, Abel
Aganbegyan, a prominent economic adviser to Gorba-
chev, has offered alternative estimates of the growth
of national income used.
These unofficial Soviet growth rates for NMP are
consistently closer to our estimates than to official
Soviet statistics (table 14). It is not surprising that
Selyunin and Khanin's figures are lower than ours
because they appear to be based on quantity data to a
greater extent." The derivation of Aganbegyan's fig-
ures is unclear, except that he says they reflect "more
realistic" price deflators than official statistics do.'"
?
Results of Sensitivity Tests. As mentioned earlier, our
confidence in estimates of the growth of total GNP
depends on both the reliability of growth estimates for
the individual sectors of origin and the accuracy of the
base-year weights of these sectors. Potential biases in
sectoral growth rates have been assessed by James
Noren, who found little net impact on total GNP
growth."' Following his approach?but varying the
specific assumptions somewhat?we can identify se-
lected branches of industry and services as the princi-
pal sources of bias in growth estimates:
? Some understatement of growth?by up to 1 per-
centage point per year?in industrial branches
where samples are dominated by quantity data?
primarily chemicals, construction materials, and
metals.
? An overstatement of machinery growth?where the
sample includes a large share of Soviet value data?
by 1 to 1.5 percentage points per year.
"Selyunin and Khanin's methods of estimating national income
growth are discussed in Khanin, "Puti sovershentvovaniya infor-
matsionnogo obespecheniya," pp. 63-64: and summarized in Eric-
son, "The Soviet Statistical Debate," p. 29.
The Economic Challenge of Perestroika (Bloomington, Ind.:
Indiana University Press, 1988), p. 2.
^ See "The New Look at Soviet Statistics: Implications for CIA
Measures of the USSR's Economic Growth," in CIA Conference
Report, The Impact of Gorbachev's Policies on Soviet Economic
Statistics (SOV 88-10049, July 1988), pp. 69-81. Noren's findings
are also discussed in CIA, Revisiting Soviet Economic Performance
Under Glasnost.. Implications for CIA Estimate: (SOY 88-10068,
September 1988), pp. 16-18.
47
? A downward bias of 1 to 3 percentage points per
year in the growth of housing, which is based on
living space.
? Downward biases of 1 to 2 percentage points per
year in the growth of those consumer and govern-
ment services for which estimates are based on labor
inputs.
The impact of these biases on total GNP growth is
evaluated roughly by first adjusting estimates of
average annual growth by sector of origin in 1951-87
to allow for the degrees of understatement or over-
statement (in percentage points) shown in table 15. -
The adjusted estimates of growth for eacere.767-Ve
then weighted by the sector's share of GNP at factor
cost, and adjusted growth rates of total GNP are
calculated.'" For purposes of this calculation, rates of
sectoral growth that are not believed to be biased in
any particular direction?even though some error is
likely?are not adjusted. The resulting impact on
total GNP growth turns out to be no more than a few
tenths of a percentage point per year.
Estimates of base-year weights by sector of origin also
are subject to error, but the likely impact on total
GNP growth is minor. Alternative rates of return on
capital and land (as in table 13) would affect GNP
growth by no more than one or two tenths of a
percentage point per year. The effects of another
potential source of error?underestimation of the
weights of private agriculture and services?cannot be
evaluated, however, without more information on the
growth of these activities than is presently available.
Avenues For Improvements hi Estimates
Research is under way?inside and outside the CIA?
that could help us refine our estimates of Soviet GNP.
1" Our calculation of the minimum (or maximum) degree of bias (in
percentage points) in total GNP growth is based on the minimum
(or maximum) degree of bias regardless of sign in the growth of
each sector. For example, a minimum bias of +1 percentage point
per year in the growth of machinery is combined with *minimum
bias of ?1 percentage mint, rather than ?3 percentage points, in
the growth of housing. If the minimum (or maximum) degrees of
sectoral bias including signs were used in the calculation, the range
of bias in estimates of total GNP growth would widen, but its
midpoint would remain close to zero.
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Table IS
USSR: Sens-itirity Tests of Potential Bias in
Estimates of GNP Growth
Percent
Weight
Growth
Estimate
1951.87
Assessment of Bias
Minimum Maximum
?
(Percentage Points)
Total GNP
100.0
3.8
-0.1 -0.3
Industry
32.4
5.5
+0.2
+0.3
Ferrous metals
1.9
5.2
-0.5
-1.0
Nonferrous metals
1.3
6.0
-0.5
-1.0
Fuel
3.1
5.5
Ox
OK
Electric power
2.3
8.1
OK
OK
Machinery
11.4
5.6
+0.8
+1.5
Chemical/
? 2.4
7.8
-0.3
-0.9
Wood, pulp, and paper
1.9
3.2
-0.2
-0.5
Construction materials
1.9
7.0
-0.3
-0.9
Light industry
2.2
4.3
+0.1
+0.4
Food industry
2.6
5.1
-0.1
-0.2
Other industry
1.3
5.5
NA
NA
Constmcdon
7.8
5.1
OK
OK
Agriculture
20.6
1.7
OK
OK
Transportadon
9.5
7.3
OK
OK
Communicadoas
0.9
6.6
OK
OK
Trade
6.5
5.4
OK
OK
Services
20.1
3.3
-0.7
-1.7
Housing
5.5
3.1
-1.0
-3.0
Utilities
1.3
6.0
-1.0
-3.0
Repair and personal care
1.6
5.1
+0.5
+1.0
Recreation
1.0
4.6
-0.5
-1.0
Education
3.9
3.0
-1.0
-2.0
Health
2.1
3.1
-1.0
-2.0
Science
2.2
6.2
OK
Ox
Credit and insurance
0.3
--2.0
-1.0
-2.0
Government administration
2.2
1.2
-0.5
-1.0
Military penonnel
1.9
0.8
OK
OK
Other branches
0.3
3.8
NA
NA
? Share of 1982 GNP.
b Average annual.
48
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Basis for Assessments of Minimum and
Maximum Bias in Table 15 a
Total GNP: weighted average of biases in component
sectors shown.
Total industry: weighted average of biases in compo-
nent sectors shown.
Ferrous metals, nonferrous metals: maximum bias
assumed to be ?I percentage point, following Noren.
Minimum taken as half of maximum.
Fuels, electric puwen 'inus assumed negligible, on
basis of table 8 (above).
Machinery: weighted average at-biases in component
sectors, as follows:
Automobiles, transportation machinery, military
machinery: bias assumed negligible, following Noren.
Other sectors with samples based on quantity
data: minimum bias assumed to be ?1 percentage.
point, maximum ?3 percentage points. Midpoint
matches Noren 's assumption (-2 percentage points)
for miscellaneous industrial sectors with samples of
this kind.
Sectors with samples based on value data: maxi-
mum bias taken as difference between Treml and CIA
estimates of average annual growth during 1966-86.
Minimum assumed to be half of maximum.
Chemicals: weighted average of biases in component
sectors, as follows:
Basic chemicals, organic synthetic products.
paints and lacquers: bias assumed negligible, following
Noren.
Other sectors with samples based on quantity
data: minimum and maximum biases assumed to be
?1 and ?3 perceruage points, respectively, as for
machinery sectors with samples of this kind.
Mineral chemicals (sample based on value data):
maximum bias assumed to be +1 percentage point,
following Noren. Minimum taken as half of
maximum.
Wood, pulp, and paper: weighted average of biases
in component sectors, as follows:
Logging, wood chemicals: bi'as assumed negligi-
ble, following Noren.
A Except for minor updates and revisions, these assessments are
based on James Noren. "The New Look at Soviet Statistics:
Implications for CIA Measures of the USSR's Economic Growth,"
in CIA Conference Report. The Impact of Gorbachev's Policies on
Soviet Economic Statistics (SOV 88-10049. July 1988). pp. 69-81.
Other sectors with samples based on quantity
data: minimum and maximum biases assumed to be
?1 and ?3 percentage points. respectively, as for
machinery sectors with samples of this kind.
Furniture (sample based on value data): minimum
bias assumed to be +I percentage point, maximum
+ 3 percentage points. Midpoint matches Noren 's as-
sumption (+ 2 percentage points) for miscellaneous
industrial sectors with samples of this kind.
Construction materials: weighted average of biases
in component sectors, as follows:
Cement, concrete, roofing materials,. other con-
struction materials: bias assumed negligible, following
Noren.
Other sectors with samples based on quantity
data: minimum and maximum biases assumed to be
?1 and ?3 percentage points, respectively, as for
machinery sectors with samples of this kind.
There are no construction materials sectors with
samples based on value data.
Light industry: weighted average of biases in com-
ponent sectors, as follows:
Fabrics (cotton, silk, wool, linen): bias assumed
negligible. following Noren.
Other sectors with samples based on quantity
data: minimum and maximum biases assumed to be
?1 and ?3 percentage points, respectively, as for
machinery sectors with samples of' this kind.
Sewn goods (sample based on value data): mini-
mum and maximum biases assumed to be +I and + 3
percentage points, respectively, as for furniture.
Food industry: weighted average of biases in compo-
nem sectors, as follows:
Confectionary products: minimum and maximum
biases assumed to be ?1 and ?3 percentage points,
respectively. Midpoint matches Noren 's assumption
(-2 percentage points) for this sector.
Other sectors with samples based on quantity
data: bias assumed negligible, following Noren.
There are no food industry sectors with samples
based on value data.
(continued)
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Basis for Assessments of Minimum and
Maximum Bias in Table 15 (continued)
Construction, agriculture, transportation, communi-
cations, trade: bias assumed negligible, following
Noren.
Total services: weighted average of biases in compo-
nent sectors shown.
Housing: maximum bias assumed to be ?3 per-
centage points, on basis of table 10 (above). Minimum
assumed to be ?1 percentage point?slightly less
than lower end of range suggested by table 10 because
we consider alternative estimates for this sector
especially likely to be overstated.
Utilities: minimum and maximum biases assumed
to be ?1 and ?3 percentage points, respectively, as
for industrial sectors with samples based on quantity
data.
Repair and personal care: minimum and maximum
biases assumed to be +0.5 and +1 percentage point.
respectively.
Recreation: minimum and maximum biases as-
sumed to be ?0.5 and ?1 percentage point,
respectively.
Education, health: minimum and maximum biases
assumed to be ?1 and ?2 percentage points, respec-
tively, on basis of table 10 (above).
Science: bias assumed negligible.
Credit and insurance: minimum and maximum
biases assumed to be ?1 and ?2 percentage points,
respectively.
Government administration: minimum and maxi-
mum biases assumed to be ?0.5 and ?1 percentage
point, respectively, on basis of table 10 (above).
Military personnel: bias assumed negligible, follow-
ing Norm.
The main focus of CIA research is on the estimation
of growth, especially for key GNP components. Work
is currently under way on:
? Updating our sample of industrial products, particu-
larly the machinery sample.
? Evaluating the results of internal and external
research on the impact of disguised inflation on.
estimates of the growth of machinery investment
and output.
? Studying potential methods of incorporating pro-
ductivity gains in our estimates of the growth of
services.
? Developing better estimates of the impact of foreign
trade on overall Soviet economic growth.`?3
Outside research could also contribute to better esti-
mates of base-year GNP. The work of Grossman and
Treml on the second economy is providing important
information about the scope of private activity in the .
late 1970s, although data for estimating the growth of
such activity remain inadequate. On another front,
Liefert's research on returns on land includes infor-
mation that should be useful in our own efforts to
estimate such returns.
Glasnost, Perestroyka, and Soviet Statistics
Gorbachev's policies of glasnost and perestroyka are
beginning to affect both the statistical system in the
USSR and the operation of the Soviet economy more
generally. Because the State Committee for Statistics
(Goskomstat) obtains much of its information from
enterprise reporting on plan fulfillment, new economic
incentives for workers and managers can influence the
basic data. Over the next few years, systemic changes
'a' For the United States, the Department of Commerce estimates
the growth of the volume of goods and services over which the
country has "command" as a result of its current production, and
we hope to develop similar estimates for the USSR. The growth of
command differs from the growth-of the usual. production-based
measure of GNP when the relationship between export prices and
import prices (the country's "terms of trade") changes. See Edward
F. Denison, "International Transactions in Measures of the Na-
tion's Production," Survey of Current Business (May 1981): pp. 17-
28.
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Changes in the Soviet Statistical System
Glasnost is prompting the release of some additional
economic statistics, including both the reappearance
of data previously withheld and the publication of
new kinds of data bearing on current economic
policies. 3 For example, data on grain and alcohol -
production have been restored to official statistical
yearbooks. Moreover, special statistical compendia
on subjects such as industry, agriculture, and labor?
which have not been issued since the early 1970s?
began to be published in late 1988. Goskomstat also
has begun to issue press releases on a wide range of
topics, often with policy implications, including the
progress of the modernization drive, the health of the
population, and current economic performance.
Many of the data appearing as a result of glasnost are
of kinds seldom published, and perhaps pot collected,
in the past. New data on services, for instance, are
being used to illustrate the effects of policies to
encourage individual and cooperative activities in
that sector. Some additional value data in current
prices also are beginning to appear as greater empha-
sis is placed on financial indicators of enterprise
performance, like profits and costs.
Despite glasnost, far fewer economic statistics are
available for the USSR than for Western countries.
In fact, the amount of information included in the
For a discussion of recent changes in the publication of data, see
Rose Ann McHenry. "Changes in the Availability of Economic
Data Under Gorbachev," in CIA Conference Report, The Impact of
Gorbachev's Policies on Soviet Economic Statistics(SOV 88-10049,
July 1988). For background on earlier publication policies. see
Michael Kaser. "The Publication of Soviet Statistics." in Treml
and Hardt. eds.. Soviet Economic Statistics. chapter 3.
most recent official statistical yearbooks probably
remains below that released in the early to mid-
1970s. although it has increased in the last few years.
Data reflecting poorly on the USSR, moreover, are
still suppressed from time to time?as at the begin-
ning of 1987, when industrial performance suffered a
variety of setbacks and a number of the usual
statistics on production were not released.
The application of perestroyka to the Soviet statisti-
cal system is creating pressure on Goskomstat to
reexamine the kinds of data it collects and the
measures of economic performance it derives from
those data.b Increased emphasis is to be placed on
gauging the effects of economic policies and 'on
making related indicators consistent with each other.
Traditional gross output statistics?which encourage
the wasteful use of energy and raw materials- are to
be deemphasized. Instead, the focus is to turn to
measures offinal uses of output and to income
measures in key sectors of origin. The distinction
between final and intermediate uses of output is to be
refined, and estimates of the linkages between pro-
duction and use are to be improved. In addition,
economic comparisons of the USSR with other coun-
tries are to be expanded, and estimates conforming to
such Western concepts as GNP are to be developed
for use in these comparisons.
b For further discussion of the restructuring of the Soviet statisti-
cal system. see Vladimir Treml. "Perestroyka and Soviet Statis-
tics." in CIA Conference Report, The Impact of Gorbachev's
Policies on Soviet Economic Statistics.
are likely to affect the comparability of measures of
economic performance in the USSR?obtained either
from our GNP estimates or from official Soviet
statistics?with past figures.
Some additional economic information is being pub-
lished, including new kinds of data bearing on current
policies (see inset). On the other hand, some tradition-
51
at kinds of data?especially on production in physical
units?may stop appearing as their importance for
economic planning diminishes. Substantial changes in
the kinds of Soviet data available could require
modifications in some of our procedures for estimat-
ing GNP. Without more information on how the new
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data are likely to differ from the old, it is impossible
to predict the impact of such changes on the quality of
our GNP estimates.
Another recent change in the statistical system is a
reinvigoration of efforts against falsification in report-
ing data. For example, there were 15,000 prosecutions
for "distortions of statistics" in 1987.'e" If successful,
this anticorruption campaign is likely to reduce the
extent of exaggeration in production data and thus
lower our estimates of GNP growth over the next few
years. On the other hand, pressure to meet targets for
traditional indicators like gross output?combined
with simultaneous requirements to implement sweep-
ing changes in the economic system?may increase ,
the temptation for enterprise managers to overstate
production. Increasing overstatement could boost
growth artifiCially, if only for a short time.
Besides its potential effects on the statistical system,
perestroyka is bringing more general changes in the
Soviet economy. Some of these changes are likely to
affect our ability to measure economic performance
during the next few years:
? Official encouragement of individual and coopera-
tive economic activities appears to be spurring the
growth of a number of consumer-oriented sectors.
To the extent that this growth reflects a shift from
illegal, unreported activities to legal, reported ones,
consumption growth will be exaggerated for a time.
? Irvestlya (27 April 1988): p. 1.
? Recently strengthened incentives for innovation are
reported to be achieving some results. Because
innovation brings new products, whose pricing is a
primary source of disguised inflation, the extent of
overstatement in estimates of GNP growth?and
especially in official Soviet statistics?could in-
crease. On the other hand, the extent of overstate-
ment could decrease if the rate of genuine rather
than token innovation rises.
? The authority to set prices is to be decentralized
gradually as part of the transition to self-financing.
If actual inflation accelerates as administrative
controls on prices weaken, the impact of disguised
inflation on our estimates of GNP growth, and on
. official Soviet statistics, probably will increase
temporarily.
The effects of all of these changes are likely to
diminish as the economy adjusts and disappear after a
few years. During the adjustment period, however, the
interpretation of Soviet economic growth will require
special caution.
52
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Appendix A
Trends in Soviet GNP,
1950-87
This appendix presents detailed tables of the CIA's
latest estimates of trends in real Soviet GNP during
the 1950-87 period. Unless otherwise specified, all
estimates reflect 1982 factor cost weights.
Tables appear in the following order:
A-1. USSR: GNP by Sector of Origin at 1982 Factor
Cost
A-2. USSR: Average Annual Growth of GNP by
Sector of Origin
A-3. USSR: Annual Growth of GNP by Sector of
Origin
A-4. USSR: Indexes of GNP by Sector of Origin
A-5. USSR: Shares of GNP by Sector of Origin
A-6. USSR: GNP by End Use at 1982 Factor Cost
A-7. USSR: Average Annual Growth of GNP by
End Use
53
A-8. USSR: Annual Growth of GNP by End Use
A-9. USSR: Indexes of GNP by End Use
A-10. USSR: Shares" of GNP by End Use
A-11. USSR: Consumption in 1982 Established
Prices
? A-12. USSR: Average Annual Growth of Consump-
tion in 1982 Established Prices
A-13. USSR: Consumption Per Capita in 1982
Established Prices
A-14. USSR: Average Annual Growth of Consump-
tion Per Capita in 1982 Established Prices
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16 : CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
?
or.
/
1
Table A-1
USSR: GNP by Sector of Origin at 1982 Factor Cost
Billion 1982 rubles
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
Industry
32.9
37.0
40.0
43.3
47.3
52.2
55.8
59.5
64.2
69.9
Ferrous metals
2.1
2.4
2.8
3.1
3.3
3.7
3.9
4.2
4.5
4.8
Nonferrous metals
1.1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.7
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.5
Fuel
3.0
3.2
3.5
3.7
4.1
4.7
5.1
5.8
6.2
6.7
Electric power
1.0
1.2
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.6
2.9
Machinery
11.4
12.6
13.6
14.5
15.6
17.3
18.1
18.7
19.6
21.2
Chemicals
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.5
2.7
3.0
Wood,. pulp, and paper
4.6
5.2
5.4
5.6
6.2
6.5
6.7
7.2
7.9
8.6
Construction materials
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.9
2.1
2.5
2.8
3.3.
4.0
4.6
Light industry
3.3
3.9
4.1
4.5
5.0
5.3
5.5
5.8
6.2
6.7
Food industry
? 2.7
3.1
3.4
3.8
4.0
4.3
4.9
5.2
5.6
6.2
Other industry
1.3
1.5
1.6
1.7
? 1.9
2.1
2.2
2.4
2.5
2.8
Construction
9.1
10.4
11.4
12.5
13.9
15.6
16.9
18.7
21.1
23.7
Agriculture
75.9
66.5
71.0
73.7
75.6
84.6
99.0
95.5
103.8
105.0
Traniportation ?
5.0
5.6
. 6.1
6.8
7.5
9.0
10.1
11.6
12.9
14.3
Freight
3.5
3.9
4.3
4.7
5.2
6.4
7.4
8.4
9.4
10.6
Passenger
1.5
1.7
1.8
2.0
2.3
2.6
2.8
3.1
3.5
3.8
Communications
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.3
Trade
6.6
7.2
8.0
8.9
9.9
10.9
11.8
12.8
14.0
15.0
Services
44.5
45.8
47.2
48.1
49.7
50.6
52.0
53.4
56.0
58.3
Housing
13.3
13.7
14.0
14.4
14.8
15.2
15.7
16.4
17.2
18.2
Utilities
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
2.0
2.2
Repair and personal care
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.7
3.1
Recreation
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.7
2.1
2.5
2.8
3.0
3.3
3.5
Education
9.2
9.5
9.9
10.1
10.6
11.0
11.1
11.4
11.6
11.9
Health
4.7
4.9
5.1
5.3
5.7
6.0
6.2
6.5
6.8
7.2
Science
1.7
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.4
2.7
3.0
3.3
3.7
Credit and insurance
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.8
Government administration
10.0
10.0
10.1
9.8
9.6
8.4
8.3
7.9
8.0
7.8
General agricultural programs
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.7
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.4
7.--
ForestrY ---
0.9
0.9
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
State administration
4.6
4.5
4.4
4.3
3.8
3.4
3.2
3.0
3.0
2.9
Culture
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
? 0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
Municipal services
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
Civilian police
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.2
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.7
Military personnel
9.3
11.6
12.4
11.4
10.6
9.9
9.7
9.1
8.3
7.8
Other branches
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
national product
Gross nati
184.3
185.3
197.4
206.0
216.0
234.4
257.0
262.4
282.3
296.1
GNP in established prices
179.0
185.1
197.7
208.2
220.6
239.9
262.4
270.7
291.8
308.4
54
ILLEGIB
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Table A-1 (continued)
USSR: GNP by Sector of Origin at 1982 Factor Cost
Billion 1982 rubks
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
Industry
75.1
80.5
86.6
90.9
96.9
103.1
108.6
116.8
123.9
130.5
Ferrous metals
5.3
5.8
6.3
6.6
7.1
7.6
8.1
8.6
9.0
9.3
Nonferrous metals
2.7
2.9
3.2
3.5
3.7
4.0
4.4
4.8
5.1
5.4
Fuel
7.2
7.6
8.1
81
9.4
9.9
10.6
11.3
11.7
12.3
Elcctric 7..,77.?!:-
3 2
3.5
4.1
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.4
7.0
7.5
Machinery
23.3
25.5
28.3
29.2
31.2
32.8
34.1
37.2
39.9
42.6
Chemicals
3.3
3.6
3.9
4.4
5.0
5.7
6.2
6.7
7.2
7.6
Wood, pulp, and paper
8.6
8.6
8.7
9.1
9.5
9.7
9.7
10.2
10.5
10.6
Construction materials
5.1
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.3
6.8
7.2
7.7
8.1
8.2
Light industry
7.0
7.3
7.5
7.6
7.9
8.1
8.6
9.3
9.9
10.5
Food industry
6.4
6.9
7.3
7.6
8.1
9.0
9.4
10.1
10.6
11.3
Other industry
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.1
4.3
4.6
4.9
5.2
Construction
25.3
26.6
27.7
28.8
30.3
32.1
33.3
35.8
37.5
38.9
Agriculture
102.7
109.0
104.4
85.9
113.7
118.1
123.1
122.2
130.4
122.1
Transportation
15.9
17.2
18.6
20.4
22.5
25.5
27.3
29.8
32.0
33.6
Freight
11.7
12.5
13.4
14.6
16.3
18.7
19.7
21.5
22.8
23.7
Passenger
4.2
4.6
5.2
5.8
6.2
6.8
7.6
8.3
9.2
9.9
Communications
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.9
2.0
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
Trade
16.0
16.7
17.7
18.4
19.1
20.3
21.8
23.5
25.2
26.6
Services
60.7
63.1
66.3
69.0
72.6
76.2
79.4
82.8
86.6
90.0
Housing
19.2
20.2
21.0
21.9
22.6
23.3
24.0
24.8
25.6
26.3
Utilities
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.1
4.3
4.5
Repair and personal care
3.2
3.4
3.5
3.7
4.0
4.3
4.6
5.0
5.3
5.7
Recreation
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.0
4.2
4.5
4.5
4.8
5.0
5.1
Education
12.2
12.8
13.7
14.4
15.4
16.3
17.1
17.7
18.4
19.0
Health
7.5
7.8
8.1
8.3
8.7
9.0
9.4
9.6
10.1
10.5
Science
4.2
4.7
5.2
5.6
6.1
6.4
6.9
7.2
7.6
8.2
Credit and insurance
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
Government administration
7.5
6.9
7.1
7.1
7.4
7.8
8.2
8.8
9.3
9.7
General agricultural programs
1.4
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.1
_
Forestry
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
State administration
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
Culture
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.1
Municipal services
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
Civilian police
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
Military personnel
7.8
7.6
7.9
8.2
8.4
8.6
8.8
9.2
9.6
9.8
Other branches
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.2
Gross national product
305.7
323.1
331.8
324.2
366.4
387.0
405.7
423.8
449.0
455.6
GNP in established prices
320.3
338.3
349.7
347.3
386.8
409.6
430.7
453.3
480.4
492.3
55
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Table A-I (continued)
USSR: GNP by Sector of Origin at 1982 Factor Cost
Billion 1982 rubles
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
Industry 138.0
144.2
150.6
160.6
171.7
181.4
187.4
193.0
197.2
200.7
Ferrous metals 9.8
10.3
10.6
11.1
11.4
12.0
12.4
12.5
12.8
12.7
Nonferrous metals 5.8
6.1
6.4
6.8
7.2
7.6
7.7
7.8
7.9
8.1
Fuel 12.9
13.5
14.2
14.9
15.7
16.6
17.3
18.0
18.6
19.0
Electric power 8.1
8.8
9.4
10.0
10.7
11.4
12.2
12.6
13.2
13.6
Machinery 44.3
46.0
48.3
53.7
59.1
62.5
65.3
67.4
69.0
71.6
Chemicals 8.5
9.0
9.5
10.4
11.5
12.6
13.2
13.8
14.2
14.0
Wood, pulp, and paper 11.1
11.4
11.6
11.9
121
? 12.6
12.5
12.6
12.5
12.0
Construction materials 9.1
9.7
10.1
10.7
11.2
11.8
12.0
12.2
12.5
12.3
Light industry 11.0
11.5
11.5
11.9
? 12.2
12.5
.12.9
13.2
13.6
13.8
Food industry 12.0
12.3
12.8
12.9
13.9
14.7
14.6
15.2
15.2
15.6
Other industry 5.5
5.7
6.0
6.4
6.8
7.2
7.4
7.7
7.8
8.0
Construction 42.0
44.5
46.6
48.3
49.8
51.6
52.0
52.2
52.5
51.5
Agriculture 139.5
136.3
124.2
147.7
142.1
124.4
138.7
142.0
147.0
134.8
Transportation S 35.9
38.5
40.5
43.5
46.5
49.3
51.6
52.3
54.7
56.3
Freight 25.3
27.1
28.3
30.6
32.6
34.3
35.7
37.1
38.9
39.7
Passenger 10.6
11.4
12.2
12.9
13.9
15.0
15.8
15.2
15.8
16.6
- Communications 3.1
3.3
3.5
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5.1
Trade 28.5
29.8
30.9
32.4
34.2
35.9
37.3
38.4
38.9
40.0
Services 93.3
96.7
100.0
103.1
106.5
109.8
112.2
114.8
118.0
121.3
Housing 27.1
27.8
28.5
29.2
29.9
30.6
31.3
32.0
32.6
33.3
Utilities 4.8
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.8
6.1
6.4
6.7
7.1
7.4
Repair and personal care 6.0
6.3
6.7
7.0
7.4
7.8
8.1
8.4
8.9
9.3
Recreation 5.2
5.3
5.5
5.5
5.8
6.0
5.8
5.9
6.0
6.2
Education 19.6
20.1
20.6
20.9
21.4
21.8
22.2
22.6
23.2
23.7
Health 10.8
11.2
11.5
11.7
12.0
12.2
12.5
12.6
12.8
13.1
Science 8.8
9.4
10.1
10.7
11.2
11.8
11.9
12.2
12.6
13.2
Credit and insurance 1.1
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.8
Government administration 10.0
10.4
10.8
11.1
11.6
12.0
12.3
12.7
13.0
13.3
General agricultural programs 1.1
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.8
Forestry 0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
State administration 3.9
4.0
4.1
4.3
4.4
4.6
4.7
4.8
4.9
5.0
Culture 1.2
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.8
Municipal services 0.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.1
Civilian police 2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.8
2.9
Military persOnnel 10.1
10.5
10.7
10.8
10.9
11.1
11.2
11.2
11.4
11.6
Other branches 1.3
1.3
1.3
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
Gross national product 491.6
505.1
508.3
551.7
567.2
569.1
596.4
610.2
626.2
623.0
GNP in established prices 528.9
545.8
553.4
595.1
616.2
625.7
652.5
669.2
685.9
686.7
56
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Table A-1 (continued)
USSR: GNP by Sector of Origin at 1982 Factor Cost
Billion 1982 rubles
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
Industry
204.1
206.7
209.3
214.5
220.5
225.1
231.0
238.3
Ferrous metals
12.6
12.6
12.5
12.9
13.0
13.1
13.6
13.8
Nonferrous metals
8.2
8.2
8.3
8.5
8.8
9.0
9.3
9.5
Fuel
19.4
19.6
20.0
20.2
20.3
20.3
21.0
21.4
Electric power
14.2
14.5
14.8
15.3
16.0
16.5
17.1
17.8
Machinery
72.6
72.9
74.0
75.2
77.8
80.1
82.5
85.5
Chemicals
14.6
15.2
15.5
16.4
17.0
17.7
18.5
19.0
Wood, pulp, and paper
12.3
12.4
12.5
12.9
13.3
13.5
14.2
14.8
Construction materials
12.3
12.7
12.5
13.0
13.2
13.5
? 14.0
143
Light industry ?
14.1
14.3
14.2
14.4 .
14.8
15.2
15.4
15.7.
Food industry
15.7
16.1
16.6
17.1
17.5
17.2
16.3
16.9
Other industry
8.1
8.2
8.3
8.5
8.8
8.9
9.2
9.5
Construction
51.4
51.5
50.6
52.2
53.1
54.3
56.4
57.8
Agriculture
125.5
122.5
133.4
141.3
138.4
133.1
146.8
140.9
Transportation
sas
61.0
61.6
63.3
64.1
65.5
67.5
68.2
Freight
41.4
42.9
43.2
44.5
44.9
45.7
47.0
47.3
Passenger
17.4
18.1
18.4
18.8
19.3
19.8
20.5
21.0
Communications
5.3
5.5
5.7
5.9
6.1
6.4
6.8
7.2
Trade
40.9
41.7
41.9
43.0
44.2
44.7
44.9
45.9
Services
124.9
127.9
130.1
133.0
136.2
139.4
142.5
147.0
Housing
33.9
34.7
35.7
36.7
37.6
38.5
39.6
40.7
Utilities
7.7
8.1
8.5
8.8
9.3
9.8
10.3
10.7
Repair and personal care
9.8
10.2
103
10.9
11.4
11.9
12.3
13.2
Regration-
6.4
6.5
6.6
6.6
6.7
6.8
6.8
6.8
Education
24.4
24.7
25.0
25.3
25.7
26.2
26.8
27.6
Health
13.1
13.3
13.6
13.8
14.0
14.3
14.5
14.9
Science
13.9
14.3
14.0
14.3
14.7
15.0
15.2
15.7
Credit and insurance
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
Government administration
13.8
14.2
14.4
14.5
14.8
14.9
15.1
15.4
General agricultural programs
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
Forestry
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
State administration
5.2
5.3
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.7
Culture
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.2
Municipal services
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
Civilian police
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.3
Military personnel
12.0
12.1
12.3
12.5
12.5
12.5
12.6
12.6
Other branches
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.9
Gross national product
624.7
630.6
646.7
667.3
676.9
682.9
710.3
719.9
GNP in established prices
691.0
698.8
713.7
734.2
745.7
751.9
776.5
789.2
57
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Table A-2
USSR: Average Annual Growth of GNP by Sector of Origin
Percent
1951-55
1956-60
1961-65
1966-70
1971-75
1976-80
1981-85 1986-87
Industry
9.7
7.5
6.5
6.0
5.6
2.4
2.0 2.9
Ferrous metals
11.3
7.7
7.4
5.3
4.0
1.0
0.8 2.4
Nonferrous metals
12.4
6.4
8.0
7.8
5.7
1.5
2.0 2.4
Fuel
9.8
8.9
6.7
5.3
5.2
3.1
0.9 2.7
Electric power
13.1
11.4
11.5
7.9
7.0
4.5
3.1 3.8
Machinery
8.7
6.1
7.1
6.2
7.2
3.0
2.0 3.3
Chemicals
11.0
10.4
11.7
8.3
8.3
3.0
3.8 3.7
Wood, pulp; and paper
7.3
5.6
2.5
2.8
2.5
-0.4
1.9 4.5
Construction materials
16.2
?15.2
5.6
6.1
5.3
0.9
1.8 3.7
Light industry
10.2
5.8
2.7
6.4
2.6
2.4
1.6 1.6
Food industry
9.8
8.4
. 7.0
5.9
4.1
1.4
1.8 -0.7
Other industry
9.7
7.5
6.5
6.0
5.6
2.4
2.0 2.9
Catiffieti
11.4
10.2
4.9
5.5
. 4.2
-0.1
1.1 3.1
Agriculture
2.2
3.9
2.8
3.4
-2.3
0.2
1.2 2.9
Transportation
12.7
11.9
10.0
7.1
6.5
3.6
2.2 2.1
Freight
13.1
12.7
9.9
6.2
6.3
3.8
2.0 1.7
Passenger
11.9
10.0
10.1
9.3
7.1
3.1
2.6 2.9
Communications
8.6
7.3
7.3
8.6
6.4
4.7
3.9 6.2
Trade
10.6
8.0
4.9
7.0
4.7
2.7
1.8 1.3
Services
2.6
3.7
4.6
4.1
3.3
2.6
2.2 2.7
Housing
2.7
4.8
3.9
3.0
2.5
2.1
2.6 2.8
Utilities
5.4
9.1
8.1
5.6
5.1
4.9
4.9 4.3
Repair and personal care
3.7
5.1
6.1
6.9
5.1
4.8
3.9 5.5
Recreation
14.5
7.3
4.5
2.9
3.1
1.2
1.2 0.2
Education
3.6
2.2
5.9
3.7
2.2
2.2
1.5 2.7
Health
5.0
4.4
3.8
3.6
2.6
1.4
1.7 2.2
Science
7.2
12.1
8.8
6.5
5.9
3.4
1.5 2.3
Credit and insurance
-0.1
-2.4
1.5
5.5
5.9
4.3
0.8 -0.3
Government administration
-3.4
-2.4
0.9
5.1
3.7
2.9
1.5 1.6
General agricultural programs
5.5
1.7
-8.3
4.8
4.8
5.5
3.4 -1.3
Forestry
-2.8
-4.0
1.3
1.7
0.9
-0.0
-0.2 -1.3
State administration
-6.0
-4.1
2.2
4.9
3.5
2.4
1.2 2.3
Culture
3.5
1.6
5.5
8.4
5.0
3.8
1.3 2.9
Municipal services
2.7
1.4
3.4
5.3
4.5
3.2
1.6 1.7
Civilian police
-6.0
-4.1
2.2
4.9
3.5
2.4
1.2 2.3
Military personnel
1.3
-4.6
2.0
3.3
1.8
1.6
0.9 0.2
Other branches
4.9
5.5
4.8
4.9
3.0
1.9
1.8 2.7
Gross national product
4.9
5.5
4.8
4.9
3.0
1.9
1.8 2.7
GNP in established prices
6.0
5.9
5.0
5.2
3.4
2.0
1.7 2.4
58
?
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Table A-3
USSR: Annual Growth of GNP by Sector of Origin
Percent
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
Industry
12.6
8.1
8.2
9.4
10.3
6.9
6.5
7.9
8.9
Ferrous metals
13.8
13.9
10.1
9.5
9.4
7.2
6.1
7.2
8.2
Nonferrous metals
13.0
12.4
11.2
9.4
16.3
5.9
5.7
5.9
6.3
Fuel
9.4
7.4
7.3
10.8
14.2
9.4
11.9
8.5
7.8
Electric power
13.8
14.4
12.8
11.8
12.7
12.7
9.5
12.3
12.4
Machinery
10.2
7.7
7.0
7.6
10.9
4.7
3.1
5.1
8.2
Chemicals
8.1
8.4
10.3
15.0
13.5
13.0
10.1
10.4
8.5
Wood, pulp, and paper
13.7
3.7
3.7
10.2
5:3
3.7
7.0
9.0
9.1
Construction materials
16.8
14.2
15.7
15.5
18.8
11.7
17.9
18.8
15.7
Light industry
18.5
6.4
9.0
10.8
6.9
3.9
4.5
7.4
7.4
Food industry
15.6
8.9
11.2
6.2
7.3
14.0
6.4
7.8
9.7
Other industry
12.6
8.1
8.2
9.4
10.3
6.9
6.5
7.9
8.9
Construction
14.3
9.7
9.9
10.6
12.4
8.2
11.0
12.9
12.2
Agriculture
-12.3
6.7
3.9
2.6
11.9
16.9
-3.5
8.8
1.1
Transportation
12.0
9.9
10.7
11.3
20.0
12.0
14.4
11.2
11.4
Freight
12.0
9.8
10.3
11.3
22.5
14.4
14.7
11.6
12.2
Passenger
11.9
10.1
11.7
11.4
14.3
5.9
13.6
10.3
9.3
Communications
10.3
9.4
6.6
8.8
7.8
8.3
7.7
5.9
6.7
Trade
9.9
10.2
11.6
11.3
9.8
8.7
8.2
9.6
6.8
Services
3.0
3.0
1.8
3.3
1.9
2.7
2.8
4.8
4.2
Housing
2.5
2.6
2.5
2.7
3.0
3.3
4.2
5.1
5.8
Utilities
4.1
4.1
5.4
6.7
6.8
7.0
8.7
10.8
9.8
Repair and personal care
3.2
3.7
4.2
3.7
3.9
0.6
1.8
6.6
12.2
Recreation
15.6
12.8
4.2
17.9
23.1
11.2
7.9
10.1
3.8
Education
3.4
3.3
2.5
4.6
4.1
1.4
1.9
2.5
2.2
Health
4.1
3.9
3.6
6.9
6.3
2.8
4.4
5.4
4.6
Science
9.4
7.9
4.6
5.5
8.5
12.4
10.2
13:0
10.6
Credit and insurance
-0.7
-0.7
0.2
0.2
0.2
-2.1
-4.2
-1.1
-2.7
Government administration
0.4
0.3
-2.6
-2.2
-12.2
-1.8
-4.4
0.7
-2.4
General agricultural programs
9.7
8.9
5.4
40.1
-26.0
4.3
-2.6
7.0
3.6
Forestry
1.7
1.7
-10.1
-3.5
-3.4
-2.2
-i 6
3.3
-6 7
State administration
-1.5
-1.5
-3.5
-10.7
-12.0
-3.8
-5.8
-0.7
-4.3
Culture
3.4
3.2
2.5
4.5
4.0
1.0
1.5
2.5
1.3
Municipal services
3.9
3.7
2.1
2.0
1.9,
2.6
.0.9
1.2
0.7
Civilian police
-1.5
-1.5
-3.5
-10.7
-12.0
-3.8
-5.8
-0.7
-4.3
Military personnel
24.8
7.4
-8.6
-6.7
-6.7
-2.0
-5.9
-8.4
-7.0
Other branches
0.6
6.5
4.4
4.9
8.5
9.6
2.1
7.6
4.9
Gross national product
0.6
6.5
4.4
4.9
8.5
9.6
2.1
7.6
4.9
GNP in established prices
3.4
6.8
5.3
5.9
8.8
9.4
3.2
7.8
5.7
59
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16 : CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
-4. -
Table A-3 (continued)
USSR: Annual Growth of GNP by Sector of Origin
Percent
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
Industry
7.4
7.2
7.5
5.0
6.6
6.4
5.3
7.6
6.0
5.3
Ferrous metals
10.0
9.0
8.2
6.3
7.0
6.8
6.4
6.0
4.9
3.4
Nonferrous metals
8.5
8.9
8.8
7.9
6.5
7.7
10.0
9.0
8.0
5.3
Fuel
7.1
5.7
6.8
8.5
6.4
6.0
6.7
6.1
4.2
4.7
Electric power
10.2
12.1
12.8
11.2
11.2
10.0
7.6
7.7
8.8
7.9
Machinery
9.5
9.8
10.8
3.2
6.8
5.1
4.1
8.9
7.3
6.8
Chemicals
10.2
9.0
10.4
11.0
13.8
14.4
9.0
8.7
7.1
6.0
Wood, pulp, and. paper
-0.3
0.1
1.3
5.0
4.5
2.0
0.2
5.1
2i
1.6
Construction materials
11.9
7.9
4.5
2.8
5.0
8.1
6.5
7.5
4.1
2.2
Light industry
5.7
3.0
3.1
1.7
3.7 ,
2.0
6.9
7.6
6.9
5.7.
Food industry
4.5
7.9
5.9
3.8
6.1
11.3
4.3
7.4
5.5
6.0
Other industry
7.4
7.2
7.5
5.0
6.6
6.4
5.3
7.6
6.0
5.3
Construction
6.9
4.9
4.3
3.9
5.1
6.1
3.7
7.3
4.8
3.6
Agriculture
-2.2
6.2
-4.3
-17.7
32.3
3.9
4.2
-0.7
6.7
-6.4
Transportation .
10.6
8.2
8.7
9.4
10.3
13.4
7.0
9.3
7.2
5.2
Freight
10.4
7.4
7.0
9.2
11.3
15.0
5.4
9.0
6.0
4.1
Passenger
11.1
10.5
13.2
10.0
7.7
9.4
11.2
10.2.
10.3
7.9
Communications
7.7
6.0
6.2
6.4
7.9
10.2
10.7
10.3
6.9
8.3
Trade
6.7
4.6
5.8
4.0
4.0
6.0
7.5
7.8
7.2
5.7
Services
4.1
3.9
5.1
4.0
5.3
4.9
4.3
4.3
4.6
3.9
Housing
5.7
4.9
4.3
3.8
3.4
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.1
2.9
Utilities
9.3
9.2
8.4
8.0
7.7
7.2
6.2
5.8
5.3
5.1
Repair and personal care
4.8
4.6
4.8
4.9
7.3
8.7
6.5
7.4
7.1
7.4
Recreation
3.6
7.0
3.0
-0.0
7.0
5.7
-0.1
7.2
5.2
0.8
Education
2.8
4.5
6.9
5.5
6.7
5.9
4.8
3.6
4.2
3.1
Health
4.7
4.0
3.8
2.9
4.0
4.4
3.8
2.8
4.6
3.9
Science
14.3
11.5
11.0
7.8
8.5
5.2
6.5
4.2
6.7
6.7
Credit and insurance
-1.9
-0.0
2.2
1.9
2.9
0.6
4.9
5.4
5.4
5.1
Government administration
-4.0
-6.9
1.9
0.4
4.1
5.3
5.4
6.9
5.6
4.9
General agricultural programs
-3.6
-37.4
-1.6
-1.4
3.7
2.9
5.9
9.4
7.5
1.5
Forestry - --
-1.9
0.7
2.9
2.3
1.8
-1.3
2.2
1.0
2.4
1.4
State administration
-5.9
-0.5
1.6
-0.8
4.0
7.0
5.9
6.6
4.9
5.4
Culture
1.7
3.2
6.4
5.4
6.8
5.6
4.8
10.0
10.1
8.8
Municipal services
1.8
1.1
3.3
3.9
5.1
3.7
4.8
7.7
4.9
4.9
Civilian police -
-5.9
-0.5
1.6
-0.8
4.0
7.0
5.9
6.6
4.9
5.4
Military personnel
0.5
-2.4
4.0
3.4
3.1
2.0
2.7
4.4
4.0
2.4
Other branches
3.2
5.7
2.7
-2.3
13.0
5.6
4.8
4.5
5.9
1.5
Gross national product
3.2
5.7
2.7
-2.3
13.0
5.6
4.8
4.5
5.9
1.5
GNP in established prices
3.8
5.6
3.4
-0.7
11.4
5.9
5.1
5.3
6.0
2.5
60
.
neclassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Table A-3 (continued)
USSR: Annual Growth of GNP by Sector of Origin Percent
Percent
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
Industry
5.7
4.5
4.4
6.7
6.9
5.7
3.3
3.0
2.2
1.8
Ferrous metals
5.7
4.4
3.5
4.2
3.3
4.7
3.2
0.8
2.6
-0.9
Nonferrous metals
6.9
5.9
5.0
6.1
6.0
5.3
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.8
Fuel
4.9
4.9
5.0
5.3
5.1
6.0
3.9
4.1
3.3
2.6
Electric power
7.6
8.1
7.1
6.8
6.7
6.6
6.9
3.6
4.7
2.9
Machinery
3.9
3.9
5.1
11.1
10.1
5.8
4.3
3.4
2.3
3.7
Chemicals
10.7
6.1
6.4
8.8
10.3
10.1
4.3
4.7
3.0
-1.0
Wood, pulp, and paper
4.9
2.5
1.8
2.7
1.6
3.8
-0.4
0.1
-0.8
-3.3
. Construction materials
10.5
6.3
.4.7
5.7
4.3
515
2.0
1.9
1.9
-1.1
. Light industry
4.9
4.4
0.8
2.9
2.4
2.5
3.9
2.3
2.5
1.5
Food industry
6.3
3.0
4.0
0.3
7.9
5.7
-0.7
4.2
-0.0
2.7
Other industry
5.7
4.5
4.4
6.7
6.9
5.7
3.3
3.0
2.2
1.8
Construction
8.0
6.0
4.7
3.8
3.1
3.5
0.8
0.4
0.6
-1.8
Agriculture
14.3
-2.3
-8.9
19.0
-3.8
-12.5
11.5
2.4
3.6
-8.3
Transportation
6.8
7.0
5.4
7.2
7.0
5.9
4.7
1.4
4.6
3.0
Freight
6.8
6.8
4.6
8.0
6.7
5.1
4.2
3.7
5.0
2.1
Passenger
7.1
7.5
7.2
5.4
7.8
7.8
5.7
.-3.7
3.7
5.1
Communications
7.1
6.7
6.7
6.2
6.1
6.2
5.2
4.5
4.3
4.8
Trade
6.9
4.8
3.6
4.9
5.4
4.9
3.9
3.0
1.3
2.7
Services
3.6
3.6
3.4
3.1
3.3
3.1
2.2
2.3
2.7
2.8
Housing
2.8
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.4
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.0
Utilities
5.5
5.0
4.2
4.8
5.6
5.8
5.7
4.7
4.7
5.1
Repair and personal care
6.1
4.9
5.3
5.4
5.1
4.9
4.6
3.9
5.4
4.9
Recreation
1.7
2.6
3.2
1.2
5.1
3.7
-3.4
1.2
2.1
2.4
Education
3.0
2.9
2.3
1.8
2.2
2.0
1.9
1.7
2.6
2.0
Health
3.0
3.4
2.7
2.2
2.5
1.9
1.9
1.3
1.0
2.6
Science
8.2
6.5
7.2
6.7
4.3
4.9
1.4
2.6
3.2
4.2
Credit and insurance
6.7
6.6
6.6
5.2
6.3
5.1
5.1
4.9
4.8
4.4
Government administration
2.5
4.1
3.8
3.1
4.1
3.4
3.0
2.7
2.9
2.4
General agricultural programs
-0.0
6.7
4.5
4.0
4.1
4.7
9.0
2.3
6.2
3.9
Forestry -
1.4
0.4
2.3
-0.5
1.4
0.7
-0.9
0.4
0.9
-0.2
State administration
1.9
3.3
3.6
3.2
4.2
3.3
2.1
2.2
2.1
2.4
Culture
8.3
6.9
4.2
4.7
5.4
4.0
3.8
5.6
3.7
1.9
Municipal services
3.9
5.9
4.9
3.7
4.2
3.7
2.3
3.6
3.8
3.0
Civilian police
1.9
3.3
3.6
3.2
4.2
3.3
2.1
2.2
2.1
2.4
Military personnel
2.7
3.5
1.9
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.1
0.1
1.3
2.3
Other branches
7.9
2.7
0.6
8.5
2.8
0.3
4.8
2.3
2.6
-0.5
Gross national product
7.9
2.7
0.6
8.5
2.8
0.3
4.8
2.3
2.6
-0.5
GNP in established prices
7.4
3.2
1.4
7.5
3.6
1.5
4.3
2.6
2.5
0.1
61
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Table A-3 (continued)
USSR: Annual Growth of GNP by Sector of Origin
Percent
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
Industry
1.7
1.3
1.3
2.4
2.8
2.1
2.7
3.1
Ferrous metals
-0.4
-0.3
-0.3
2.9
1.0
0.7
3.3
1.6
Nonferrous metals
1.3
0.3
0.8
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
1.9
Fuel
1.7
1.2
1.8
1.1
0.6
-0.0
3.5
1.9
Electric power
4.5
1.9
2.6
3.2
4.7
2.9
3.6
4.1
Machinery
1.4
0.4
1.5
1.6
3.6
3.0
2.9
3.7
Chemicals
4.2
3.9
2.0
5.8
3.2
4.1
4.8
2.6
Wood, pulp, and paper
2.2
1.1
0.6
3.0
. 2.8
2.1
4.6
4.5
Construction materials
0.1
2.5
-0.9
3.5
1.8
2.0
4.0
3.4
Light industry
2.1
1.8
-0.5
1.2
2.8
. 2.4
1.4
1.7
Food industry
0.7
2.6
2.9
3.4
2.1
-1.8
-4.9
3.6
Other industry
1.7
1.3
1.3
2.4
2.8
2.1
2.7
3.1
Construction
-0.2
0.3
-1.8
3.0
1.9
2.3
3.8
2.4
Agriculture
-6.9
-2.4
8.9
5.9
-2.1
-3.8
10.3
-4.0
Transportation
4.4
3.7
1.0
2.7
1.3
2.2
3.0
1.2
Freight
4.2
3.6
0.8
2.9
0.8
1.9
2.8
0.6
Passenger
4.9
3.8
1.7
2.2
2.5
2.8
3.3
2.5
ConmiliniEations
4.7
4.3
2.2
3.5
4.7
4.7
5.5
6.8
Trade
2.4
1.8
0.4
2.7
2.7
1.2
0.4
2.1
Services
3.0
2.4
1.7
2.2
2.4
2.4
2.2
3.2
Housing
1.9
2.3
2.8
2.8
2.5
2.4
2.7
2.9
Utilities
4.4
4.4
4.7
4.5
53
5.4
4.4
4.2
Repair and personal care
5.1
4.1
2.9
4.3
4.0
4.3
4.0
7.0
Recreation
4.1
1.9
0.8
0.2
0.9
2.3
-0.3
0.8
Education
2.9
1.3
1.4
1.0
1.5
2.1
2.3
3.0
Health
0.3
1.6
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.5
3.0
Science
5.6
3.1
-2.3
2.4
2.8
1.7
1.3
3.3
Credit and insurance
2.4
1.7
1.9
0.6
0.6
-0.7
-1.3
0.6
Government administration
3.5
2.4
1.6
1.1
1.5
0.9
1.5
1.7
General agricultural programs
6.0
4.6
4.3
2.0
3.0
3.3
-2.8
0.2
Forestry
-0.3
-0.0
-0.2
-0.2
O.
-0.2
-0.4
-2.2
State administration
3.2
2.2
1.1
1.2
1.4
0.2
2.6
? 2.0
Culture
4.1
3.1
1.9
-0.1
1.0
0.8
2.2
3.6
Municipal services
3.4
1.1
0.6
1.6
2.1
2.3
2.1
1.2
Civilian police
3.2
2.2
1.1
1.2
1.4
0.2
2.6
2.0
Military personnel ?
3.3
0.5
1.9
1.4
0.5
0.2
0.4
-0.0
Other branches
0.3
0.9
2.6
3.2
1.4
0.9
4.0
1.3
Gross national product
0.3
0.9
2.6
3.2
1.4
0.9
4.0
1.3
GNP in established prices
0.6
1.1
2.1
2.9
1.6
0.8
3.3
1.6
62
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Table A-4
USSR: Indexes of GNP by Sector of Origin
1982 g^ 100
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
Industry
15.7
17.7
19.1
20.7
22.6
25.0
26.7
28.4
30.7
33.4
Ferrous metals
17.1
19.4
22.1
24.3
26.6
29.1
31.2
33.1
35.5
38.4
Nonferrous metals
13.3
15.0
16.9
18.8
20.6
23.9
25.3
26.8
28.3
30.1
Fuel
14.8
16.2
17.4
18.6
20.6
23.5
25.8
28.8
31.3
33.7
Electric power
6.8
7.8
8.9
10.0
11.2
12.6
14.2
15.6
17.5
19.6
Machinery- ?
15.4
17.0
18.3
19.6
21.1
23.4
24.5
25.2
26.5
28.7
Chemicals
7.6
8.2
8.9
9.8
11.3
12.8 .
14.5
15.9
17.6
19.1
Wood, pulp, and paper?
36.6
41.7
43.2
44.8
49.4
52.0
53.9
57.7
62.9.
? 68.6
Construction materials
9.6
11.2
12.8
14.8
17.0
20.3
22.6
26.7
31.7
36.7
Light industry
23.0
27.2
28.9
31.5
34.9
37.3
38.8
40.5
43.5
46.8
Food industry
16.2
18.7
20.4
22.7
24.1
25.9
29.5
31.4
33.8
37.1
Other industry
15.7
17.7
19.1
20.7
22.6
25.0
26.7
28.4
30.7
33.4
Construction
18.0
20.5
22.5
24.8
27.4
30.8
33.3
37.0
41.7
46.8
Agriculture
56.9
49.8
53.2
55.3
56.7
63.4
74.2
71.5
77.8
78.7
Transportation
8.0
9.0
9.9
11.0
12.2
14.6
16.4
18.8
20.9
23.3
Freight
8.0
9.0
9.9
10.9
12.1
14.9
17.0
19.5
21.8
24.4
Passenger
8.1
9.0
10.0
11.1
12.4
14.2
15.0
17.0
18.8
20.5
Communications
11.8
13.0
14.3
15.2
16.6
17.9
19.4
20.8
22.1
23.6
Trade
15.7
17.3
19.0
21.2
23.6
25.9
28.2
30.5
33.4
35.7
Services
34.2
35.2
36.3
36.9
38.2
38.9
39.9
41.0
43.0
44.8
Housing
37.4
38.3
39.3
40.3
41.4
42.6
44.1
45.9
48.3
51.0
Utilities
14.4
15.0
15.6
16.5
17.6
18.8
20.1
21.8
24.2
26.5
Repair and personal care
20.0
20.6
21.4
22.2
23.1
24.0
24.1
24.5
26.2
29.3
Recreation
19.5
22.5
25.4
26.4
31.2
38.4
42.7
46.0
50.7
52.6
Education
36.9
38.1
39.3
40.3
42.2
43.9
44.5
45.4
46.5
47.5
Health
35.0
36.4
37.9
39.2
41.9
44.6
45.8
47.8
50.4
52.8
Science
12.1
13.2
14.3
14.9
15.7
17.1
19.2
21.2
23.9
26.4
Credit and insurance
47.3
47.0
46.7
46.8
46.9
47.0
46.0
44.0
43.6
42.4
Government administration
69.6
69.8
70.1
68.3
66.7
58.6
57.6
55.0
55.4
54.1
General agricultural programs
47.8
52.5
57.1
60.2
84.4
62.4
65.1
63.4
67.9
70.3
Forestry
117.1
119.2
121.2
108.9
105.1
101.5
99.3
93.7
90.6
84.5
State administration
85.6
84.3
83.0
80.1
71.5
62.9
60.5
57.0
56.6
54.1
Culture
24.6
25.4
26.2
26.9
28.1
29.2
29.5
30.0
30.7
31.1
Municipal services
36.0
37.4
38.8
39.6
40.4
41.1
42.2
42.6
43.1
43.4
Civilian police
85.6
84.3
83.0
80.1
71.5
62.9
60.5
57.0
56.6
54.1
Military personnel
75.5
94.2
101.2
92.5
86.2
80.4
78.9
74.2
68.0
63.2
Other branches
28.5
28.7
30.5
31.9
33.4
36.3
39.7
40.6
43.7
45.8
Gross national product
28.5
28.7
30.5
31.9
33.4
36.3
39.7
40.6
43.7
45.8
GNP in established prices
25.1.
25.9
27.7
29.2
30.9
33.6
36.8
37.9
40.9
43.2
63
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Tabl-e-A-4 (continued)
USSR: Indexes of GNP by Sector of Origin
1982 al 100
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
Industry
35.9
38.5
41.4
43.4
46.3
49.3
51.9
55.8
59.2
62.3
Ferrous metals
42.3
46.1
49.9
53.0
56.7
60.5
64.4
68.2
71.6
74.0
Nonferrous metals
32.7
35.6
38.7
41.8
44.5
47.9
52.7
57.4
62.0
65.3
Fuel
36.1
38.1
40.7
44.2
47.0
49.8
53.1
56.4
58.7
61.5
Electric power
21.6
24.3
27.4
30.5
33.9
37.3
40.1
43.2
47.0
50.7
Machinery
31.4
34.5
38.2
39.4
42.1
44.3
46.1
50.2
53.9
57.6
Chemicals
21.0
22.9
25.3
28.1
31.9
36.6
39.9
43.3
46.4
49.2
Wm:id, pulp. and Paper
68.4
68.5
69.3
72.8
76.0
77.6
77.7
81.7
83.5
84.8
Construction materials
41.0
44.3
46.3
47.5
49.9
54.0
57.4
61.8
64.3
65.7
Light industry ?
49.4
50.9
52.5
53.4
55.4
56.5
60.4
65.0
69.5
73.4
Food industry '
38.8
41.8
44.3
46.0
48.8
54.3
56.6
60.8
64.1
68.0
Other industry
35.9
38.5
41.4
43.4
46.3
49.3
51.9
55.8
59.2
62.3
Construction
50.1
52.5
54.8
56.9
59.8
63.5
65.9
70.7
74.1
76.8
Agriculture
77.0
81.7
78.2
64.4
85.2
88.5
92.3
91.6
97.7
91.5
Transportation
25.7
27.8
30.2
33.1
36.5
41.4
44.3
48.4
51.9
54.6
Freight
27.0
29.0
31.0
33.8
37.7
43.3
45.6
49.7
52.7
54.9
Passenger
22.8
25.2
28.5
31.4
33.8
36.9
41.1
45.3
49.9
53.9
Communications
25.4
26.9
28.6
30.4
32.8
36.1
40.0
44.1
47.2
51.1
Trade
38.1
39.9
42.2
43.9
45.7
484
52.1
56.1
60.1
63.6
Services
46.7
48.5
51.0
53.0
55.8
58.5
61.0
63.6
66.6
69.2
Housing
53.9
56.6
59.0
61.3
63.3
65.3
67.4
69.5
71.7
73.8
Utilities
29.0
31.7
34.3
37.0
39.9
42.8
45.4
48.0
50.6
53.2
Repair and personal care
30.8
32.2
33.7
35.4
37.9
41.3
43.9
47.2
50.5
54.3
Recreation
54.5
58.3
60.1
60.1
64.3
67.9
67.8
72.7
76.5
77.2
Education
48.8
51.0
54.6
57.6
61.4
65.0
68.2
70.6
73.5
75.8
Health
55.2
57.4
59.6
61.3
63.8
66.6
69.1
71.1
74.3
77.2
Science
30.2
33.7
37.4
40.3
43.7
46.0
49.0
51.1
54.5
58.2.
Credit and insurance
41.6
41.6
42.5
43.3
44.5
44.8
47.0
49.5
52.2
54.9
Government administration
51.9
48.3
49.3
49.4
51.5
54.2
57.2
61.1
64.5
67.7
General agricultural programs
67.8
42.5
41.8
41.2
42.7
44.0
46.6
50.9
54.7
55.6
Forestry
82.9
83.5
86.0
88.0
89.5
88.4
90.4
91.3
93.5
94.8
State administration
51.0
50.7
51.5
51.1
53.2
56.9
60.3
64.2
67.4
71.0
Culture
31.6
32.6
34.7
36.6
39.1
41.3
43.3
47.6
52.4
57.0
Municipal services
44.1
44.6
46.1
47.9
50.3
52.2
54.7
59.0
61.9
64.9
Civilian police
51.0
50.7
51.5
51.1
53.2
56.9
60.3
64.2
67.4
71.0
Military personnel '
63.6
62.0
64.5
66.7
68.7
70.1
72.0
75.2
78.2
80.1
Other branches
47.3
50.0
51.3
50.1
56.7
59.8
62.7
65.5
69.4
70.5
Gross national product
47.3
50.0
51.3
50.1
56.7
59.8
62.7
65.5
69.4
70.5
GNP in established prices
44.9
47.4
49.0
48.7
54.2
57.4
60.3
63.5
67.3
69.0
64
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Table A-4 (continued)
USSR: Indexes of GNP by Sector of Origin
1982-100
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978 1979
Industry
65.9
68.9
71.9
76.7
82.0
86.7
89.5
92.2
94.2 95.9
Ferrous metals
78.3
81.7
84.6
88.2
91.1
95.4
98.5
99.3
101.8 100.9
Nonferrous metals
69.8
73.9
77.7
82.4
87.3
91.9
93.3
94.6
95.9 97.6
Fuel
64.5
67.6
71.0
74.7
78.5
83.2
86.5
90.0
93.0 95.4
Electric power
54.6
59.0
63.2
67.5
72.0
76.8
82.1
85.0
88.9 91.6
Machinery
59.8
62.2
65.3
72.5
79.9
84.5
88.2
91.1
93.3 96.7
Chemicals
54.5
57.8
61.5
66.9
73.8
81.3
84.8
88.7
91.4 90.5
Wood, pulp, and paper
88.9
91.2
92.8
95.3
96.9
100.5
100.2
100.3
99.5 96.2
Construction materials
72.6
77.2
80.8
85.4
89.1
94.0
95.8
97.6
99.5 98.4
Light industry
77.0
80.4
81.0
83.4
85.4
87.5
90.9
92.9
95.2 96.7
Food industry
72.2
74.4
77.3
77.6
83.7
88.5
87.9
91.6
91.6 94.0
Other industry
65.9
68.9
71.9
76.7
82.0
86.7
89.5
92.2
94.2 95.9
Construction
82.9
87.9
92.0
95.4
98.4
101.8
102.7
103.1
103.6 101.7
Agriculture
104.6
102.2
93.1
110.7
106.5
93.2
103.9
106.4
110.2 101.1
Transportation
58.3
62.4
65.8
70.5
75.5
79.9
'83.7
84.9
88.8 91.4
Freight
58.6
62.6
65.5
70.7
75.5
79.3
82.7
85.7
90.0 91.9
Passenger
57.7
62.0
66.5
70.0
75.5
81.4
86.0
82.9
86.0 90.3
Communications
54.7
58.4
62.3
66.2
70.3
74.6
78.5
82.0
85.5 89.6
Trade
68.0
71.2
73.8
77.5
81.6
85.7
89.0
91.7
92.9 95.4
Services
71.7
74.3
76.8
79.2
81.8
84.4
86.2
88.3
90.7 93.2
Housing
75.8
77.8
79.8
81.8
83.8
85.8
87.7
89.6
91.5 93.3
Utilities
56.1
58.9
61.4
64.3
68.0
71.9
75.9
79.5
83.3 87.6
Repair and personal care
57.6
60.4
63.6
67.0
70.5
73.9
77.3
80.4
84.7 88.8
Recreation
78.5
80.5
83.1
84.1
88.4
91.7
88.5
89.6
91.4 934
Education
78.1
80.3
82.2
83.6
85.5
87.2
88.8
90.4
92.7 94.6
Health
79.5
82.2
84.5
86.3
88.5
90.2
91.9
93.1
94.0 96.4
Science
63.0
67.1
71.9
76.7
80.0
83.9
85.1
87.4
90.1 93.9
Credit and insurance
58.5
62.3
66.5
69.9
74.3
78.1
82.1
86.1
902 94.2
Government administration
69.4
72.2
74.9
77.4
80.6
83.3
85.8
88.1
90.6 92.9
General agricultural programs
55.6
59.3
62.0
64.4
67.1
70.2
76.6
78.3
83.2 86.4
Forestry
96.2
96.5
98.8
98.3
99.7
100.4
99.4
99.9
100.8 100.5
State administration
72.3
74.7
77.3
79.8
83.1
85.9
87.7
89.6
91.5 93.7
Culture
61.7
66.0
68.8
72.0
75.9
78.9
81.9
86.5
89.7 91.4
Municipal services
67.5
71.4
74.9
77.7
81.0
83.9
85.9
89.0
92.4 95.1
Civilian police
72.3
74.7
77.3
79.8
83.1
85.9
87.7
89.6
91.5 93.7
Military personnel
82.3
85.2
86.8
87.9
89.0
90.2
91.2
91.3
92.5 94.6
Other branches
76.0
78.1
78.6
85.3
87.7
88.0
92.2
94.4
96.8 96.3
Gross national product
76.0
78.1
78.6
85.3
87.7
88.0
92.2
94.4
96.8 96.3
GNP in established prices
74.1
76.5
77.5
83.4
86.3
87.7
91.4
93.8
96.1 96.2
65
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Table A-4 (Continued)
USSR: Indexes of GNP by Sector of Origin
1982=100
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
Industry
97.5
98.7
100.0
102.4
105.3
107.5
110.4
113.8
Ferrous metals
100.5
100.3
100.0
102.9
103.9
104.6
108.0
109.7
Nonferrous metals
98.9
99.2
100.0
103.0
106.1
109.3
112.6
114.7
Fuel
97.0
98.2
100.0
101.1
101.7
101.7
105.2
107.2
Electric NA., cr
95.7
97.5
100.0
103.2
108.0
111.2
115.1
119.9
Machinery
98.1
98.5
100.0
101.6
105.2
108.3
111.5
115.6
Chemicals
94.3
98.0
100.0
105.8
109.3
113.7
119.2
122.3
Wood, pulp, and paper ,-
98.3
99.4
100.0
103.0
105.9
108.2
113.2
118.2
Construction materials ?
98.5
100.9
100.0
103.5
105.3
107.5
111.7
115.5
Light industry
98.7
100.5
100.0
101.2
104.1
106.6
108.1
110.0
Food industry
94.7
97.2
100.0
103.4
105.7
103.7
98.6
102.2
Other industry
97.5
98.7
100.0
102.4
105.3
107.5
110.4
113.8
Construction
101.5
101.8
100.0
103.0
105.0
107.3
111.4
114.1
Agriculture
94.1
91.8
100.0
105.9
103.7
99.7
110.0
105.6
Transportation
95.4
99.0
100.0
102.7
104.0
106.3
109.5
110.7
Freight
95.8
99.3
100.0
102.9
103.7
105.7
108.7
109.3
Passenger
94.7
98.3
100.0
102.2
104.8
107.7
111.3
114.1
Communications
93.8
97.9
100.0
103.5
108.3
113.4
119.6
127.8
Trade
97.8
99.6
100.0
102.7
105.6
106.8
107.3
109.6
Services
96.0
98.3
100.0
102.2
104.6
107.1
109.5
113.0
Housing
95.1
97.3
100.0
102.8
105.4
108.0
110.9
114.1
Utilities
91.5
95.5
100.0
104.5
110.3
116.3
121.4
126.6
Repair and personal care
93.4
97.2
100.0
104.3
108.4
113.1
117.5
125.8
Recreation
97.4
99.2
100.0
100.2
101.2
103.5
103.1
104.0
Education
97.3
98.6
100.0
101.0
102.5
104.7
107.1
110.4
Health
96.7
98.3
100.0
101.8
103.5
105.2
106.8
110.0
Science
99.2
102.3
100.0
102.4
105.3
107.1
108.5
112.0
Credit and insurance
96.5
98.1
100.0
100.6
101.2
100.5
99.2
99.8
Government administration
96.1
98.5
100.0
101.1
102.6
103.6
105.2
106.9
General agricultural programs
91.6
95.9
100.0
102.0
105.0
108.5
105.5
105.8
Forestry
100.3
100.2
100.0
99.8
99.6
99.4
99.0
96.8
State administration
96.8
98.9
100.0
101.2
102.6
102.8
105.5
107.6
Culture
95.2
98.2
100.0
99.9
100.9
101.8
104.0
107.7
Municipal services
98.3
99.4
100.0
101.6
103.8
106.2
108.4
109.8
--airdian police
96.8
98.9
100.0
101.2
102.6
102.8
105.5
107.6
Military personnel
97.7
98.2
100.0
101.4
102.0
102.2
102.6
102.6
Other branches
96.6
97.5
100.0
103.2
104.7
105.6
109.8
111.3
Gross national product
96.6
97.5
100.0
103.2
104.7
105.6
109.8
111.3
GNP in established prices
96.8
97.9
100.0
102.9
104.5
105.3
108.8
110.6
66
.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Table A-5
USSR: Shares of GNP by Sector of Origin
Percent
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
Industry
17.8
22.3
24.6
26.6
28.1
31.9
31.4
31.6
31.5
32.2
Ferrous metals
1.2
1.6
1.7
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.0
Nonferrous metals
0.6
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
Fuel
1.6
2.0
2.4
2.6
2.6
2.9
2.9
2.9
3.0
3.1
Electric r.--T-
0 4
1..1 ?
1.1
1.4
1.6
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.2
Machinery
6.2
7.4
7.6
8.5
9.0
11.0
10.9
11.1
11.0
11.5
Chemicals
0.6
0.8
1.1
1.5
1.7
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.3
Wood, pulp, and paper
2.5
2.8
2.8 .
' 2.5
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.0
1.9
Construction materials
0.7
1.1
1.7
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
Light industry
1.8
2.3
2.3
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
Food industry
1.5
1.8
2.1
2.3
2.4
2.6
2.4
2.5
2.4
2.5
Other industry
0.7
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.3
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.3
Construction
4.9
6.6
8.3
8.3
8.5
9.1
8.7
8.5
8.4
8.3
Agriculture
41.2
36.1
33.6
30.5
28.4
21.9
23.3
23.3
23.5
21.6
Transportation
2.7
3.9
5.2
6.6
7.3
8.7
8.6
8.6
8.7
9.0
Freight
1.9
2.7
3.8
4.8
5.2
6.0
6.0
6.1
6.2
6.4
Passenger
0.8
1.1
1.4
1.8
2.2
2.6
2.7
2.5
2.5
2.7
Communications
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
Trade
3.6
4.6
5.2
5.2
5.8
6.3
6.3
6.3
6.2
6.4
Services
24.1
21.6
19.9
19.7
19.0
19.3
18.8
18.8
18.8
19.5
Housing
7.2
6.5
6.3
6.0
5.5
5.4
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.3
Utilities
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.2
Repair and personal care
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.5
Recreation
0.7
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
Education
5.0
4.7
4.0
4.2
4.0
3.8
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.8
Health
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.0
2.1
Science
0.9
1.0
1.4
1.7
IS
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.1
Credit and insurance
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Government administration
5.4
3.6
2.4
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
General agricu/tural programs
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Forestry
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
State administration
2.5
1.4
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
Culture
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Municipal services
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
Civilian police
1.4
0.8
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
Military personnel
5.0
4.2
2.6
2-2
2.1
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.9
Other branches
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Gross national product
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
103.0
100.0
67
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Table A-5 (continued)
USSR: Shares of GNP by Sector of Origin
Percent
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
Industry
32.7
32.8
32.4
32.1
32.6
33.0
32.5
33.1
Ferrous metals
2.0
2.0
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
Nonferrous metals
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
Fuel
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
Electric power
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.5
Machinery
11.6
11.6
11.4
11.3
11.5
11.7
11.6
11.9
Chemicals
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.6
Wood, pulp, and paper
2.0
2.0
1.9
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.1
Construction materials
2.0
2.0'
1.9
1.9
2.0
2.0'
2.0
2.0
Light industry
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
.Food industry
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.3
2.4
,Other industry
1.3
1.3.
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
Construction
8.2
8.2
7.8
7.8
7.8
8.0
7.9
8.0
Agriculture
20.1
19.4
20.6
21.2
20.4
19.5
20.7
19.6
Transportation
9.4
9.7
9.5
9.5
9.5
9.6
9.5
9.5
Freight
6.6
6.8
6.7
6.7
6.6
6.7
6.6
6.6
Passenger
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.9
Communications
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
Trade
6.6
6.6
6.5
6.4
6.5
6.6
6.3
6.4
Services
20.0
20.3
20.1
19.9
20.1
20.4
20.1
20.4
Housing
5.4
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.7
Utilities
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.5
Repair and personal care
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.8
Recreation
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
Education
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
Health
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.0
2.1
Science
2.2
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.2
Credit and insurance
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Government administration
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.1
General agricultural programs
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Forestry
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
State administration
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
Culture
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Municipal services
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
Civilian police
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
Military personnel
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.7
Other branches
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Gross national product
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
68
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
?
Table A-6
USSR: GNP by F.od Use at 1982 Factor Cost
Billion 1982 rubles
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
Consumption
102.2
101.6
108.0
115.0
121.7
128.3
134.2
143.8
154.1
160.5
Consumer goods
66.9
65.1
70.0
75.6
80.0
84.3
88.4
96.0
103.8
107.3
Food
58.9
56.0
60.3
64.5
67.1
70.5
73.5
79.6
86.0
88.1
Animal products
28.4
28.7
29.3
30.7
32.2
33.1
35.8
39.5
45.0
46.8
Proces?cti. fnorls
2.5
3.3
3.7
4.4
3.6
4.4
4.8
5.0
5.2
5.5
Basic foods
24.3
19.8
22.7
24.1
25.4
26.3
25.9
27.4
27.7
27.9
Beverages
3.7
4.1
4.6
5.4
5.9
6.6
6.9
7.7
8.1
8.0
Soft goods
6.9
7.8
8.2
9.1
10.5
11.1
12.0
12.8
13.9
14.9.
Durables "
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.9
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.6
3.9
4.3..
Consumer services
35.3
36.5
38.0
39.5
41.6
44.1
45.7
47.8
50.4
53.2
Household services
19.8
20.6
21.5
22.3
23.3
24.7
25.7
27.0
28.8
30.7
Housing
13.5
13.8
14.2
14.6
15.0
15.4
15.9
16.6
17.5
18.5
Utilities
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.4
2.5
Transportation
0.8
0.9
0.9
1.1
1.2
1.4
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
Communications
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
Repair and personal care
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
2.9
? 3.0
3.2
3.6
Recreation
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.7
2.1
2.5
2.8
3.0
3.3
3.4
Communal services
15.5
15.9
16.5
17.2
18.3
19.4
20.0
20.7
21.6
22.5
Education
10.0
10.3
10.6
10.9
11.4
11.9
12.2
12.5
12.9
13.3
Health
5.5
5.6
5.9
6.3
6.9
7.5
7.8
8.2
8.7
9.2
Investment
26.8
32.3
32.0
36.9
39.9
47.6
52.9
58.9
64.4
71.6
New fixed investment
21.7
26.7
26.1
30.2
32.6
38.8
43.0
48.1
52.8
58.0
Machinery and equipment
3.5
3.5
3.8
3.9
4.8
5.8
7.3
8.1
9.1
9.8
Construction and other
18.1
20.8
23.2
25.4
28.0
30.6
32.1
35.0
39.4
44.4
Net additions to livestock
0.2
2.4
-0.9
0.9
-0.1
2.4
3.6
5.1
4.4
3.8
Capital repair
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.7
7.3
8.8
9.9
10.8
11.5
13.6
Other government expenditures
55.3
51.5
57.4
54.1
54.4
58.4
69.9
59.6
63.8
64.0
Government administration
12.9
12.9
13.0
12.6
12.4
10.9
10.7
10.2
10.3
10.0
General agricultural programs
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
2.2
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.9
Forestry
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.9
State administration
5.9
5.8
5.7
5.5
4.9
4.3
4.2
3.9
3.9
3.7
Culture
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
Municipal services
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
Civilian police
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.2
2.8
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.1
Research and development
2.6
2.9
3.1
3.2
3.4
3.7
4.2
4.6
5.2
5.7
Outlays not elsewhere classified
39.8
35.7
41.3
38.2
38.6
43.9
55.1
44.8
48.3
48.3
Gross national product
184.3
185.3
197.4
206.0
216.0
234.4
257.0
262.4
282.3
296.1
69
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Table A-6 (continued)
USSR: GNP by End Use at 1982 Factor Cost
Billion 1982 rubles
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
Consumption
168.1
174.0
181.2
190.0
191.5
201.1
211.9
224.1
237.3
249.0
Consumer goods
111.9
114.6
118.4
123.9
121.9
127.8
135.1
143.9
153.2
161,4
Food
91.1
93.1
96.1
101.5
98.4
102.4
107.3
113.4
119.8
125.5
Animal products
48.9
49.8
50.9
56.2
50.8
53.0
57.3
61.1
65.4
69.5
Processed foods
5.9
6.2
6.6
6.8
7.5
7.8
7.9
8.4
8.7
9.2
Basic foods
27.9
28.1
28.8
28.1
29.4
30.2
30.1
31.0
32.0
31.6
Beverages
8.3
9.0
9.9
10.4
10.8
11.4
12.0
12.9
13.7
15.2
Soft goods
16.0
16.6
17.2
17.3
17.9
19.1
20.8
22.7
24.7
26.5
Durables
4.8
4.9
5.2
5.2
5.6
6.3
7.1
7.8
8.7.
9.3
Consumer services
56.3
59.5
62.8
66.0
69.6
73.4
76.7
80.2
84.1
87.6
Household services
32.6
34.5
36.4
38.2
40.2
42.4
44.3
46.7
49.0
51.2
Housing
19.5
20.5
21.3
22.2
2/9
23.6
24.4
25.2
259
26.7
Utilities
2.7
3.0
3.3
3.6
3.9
4.3
4.5
4.8
5.1
5.5
Transportation
2.4
2.6
3.0
3.3
3.5
3.9
4.3
4.8
5.2
5.6
Communications ?
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
Repair and personal care
3.8
3.9
4.1
4.3
4.7
5.1
5.5
5.9
6.3
6.8
Recreation
3.6
3.8
3.9
3.9
4.2
4.5
4.5
4.8
5.1
5.2
Communal services
23.7
24.9
26.3
27.9
29.4
31.0
32.4
33.6
35.1
36.4
Education
14.0
14.8
16.0
17.2
18.3
19.4
20.3
21.1
22.1
22.9
Health
9.7
10.1
10.3
10.7
11.1
11.6
12.1
12.5
13.0
13.5
Investment
75.0
83.7
86.5
79.7
96.9
106.4
106.3
109.9
116.2
123.2
New fixed investment
60.6
67.9
69.4
60.3
76.1
84.6
84.0
87.2
92.4
98.7
Machinery and equipment
10.8
11.8
13.3
14.7
16.7
17.8
18.8
20.3
21.9
22.9
Construction and other
47.7
49.7
51.9
53.8
56.1
60.6
62.5
68.2
71.7
75.0
Net additions to livestock
2.0
6.5
4.3
-8.1
3.4
6.2
2.7
-1.3
-1.2
0.8
Capital repair
14.4
15.7
17.1
19.3
20.9
21.8
22.3
22.7
23.8
24.5
Other government expenditures
62.6
65.4
64.1
54.5
77.9
79.5
87.5
89.8
95.6
83.4
Government administration
9.6
9.0
9.1
9.2
9.5
10.0
10.6
11.3
11.9
12.5
General agricultural programs
1.8
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.4
1.5
1.5
Forestry
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
State administration
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.7
3.9
4.1
4.4
4.6
4.9
Culture
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.4
1.5
? Municipal services
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
Civilian police
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.7
2.8
Research and development
6.6
7.3
8.1
8.8
9.5
10.0
10.6
11.1
11.8
12.6
Outlays not elsewhere. classified
46.4
49.2
46.8
36.6
58.8
59.4
66.3
67.3
71.8
58.2
Gross national product
305.7
323.1
331.8
324.2
366.4
387.0
405.7
423.8
449.0
455.6
70
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Table A-6 (continued)
USSR: GNP by End Use at 1982 Factor Cost
Billion 1982 rubles
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
Consumption
260.1
269.7
275.7
285.3
296.3
308.3
314.4
321.6
329.1
338.3
Consumer goods
168.8
175.1
178.0
184.7
191.8
199.9
203.0
208.1
212.2
218.1
Food
130.0
133.7
134.1
138.8
143.6
148.6
149.1
151.4
153.6
157.2
Animal products
71.1
72.5
73.4
76.5
79.7
83.1
83.0
83.4
85.0
87.4
Processed foods
9.6
9.8
9.9
10.6
10.9
10.9
11.4
11.8
12.2
12.4
Basic foods
33.2
34.4
33.0
34.3
34.1
34.2
33.6
34.7
35.4
35.3
Beverages
16.2
17.0
17.8
17.4
18.9
20.4
21.1
21.5
21.0
22.1
Soft goods
28.4
29.7
.30.4
31.4
32.5
34.0
35.5
36.7
37.7
39.2
Durables
10.4
11.7
13.5
14.5
15.7
17.3
18.4
20.0
20.8
21.8
Consumer services
? 91.3
94.6
97.7
100.7
104.6
108.3
111.4
113.5
116.9
120.1
Household services
53.4
55.5
57.9
60.1
62.8
65.4
67.5
68.8
71.0
73.3
Housing
27.4
28.2
28.9
29.6
30.3
31.1
31.7
32.4
33.1
33.8
Utilities
5.8
6.2
6.6
7.1
7.5
7.9
8.4
8.7
9.1
9.5
Transportation
6.1
6.5
7.0
7.4
8.0
8.6
9.2
8.9
9.2
9.6
Communications
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
Repair and personal care
7.3
7.6
8.1
8.5
9.0
9.4
9.9
10.3
10.8
11.4
Recreation
5.3
5.4
5.7
5.7
6.1
6.4
6.2
6.3
6.5
6.6
Communal services
37.9
39.0
39.7
40.6
41.8
42.9
43.9
44.7
45.8
46.8
Education
23.6
24.3
24.7
25.2
25.9
26.7
27.4
27.9
28.6
29.2
Health
14.3
14.7
15.1
15.4
15.8
16.2
16.6
16.8
17.3
17.6
Investment
138.9
144.1
149.1
160.5
168.7
169.5
178.0
184.2
187.3
186.9
New fixed investment
113.6
116.9
119.7
127.3
132.7
134.8
141.1
145.5
147.5
145.8
Machinery and equipment
25.8
27.1
29.4
31.6
34.7
39.2
43.0
45.4
49.2
51.0
Construction and other
81.8
86.4
90.3
93.0
95.1
97.8
97.3
96.4
96.3
93.7
Net additions to livestock
6.0
3.4
0.1
2.7
2.8
-2.2
0.8
3.7
2.0
1.0
Capital repair
25.3
27.1
29.4
33.2
36.0
34.8
36.9
38.8
39.8
41.2
Other government expenditures
92.6
91.4
83.5
105.8
102.2
91.4
103.9
104.3
109.8
97.7
Government administration
12.9
13.4
13.9
14.3
14.9
15.4
15.9
16.3
16.8
17.2
General agricultural programs
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
Forestry
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
State administration
5.0
5.1
5.3
5.5
5.7
5.9
6.0
6.2
6.3
6.4
Culture
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
Municipal services
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.4
Civilian police
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.7
Research and development
13.7
14.6
15.6
16.7
17.4
18.2
18.5
19.0
19.6
20.4
Outlays not elsewhere classified
66.1
63.4
54.0
74.8
69.9
57.7
69.6
69.0
73.4
60.1
Gross national product
491.6
505.1
508.3
551.7
567.2
569.1
.596.4
610.2
626.2
623.0
71
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Table A-6 (continued)
USSR: GNP by End Use at 1982 Factor Cost
Billion 1982 rubles
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
Consumption
348.2
354.8
357.5
365.7
376.9
385.1
391.6
402.2
Consumer goods
224.7
228.6
227.8
233.0
240.6
245.2
248.3
253.9
Food
160.5
161.5
161.5
165.4
170.2
171.3
169.7
172.6
Animal products
88.8
88.8
87.7
90.3
93.7
97.2
99.3
103.0
Proce!st.1 f...,?,yIF,
13.0
13.3
13.5
13.7
13.8
13.8
14.3
15.2
Basic foods
35.6
36.2
37.6
38.3
39.0
39.4
41.5
41.3
Beverages
23.1
23.3
22.6
23.2
23.7
21.0
14.6
13.1
Soft goods
40.8
42.0
41.7
42.3
43.7
45.5
47.0
47.6
Durables
23.4
25.1
24.7
25.3
26.7
28.3
31.6
33.7
Consumer services
123.5
126.2
129.6
132.7
136.3
139.9
143.3
148.3
Household services
75.9
78.1
80.2
82.7
85.2
87.8
90.5
93.9
Housing
34.4
35.2
36.2
37.2
38.1
39.1
40.1
41.3
Utilities
9.9
10.3
10.7
11.1
11.7
12.2
12.7
13.2
? Transportation
10.1
10.5
10.7
10.9
11.2
11.5
11.9
12.1
Communications
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.1
3.2
3.5
Repair and personal care
12.0
12.5
12.8
13.4
13.9
14.5
15.1
16.2
? Recreation
6.9
7.1
7.1
7.2
7.3
7.5
7.5
7.6
Communal services
47.6
48.0
49.4
50.0
51.1
52.1
52.8
54.4
Education
29.9
30.2
31.1
31.4
32.0
32.7
33.4
34.1
Health
17.7
17.9
18.3
18.6
19.0
19.4
19.4
20.2
Investment
188.4
193.8
196.7
205.8
208.0
214.6
226.1
228.9
New fixed investment
146.3
150.8
153.7
161.2
163.1
167.9
178.9
180.0
Machinery and equipment
53.6
56.4
59.0
63.0
63.9
67.3
71.9
72.9
Construction and other
92.6
93.6
92.9
95.8
98.5
100.7
105.7
108.7
Net additions to livestock
0.0
0.8
1.8
2.4
0.8
-0.1
1.3
-1.6
Capital repair
42.1
43.1
43.0
44.6
44.9
46.7
47.2
48.9
Other government expenditures
88.1
82.0
92.6
95.8
92.0
83.2
92.6
88.8
Government administration
17.8
18.2
18.5
18.7
19.0
19.2
19.5
19.8
General agricultural programs
2.4
2.5
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.8
Forestry
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
State administration
6.6
6.8
6.9
6.9
7.0
7.1
7.2
7.4
Culture
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.8
Municipal services
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.6
Civilian police
3.8
3.9
4.0
4.0
4.1
4.1
4.2
4.3
Research and development
21.6
22.2
21.7
22.3
22.9
23.3
23.6
24.3
Outlays not elsewhere classified
48.8
41.5
52.3
54.8
50.1
40.8
49.5
44.7
Gross national product
624.7
630.6
646.7
667.3
676.9
682.9
710.3
719.9
72
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Table-A-7
USSR: Average Annual Growth of GNP by End Use
Percent
1951-55
1956-60
1961-65
1966-70
1971-75
1976-80
1981-85
1986-87
Consumption
4.7
5.5
3.7
5.3
3.5
2.5
2.0
2.2
Consumer goods
4.7
5.8
2.7
5.7
3.4
2.4
1.8
1.8
Food
3.6
5.3
2.4
4.9
2.7
1.5
1.3
0.4
Animal products
3.1
8.2
1.6
6.0
3.2
1.3
1.8
2.9
Processed loods
12.1
5.8
5.8
4.2
2.7
3.5
1.2
5.0
Basic foods
1.6
1.2
1.6
1.9
0.6
0.8
2.0
2.5
Beverages
12.5
4.6
6.4
7.3
4.7
2.6
-1.9
-21.1
Soft goods
10.1
7.5
3.7
8.3
3.7
3.7
2.2
2.3
Durables
19.6
123
5.5
10.6
10.7
6.3
3.9
9.0
Consumer services ,
4.5
5.0
5.5
? . 4.5
3.5
2.7
2.5
3.0
Household services
4.5
5.7
5.4
4.7
4.2
3.0
3.0
3.4
Housing
2.7
4.8
3.9
3.0
2.5
2.1
2.6
2.8
Utilities
5.9
6.6
9.4
6.5
6.3
4.7
4.2
4.1
Transportation
12.3
11.2
10.6
9.3
7.3
3.2
2.6
2.7
Communications
8.6
7.3
7.3
8.6
6.4
4.7
3.9
6.2
Repair and personal care
3.9
5.3
6.4
7.3
5.3
4.9
4.0
5.6
Recreation
14.1
7.2
4.8
3.2
3.9
1.6
1.5
0.8
Communal services
4.6
4.1
5.5
4.1
2.5
2.1
1.8
2.2
Education
3.5
3.3
6.8
4.0
2.5
2.3
1.8
2.2
Health
6.3
5.3
3.7
4.3
2.5
1.8
1.8
2.2
Investment
12.2
9.5
7.2
5.5
4.1
2.1
2.6
3.3
New fixed investment
12.3
9.3
6.9
6.1
3.5
1.7
2.8
3.5
Machinery and equipment
10.7
13.3
10.5
7.6
8.7
6.5
4.6
4.1
Construction and other
11.1
9.3
4.9
6.2
3.6
-1.1
1.7
3.9
Capital repair
11.9
10.4
8.6
3.1
6.5
3.9
2.1
2.4
Other government expenditures
1.1
1.4
4.9
3.1
-0.3
-0.7
-1.1
3.3
Government administration
-3.4
-2.4
0.9
5.1
3.7
2.9
1.5
1.6
General agricultural programs
5.5
1.7
-8.3
4.8
4.8
5.5
3.4
-1.3
Forestry
-2.8
-4.0
1.3
1.7
0.9
-0.0
-0.2
-1.3
State administration
-6.0
-4.1
2.2
4.9
3.5
2.4
1.2
2.3
Culture
3.5
1.6
5.5
8.4
5.0
3.8
1.3
2.9
Municipal services
2.7
1.4
3.4
5.3
4.5
3.2
1.6
1.7
Civilian police
-6.0
-4.1
2.2
4.9
3.5
2.4
1.2
2.3
Research and development
7.2
12.1
8.8
6.5
5.9
3.4
1.5
2.3
Outlays not elsewhere classified
2.0
1.1
5.1
2.1
-2.7
-3.3
-3.5
4.7
Gross national product
4.9
5.5
4.8
4.9
3.0
1.9
1.8
2.7
73 ,
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Table A-8
USSR: Annual Growth of GNP by End Use
Percent
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
Consumption
-0.6
6.3
6.6
5.8
5.5
4.6
7.2
7.2
4.1
Consumer goods
-2.7
7.5
8.0
5.9
5.3
5.0
8.6
8.0
3.4
Food
-5.0
7.6
7.1
3.9
5.1
4.3
8.4
8.0
2.5
Animal products
1.1
1.9
5.0
4.8
2.6
8.3
10.3
13.9
4.0
Processed foods
32.0
10.8
19.9
-17.9
23.2
9.4
3.2
4.6
4.9
Basic foods
-18.4
14.5
6.0
5.3
. 3.9
-1.8
5.9
0.9
0.7
Beverages
12.3
11.4
16.3
10.4
.' 12.2
4.5
11.3
4.9
-1.4
Soft goods
13.4
5.6
10.2
15.4
- 3.8
8.3
6.7
8.0
7.4
Durables
16.8
14.9
31.2
27.7
88
9.5
20.9
9.7
9.2
Consumer services
3.4
4.1
3.9
5.4
5.9
? 3.8
4.4
.5.4
5.7
Household services
4.2
4.2
3.6
4.8
5.8
4.3
5.0
6.5
6.8
Housing
2.5
2.6
2.5
2.7
3.0
3.3
4.2
5.1
5.8
Utilities
6.2
6.5
5.7
5.3
5.6
5.7
5.2
7.5
7.7
Transportation
11.5
10.3
12.1
12.1
15.9
7.6
14.8
11.8
10.0
Communications
10.3
9.4
6.6
8.8
7.8
8.3
7.7
5.9
6.7
Repair and personal care
3.3
3.8
4.3
3.9
4.0
0.3
1.7
7.1
13.2
Recreation
15.0
12.4
4.2
17.3
22.3
10.9
7.7
9.9
3.9
Communal services
2.5
3.9
4.3
6.2
5.9
3.2
3.7
4.1
4.1
Education
2.6
3.3
2.9
4.5
4.4
2.8
2.6
3.1
3.0
Health
2.4
4.9
6.9
9.2
8.4
3.9
5.4
5.6
5.7 ?
Investment
20.6
-0.7
15.1
8.3
19.3
11.0
11.4
9.2
11.2
New fixed investment
23.0
-2.4
15.9
7.9
19.1
10.7
11.8
9.9
9.8
Machinery and equipment
1.2
7.3
3.6
21.3
22.1
25.3
10.5
12.5
8.4
Construction and other
15.2
11.6
9.1
10.3
9.5
4.9
8.8
12.6
12.8
Capital repair
10.2
7.6
11.9
9.9
20.3
12.3
9.7
6.4
17.5
Other government expenditures
-7.0
11.5
-5.8
0.6
7.4
19.6
-14.7
7.0
0.4
Government administration
0.4
0.3
-2.6
-2.2
-12.2
-1.8
-4.4
0.7
-2.4
General agricultural programs
9.7
8.9
5.4
40.1
-26.0
4.3
-2.6
7.0
3.6
Forestry
1.7
1.7
-10.1
-3.5
-3.4
-2.2
-5.6
-3.3
-6.7
State administration
-1.5
-1.5
-3.5
-10.7
-12.0
-3.8
-5.8
-0.7
-4.3
Culture
3.4
3.2
2.5
4.5
4.0
1.0
1.5
2.5
1.3
Municipal services
3.9
3.7
2.1
2.0
1.9
2.6
0.9
1.2
0.7
Civilian police
-1.5
-1.5
-3.5
-10.7
-12.0
-3.8
-5.8
-0.7
-4.3
Research and development
9.4
7.9
4.6
5.5
8.5
12.4
10.2
13.0
10.6
Outlays not elsewhere.classified
-10.5
15.9
-7.5
1.1
13.6
25.5
-18.6
7.8
-0.1
Gross national product
0.6
6.5
4.4
4.9
8.5
9.6
2.1
7.6
4.9
.74
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16 : CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Table A-8 (continued)
USSR: Annual Growth of GNP by End Use
Percent
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
Consumption
4.7
3.5
4.1
4.9
0.8
5.0
5.3
5.8
5.9
5.0
Consumer goods
4.3
2.4
3.3
4.7
-1.6
4.8
5.8
6.5
6.5
5.4
Food
3.4
2.2
3.2
5.7
-3.1
4.0
4.8
5.7
5.6
4.8
Animal products
4.7
1.8
2.1
10.5
-9.6
4.4
8.0
6.8
7.0
6.2
PTOCnsed foods
7.2
4.6
6.5
4.4
9.2
4.4
1.3
5.8
4.4
5.4
Basic foods
0.2
0.8
2.2
-2.3
4.5
2.8
-0.4
3.0
3.4
-1.2
Beverages
4.3
7.9
10.2
4.9
3.9
5.4
5.7
7.7
5.6
11.6
goods ,
7.2
3.7
3.6
0.5
3.5
7.0
8.9
. 8.9
8.9
7.5
_Soft
Durables
12.9
1.8
5.5
-0.2
9.5
11.4
12.5
10.5
11.3
7.1
Consumer services
5.7
5.7
5.6
5.2
5.4
5.4
4.6
4.6
4.8
4.2
Household services
6.0
6.0
5.5
4.7
5.3
5.4
4.6
5.3
5.0
4.5
Housing
5.7
4.9
4.3
3.8
3.4
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.1
2.9
Utilities
6.9
9.9
10.1
9.6
9.2
8.5
6.7
5.9
6.8
6.8
Transportation
12.1
10.8
13.7
10.9
8.1
9.5
11.1
10.0
9.9
7.9
Communications
7.7
6.0
6.2
6.4
7.9
10.2
10.7
10.3
6.9
8.3
Repair and personal care
5.0
4.8
4.9
5.1
7.8
9.3
6.9
7.8
7.4
7.8
Recreation
3.8
7.1
3.2
0.3
7.2
6.2
0.3
7.3
5.4
1.3
Communal services
5.3
5.3
5.6
5.9
5.6
5.3
4.6
3.6
4.5
3.9
Education
4.9
6.2
8.2
6.9
6.8
5.8
4.9
3.9
4.6
3.9
Health
5.9
4.0
2.0
4.3
3.7
4.6
4.0
3.0
4.3
3.9
Investment
4.8
11.6
3.5
-7.9
21.7
9.7
-0.1
3.4
5.7
6.1
New fixed investment
4.4
12.1
2.3
-13.1
26.1
11.2
-0.8
3.9
5.9
6.9
Machinery and equipment
10.4
8.6
12.9
10.7
13.1
7.1
5.6
7.6
8.0
4.7
Construction and other
7.4
4.1
4.5
3.6
4.3
8.0
3.1
9.2
5.0
4.7
Capital repair.
6.3
9.2
8.6
13.0
7.9
4.4
2.5
1.8
4.8
3.0
Other government expenditures
-2.2
4.5
-2.1
-14.9
42.9
2.0
10.1
2.5
6.5
-12.7
Government administration
-4.0
-6.9
1.9
0.4
4.1
5.3
5.4
6.9
5.6
4.9
General agricultural programs
-3.6
-37.4
-1.6
-1.4
3.7
2.9
5.9
9.4
7.5
1.5
Forestry
-1.9
0.7
2.9
2.3
1.8
-1.3
2.2
1.0
2.4
1.4
State administration
-5.9
-0.5
1.6
-0.8
4.0
7.0
5.9
6.6
4.9
5.4
Culture
1.7
3.2
6.4
5.4
6.8
5.6
4.8
ithu
i(.1
Municipal services
1.8
1.1
3.3
3.9
5.1
3.7
4.8
7.7
4.9
4.9
Civilian police
-5.9
-0.5
1.6
-0.8
4.0
7.0
5.9
6.6
4.9
5.4
Research and development
14.3
11.5
11.0
7.8
8.5
5.2
6.5
4.2
6.7
6.7
Outlays not elsewhere classified
-3.8
5.9
-4.8
-21.8
60.8
1.0
11.6
1.6
6.6
-18.9
Gross national product ?
3.2
5.7
2.7
-2.3
13.0
5.6
4.8
4.5
5.9
1.5
75
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Table A-8 (continued)
USSR: Annual Growth of GNP by End Use
Percent
---- _ ?
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
Consumption
4.5
3.7
2.2
3.5
3.8
4.0
2.0
2.3
2.3
2.8
Consumer goods
4.6
3.7
1.7
3.8
3.8
4.3
1.5
2.5
2.0
2.8
Food
3.6
2.8
0.3
3.5
3.5
3.5
0.3
1.5
1.5
2.3
Animal products
2.3
2.1
1.2
4.2
4.2
4.2
-0.2
0.5
1.9
2.8
Processed foods
4.1
2.2
1.6
6.3
2.8
0.7
4.3
3.7
3.5
1.1
Basic foods
5.0
3.6
-4.1
4.1
-0.8
0.5
-1.8
3.1
2.2
-0.4
Beverages
6.4
4.7
5.0
-2.4
8.8
7.5
3.6
1.9
-2.2
5.3
Soft goods
7.1
4.4
.
2.5-
3.1
3.5
4.9
4.4
3.3
2.8
3.9
Durables
11.6
13.0
14.7
8.1
8.2
9.7
6.4
8.8
4.2
4.5
Consumer services
4.2
3.6
3.3
3.1-
3.9
3.6
2.9
1.9
2.9
2.8
Household services
4.2
4.1
4.3
3.8
4.4
4.2
3.2
2.0
3.2
3.3
Housing
2.8
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.4
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.0
Utilities
6.3
6.7
6.6
6.2
6.1
5.8
6.0
3.9
4.8
4.1
Transportation
7.7
7.3
- 7.5
5.9
8.1
7.9
6.2
-3.1
3.3
5.0
Communications
7.1
6.7
6.7
6.2
6.1
6.2
5.2
4.5
4.3
4.8
Repair and personal care
6.4
5.1
5.5
5.6
5.3
5.0
4.8
4.0
5.6
5.0
Recreation
2.1
3.1
4.3
1.4
6.2
4.7
-2.9
1.9
2.1
2.8
Communal services
4.0
2.9
1.9
2.1
3.0
2.7
2.4
1.8
2.5
2.1
Education
2.9
3.0
1.5
2.0
3.0
2.8
2.7
2.0
2.3
2.2
Health
6.0
2.6
2.4
2.2
3.0
2.4
2.0
1.5
2.8
1.9
Investment
12.7
3.7
3.5
7.7
5.1
0.5
5.0
3.5
1.7
-0.2
New fixed investment
15.0
2.9
2.4
6.3
4.3
1.5
4.7
3.1
1.4
-1.2
Machinery and equipment
12.4
5.3
8.2
7.6
10.0
12.8
9.7
5.7
8.4
3.6
Construction and other
9.1
5.6
4.4
3.0
2.3
2.8
-0.6
-0.9
-0.0
-2.7
Capital repair .
3.4
7.1
8.2
13.2
8.2
-3.3
6.2
5.0
2.6
3.4
Other government expenditures
11.0
-1.3
-8.6
26.6
-3.3
-10.6
13.8
0.3
5.2
-11.0
Government administration
2.5
4.1
3.8
3.3
4.1
3.4
3.0
2.7
2.9
2.4
General agricultural programs
-0.0
6.7
4.5
4.0
4.1
4.7
9.0
2.3
6.2
3.9
Forestry
1.4
0.4
2.3
-0.5
1.4
0.7
-0.9
0.4
0.9
-0.2
State administration
1.9
3.3
3.6
3.2
4.2
3.3
2.1
2.2
2.1
2.4
Culture
8.3
6.9
4.2
4.7
5.4
4.0
3.8
5.6
3.7
1.9
Municipal services
3.9
5.9
4.9
3.7
4.2
3.7
2.3
3.6
3.8
3.0
Civilian police
1.9
3.3
3.6
3.2
4.2
3.3
2.1
2.2
2.1
2.4
Research and development
8.2
6.5
7.2
6.7
4.3
4.9
1.4
2.6
3.2
4.2
Outlays not elsewhere classified
13.5
-4.0
-14.8
38.4
-6.5
-17.5
20.5
-0.8
6.4
-18.1
Gross national product
7.9
2.7
0.6
8.5
2.8
0.3
4.8
2.3
2.6
-0.5
76
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Table A-8 (continued)
USSR: Annual Growth or GNP by End Use
Percent
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
Consumption
2.9
1.9
0.8
2.3
3.1
2.2
1.7
2.7
Consumer goods
3.0
1.7
-0.3
/.3
3.3
1.9
1.3
2.3
Food
2.1
0.6
-0.0
2.4
2.9
0.7
-0.9
1.7
Animal products
1.6
-0.0
-1.2
2.9
3.8
3.7
2.2
3.7
Processed foods
4.8
2.3
1.7
1.2
1.0
-0.3
4.1
5.8
Basic foods
0.8
1.7
4.0
1.8
1.7
0.9
5.4
-0.3
Beverages
4.5
0.8
-1.9
2.4
2.2
-11.4
-30.6
-10.3
Soft goods
4.1
2.9
-0.7
1.5
3.4
4.1
3.2
1.3
Durables
7.5
7.!
-1.7
2.6
5.5
6.1
11.6
6.5
Consumer services
2.8
2.2
2.8
2.3
/3
2.6
2.5
3.4
Household services
3.5
3.0
2.7
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.7
Housing
1.9
2.3
2.8
2.8
2.5
2.4
2.7
2.9
Utilities
4.5
3.6
3.9
4.2.
5.1
4.2
4.0
4.2
Transportation
4.8
3.6
1.9
2.3
2.5
2.6
3.2
2.3
Communications
4.7
4.3
2.2
3.5
4.7
4.7
5.5
6.8
Repair and personal care
5.2
4.2
2.9
4.4
4.0
4.4
4.1
7.2
Recreation
4.3
2.2
1.1
0.8
1.4
2.1
0.4
1.3
Communal services
1.7
0.9
2.9
1.3
2.1
1.9
1.4
2.9
Education
/.3
0.9
3.3
0.9
2.0
2.1
2.0
2.3
Health
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.9
2.3
1.7
0.4
4.0
Investment
0.8
2.9
1.5
4.7
1.1
3.2
5.4
1.2
New fixed investment
0.4
3.1
2.0
4.9
1.2
2.9
6.6
0.6
Machinery and equipment
5.2
-1 2
5.1
4.7
6.8
1.3
5.3
6.9
1.3
Construction and other
1.0
-0.8
3.2
2:8
2.3
4.9
2.9
Capital repair
7.2
2.3
-0.2
3.8
0.7
4.1
1.1
3.6
Other government expenditures
-9.8
-6.9
12.9
3.5.
-4.0
-9.5
11.2
-4.1
Government administration
3.5
2.4
1.6
1.1
1.5
0.9
L.5
1.7
General agricultural programs
6.0
4.6
4.3
2.0
3.0
3.3
-2.8
0.2
Forestry
-0.3
-0.0
-0.2
-0.2
-0.3
-0.2
-0.4
-2.2
State administration
3.2
2.2
1.1
1.2
1.4
0.2
1.6
2.0
Culture
4.1
3.1
1.9
-0.1
1.0
0.8
2.2
3.6
Municipal services
3.4
1.1
0.6
1.6
2.1
2.3
2.1
1.2
Civilian police
3.2
2.2
1.1
1.2
1.4
0.2
2.6
2.0
Research and development
5.6
3.1
- 2.3
7.4
2.8
1.7
1.3
3.3
Outlays not elsewhere classified
-18.9
-14.8
25.9
4.8
-8.6
-18.7
21.5
-9.8
Gross national product
0.3
0.9
2.6
3.2
1.4
0.9
4.0
1.3
77
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Table A-9
USSR: Indexes of GNP by End Use
1982=100
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
-1958 1959
Consumption '
28.6
28.4
30.2
32.2
34.0
35.9
37.5
40.2
43.1 44.9
Consumer goods
29.4
28.6
30.7
33.2
35.1
37.0
38.8
47.1
45.6 47.1
Food
36.5
34.7
37.3
40.0
41.5
43.6
45.5
49.3
53.7 54.6
Animal products
32.4
18.5
32.8
33.4
35.0
36.7
37.7
40.8
45.0
51.3 53.3
Processed foods
24.5
27.1
32.5
26.7
32.9
35.9
37.1
38.8 40.7
Basic foods
64.6
52.7
60.3
63.9
67.4
70.0
68.8
72.9
73.5 74.1
Beverages
16.3
18.3
20.4
23.7
26.1
29.3
30.6
34.1
35.8 35.3
Soft goods
16.5
18.7
19.8
21.8
25.2
26.6
78.9
30.8
33.3 35.8
Durables
4.5
5.7
6.0
7.9
10.0
10.9
11.9
14.4
15.8 17.3
Consumer services .
27.2
28.2
29.3
30.5
32.1.
34.0
35.3
36.8
38.9 41.1
Household services
24.7
25.7
26.8
27.7
29.1
30.7
32.1
33.7
35.9 38.3
. Housing
37.4
38.3
39.3
40.3
41.4
42.6
44.1
45.9
48.3 51.0
Utilities
13.9
14.7
15.7
16.6
17.5 .
18.4
.19.5
20.5
22.0 23.7
Transportation
7.2
8.1
8.9
10.0
11.2
12.9
13.9
16.0
17.9 19.6
Communications
11.8
13.0
14.3
15.2
16.6
17.9
19.4
20.8
22.1 23.6
Repair and personal care
18.7
19.3
20.0
20.9
21.7
22.6
22.7
23.0
24.7 27.9
Recreation
18.2
20.9
23.5
24.5
28.7
35.1
39.0
42.0
46.1 47.9
Communal services
31.4
32.2
33.4
34.9
37.0
39.2
40.5
42.0
43.7 45.5
Education
32.1
33.0
34.0
35.0
36.6
38.2
39.3
40.3
41.5 42.8
Health
30.2
30.9
32.4
34.6
37.8
41.0
42.6
44.9
47.4 50.1
Investment
13.6
16.4
16.3
18.8
20.3
24.2
26.9
30.0
32.7 36.4
New fixed investment
14.1
17.4
17.0
19.7
21.2
25.3
28.0
31.3
34.4 37.7
Machinery and equipment
5.9
6.0
6.4
6.7
8.1
9.9
12.4
13.6
15.4 16.6
Construction and other
19.5
22.4
25.0
27.3
30.1
33.0
34.6
37.6
42.4 47.8
Net additions to livestock
8.9
130.2
-51.5
52.0
-5.7
132.6
198.2
279.2
241.8 208.3
Capital repair
11.7
12.9
13.9
15.5
17.0
20.5
23.0
25.3
26.9 31.6
Other government expenditures
59.8
55.6
62.0
58.4
58.8
63.1
75.5
64.4
68.9 69.2
Government administration
69.5
69.8
70.0
68.3
66.7
58.6
57.6
55.0
55.4 54.1
General agricultural programs
47.8
52.5
57.1
60.2
84.4
62.4
65.1
63.4
67.9 70.3
Forestry
117.1
119.2
121.2
108.9
105.1
101.5
99.3
93.7
90.6 84.5
State administration
85.6
84.3
83.0
80.1
71.5
62.9
60.5
57.0
56.6 54.1
Culture .
24.6
25.4
26.2
26.9
28.1
29.2
29.5
30.0
30.7 31.1
Municipal services
36.0
37.4
38.8
39.6
40.4
41.1
42.2
42.6
43.1 43.4
Civilian police
85.6
84.3
83.0
80.1
71.5
62.9
60.5
57.0
56.6 54.1
Research and development
12.1
13.2
14.3
14.9
15.7
17.1
19.2
21.2
23.9 26.4
Outlays not elsewhere classified
76.1
68.2
79.0
73.0
73.9
83.9
105.3
85.7
92.4 92.3
Gross national product
28.5
28.7
30.5
31.9
33.4
36.3
39.7
40.6
43.7 45.8
78
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Table A-9 (continued)
USSR: Indexes of GNP by End Use
1982=100
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
-1968
1969
Consumption'
47.0
48.7
50.7
53.1
53.6
56.3
39.3
62.7
66.4
69.7
Consumer goods
49.1
50.3
52.0
54.4
53.5
56.1
59.3
63.2
67.2
70.8
Food
56.4
57.7
59.5
62.9
60.9
63.4
66.4
70.2
74.2
77.7
Animal products
55.8
56.8
58.0
64.1
57.9
60.4
65.3
69.7
74.6
79.2
Processed foods
43.6
45.6
48.5
50.7
55.3
57.7
58.5
61.9
64.6
68.1
Basic foods
74.2
74.8
76.4
74.7
78.0
80.2
79.9
82.3
85.1
84.0
Beverages
36.8
39.7
43.7
45.9
47.7
50.2
53.1
57.2
60.4
67.3
Soft goods
38.3
39.8
41.2
41.4
42.9
45.9
49.9
54.4
59.2
63.7
Durables
19.5
19.9
21.0
20.9
77.9
25.5
28.7
31.7
35.2
37.7
Consumer services
43.4
45.9
48.4
50.9
53.7
56.6
59.2
61.9
64.9
67.6
Household services
40.6
- 43.0
45.4
47.6
50.1
52.8
55.2
58.1
61.1
- 63.8
Housing
53.9
56.6
59.0
61.3
63.3
65.3
67.4
69.5
71.7
73.8,
Utilities ;
25.4
27.9
30.7
33.6
36.7
39.8
42.5
45.0
48.1
51.3
sTransportation
22.0
24.4
27.7
30.8
33.3
36.4
40.5
443
48.9
52.8
Communications
25.4
26.9
28.6
30.4
32.8
36.1
40.0
44.1
47.2
51.1
Repair and personal care
29.3
30.7
32.2
33.9
36.5.
39.9
42.6
46.0
49.4
53.2
Recreation
49.8
53.3
55.0
55.2
59.2
62.8
63.0
67.6
71.2
72.1
Communal services
47.9
50.4
53.3
56.4
59.6
62.7
65.6
68.0
71.0
73.8
Education
44.9
47.7
51.5
55.1
58.8
62.2
65.3
67.8
70.9
71.2
73.6
...__ _
Health
53.1
55.2
56.3
58.7
60.8
63.6
66.2
68.2
74.0
-Investment
38.1
42.5
44.0
40.5
49.3
54.1
54.0
55.9
59.1
62.7
New fixed investment
39.4
44.2
45.2
39.3
49.5
55.1
54.6
56.7
60.1
64.2
Machinery and equipment
18.4
20.0
22.5
25.0
28.2
30.2
31.9
34.3
37.1
38.8
Construction and other
51.3
53.5
55.8
57.9
60.4
65.2
67.3
73.5
77.2
80.8
Net additions to livestock
111.6
356.0
235.1
-447.6
185.2
342.7
146.0
-70.8
-66.0
43.7
Capital repair
33.6
36.6
39.8
45.0
483
50.6
51.9
52.9
55.4
57.0
Other government expenditures
6.7.7
70.7
69.2
58.9
84.2
85.9
94.6
97.0
103.3
90.1
Government administration
51.9
48.3
49.3
49.4
51.5
54.2
57.2
61.1
64.5
67.7
General agricultural programs
67.8
42.5
41.8
41.2
42.7
44.0
46.6
50.9
54.7
55.6
Forestry
82.9
83.5
86.0
88.0
89.5
88.4
90.4
91.3
93.5
94.8
State administration
51.0
50.7
51.5
51.1
53.2
56.9
60.3
64.2
67.4
71.0
Culture
31.6
32.6
34.7
36.6
39.1
41.3
43.3
47.6
57.4
57.0
Municipal services
44.1
44.6
46.1
47.9
50.3
52.2
54.7
59.0
61.9
64.9
Civilian police
51.0
50.7
51.5
51.1
53.2
56.9
60.3
64.2
67.4
71.0
Research and development
30.2
33.7
37.4
40.3
43.7
46.0
49.0
51.1
54.5
58.2
Outlays not elsewhere classified
88.8
94.0
89.5
70.0
112.5
113.6
126.8
128.7
137.2
111.3
Gross national product
47.3
50.0
51.3
50.1
56.7
59.8
62.7
65.5
69.4
70.5
79
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Table A-9 (continued)
USSR: Indexes of GNP by End Use
1982
= 100
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
-1978
1979
Consumption
72.8
75.4
77.1
79.8
82.9
86.2
88.0
90.0
92.1
94.6
Consumer goods
74.1
76.9
78.1
81.1
84.2
87.8
89.1
91.3
93.2
95.8
Food
80.5
82.8
83.1
85.9
88.9
92.0
92.3
93.7
95.2
97.3
Animal products
81.0
82.7
83.6
87.2
90.9
94.7
94.6
95.0
96.8
99.6
Processed foods
70.9
72.5
73.6
78.2
80.5
81.0
84.5
87.7
90.8
91.8
Basic foods
88.2
91.4
87.6
91.2
90.5
91.0
89.4
91.1
94.2
93.8
Beverages
71.6
75.0
78.8
76.9
83.7
89.9
93.1
94.9
92.8
97.7
Soft goods
68.2
71.2
73.0
75.3
77.9
81.7
85.3
88.1
90.5
94.0
Durables
42.1
47.6
54.6
59.0
63.8
70.0
74.5.
81.1
84.5
88.3
Consumer services
70.4
72.9
75.3
77.7
80.7
83.5'
85.9
87.6
90.1
92.7
Household services ? ?
66.5
69.2
72.2
74.9
78.2
81.5
84.1
85.8
88.5
? 91.4
Housing ? ?
75.8
77.8
79.8
81.8
83.8
85.8
87.7
89.6
91.5
93.3
Utilities
54.6
58.2
62.0
65.9
69.9
74.0
78.4
81.5
85.4
88.9
Transportation
56.8
61.0
65.6
69.4
75.1
81.0
86.0
83.3
86.1
90.4
Communications
54.7
58.4
62.3
66.2
70.3
74.6
78.5
82.0
85.5
89.6
Repair and personal care
56.6
59.5
62.8
66.3
69.8
73.3
76.8
79.9
84.4
88.6
Recreation
73.7
76.0
79.2
80.3
85.3
89.4
86.7
88.4
90.3
92.8
Communal services
76.8
79.0
80.4
82.1
84.6
86.8
88.9
90.5
92.8
94.7
Education
75.8
78.1
79.3
80.9
83.3
85.6
87.9
89.7
91.7
93.7
Health
78.4
80.5
82.4
84.2
86.7
88.8
90.6
92.0
94.6
96.4
. Investment
70.6
73.2
75.8
81.6
85.8
86.2
90.5
93.7
95.2
95.1
New fixed investment
73.9
76.1
77.9
82.8
86.3
87.7
91.8
94.6
96.0
94.8
Machinery and equipment
43.6
46.0
49.7
53.5
58.9
66.4
72.8
76.9
83.4
86.4
Construction and other
88.1
93.1
97.2
100.1
102.5
105.3
104.7
103.8
103.7
100.9
Net additions to livestock
328.6
184.5
5.5
150.8
155.8
-122.2
45.9
204.5
109.4
57.3
Capital repair
59.0
63.2
68.4
77.3
83.7
80.9
86.0
90.2
92.6
95.8
Other government expenditures
100.1
98.7
90.3
114.3
110.5
98.7
112.3
112.7
118.6
105.6
Government administration
69.4
72.2
74.9
77.4
80.6
83.3
85.8
88.1
90.6
92.9
General agricultural programs
55.6
59.3
62.0
64.4
67.1
70.2
76.6
78.3
83.2
86.4
Forestry
96.2
96.5
98.8
98.3
99.7
100.4
99.4
99.9
100.8
100.5
State administration
72.3
74.7
77.3
79.8
83.1
85.9
87.7
89.6
91.5
93.7
Culture
61.7
66.0
68.8
72.0
75.9
78.9
81.9
86.5
89.7
91.4
Municipal services
67.5
71.4
74.9
77.7
81.0
83.9
85.9
89.0
92.4
95.1
Civilian police
72.3
74.7
77.3
79.8
83.1
85.9
87.7
69.6
91.5
93.7
Research and development
63.0
67.1
71.9
76.7
80.0
83.9
85.1
87.4
90.1
93.9
Outlays not elsewhere classified
126.3
121.2
103.3
143.0
133.7
110.3
133.0
131:9
140.3
115.0
Gross national product
76.0
78.1
78.6
85.3
87.7
88.0
92.2
94.4
96.8
96.3
80
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Table A-9 (continued)
USSR: Indexes of GNP by End Use
1982
= 100
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986.
1987
Consumption
97.4
99.2
100.0
102.3
105.4
107.7
109.6
112.5
Consumer goods
98.6
100.3
100.0
102.3
105.6
107.6
109.0
111.4
Food
99.4
100.0
100.0
102.4
105.4
106.1
105.1
106.9
Animal products
101.2
101.2
100.0
102.9
106.8
110.8
113.2
117.4
Processed foods
96.2
98.4
100.0
101.2
102.3
102.0
106.3
112.5
Basic foods
94.6
96.2
100.0
101.8
103.6
104.6
110.2
109.8
Beverages
102.2
103.0
100.0
102.4
104.6
92.7
64.4
57.7
Soft goods
97.9
100.7
100.0
101.5
104.9
109.2
112.7
114.2
Durables
95.0
101.7
100.0
102.6
108.3
114.9
128.3
136.7
Consumer services
95.2
97.3
100.0
102.3
105.1
107.9
110.6
114.4
Household services
94.6
97.4
100.0
103.0
106.2
109.5
112.8
117.0
Housing
95.1
97.3
100.0
102.8
105.4
108.0
110.9
114.1
Utilities
92.9
96.2
100.0
104.2
109.5
114.1
118.7
123.6
Transportation
94.7
98.1
100.0
102.3
104.9
107.6
111.1
113.6
Communications
93.8
97.9
100.0
103.5
108.3
113.4
119.6
127.8
Repair and personal care
93.2
97.2
100.0
104.4
108.6
113.4
118.0
126.5
Recreation
96.8
98.9
100.0
100.8
102.2
104.3
104.7
106.0
Communal servims
96.3
97.2
100.0
101.3
103.4
105.4
106.9
110.0
- _ ..
Education
95.9
96.8
100.0
100.9
102.9
105.0
107.1
109.6
Health
97.0
97.9
100.0
101.9
104.2
106.0
106.4
110.7
Investment
95.8
98.5
100.0
104.7
105.8
109.1
115.0
116.4
New fixed investment
95.2
98.1
100.0
104.9
106.1
109.2
116.4
117.1
Machinery and equipment
90.9
95.5
100.0
l06?8
108.2
114.0
121.8
123.4
Construction and other
99.8
100.8
100.0
103.2
106.0
108.5
113.8
117.0
Net additions to livestock
0.7
43.6
100.0
130.8
44.3
-6.5
72.4
-86.1
Capital repair
98.0
100.2
100.0
103.8
104.5
108.7
110.0
113.9
Other government expenditures
95.2
88.6
100.0
103.5
.99.4
89.9
100.0
96.0
Government administration
96.1
98.5
100.0
101.1
102.6
103.6
105.2
106.9
General agricultural programs
91.6
95.9
100.0
102.0
105.0
108.5
105.5
105.8
Forestry
100.3
100.2
100.0
99.8
99.6
99.4
99.0
96.8
State administration
96.8
98.9
100.0
101.2
102.6
102.8
105.5
107.6
Culture
95.2
98.2
100.0
99.9
100.9
101.8
104.0
107.7
Municipal services
98.3
99.4
100.0
101.6
103.8
106.2
108.4
109.8
Civilian police
96.8
98.9
100.0
101.2
102.6
102.8
105.5
107.6
? Research and development
99.2
102.3
100.0
102.4
105.3
107.1
108.5
112.0
Outlays not elsewhere classified
93.2
79.4
100.0
104.8
95.8
77.9
94.7
85.4
Gross national product
96.6
97.5
100.0
103.2
104.7
105.6
109.8
111.3
81
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Table A-10
USSR: Shares of GNP by End Use
Percent
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1976
1977
1978 1979
Consumption
55.5
54.7
55.0
52.0
57.9
54.2
52.7
52.7
52.6 54.3
Consumer goods
36.3
35.9
36.6
33.0
34.3
35.1
34.0
34.1
33.9 35.0
Food
32.0
30.1
29.8
26.5
26.5
26.1
25.0
24.8
24.5 25.2
Animal products
15.4
14.1
16.0
13.7
14.5
14.6
13.9
13.7
13.6 14.0
Processed foods
1.4
1.9
1.9
2.0
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
2.0 2.0
Basic foods
13.2
11.2
9.1
7.8
6.8
6.0
5.6
5.7
5.7 5.7
Beverages
2.0
2.8
1,7
2.9
3.3
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.4 3.5
Soft goods
3.7
4.7
5.2
4.9
5.8
6.0
6.0
6.0
6.0 6.3
Durables
0.6
1.1
1.6
1.6
1,1
3.0
3.1
3.3
3.3 3.5
Consumer services
19.2
18.8
18.4
19.0
18.6
19.0
18.7
18.6
18.7 19.3
Household services
10.7
10.5
10.7
10.9
10.9.
11.5
11.3
11.3
11.3 11.8
Housing
7.3
6.6
6.4
6.1
5.6
5.5
5.3
5.3
5.3 . 5.4
Utilities
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.1
1.2
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.5 ' 1.5
-
Transportation
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5 1.5
Communications
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.40.4
_ _
1.1 1 8
Repair and personal care
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.7
1.7
Recreation
0.7
1.1
1.2
1.7
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
i .0 ' .1
Communal services
8.4
8.3
7.7
8.0
7.7
7.5
7.4
7.3
_ .
7 3 7.5
Education
5.4
5.1
4.6
5.0
4.8
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.6 4.7
Health
3.0
3.2
3.2
3.0
1,9
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.8 2.8
Investment
14.5
20.3
24.5
27.5
28.3
29.8
29.8
30.2
29.9 30.0
New fixed investment
11.8
16.6
19.8
21.9
23.1
23.7
23.7
23.8
23.6 23.4
Machinery and equipment
1.9
2.5
3.5
4.6
5.7
6.9
7.2
7.4
7.9 8.2
15 4 15.0
0.3 0.2
Construction and other
9.8
13.1
15.6
15.6
16.6
17.2
16.3
15.8
Net additions to livestock
0.1
1.0
0.7
1.6
I.2
-0.4
0.1
0.6
Capital repair
2.7
3.8
4.7
5.6
5.2
6.1
6.2
6.4
h 4 6.6
.. _
17.5 15.7
Other government expenditures
30.0
24.9
20.5
20.5
18.8
16.1
17.4
17.1
Government administration
7.0
4.6
3.1
7.6
2.6
2.7
7.7
2.7
2.7 7.8
General agricultural programs
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.4 0.4
Forestry
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2 0.2
State administration
3.2
1.8
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0 1.0
Culture
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4 0.4
Municipal services
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2 0.2
Civilian police
1.8
1.1
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6 0.6
3.1 3.3
Research and development
1.4
1.6
2.1
2.6
2.8
3.2
3.1
3.1
Outlays not elsewhere classified
21.6
18.7
15.2
15.4
13.4
10.1
11.7
11.3
11.7 9.7
Gross national product
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0 100.0
82
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
?
Table A-10 (continued)
USSR: Shares of GNP by End Use
Percent
1980
1981
19821983
1984
1985
1986
1987
Consumption ?
55.7
56.3
55.3
54.8
55.7
56.4
55.T
55.9
Consumer goods
36.0
36.2
35.2
34.9
35.5
35.9
35.0
35.3
Food
25.7
25.6
25.0
24.8
25.1
25.1
23.9
24.0
Animal products
14.2
14.1
13.6
13.5
13.8
14.2
14.0
14.3
Processed foods
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.1
Basic foods
5.7
5.7
5.8
5.7
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.7
Beverages
3.7
3.7
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.1
2.1
1.8
Soft goods
6.5
6.7
6.4
6.3
6.5
6.7
6.6
6.6
Durables
3.7
4.0
3.8
3.8
3.9
4.2
4.5
4.7
Consumer services
19.8
20.0
20.0
19.9
20.1
20.5
20.2
20.6
Household services
12.1
12.4
12.4
12.4
12.6
12.9
12.7
13.0
Housing
5:5
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.7
5.6
5.7
Utilities ,
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.8
Transportation
1.6
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
Communications
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
Repair and personal care
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.3
Recreation
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
Communal services
7.6
7.6
7.6
7.5
7.5
7.6
7.4
7.6
Education
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.7
4.7
4.8
4.7
4.7
Health
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.8
Investment
30.2
30.7
30.4
30.8
? 30.7
31.4
31.8
31.8
?New fixed investment
..........
23.4
23.9
23.8
24.2
24.1
24.6
25.2
.25.0
Machinery and equipment
8.6
8.9
9.1
9.4
9.4
9.8
10.1
10.1
Construction and other
14.8
14.8
14.4
14.4
14.5
14.8
14.9
15.1
Net additions to livestock
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.1
-0.0
0.2
-0.2
Capital repair
6.7
6.8
6.6
6.7
6.6.
6.8
6.7
6.8
Other government expenditures
14.1
13.0
14.3
14.4
13.6
12.2
13.0
12.3
Government administration
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.8
/.8
2.8
2.7
2.8
General agricultural programs
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
Forestry
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
State administration
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
Culture
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
Municipal services
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
Civilian police
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
Research and development
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.4
Outlays not elsewhere classified
7.8
6.6
8.1
8.2
7.4
6.0
7.0
6.2
Gross national product
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
83
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Table A-11
USSR: Consumption in 1982 Established Prices
Billion l982
rubles
1939
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1953
1956
1957
T958
Consumer goods
71.0
71.7
77.5
85.2
91.4
97.5
102.7
111.7
119.9
114.0
88.4
Food
56.0
54.6
59.3
64.7
67.2
71.8
74.8
81.2
86.8
Animal products
21.1
21.3
21.7
22.8
23.9
24.5
26.6
29.3
33.4
34.7
_
8.1
Processed foods
3.7
4.9
5.4
6.5
5.3
6.5
7.1
7.4
24.4
7.7
14.6
Basic foods
21.6
17.6
20.2
21.4
/2.5
23.4
23.0
24.8
Beverages
9.6
10.8
12.1
14.0
15.5
17.3
18.1
20.2
11.7
20.9
28.5
Soft goods
13.2
14.9
15.8
17.4
20.1
21.2
? 23.0
24.6
26.5
Durables
1.8
2.1
20.6
2.4
3.2
4.1
4.5
4.9
5.9
6.5
7.1
Consumer services
19.8
21.5
22.5
23.9
25.6
26.5
27.7
29.3
31.0
Household services
7.5
8.0
8.4
8.8
9.4
10.2
10.6
11.1
12.1
13.1
Housing
2.3
2.3
2.4
2.4
-2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.1
Utilities
9.9
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
Transportation
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
- 1.4
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
Communications
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
Repair and personal care
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
/.9
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.3
3.8
Recreation
Communal services .
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.2
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.9
2.0
12.3
12.6
13.1
13.7
14.5
15.4
15.9
16.5
17.1
17.8
Education
Health
. ..._
7.9
8.1
8.4
8.6
9.0
9.4
9.7
9.9
10.2
10.5
4.4
4.5
4.7
5.1
5.5
6.0
6.2
6.5
6.9
73
155.0
_
Consumption
90.8
92.3
99.1
107.8
115.3
123.1
129.3
139.4
149.1
84
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16 : CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Table A-I1 (continued)
USSR: Consumption in 1982 Established Prices
Billion 1982 rubles
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
-1968
1969
Consumer goods
130.1
134.3
140.2
[45.4
146.5
154.3
163.8
175.3
187.1
199.2
133.0
Food
91.6
94.5
98.8
103.9
103.0
107.4
112.3
119.0
1/5.6
Animal products
36.3
37.0
37.7
41.7
37.7
39.3
42.5
45.4
48.5
51.5
Processed foods
8.7
9.1
9.7
10.1
11.0
11.5
11.6
12.3
12.9
13.5
Basic foods
24.8
25.0
25.6
25.0
/6.1
26.8
26.7
27.5
28.5
28.1
Beverages
21.8
23.5
25.9
27.1
28.2
29.7
31.4
33.8
35.7
39.8
Soft goods
30.6
31.7
3/.9
33.0
34.2
36.6
39.8
43.4
47.2
50.8
Durables
8.0
8.1
8.5
8.5 .
9.3
10.4
11.7
12.9
14.4
15.4
Consumer services
32.8
34.7
36.8
39.0
41.4
44.0
46.4
48.8
51.4
53.9
Household services
14.0
14.9
15.9
16.9
18.1
1.9.4
4.0
20.6
4.1
22.1
4.2
23.6
4.4
25.0
4.5
Housing
3.3
3.4
3.6
3.7
3.9 '
Utilities
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.1
2.3
2.5.
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.3
Transportation
/.4
2.6
3.0
3.3
3.6
3.9
4.3
4.8
5.3
5.7
Communications
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
Repair and personal care
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.9
5.4
5.8
6./
6.7
7.2
Recreation
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.4
2.6
2.6
2.8
2.9
3.0
Communal services
18.8
19.8
20.9
22.1
23.4
24.6
25.7
26.7
27.8
28.9
18.1
10.8
Education
11.1
11.7
12.7
13.6
14.5
15.3
16.1
16.7
17.5
Health
7.7
8.1
8.2
8.6
8.9
9.3
9.7
10.0
10.4
Consumption
162.9
169.1
177.1
184.4
187.9
198.4
210.1
224.1
238.6
253.2
85
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16 : CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Table A-11 (continued)
USSR: Consumption in 1982 Established Prices
Billion 1982 rubles
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
-1978
1979
Consumer goods
210.3
219.4
225.5
232.4
243.1
255.1
261.7
269.6
274.2
283.3
Food
138.7
143.2
145.0
148.3
154.9
161.4
163.4
166.3
167.5
172.3
Animal products
52.7
53.8
54.4
56.7
59.1
61.6
61.5
61.9
63.0
64.8
Processed foods
14.1
14.4
14.6
15.6
16.0
16.1
16.8
17.4
18.1
18.3
Basic foods
29.5
30.6
29.3
30.5
30.3
30.4
29.9
30.8
31.5
31.4
Beverages
42.4
44.4
46.6
45.5
49.5
53.2
55.1
56.2
54.9
57.8
Soft goods
54.4
56.8
58./
60.0
62.1
65.1
68.0
70.3
71.1
75.0
Durables
17./
19.4
22.3
24.1
26.0
28.6
30.4
33.1
34.5
36.0
Consumer services
56.5
58.8
60.9
62.9
65.7
68.3
70.6
71.8
74.1
76.5
Household services
26.4
27.8
29.3
30.7
32.5
343
35.7
36.3
37.7
39.3
Housing
4.6
4.7
4.9
5.0
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.6
-5.7
Utilities :
3.5
3.7
4.0
4.2
4.5
4.7
5.0
5.2
5.4
. 5.7
Transportation
6.1
6.6
7.0
7.5
8.1
8.7
9./
9.0
9.3
9.7
Communications
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
7.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
Repair and personal care
7.7
8.1
8.5
9.0
9.5
9.9
10.4
10.8
11.4
12..0
Recreation
3.0
3.1
3.3
3.3
3.5
3.7
3.6
3.7
17
3.8
Communal services
30.1
31.0
31.5
32.2
33.2
34.0
34.9
35.5
36.4
37.1
Education
18.7
19.2
19.5
19.9
20.5
21.1
21.6
22.1
22.6
23.1
Health
11.4
11.7
12.0
12.3
12.7
13.0
13.2
13.4
13.8
14.1
Consumption
266.8
278.1
286.3
295.3
308.7
323.5
332.3
341.4
348.3
359.8
86
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Table A-11 (continued)
USSR: Consumption in 1982 Established Prices
Billion 1982 rubles
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
Consumer goods
293.9
300.3
298.1
304.5
314.3
316.2
311.9
316.5
Food
177.1
178.5
177.6
181.8
186.4
182.2
169.8
169.7
Animal products
65.9
65.8
65.1
67.0
69.5
72.1
73.7
76.4
Processed foods
19.1
19.6
19.9
20.1
20.3
20.3
21.1
22.4
Basic foods
31.6
32.2
33.5
34.1
34.7
35.0
36.9
36.7
Beverages
60.5
61.0
59.2
60.6
61.9
54.9
38.1
34.2
Soft goods
78.0
80.3
79.7
80.9
83.7
87.1
89.9
91.1
Durables
38.7
41.5
40.8
41.8
44.2
46.9
52.3
55.7
Consumer services
78.8
80.6
82.8
.84.7
87.1
89.5
91.7
95.2
Household services
41.1
42.5:
, 43.6
45.0
46.6
48.2
49.8
52.0
Housing
5.8
5.9
6.1
6.3
6.4
6.6
6.7
6.9
Utilities
5.9
6.1
.6.4
6.6
7.0
7.3
7.6
7.9
Transportation
10.2
10.5
10.7
11.0
11.3
11.6
11.9
12.2
Communications
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.8
3.0
3.1
3.3
3.5
Repair and personal care
12.6
13.2
13.6
14.1
14.7
15.4
16.0
17.1
Recreation
4.0
4.1
4.1
4.2
4.2
4.3
4.3
4.4
Communal services
37.8
38.1
39.2
39.7
40.5
41.3
41.9
43.1
Education
23.6
23.8
24.6
24.8
25.3
25.8
26.4
27.0
Health
14.1
14.3
14.6
14.9
15.2
15.5
15.5
16.2
Consumption
372.7
380.9
380.9
389.3
401.3
405.7
403.7
411.7
87
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16 : CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Table A-12
USSR: Average Annual Growth of Consumption in 1982 Established Prices
Percent
1951-55
1956-60
1961-65
1966-70
1971-75
1976-80
1981:85
1986-87
Consumer goods
6.6
5.9
3.5
6.4
3.9
2.9
1.5
0.0
Food
5.1
5.0
3./
5.3
3.1
1.9
0.6
- 3.5
Animal products
3.1
8.2
1.6
6.0
3.2
1.3
1.8
2.9
5.0
Processed foods
12.1
5.8
5.8
4.2
2.7
3.5
1.2
Basic foods
1.6
1.2
1.6
1.9
0.6
0.8
2.0
/.5
Beverages
12.5
4.6
6.4
7.3
4.7
2.6
-1.9
-21.1
Soft izonds
! n 1
7.5
3.7
8.3
3.7
3.7
2.2
2.3
Durables
19.6
12.3
5.5
10.6
10.7
6.3
3.9
9.0
Consumer services
5./
5.1
6.1
5.1
3.9
2.9
2.6
3.1
Household services
6.1
6.6
6.8
6.3
5.4 ..
3.7
3.2
3.9
Housing
2.7
4.8
3.9
3.0
2.5
2.1
2.6
2.8
Utilities
5.9
6.6
9.4
6.5
6.3
4.7
4.2
4.1
Transportation
12.3
11.2
10.6
9.3
7.3
3.2
2.6
2.7
Communications
8.6
7.3
7.3
8.6
6.4
4.7
3.9
6.2
Repair and personal care
3.9
5.3
6.4
7.3
5.3
4.9 .
4.0
5.6
Recreation
14.1
7.2
4.8
3./
3.9
1.6
1.5
0.8
Communal services
4.6
4.1
5.5
4.1
2.5
2.1
1.8
7.2
Education
3.5
3.3
6.8
4.0
2.5
2.3
1.8
2./
Health
6.3
5.3
3.7
4.3
2.5
1.8
1.8
2.2
Consumption
6.3
5.8
4.0
6.1
3.9
2.9
1.7
0.7
88
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Table A-13
USSR: Consumption Per Capita in 1982 Established Prices
1981 rubles per capita
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
-1958
1959
Consumer goods
394.2
391.6
416.9
448.6
473.4
497.1
514.5
549.6
579.6
589.0
Food
311.0
298.4
319.1
340.3
348.2
366.1
374.8
399.7
420.0
420.1
Animal products
117.1
116.5
116.8
120.0
123.8
125.0
133.0
144.2
161.4
164.8
Processed foods
20.5
26.6
29.0
34.0
27.5
33.3
35.8
36.3
37.3
38.4
Basic foods
120.0
96.3
108.5
112.6
116.8
119.4
115.2
119.9
119.0
117.7
Beverages
53.5
59.1
64.8
73.7
80.1
88.4
90.8
99.3
102.4
99.1
Soft goods
73.0
81.5
84.7
91.4
104.0
108.3
115.3
120.9
128.4
135.4
Durables
10.1
11.6
13.1
16.9
21.2
22.7
24.4
29.0
31.3
33.5
Consumer services
110.2
112.5
115.8
118.5
124.0
130.2
132.8
136.4
141.4
147.2
Household services
41.9
43.5
45.3
46.5
48.8
51.8
53.2
55.3
58.6
62.4 ..
Housing
12.6
12.7
12.8
12.9
13.0
13.2
13.4
13.7
14.2
14.7 '
Utilities
.4.9
5.1
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.8
7.2
Transportation
4.3
4.7
5.1
5.6
6.2
7.1 ,
7.5
8.4
9.3
10.0
Communications
1.8
1.9
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.5
2.6
2.8
2.9
3.1
Repair and personal care
14.1
14.3
14.6
14.9
15.3
15.6
15.4
15.4
16.2
18.0
Recreation
4.2
4.7
5.2
5.3
6.2
7.4
8.1
? 8.5
9./
9.4
Communal services
68.4
69.0
70.5
72.0
75.3
78.5
79.6
81.0
82.9
84.8
Education
43.9
44.3
45.1
45.4
46.7
48.0
48.4
48.8
49.4
50.1
Health
24.4
24.6
25.4
26.6
/8.6
30.5
31.1
32.2
33.4
34.7
Consumption
504.4
504.1
532.7
567.1
597.5
627.3
647,
686.0
721.0
736.2
Population (million persons)
180.1
183.0
186.0
190.0
193.0
196.2
199.7
203.2
206.8
210.5
89
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
?
Table A-13 (continued)
USSR: Consumption Per Capita in 1982 Established Prices
1981 rubles per capita
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
-1968
1969
Consumer goods
.;
607.0
616.0
-632.5
646.1
642.3
668.4
701.4
742.9
785.3
828.0
Food
427.3
433.5
445.8
461.6
451.6
465.0
480.8
504.4
526.9
553.0
Animal products
169.4
169.5
170.2
185.2
165.2
170.3
182.0
192.2
203.7
/14.2
Processed foods
40.5
41.6
43.5
44.8
48.2
49.7
49.8
52.2
53.9
56.3
Basic foods
115.8
114.7
115.3
111.0
114.5
116.2
114.5
116.7
119.4
116.8
Beverages
101.6
107.7
116.8
120.6
123.7
128.8
134.6
143.4
149.9
165.6
Soft goods
142.6
145.3
148.2
146.7
149.8
158.3
170.5
183.8
198.1
211.0
Durables
37.2
37.2
38.6
37.9
40.9
45.0
50.1
54.7
60.3
64.0
Consumer services
153.0
159.2
166.2
173.3
181.6
190.6
198.5
206.6
215.9
224.2
Household services
65.2
68.5
71.9
75:0
79.1
84.1
88.3
93.7
99.1
104.0
Housing
15.3
15.8
16.2
16.5
16.9
17.2
17.5
17.9
18.3
18.6
Utilities
7.5
8.1
8.8
9.5
10.2.
11.0
11.6
12.1
12.8
13.6
Transportation
11.0
12.0
13.4
14.7
15:7
17.0
18.6
20.3
22.1
23.6
Communications
3.2
3.4
3.5
3.7
3.9
4.3
4.7
5.1
5.4
5.8
Repair and personal care
18.5
19.1
19.7
20.4
21.7
23.4
24.8
26.4
28.1
30.0
Recreation
9.6
10.1
10.3
10.1
10.7
11.3
11.2
*11.8
1/.4
12.4
Communal services
87.7
90.7
94.3
98.3
102.4
106.6
110.2
112.9
116.8
120.2
Education
51.6
53.8
57.2
60.3
63.5
66.3
68.8
70.8
73.3
75.4
Health
36.1
36.9
37.0
38.0
38.9
40.2
41.4
42.2
43.6
44.9
Consumption
760.0
775.2
798.7
819.4
823.9
859.0
899.9
949.6
1,001.2
1.052.2
Population (million persons)
214.3
218.1
221.7
775.1
228.1
230.9
233.5
236.0
238.3
240.6
90
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Table A-13 (continued)
USSR: Consumption Per Capita in 1982 Established Prices
1982 rubles per capita
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
-1978
1979
Consumer goods
866.0
895.1
911.0
930.2
964.1
1,001.3
1,019.6
1,041.3
1,049.6
1,075.5
Food
571.3
584.2
585.9
593.7
614.6
633.5
636.4
642.2
641.2
654.1
Animal products
217.1
219.5
219.9
227.1
234.5
241.9
239.7
238.9
241.3
246.1
Processed foods
58.1
58.8
59.1
62.3
63.5
63.2
65.5
67.3
69.1
69.3
Basic foods
121.6
124.8
118.4
122.2
120.2
119.5
116.5
119.1
120.7
119.2
Beverages
174.6
181.1
188.4
182.1
196.4
208.9
214.7
216.9
210.2
719.5
Soft goods
223.9
231.7
235.2
240.2
246.3
255.6
264.8
271.4
276.4
284.6
Durables
70.8
79.2
89.9
96.3
103.3
112.1
118.4
127.8
132.0
136.8
Consumer services
232.7
239.7
246.0
252.0
260.6
268.2
274.9
277.4
283.8
290.3
Household services
108.8
113.4
118.5
123.1
129.0
134.6
139.1
140.2
144.5
149.3
Housing
19.0
19.3
19.6
19.9
20.2
203
20.8
21.0
21.3
21.5
Utilities
14.3
15.1
16.0
16.8
17.7
18.5
19.5
20.1
20.8
21.5
Transportation
25.1
26.7
28.5
29.9
32.0
34.2
36.0
34.6
35.4
36:9
Communications
6.1
6.5
6.9
7.2
7.6
8.0
8.3
8.6
8.9
9.3
Repair and personal care
31.6
32.9
34.4
36.0
37.5
39.0
40.6
41.8
43.8
45.6
Recreation
12.6
12.8
13.2
13.3
14.0
14.5
14.0
14.1
14.3
14.6
Communal services
124.0
126.3
127.4
128.9
131.6
133.6
135.8
137.1
139.3
141.0
Education
76.8
78.4
78.9
79.7
81.3
82.8
84.3
85.3
86.4
87.6
Health
47.1
47.9
48.6
49.2
50.2
50.9
51.5
51.9
52.8
53.4
Consumption
1,098.7
1.134.8
1,157.0
1,182.2
1.224.7
1,269.5
1,294.6
1,318.7
1,333.4
1,365.8
263.4
Population (million persons)
242.8
245.1
247.5
249.8
252.1
254.8
256.7
258.9
261.2
91
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
?
Table A-13 (continued)
USSR: Consumption Per Capita in 1982 Established Prices
1982 rubles per capita
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
- 1987
Consumer goods
1.103.1
1,117.7
1,099.6
1.113.1
1,137.4
1,133.7
1.108.1
1,114.4
Food
664.8
664.4
655.1
664.3
674.8
653.4
603.0
597.5
Animal products
247.2
245.0
240.0
244.7
251.6
258.6
261.7
269.1
Processed foods
71.8
72.8
73.4
73.6
73.6
72.7
75.1
78.8
Basic foods
118.8
119.7
123.4
124.5
125.5
125.4
130.9
129.1
Beverages
226.9
226.8
218.3
221.5
224.1
196.7
135.3
120.3
Soft goods
292.9
298.8
294.1
295.8
302.8
312.2
319.2
320.6
Durables
145.4
154.4
150.4
152.9
159.8
168.1
185.9
196.2
Consumer services
295.9
300.1
305.5
309.7
315.2
320.9
325.9
335.1
Household services
154.2
158.2
160.9
164.5
168.5
172.7
177.0
183.2
Housing
21.7
22.0
22.4
22.9
23.2
23.5
23.9
24.4
Utilities
22.2
22.8
. 23.5
24.3
25.2
26.1
26.9
27.7
Transportation
38.2
39.2
39.6
40.2
40.8
41.5
42.4
43.0
Communications
9.6
9.9
10.1
10.3
10.7
11.1
11.6
12.3
Repair and personal care
47.4
49.0
50.0
.51.7
53.3
55.1
56.8
60.4
Recreation
15.0
15.2
15.3
15.2
15.3
15.5
15.4
15.4
Communal services
141.8
141.9
144.6
145.1
146.7
148.1
148.9
151.9
Education
88.7
88.7
90.8
90.7
91.7
92.7
93.7
95.0
Health
53.1
53.1
53.8
54.4
55.1
55.5
55.2
56.9
Consumption
1,399.1
1,417.7
1,405.1
1,422.8
1,452.6
1.454.5
1,434.0
1,449.5
Population (million persons)
266.4
268.7
271.1
273.6
276.3
278.9
281.5
284.0
92
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Table A-14
USSR: Al,erage Annual Growth of Consumption Per Capita in 1982 Established Prices
Percent
1951-55
1956-60
1961-65
1966-70
. 1971-75
1976-80
1981-85
1986-87
Consumer goods-
4.7
4.1
1.9
5.3
2.9
1.0
0.5
-0.9
Food
3.3
3.1
1.7
4.7
2.1
1.0
-0.3
-4.4
Animal products
1.3
6.3
0.1
5.0
2.2
0.4
0.9
. 2.0
Processed foods
10.2
4.0
4.2
3.2
1.7
/.6
0.3
4.1
Basic foods
-0.1
-0.6
0.1
0.9
-0.3
-0.1
1.1
1.6
Beverages
10.6
2.8
4.9
6.3
3.7
1.7
-2.8
-21.8
Soft goods
8.2
5.7
2.1
7.2
2.7
2.8
1.3
1.3
Durables
17.6
10.4
3.9
9.5
9.6
5.3
2.9
8.1
Consumer services
3.4
3.3
4.5
4.1
2.9
7.0
1.6
1.2
Household services
4.3
4.7
5.2
5.3
4.4
2.8
2.3
3.0
Housing
0.9
3.0
2.4
2.0
1.5
1.2
1.6
1.9
Utilities
4.1
4.7
7.8
5.5
5.2
3.7
3.3
3.1
Transportation
10.4
9.3
9.0
8.2
6.3
2.3
1.7
1.8
5.2
Communications
6.7
5.4
5.7
7.6
5.4
3.8
2.9
Repair and personal care
2.1
3.5
4.8
6.2
4.3
4.0
3.0
4.7
Recreation
11.2
5.3
3.2
2./
2.9
0.7
0.6
-0.1
Communal services
2.8
2.3
4.0
3.1
1.5
1.2
0.9
1.3
Education
1.8
1.5
5.2
3.0
1.5
1.4
0.9
1.3
Health
4.5
3.5
2.2
3.2
1.5
0.9
0.9
1.3
Consumption
4.5
3.9
2.5
5.0
.7.9
2.0
0.8
-0.2
Population
1.7
1.8
1.5
1_0
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.9
Reverse Blank
93
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Appendix B
Soviet GNP in
Established Prices, 1982
This appendix documents the CIA's estimates of
Soviet GNP in established prices in 1982?the base documentation:
year for our estimates of GNP growth. The derivation
of these estimates is described in the notes to the
tables.
The following abbreviated citations are used in the
Tables appear in the following order:
B-1. USSR: Household Incomes, 1982
B-2. USSR: Household Outlays, 1982
B-3. USSR: Public-Sector Incomes, 1982
B-4. USSR: Public-Sector Outlays, 1982
B-5. USSR: GNP by Type of Income, 1982
B-6. USSR: GNP by End Use, 1982
95
Abbreviated Citation Full Citation
GNP 1970
Gosbyudzhet 19?
Narkhoz 19?
Personal Incomes
CIA Research Aid, USSR:
Gross National Product
Accounts, 1970 (A(ER) 75-
76, November 1975)
Gosudarstvennyy byudzhet
SSSR: 19? (Moscow:
Finansy i statistika, 19?)
Narodnoye khozyaystvo
SSSR v 19? g. (Moscow:
Finansy i statistika, 19?)
CIA, USSR: Estimates of
Personal Incomes and
Savings (SOV 89-10035.
April 1989)
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Table B-1
USSR: Household Incomes, 1982
Billion Rubles
I. State wages and salaries
245.021
2. Net income of households from agriculture
61.876
a. Money wage payments by collective farms
21.232
(1) Payments to collective farm members
19.500
(2) Payments to hired workers
1.732
b. Net income from sales of farm products
17.420
c. Net farm income in kind
23.225
(1) Consumption in kind
22.378
(2) Investment in kind
0.847
3. Income of the armed forces
10.100
a. Military pay and allowances
6.590
b. Military subsistence
3.510
4. Other money income currently earned and
statistical discrepancy
14.753
a. Private money income c'urrently earned
7.816
(1) Private earnings in construction
0.277
(2) Private earnings in services
7.539
(a) Housing repair
0.757
(b) Repair and personal care
4.019
(c) Room rentals
1.247
(d) Education
1.092
(e) Health
0.424
b. Unidentified money income and statistical
discrepancy
6.937
5. Imputed net rent
2.199
6. Imputed value of owner-supplied construction
services
0.554
7. Total income currently earned
334.503
8. Transfer receipts
58.185
a. Pensions and allowances
49.700
b. Stipends
2.500
c. interest payments to households
5.671
d. Net new bank loans to households
-0.271
e. Profits distributed to consumer cooperative
members
0.043
9. Total income
392.688
Sources for Table B-1
1. State wages and salaries are from Narkhoz 1983,
pp. 385, 393.
2. Net income of households from agriculture
a. Money wage payments by collective farms
(1) Payments to collective farm members are from
Vestnik statistiki (No. 7, 1986): p. 54.
(2) Payments to hired workers. As in GNP 1970, p. 23,
it is assumed that 83.3 percent of the reported total
number of hired workers in agriculture (1.4 million-
Narkhoz 1982, p. 287) worked on collective farms and
that they were paid at the implicit annual wage rate
for collective farmers (1485 rubles-Narkhoz 1985,
p. 277, and Vestnik statistiki (No. 7, 1986): p. 54).
b. Net income from sales of farm products is from
Personal Incomes, p. 11.
c. Net farm income in kind
(1) Consumption in kind is derived from estimates in
worksheets, as described in GNP 1970, appendix A.
(2) Investment in kind, the value of net additions to
private livestock inventories, is estimated on the basis
of changes in the number of cattle, hogs, sheep and
goats, and poultry and the estimated average realized
price per head for each animal. The calculation is
presented below.
Valuation of Net Additions to Private-
Sector Livestock Inventories, 1982
Number of Animals Net Additions to
Million Head Livestock Inventories
End 1981 End 1982 Million Rubles Billion
Head Per Head Rubles
Cattle
23.4
24.2
0.8
567
0.454
Hogs
14.2
15.8
1.6
189
0.302
Sheep and
goats
30.7
31.9
1.2
38
0.046
Poultry
325.9
337.1
11.3
4
0.045
Total
0.847
, 96
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All quantity data are from Narkhoz 1982, p. 241, and
Narkhoz 1981, p. 271, except poultry, which are from
Narkhoz 1985, pp. 239-241. Poultry inventories are
allocated between the public and private sectors on
the basis of their shares in egg production.
3. Income of the armed forces
a. Military pay and allowances are a CIA estimate.
b. Military subsistence is a CIA estimate.
4. Other money income currently earned and statisti-
cal discrepancy
a. Private money income currently earned
(1) Private earnings in construction (0.277 billion
rubles) are based on total expenditures for construc-
tion of private housing (1.736 billion rubles?sum of
data for republics from Narkhoz 1981, p. 345) and
assumptions about the distribution of those
expenditures.
Private housing is constructed by state organizations
and by private groups. The value of state-provided
construction and repair of private housing in 1982 is
given as 0.605 billion rubles in Narkhoz 1982, p. 452;
that value (assumed to be in current prices) is doubled
to take account of materials. The new value is be-
lieved to include sales to enterprises, as do the report-
ed sales of other state-provided services. They proba-
bly represent repairs done for enterprises without
their own repair crews. Sales to enterprises are esti-
mated at 42 percent of the state-provided services
(0.508 billion rubles) on the basis of notional extrapo-
lation of data published in V.I. Dmitriyev, Metodolo-
gicheskiye osnovy prognozirovaniya sprosa na byto-
vyye uslugi (Moscow: Legkaya industriya, 1975),
p.98. The remainder (0.702 billion rubles) are sales to
households. It is arbitrarily assumed that these sales
are divided equally between new construction and
repair services. The resulting distribution is as follows:
97
Billion Rubles
Total sales
1.210
Sales to enterprises
0.508
Sales to households
0.702
Housing repair
0.351
New construction
0.351
Privately provided construction of private housing is
calculated as total construction of such housing (1.736
billion rubles) less state-provided construction (0.351
billion rubles), or 1.385 billion rubles. Of this amount,
60 percent is assumed to be labor payments (0.831
billion rubles) and 40 percent materials (0.554 billion
rubles). The labor payments are further assumed to be
one-third hired labor (0.277 billion rubles) and two-
thirds owner-supplied construction services (0.554 bil-
lion rubles).
(2) Private earnings in services
(a) Private housing repair earnings (0.757 billion
rubles) are estimated as total expenditures on housing
repair less purchases of state-provided services and of
materials used in privately provided repair services
Household expenditures for housing repair. are esti-
mated at 1.883 billion rubles in the derivation of table
B-2, item 2, a. Purchases from state enterprises are
estimated above in item 4, a, (1) at 0.351 billion
rubles, which implies that purchases of privately
supplied housing repair services are 1.532 billion
rubles. Of this amount, expenditures for materials are
estimated below at 0.775 billion rubles.
The material expenditures of 0.775 billion rubles are
determined as total retail sales of construction materi-
als to households (2.031 billion rubles, derived in table
B-2, item 1, a, as in GNP 1970, p. 39) less other uses
of those materials. Construction materials purchased
by households are assumed to be used for privately
provided housing construction and for state-provided
repair and construction of private housing, as well as
for privately provided housing repair. The materials
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used in privately provided housing construction are
estimated above in item 4, a, (1) at 0.554 billion
rubles. It is assumed that, as with other services
included in Soviet retail trade statistics, the entire
value of state-provided housing construction and re-
pair services (net of sales to enterprises) is included in
the listed purchases of construction materials. The
residual retail sales of construction materials to
households are 0.775 billion rubles:
Billion
Rubles
Total retail sales of construction materials to house-
holds
Less:
2.031
(e) Private health earnings (0.424 billion rubles) are
equal to household expenditures for private health
services, which are assumed to be 5 percent of the
state wage bill for health (excluding physical culture,
from ibid.).
b. Unidentified money income and statistical discrep-
ancy is the difference between total income (item 9
below) and the sum of items 1; 2; 3; 4, a; 5; 6; and 8.
5. Imputed net rent is from the derivation of table
B-2, item 2, a, (1).
6. Imputed value of owner-supplied construction ser-
vices is from the derivation of item 4, a, (1) above.
Materials used in privately provided new housing 0.554
construction
Materials used in state?provided repair and construc- 0.702
tion of private housing
Equals:
Materials used in privately provided housing repair
0.775
(b) Private repair and personal care earnings (4.019
? billion rubles) are estimated at 90 percent of house-
hold expenditures on these services. Expenditures
(4.466 billion rubles) are obtained by deducting expen-
ditures on housing construction and repair from pri-
vate purveyors (estimated above) from total privately
provided "everyday" services (5.500 billion rubles,
based on an estimated "5-6 billion rubles every year"
cited in lzvestiya, 19 August 1985).
(c) Private room rental earnings (1.247 billion rubles)
are assumed to have risen during 1971-82 at the same
rate as the leisure component of the GNP index for
recreation. The 1970 value (0.484 billion rubles) is
from GNP 1970, p. 42.
(d) Private education earnings (1.092 billion' rubles)
are equal to household expenditures for private educa-
tional services, which are assumed to be 7 percent of
the state wage bill for education (from Narkhoz 1983,
pp. 385-386, 393-394).
7. Total income currently earned is the sum of items 1
through 6.
8. Transfer receipts
a. Pensions and allowances are from Narkhoz 1985,
p. 412.
b. Stipends are from ibid.
c. Interest income is the sum of interest on savings
deposits (3.741 billion rubles?calculated at 2.2 per-
cent of average annual,deposits, from Narkhoz 1984,
p. 462) and interest on state loans (1.930 billion
rubles?from Personal Incomes, p. 11).
d. Net new bank loans to households are from
Narkhoz 1982, p. 526.
e. Profits distributed to consumer cooperative mem-
bers are from Personal Incomes, p. 11.
9. Total income is equal to total outlays from table
B-2, item 8.
?98
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Table B-2
USSR: Household Outlays, 1982
Billion Rubles
I. Retail sales of goods for consumption 272.218
?a. State, cooperative, and commission sales 264.392
(1) Food 145.273
(2) Soft goods 78.335
Sources for Table B-2
I. Retail sales of goods for consumption
a. State, cooperative, and commission sales
Total sales to households of goods for consumption are
estimated in the following tabulation:
Billion Rubles
(3) Durables 40.784 Total Food Soft Dura- Other
Goods bles
b. Collective farm ex-village market sales 7.826
Total state 295.653 155 149 82.104 46.684 11.716
(I) Food 7.590 and cooper-
(2) Soft goods 0.236 ative retail
2. Consumer services 46.985 sales, in-
cluding
a.. Housing 6.080 commission
01 Gross rent 4.913 sales*
(2) Repair 1.167 Less:
b. Other services 40.905 Sales to in- 14.783 9.357 2.167 2.581 0.677
(1) Utilities 6.372 stitutions 1
(2) Transportation ? . 10.745 Producer 0.967 - - - 0.967
(3) Communications - 2.725 goods soldto farm
(4) Repair and personal care 13.554 households'
(5) Recreation 3.989 Construe- 2.031 - _ 2.031
(6) Education 2.401 tion materi-
als sold to
(7) Health 0.674 households ?
(8) Other 0.445 Kerosene' 0.043 0.043 _
3. Consumption in kind
a. Farm consumption in kind
25.888
22.378
Film rent-
als '
0.237 0.237
(I) Food 22.314 Commission 5.000 - 1.000 4.000
(2) Soft goods 0.064 sales and
sales to
b. Military subsistence 3.510 rental agen-
(1) Food 2.410 cies'
(2) Soft goods 1.100 Business 0.518 0.518
4. Total outlays for consumption 345.092 travel ex-
penditures'
5. Investment
2.583
a. Private housing construction 1.736
b. Farm investment in kind 0.847
6. Total outlays for consumption and investment 347.675
7. Transfer outlays
Services in- 7.683
eluded in
retail sales '
5.762
1.921
Plus:?
45.013 Unidenti- 5.203 2.601 7.804
a. Net savings of households
b. Direct taxes
13.329 fled retail
sales"'
26.638
c. Other payments to the state 5.046
8. Total outlays 392.688
99
Equals:
Sales to .264.392 145.273 78.335 40.784
households
of goods for
consump-
tion
? Total state and cooperative retail sales distributed by category of
goods are given in Narkhoz 1984, pp. 483-485. Total sales of food
include the entire food category plus sales of tobacco products.
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Total identified sales of soft goods are derived from the Narkho:
data as follows:
Billion Rubles
Total retail sales of soft goods
82.104
Cloth
7.650
Clothing
28.581
Knitwear
14.652
Shoes
13.168
Laundry soap
0.206
Synthetic cletiaiag materials
0.910
Toilet soap and perfumes
3.458
Haberdashery
7.881
Matches
0.169,
Kerosene
0.043.
Notebooks and paper
1.650
Publications
3.736
Total identified sales of durables are derived from the Narkhoz
data as follows:
Total retail sales of durables
Billion Rubles
46.684
Furniture, carpets, and metal beds
12.060
Metal dishes
Glass dishes
Sporting goods
Radio goods
1.874
2.287
0.923
5.490
Musical instruments
0.375
Toys
1.482
Bicycles and motorbikes
1.946
Watches.
1.250
Jewelry
3.509
Electrical goods
3.508
Sewing machines
0.174
Automobiles
10.693
Other household goods
1.113
Other and unidentified retail sales include window glass (0.049
billion rubles): lumber, cement, and other construction materials
(2.528 billion rubles): and an unidentified residual (9.139 billion
rubles).
'Sales to institutions are estimated at 5.0 percent of total retail
trade-the share given in M.I. Bakanov, Ekonomicheskiy analiz v
torgov1e (Moscow: Ekonomika, 1983), p. 51. The total is distributed
among groups of goods on the basis of their shares estimated for
1970 (from GNP 1970, pp. 61-62). These-shares are 63.30 percent
for food, 14.66 percent for soft goods, 17.46 percent for durables..
and 4.58 percent for other goods.
' Producer goods sold to farm households are estimated at 5.55
percent (the share in 1970) of household income from sales of farm
products. The latter are estimated at 17.420 billion rubles in table
B-1, item 2, b.
' Retail sales of construction materials (from Narkho: 1984, pp.
484-485) are reduced by the share sold to institutions i21.2 percent.
as in 1970).
' Retail sales of kerosene are from ,Varkhoz 1984. pp. 484-485.
? Film rentals are estimated by increasing the 1970 value by 21.6
percent. the increase in production of films during 1971-82 (Nar-
khoz 1984. p. 546).
'Commission sales are estimated at 5.000 billion rubles, allocated
roughly 80 percent to durables and 20 percent to soft goods. The
total and supporting information on distribution are given in AS.
Khrenov, Regional noye planirovaniye ro:nichnogo tovarooborota
(Moscow: Ekonomika, 1985), pp. 123-127.
' Business travel expenditures are arbitrarily estimated at 2 percent
of total restaurant sales of 25.909 billion rubles (Norkho: 1984, p.
478).
'Services to be deducted are estimated below from data in :Varicho:
1985. p. 492:
Billion Rubles
Total productive services
9.688
Shoe repair
0.805
Repair and tailoring of clothing
3.648
Processing expenses
1.814
Materials
1.824
Repair and tailoring of knitwear
0.758
Processing expenses
0.379
Materials
0.379
Repair of durables
2.404
Processing expenses
1.202
Materials
1.202
Furniture repair
0.330
Dry cleaning
0.198
Laundries
0.391
Photo services
0.379
Other productive services
0.775
Services sold to enterprises, estimated at 20.7 percent of the above
total, must be deducted because they are not counted in retail trade
data. (In 1982, such sales to enterprises made up 19.9 percent of
total sales of services in Estonia, according to Voprosy razvitiya
obsluzhivanlya na.seleniya (Tallinn: Akademiya nauk Estonskoy
SSR, 1985), p. 27.) The revised total-7.683 billion rubles-is
allocated 75 percent to soft goods and 25 percent to durables.
'? Unidentified retail sales are allocated two-thirds to soft goods and
one-third to durables.
100
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b. Collective farm ex-village market sales
Total purchases by households and enterprises in
collective farm markets are reported at 8.600 billion
rubles in Narkhoz 1984, p. 472. Purchases by enter-
prises and state institutions in these markets are
estimated at 0.744 billion rubles (9 percent of the
total?their share in 1970) and subtracted from the
total to obtain purchases by the population. Those
purchases-7.826 billion rubles?are then allocated
to food and soft goods, the latter estimated as a
residual. Food purchases by households and enter-
prises combined (8.331 billion rubles) are derived on
thr6iiis of the percentage distribution of food pur-
chases between state trade and collective farm mar-
kets (Narkhoz 1984, pp. 476, 483). Enterprise pur-
chases of food (estimated at 0.741 billion rubles, or
95.7 percent of their total collective farm market
purchases?the share used for 1970) are subtracted
from the combined value. Household purchases of
food therefore are 7.590 billion rubles and purchases
of soft goods are 0.236 billion rubles.
2. Consumer services
a. Housing
The components of this item are derived below and
regrouped here to conform more closely with the
accounting procedures of the United States and the
United Nations. According to those procedures, main-
? tenance expenditures by owner-occupiers are part of
gross rent, while maintenance expenditures by tenants
? are final expenditures but not part of gross rent.
Regrouped expenditures on housing consist of:
Billion Rubles
Total housing expenditures 6.080
Gross rent 4.913
Cash rent for urban public housing 1.791
Charges paid by members of housing coop- 0.207
eratives for maintenance
Imputed net rent on urban private and rural 2.199
housing
Repair expenditures on urban private and 0.716
rural housing
Repair expenditures by tenants of public 1.167
housing
101
(1) Cash rent for urban public housing. Cash rent
(1.791 billion rubles) is the product of the midyear
stock of urban public housing (1.167 billion square
meters of living space) and an average rental rate of
1.535 rubles per square meter per year. The midyear
stock is obtained from end-of-year stock data (Nar-
khoz 1985, p. 426), converted from useful space to
living space with a coefficient of two- thirds. The
average rental rate is slightly higher than the 1.5
rubles used for 1976 in the CIA's international com-
parison of consumption to allow for some upgrading of
quality. (Sec Gertrude E. Schroeder and Imogene
Edwards, Consumption in the USSR: An Internation-
al Comparison, prepared for Joint Economic Commit-
tee, Congress of the United States (Washington: US
Government Printing Office, 1981), p. 104.)
(2) Charges paid by members of housing cooperatives
for maintenance. These charges (0.207 billion rubles)
are the product of the midyear stock of housing (0.080
billion square meters of living space) and a charge of
2.59 rubles per square meter, as in 1970. The midyear
stock is obtained by adding the increase during 1971-
82 (Narkhoz 1985, p. 420) to the stock estimated for
1970.
(3) Imputed net rent on urban private and rural
housing. This value (2.199 billion rubles) is the prod-
uct of the midyear stock of such housing (1.433 billion
square meters of living space) and the average rental
rate of state housing (1.535 rubles per square meter,
as above). The midyear stock of urban private housing
is estimated at 0.372 billion square meters and the
rural housing stock is estimated at 1.061 billion
square meters of living space (Narkhoz 1985, p. 426).
Conversion rates from total space to living space are
those used for 1970.
(4) Repair expenditures. Repair expenditures by ten-
ants of urban public housing are estimated at 1.167
billion rubles, using anannual outlay of 1 ruble per
square meter of living space from a Soviet source
citing it as applicable to 1977 (Voprosy ekonomiki
No. 7, 1979): p. 96). Repair expenditures on urban
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private and rural housing are estimated at 0.716
billion rubles, using an annual outlay of 0.5 rubles per
square meter, and added to imputed net rent to obtain
gross rent. ,
b. Other services
(1) Utilities. Expenditures are calculated by multiply-
ing their 1970 value by the utilities index from our
estimates of GNP by end use in 1970 established
prices. No price changes are known to have occurred
for any of these utilities since 1970.
(2) Transportation. Outlays are calculated by multi-
plying their 1970 value by the GNP end-use index for
passenger transportation in 1970 prices and adding an
estimated price increase of 12.3 percent. That in-
crease allows for a reported doubling of taxi fares in
1977, a reported 20 percent increase in air fares in
1977, and an assumed rise of 20 percent in fares for
sea and river transportation (the actual size was not
announced).
(3) Communications. Expenditures are calculated by
multiplying their 1975 value by the GNP end-use
'index for communications in 1970 prices. No price
changes are known to have occurred.
(4) Repair and personal care. Total expenditures
(13.554 billion rubles) are the sum of state-supplied
services (9.089 billion rubles), derived in the table
below, and privately supplied services (4.466 billion
rubles), estimated in the derivation of table B-1,
item 4, a, (2), (b).
Total reported sales of everyday services (from
Narkhoz 1985, p. 492)
Billion Rubles
8.779
Less:
Enterprise purchases of services (25 percent) 2.195
58 percent of sales of housing construction 0.351
and repair services
Phu:
93.6 percent of materials used in tailoring and 1.707
repair of clothing
93.6 percent of materials used in repair of 0.355
knitwear _
66 percent of materials used in repair of cars 0.793
and appliances
Equals:
Sales of everyday services to households
9.089
(5) Recreation. Using data on the total value and
distribution of "paid services to the population" in
1985 (from Narkhoz 1985, p. 488), the value of
recreation expenditures in 1982 is estimated as
follows:
Billion Rubles
State-provided recreation services
4.342
Entertainment
1.740
Resorts and tourism
2.472
Physical culture
0.130
Less:
State subsidy
?
1.600
Plus:
Private room rentals
1.247
Equals:
Household outlays for recreation
3.989
The 1985 values for entertainment and for resorts and
tourism are moved back to 1982 using the respective
components of the GNP recreation index. The 1985
value for physical culture is moved back using the
change in budget expenditures (Gosbyudzhet 1981-
85, p. 34). The subsidy to recreation is estimated in
the derivation of table B-3, item 4. It is probable that
this subsidy is included in the Narkhoz data on paid
services (see Planovoye khozyaystvo (No. 6, 1987): pp.
115-116). Private room rentals are from table B-1,
item 4, a, (2), (c).
(6) Education. Household outlays consist of payments
for private services (estimated in table B-1, item 4, a,
(2), (d) at 1.092 billion rubles) and fees paid for public
education, mainly by parents of children in kindergar-
ten (1.309 billion rubles). The latter figure is estimat-
ed from a value including nursery fees (1.350 billion
rubles, from Vestnik statistiki (No. 1, 1984): p. 75),
less payments for nursery care by parents and other
sources (0.041 billion rubles, from Gosbyudzhet
1981-85, p. 61).
(7) Health. Household outlays are the sum of pay-
ments for private services (estimated in table B-1,
item 4, a, (2), (e) at 0.424 billion rubles) and fees paid
for care of children in nurseries and in fee-for-service
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clinics. The latter is arbitrarily estimated at 0.250
billion* rubles. (A 1985 value of 0.269 billion rubles
can be estimated from the data on paid services used
in the derivation of item 2, b, (5) above.)
(8) Other services. This new category includes all
consumer services not explicitly covered in items 2, b,
(1)-(7) above. The estimate (0.445 billion rubles) is
derived from a 1985 value based on the paid services
data cited above; that value is moved back to 1982 by
the GNP index of consumption of all household
services.
3. Consumption in kind
a. Farm consumption in kind is from table B-1, item
2, c, (1).
(1) Food consumption is the difference between total
consumption and soft goods consumption.
(2) Soft goods consumption consists of wool consump-
tion, derived from estimates in worksheets, as de-
scribed in GNP 1970, appendix A.
b. Military subsistence is from table B-1, item 3, b.
The breakdown into food and soft goods is based on
CIA estimates.
4. Total outlays for consumption are the sum of items
1,2, and 3.
5. Investment
a. Private housing construction is from Narkhoz
1982, p. 345 (the sum of data for republics).
b. Farm investment in kind is from table B-1, item 2,
c, (2).
6. Total outlays for consumption and investment are
the sum of items 4 and S.
7. Transfer outlays
a. Net savings (13.329 billion rubles) are the sum of
(1) the increment in savings deposits (8.619 billion
rubles, calculated from end-of-year totals in Narkhoz
103
1982, p. 414, and Narkhoz 1981, p. 450), (2) total
state loans (1.000 billion rubles, from Narkhoz 1983,
p. 547), and (3) net insurance premia (estimated at
3.710 billion rubles in Personal Incomes, p. 11).
b. Direct taxes are from Gosbyudzhet 198145, p. 5.
c. Other payments to the state (5.046 billion rubles)
are the sum of estimates derived below of (1) trade
union and other dues (4.108 billion rubles), (2) net
lottery ticket purchases (0.343 billion rubles), (3) taxes
on land and buildings owned by individuals and
cooperatives (0.254 billion rubles), (4) collective farm
market fees paid by households (0.050 billion rubles),
and (5) other budget revenue from the population
(0.292 billion rubles).
Dues arc estimated as the sum of trade union dues
(2.791 billion rubles), Communist Party dues (0.720
billion rubles), and other dues (0.597 billion rubles).
Union and party dues are estimated in Personal
Incomes, p. 13; other dues are assumed to have risen
at the same rate as the sum of union and party dues
during 1971-82. Net lottery ticket purchases are
derived as the difference between "state internal prize
loans and money-goods lotteries" (1.343 billion rubles,
from Gosbyudzhet 1981-85, p. 5) and state loans
(1.000 billion rubles, from Narkhoz 1983, p. 547).
Taxes on land and buildings owned by individuals and
cooperatives are given in Gosbyudzhet 1981-85, p. 65.
Collective farm market fees paid by households arc
from GNP 1970, pp. 23-24 (assumed to be un-
changed). Other budget revenue from the population
is derived as the difference between total budget
revenue from the population (28.577 billion rubles,
from Gosbyudzhet 1981-85, p. 52) and the sum of
(1) direct taxes from the population (26.638 billion
rubles, from ibid.), (2) collective farm market fees paid
by households (0.050 billion rubles, from above),
(3) taxes on land and buildings owned by individuals
and cooperatives (0.254 billion rubles, from above),
and (4) lottery purchases and loans from the popula-
tion (1.343 billion rubles, from above).
8. Total outlays are the sum of items 6 and 7.
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Table B-3
USSR: Public-Sector Incomes, 1982
Billion Rubles
1. Net income retained by organizations
17.032
a. Retained income of collective farms
-2.371
b. Retained profits of state enterprises
17.482
c. Retained profits of consumer cooperatives
1.049
d. Retained profits of other organizations
0.871
2. Charges to economic enterprises for special
funds
36.002
a. Social insurance and social security
23.947
.b. Education
0.758
c. Research ,
6.590
d. Social-cultural measures and sports activities
0.300
e. Militarized guards
2.043
f. Support for administration of higher echelons
2.364
3. Taxes and other payments to the budget
290.043
a. Tax on income of collective farms
0.756
b. Tax on income of consumer cooperatives
0.749
c. Tax on income of other organizations
0.373
d. Deductions from profits of state enterprises
100.503
e. Turnover tax
107.864
f. Miscellaneous charges
79.798
4. Allowances for subsidized loses n.e.c.
-54.526
S. Consolidated total charges against current
product, net of depreciation
288.551
6. Depreciation
90.68$
7. Consolidated total charges against current
product
379.236
8. Transfer receipts
45.013
a. Net savings of households
13.329
b. Direct taxes
26.638
c. Other payments to the state
5.046
9. Consolidated net income
424.249
Sources for Table B-3
1. Net income retained by organizations
a. Retained income of collective farms is calculated as
follows from estimates in worksheets:
Billion Rubles
Gross income 21.788
Less:
Payments to labor 21.780
Social security and insurance 1.598
Equals:
Net income (loss) -1.590
Less:
Income taxes 0.756
Other taxes 0.02$
Evan
Retained income (loss) -2.371
b. Retained profits of state enterprises (17.482 billion
rubles) equal total profits (131.607 billion rubles-
Narkhoz 1983, p. 536) less profits taxes (102.358
billion rubles--Gosbyudzhet 1981-85, p. 5) and less
bonuses paid from profits. The latter (11.767 billion
rubles) are calculated as follows (as in GNP 1970,
p. 45):
Billion Rubles, Except Percent
Value of
Fund
Bonus
Share
(Percent)
Value of
Bonuses
"Reform" incentive funds
26.985
42.5
11.467
Fund for victory in socialist
competion
0.342
65.0
0.222
Fund for consumer goods from
waste
0.260
30.0
0.078
Total
11.767
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The values of the funds from which bonuses are paid
are from Narkhoz 1985, p. 556. The shares of bonuses
in these funds are from Narkhoz 1985, p. 557, for
reform incentive funds (bonuses paid from the materi-
al incentive fund as a share of total reform incentive
funds in industry) and from GNP 1970, p. 45, for the
other two funds.
c. Retained profits of consumer cooperatives (1.049
billion rubles) are the difference between net profits
(2.139 billion rubles?Narkhoz 1985, p. 536) and the
sum of (1) income taxes (0.749 billion rubles-35
percent of net profits), and (2) premia.paid to employ-
ees (0.341 billion rubles?taken at one-half of the
value given in Narkhoz 1985, p. 555).
d. Retained profits of other organizations. Income
taxes paid by other organizations (0.373 billion rubles)
are equal to the difference between total income taxes
paid by consumer cooperatives and social organiza-
tions (1.122 billion rubles--Gosbyudzhet 1981-85,
p. 5) and taxes paid by consumer cooperatives only
(0.749 billion rubles?ibid.). Since the tax is levied at
25 to 35 percent of the total income of these organiza-
tions (V.V. Lavrov, L.P. Pavlova, and K.N. Plotnikov,
Gosudarstvennyy byudzhet (Moscow: Finansy i statis-
tika, 1981), p. 139), that income is 1.243 billion rubles
(30 percent tax rate assumed) and retained income is
0.871 billion rubles.
2. Charges to economic enterprises for special funds
a. Social insurance and social security. These charges
(23.947 billion rubles) are the sum of budget receipts
from such taxes (22.349 billion rubles, from Gos-
byudzhet 1981-85, p. 5) and contributions of collective
farms to centralized social security and insurance
funds (1.598 billion rubles, calculated from estimates
in worksheets).
b. Education. These charges (0.758 billion rubles) are
estimated by raising the value for 1970 (0.400 billion
rubles) by the increase in budget expenditures on
"preparation of cadres" (Narkhoz 1983, p. 550).
c. Research. These charges (6.590 billion rubles) are
estimated at half the difference between total outlays
on science (24.900 billion rubles?Narkhoz 1985, p.
561) and budget outlays (11.720 billion rubles?
Gosbyudzhet 1981-85, p. 15).
d. Social-cultural measures and sport activities. These
charges (0.300 billion rubles) are estimated at 0.15
percent of the total state wage bill less wages in
education, health, government administrative ser-
vices, and part of science (the latter taken at half of
budget outlays on science net of investment).
c. Militarized guards. These charges (2.043 billion
rubles) are estimated at half the value of current
outlays on civilian police, from table B-4, item 2, d,
(3).
f. Support for administration of higher echelons.
These charges (2.364 billion rubles) are estimated at
36.5 percent of outlays on state administration. The
share represents an increase over that estimated for
1970 (30.8 percent) to allow for a rising share in total
employment of groups of employees that are believed
to be financed by charges to costs. Outlays on state
administration are assumed to be 91.5 percent (the
share used for 1970) of outlays on state administration
and administration of social organizations (from table
B-4, item 2, c).
3. Taxes and other payments to the budget
a. Taxes on income of collective farms are derived in
item 1, a above.
b. Taxes on income of consumer cooperatives are
derived in item I, c above.
c. Taxes on income of other organizations are derived
in item 1, d above.
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d. Deductions from profits of state enterprises. Re-
ported deductions from profits (102.358 billion rubles,
from Gosbyudzhet 1981-85, p. 5) are reduced by one-
-half-of net insurance premia paid by households
(1.855 billion rubles, from the derivation of table B-2,
item 7, a). This deduction is made to avoid double-
counting the part of profits of the state insurance
agency that goes to the state budget.
e. Turnover tax. Net turnover tax is given as 100.602
billion rubles in Gosbyudzhet 1981-85, p. 5. Gross
turnover tax is estimated at 107.864 billion rubles on
the assumption that the net tax is 93.27 percent of the
gross tax, the average share that prevailed in 1971-75,
the last time such data were reported (in Gosbyudzhet
1971-75, p. 14).
f. Miscellaneous charges. First, a "gross" budget
residual is calculated from data reported in Gos-
byudzhet 1981-85,P. 5:
Billion Rubles
Total income from the socialist sector 324.456
Less:
Turnover taxes 100.602
Payments of state enterprises and other eco- 102.358
nomic organizations from profits
Income taxes from kolkhozes, consumer coop- 1.878
eratives, and social organizations
Social insurance
22.349
Equals:
"Gross" residual
97.270
Several other income items that are reported or can be
estimated with reasonable accuracy reduce this resid-
ual substantially:
Billion Rubles
Residual
97.270
Less
Forestry income'
Local fees from enterprises
Rental income'
Income from the reduction of administrative
expenses'
0.797
0.562
0.034
1.100
Republic budget surplus
4.758
Increase in the supply of money
1.400
Parents' fees for kindergartens and nurseries'
1.350
Price markups on radio and television sets '
0.444
Surcharges on spare parts for agricultural
machinery'
1.000
Income from foreign trade '?
65.298
Geological prospecting charges "
3.000
Water usage fee"
0.500
Population-paid fees for passes to resorts"
0.640
Amortization deductions"
8.539
Equals:
Revised residual
7.847
Gosbyudzhet 1981-85, p. 5.
Total local taxes and fees (1.159 billion rubles, from ibid., p. 65)
less those paid by the population (0.597 billion rubles, from the
derivation of table B-2, item 7, c).
' Gosbyudzhet 1981-85, p. 65.
'Plan figure, from Finansy SSSR (No. I. 1982): p. 16.
' Gosbyudzhet 1981-85, p. 40.
Estimate based on the 1971-82 increase in the population's
disposable money income (from Personal Incomes, p. 11) less the
addition to savings (from Narkhoz 1982, p. 414).
' Vestnik statistiki (No. 1, 1984): p. 75.
'Estimate from Jeanine Braithwaite. "The 1982 Seventeen Sector
Input-Output Table for the Soviet Union" (Center for International
Research, Soviet Branch Research Note, June 1987).
Ibid.
'' Ibid.
" Ibid.
Estimate based on information in Planovoye khozyaystvo (No. 1,
1983): p. 124.
" These fees appear to be treated as budget income (see V.S.
Pavlov, Gosudarstvennyy byudzhet (Moscow: Finansy i statistika.
1985), p. 287). They are estimated at 40 percent of the subsidy to
recreation (1.600 billion rubles, from the derivation of item 4
below).
" New evidence indicates that a significant share of amortization
deductions for replacement goes into the state budget. One source
gives the share at about 17 percent (V.I. Bukato and M.A. Pesselya,
Finansovo-kreditnyye problemy intensifikatsii kapitarnogo stroi-
terstva (Moscow: Finansy i statistika, 1987), p. 136). Another
source states that "the bulk" of amortization deductions in the
trade sector goes into the budget (V.P. Boyken, Rezhim ekonomii v
torgovle (Moscow: Ekonomika, 1986i, p. 39). Amortization deduc-
tions are given in Narkhoz 1985, p. 558.
The revised residual may include income from such
sources as customs duties, gross receipts of budget
organizations, miscellaneous levies and nontax reve-
nues, unspent budget allocations, fines, deductions for
the road economy, and bank loans to the budget equal
to the increase in savings deposits of the population.
In the absence of information on the content of the
revised residual, we assume that 90 percent (7.062
billion rubles) represents current income.
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Total miscellaneous charges are then computed as the
unidentified current income just derived plus those
items enumerated in the derivation of the residual
that represent current income not elsewhere included
in the GNP accounts:
Billion Rubles
90 percent of revised budget income residual 7.062
Plus:
Forestry income
Local fees from enterprises
Rental income
0.797
0.562
0.034
Income from the reduction oi administrative 1.100
expenses
Price markups on radio and television sets 0.444.
Surcharges on spare parts for agricultural
machinery
Income from foreign trade
Geological prcispecting charges
Water usage fee
Equals:
Miscellaneous charges
1.000
65.298
3.000
0.500
79.798
4. Allowances for subsidized losses n.e.c.
These consist of the following subsidies:
Billion Rubles
Total subsidies
54.526
Price differences on purchases of agricultural 29.900
products by industry
Price differences on purchases of industrial 8.200
products by agriculture
Payments from gross turnover taxes
Payments from the budget to cover price
reductions in retail trade
7.262
0.700
Housing 4.847
Budget allocations to the press
Art and radio broadcasting
Recreation
0.187
1.830
1.600
107
The price differences on purchases of agricultural
products by industry are given in Finansy SSSR (No.
4, 1985): p. 5. Of these, 1.700 billion rubles reflect
subsidies on potatoes and vegetables sold in retail
trade, according to V.N. Semenov, Prodovestvennaya
programma ifinansy (Moscow: Finansy i statistika,
1985), p. 57. The price differences on purchases of
industrial products by agriculture are given in Seme-
nov, p. 113. Payments from gross turnover taxes are
the difference between gross and net turnover taxes
(from item 3, e above). Subsidies to retail trade are
estimated as the average for 1974-75 given in Finansy
SSSR (No. 7, 1976): p. 8. No new data were found.
The subsidy to housing is estimated at 61.35 percent
(as in 1970) of total state outlays on housing mainte-
nance, including depreciation charged to social con-
sumption funds (7.900 billion rubles?Narkhoz 1985,
p. 412). Budget outlays on the press and On art and
radio broadcasting are given in Narkhoz 1983, p. 550.
The subsidy to recreation is from Narkhoz 1985, p.
412 (calculated as the difference between total outlays
on "social security and social insurance" and the sum
of "pensions" and "aid").
5. Consolidated total charges against product, net of
depreciation, are the sum of items 1 through 4.
6. Depreciation
This is the sum of reported amortization charges by
state enterprises (83.931 billion rubles?Narkhoz
1985, p. 558) and by collective farms (6.754 billion
rubles?from estimates in worksheets.)
7. Consolidated charges against current product are
the sum of items 5 and 6.
8. Transfer receipts are from table B-2, item 7.
9. Consolidated net income is the sum of items 7 and 8.
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Table B-4
USSR: Public-Sector Outlays, 1982
Billion Rubles
I. Communal services
36.284
a. Education
22.218
b. Health
13.919
C. Physical culture
0.147
2. Government administrative services
19.098
a. General agricultural programs
2.741
b. Forestry
1.050
c. State administration and adniinistration of
social organizations
7.080
d. Municipal and related services
? 8.227
(1) Culture
2.661
(2) Municipal services
1.481
(3) Civilian police
4.085
3. Investment
228.671
a. Fixed capital investment
197.786
(1) New fixed investment
153.968
(a) Machinery and equipment
61.623
(b) Construction and other capital outlays
91.664
(c) Net additions to livestock
0.681
(2) Capital repair
43.818
b. Inventory change
30.885
4. Research and development
20.234
5. Outlays n.e.c.
61.778
a. Net exports
6.754
b. Defense n.e.c., unidentified outlays, and
statistical discrepancy
55.024
6. Consolidated total value of goods and services,
exclusive of sales to households
366.064
7. Transfer outlays
58.185
a. Pensions and allowances
49.700
b. Stipends
2.500
c. Interest Payments to households
.5.671
d. Net new bank loans to households
0.271
e. Profits distributed to consumer cooperative
members
0.043
8. Consolidated total outlays
424.249
Sources for Table B-4
1. Communal services
a. Education. Public-sector outlays on education
(22.218 billion rubles) are the sum of wages (15.599
billion rubles), social insurance (1.092 billion rubles),
and other current outlays (6.836 billion rubles), less
parents' fees for education (1.309 billion rubles, esti-
mated in the derivation of table B-2, item 2, b, (6)).
Wages are the product of reported employment (9.454
million persons-Narkhoz 1983,p. 386) and the
average wage rate (137.5 rubles per month-ibid.,
p. 394). Social insurance is calculated as 7.0 percent
of wages, the new rate introduced in 1982. The
method of estimating other current outlays is set out
in full in USSR: Measures, pp. 349-351. (The value
for 1982 is that calculated as described there in
current prices.)
b. Health. Public-sector outlays for health (13.919
billion rubles) are the sum of wages (8.478 billion
rubles), social insurance (0.593 billion rubles), and
other current outlays (5.097 billion rubles), less house-
hold outlays on public health services (0.250 billion
rubles, estimated in the derivation of table B-2, item
2, b, (7)). Total wages are estimated as the total
reported in union-republic budgets (Gosbyudzhet
1981-85, p. 59) divided by the ratio of union-republic
budget outlays for health to total state budget outlays
for health (94.46 percent-ibid., p. 33). Social insur-
ance is calculated as 7.0 percent of wages, the new
rate introduced in 1982. Other current outlays are
calculated (in current prices) as described in USSR:
Measures, pp. 351-352.
c. Physical culture. Public-sector outlays on physical
culture are 0.147 billion rubles, the sum of budgetary
expenditures (0.113 billion rubles-Norkhoz 1983,
p. 550) and other expenditures (0.034 billion rubles).
The latter are calculated on the assumption that their
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share in total public outlays on physical culture is the
same as reported for 1967 (23 percent-as cited in
USSR: Measures, p. 138).
2. Government administrative services
a. General agricultural programs. Total outlays (2.741
billion- rubies) are the sum of wages (1.969 billion
rubles), social insurance deductions (0.087 billion ru-
bles), and other current outlays (0.685 billion rubles).
Wages are the product of employment (1.041 million
persons) and the average wage rate (157.6 rubles per
month). Employment is determined as the difference
between, total state agricultural employment (12.019
million persons--Narkhoz 1983, p. 385) and employ-
ment at state farms and other state enterprises
(10.978 million persons-ibid.). The wage rate is
calculated from these data and those given in ibid.,
p. 393. Social insurance deductions are derived as 4.4
percent of wages; the rate did not change in 1982.
Other current outlays ire assumed to be one-fourth of
total current outlays, as for 1970.
?b. Forestry. Total outlays (1.050 billion rubles) are the
sum of wages (0.754 billion rubles), social insurance
deductions (0.033 billion rubles), and other current
outlays (0.262 billion rubles). Wages are the product
of reported employment (0.459 million persons-
Narkhoz 1983, p. 385) and the average wage rate
(136.9 rubles per month--Trud v SSSR (Moscow:
Finansy i statistika, 1988), p. 149). Social insurance
deductions are calculated as 4.4 percent of wages, as
for state agriculture. Other current outlays are as-
sumed to be one-fourth of total current outlays.
c. State administration and administration of social
organizations. Total outlays (7.080 billion rubles) are
the sum of wages (4.962 billion rubles), social insur-
ance deductions (0.347 billion rubles), and other cur-
rent outlays (1.770 billion rubles). Wages are the
product of employment (2.591 million persons-
Narkhoz 1983, p. 386) and the average wage rate
(159.6 rubles per month-ibid., p. 394). Social insur-
ance deductions are calculated as 7.0 percent of
wages, the new rate set in 1982. Other current outlays
are assumed to be one-fourth of total current outlays.
d. Municipal and related services
(1) Culture outlays (2.661 billion rubles) are the sum
of wages (1.865 billion rubles), social insurance deduc-
tions (0.131 billion rubles), and other current outlays
(0.665 billion rubles). Wages are the product of
employment (1.362 million persons-Narkhoz 1983,
p. 386) and the average wage rate (114.1 rubles per
month--ibid., p. 394). Social insurance deductions are
calculated as 7.0 percent of wages, the new rate set in
1982. Other current outlays are assumed to be one-
fourth of total current outlays.
(2) Municipal services outlays (1.481 billion rubles)
are the sum of wages (1.061 billion rubles), social
insurance deductions (0.050 billion rubles), and other
current outlays (0.370 billion rubles). Wages are the
product of employment (0.636 million persons) and
the average wage rate (139.0 rubles per month).
Employment is derived by extrapolation from data
given for 1970 and 1980 (in GNP 1970,p. 54, and
Pravda (24 December 1981): p. 3, respectively). The
wage rate is that of the total housing-communal
services sector (Narkhoz 1983. p. 394). Social insur-
ance deductions are calculated as 4.7 percent of
wages, the rate set in 1982 for communal services
enterprises. Other current outlays are assumed to be
one-fourth of total current outlays.
(3) Civilian police outlays (4.085 billion rubles) are the
sum of wages (2.688 billion rubles), social insurance
deductions (0.376 billion rubles), and other current
outlays (1.021 billion rubles). Wages are the product
of employment (1.011 million persons) and an estimat-
ed wage rate (221.6 rubles per month). Employment is
estimated at 67.6 percent of employment in "other
branches of material production" (1.495 million-
Narkhoz 1983, p. 386). The wage rate is assumed to
be 25 percent above the average wage rate of all state
workers and employees (177.3 rubles per month-
ibid., p. 393). Social insurance deductions are calcu-
lated at an assumed 14.0 percent of wages, the rate
set in 1982 for much of industry. Other current
outlays are assumed to be one-fourth of total current
outlays.
109 ?
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3. Investment
a. Fixed capital investment
(1) New fixed investment
(a) Machinery and equipment investment (61.623
billion rubles) is the sum of new fixed investment in
machinery and equipment (59.300 billion rubles),
changes in warehouse stocks of equipment requiring
installation (0.097 billion rubles), and acquisition of
equipment by budget-supported institutions (2.226
billion rubles).
The new fixed investment portion of this estimate is
reported in Narkhbz 1985, p. 364, as the "eqUipment,
instruments, and inventory" component of capital
investment. This value, given in 1984 estimate prices,
reflects the results of the 1982 industrial price reform,
which was not actually effected in investment ac-
counting until 1984.
The change in warehouse stocks of equipment requir-
ing installation (0.097 billion rubles) is estimated on
the assumption that the share of such stocks in the
total value of unfinished construction was the same in
1981 and 1982 as in 1985 (10.73 percent, calculated
from Goskomstat Press Release No. 34 (24 February
1987) and Narkhoz 1986, pp. 324, 332). Unfinished
construction in 1981 and 1982 is given in Narkhoz
1984, p. 387.
The acquisition of equipment by budget-supported
institutions is not included in Soviet investment data
but is estimated as follows. In 1982, union-republic
budget outlays for equipment were 1.598 billion ru-
bles (Gosbyudzhet 1981-85, p. 49). That value is
raised to reflect total state budget outlays by calculat-
ing that union-republic budgets financed 71.8 percent
of total outlays on education and culture, health, ?
physical culture, science, and administration in 1982
(reported in Gosbyudzhet 1981-85, pp. 25-26, 32, 34,
37).
(b) Construction and other capital investment outlays
by the public sector are estimated as the difference
between total new investment in construction and
other fixed capital and private expenditures on hous-
ing construction (1.736 billion rubles, from table B-2,
item 5, a). Total new investment in construction and
other fixed capital is derived as the difference be-
tween the gross output of the construction sector
(115.100 billion rubles, from Narkhoz 1982, p. 45)
and estimated expenditures on capital repair of struc-
tures (21.700 billion rubles, estimated in worksheets).
(c) Net additions to livestock in the public sector are
derived in the same manner as for the private sector
(in table B-1, item 2, c, (2)). The calculation is shown
below.
Valuation of Net Additions to Public-
Sector Livestock Inventories, 1982
Number of Animals
Million Head
Net Additions to
Livestock Inventories
End 1981 End 1982
Million Rubles Per Billion
Head Head Rubles
Cattle
92.5
93.0
0.5
567
0.284
Hogs
59.1
60.9
1.8
189
0.340
Sheep and
goats
117.8
116.6
?1.2
38
?0.046
Poultry
741.6
767.4
25.7
4
0.103
Total
0.681
(2) Capital repair
This value (43.818 billion rubles) is the sum of
amortization deductions (33.702 billion rubles), bud-
get expenditures (8.130 billion rubles), and collective
farm outlays (1.986 billion rubles) for capital repair.
The amortization deductions are from Narkhoz 1985,
p. 558. The budget expenditures are estimated by
raising the 1982 value for union-republic budgets
(5.837 billion rubles?Gosbyudzhet 1981-85, p. 49) to
reflect total state budget outlays, as in item 3, a, (1),
(a) above. The collective farm outlays are estimated in
worksheets.
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b. Inventory change
This value (30.885 billion rubles) is the sum of net
changes in inventories of state enterprises (29.825
billion rubles, derived below) and of collective farms
(1.060 billion rubles, estimated in worksheets). Inven-
tory change fgr state enterprises is estimated from
data given in Narkhoz 1985, p. 554, and Narkhoz
1980, pp. 511, 513. (The shares of the respective items
in 1980 are applied to total values for 1981-82.)
Billion Rubles
End 1981
End 1982
Total working capital
483.830
523.227
Less:
Money assets
42.577
46.044
Financial claims
47.415
51.276
Other working capital
3.871
4.180
Expenses of future periods
5.744
6.212
Livestock
17.950
19.412
Equals:
Inventory change
29.825
4. Research and development
This item is the sum of wages (10.251 billion rubles),
social insurance deductions (0.718 billion rubles), and
material expenditures (9.266 billion rubles). Wages
are the product of employment (4.475 million per-
sons?Narkhoz 1983, p. 386) and the average wage
rate (190.9 rubles per month?ibid., p. 394). Social
111
insurance deductions are calculated as 7.0 percent of
wages, the new rate set in 1982. Material expendi-
tures are estimated in the same manner as the
corresponding component of the GNP index for re-
search and development (see (jSSR: Measures, pp.
108-110).
5. Outlays n.e.c.
a. Net exports are the difference between total exports
and total imports valued in foreign trade prices
(Narkhoz 1985, p. 572).
b. Defense n.e.c., unidentified outlays, and statistical
discrepancy is the difference between total outlays
(item 8 below) and the sum of items 1: 2; 3; 4; 5, a;
and 7.
6. Consolidated total value of goods and services,
exclusive of sales to households, is the sum of items 1
through 5.
7. Transfer outlays are from table B-1, item 8.
8. Consolidated total outlays are equal to total
income from table 8-3, item 9.
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Table B-5
USSR: GNP by Type of Income, 1982
Billion Rubles
I. Wage bill
251.611
a. State wages and salaries
245.021
b. Military pay and allowances
6.590
2. Other and imputed income
94.947
a. Net income of households from agriculture
61.876
b. Military subsistence
3.510
c. Other money income currently earned and
statistical discrepancy
14.753
d. Imputed net rent
2.199
e. Imputed value of owner-supplied
construction services
0.554
f. Charges to economic enterprises for special
funds
12.055
(I) Education
0.758
(2) Research
6.590
(3) Social-cultural measures and sports
activities
0.300
(4) Militarized guards
2.043
(5) Support for administration of higher
echelons
2.364
3. Social insurance
23.947
4. Profits
119.413
a. State enterprises
117.985
(1) Retained profits
17.482
(2) Deductions from profits
100.503
b. Collective farms
-1.615
(1) Retained income
-2.371
(2) Tax on income
0.756
C. Consumer cooperatives
1.798
(1) Retained profits
1.049
(2) Tax on income
0.749
d. Other organizations
1.245
(1) Retained profits
0.871
(2) Tax on income
0.373
5. Depreciation
90.685
6. Turnover and other indirect taxes
187.662
a. Turnover tax
107.864
b. Miscellaneous charges
79.798
7. Allowances for subsidized losses n.e.c.
-54.526
8. Gross national product
713.739
Source Note: This table combines the household and public-sector
incomes derived in tables B-1 and B-3 respectively. Total GNP is
equal to the sum of total incomes, excluding transfers, from those
tables.
Table B-6
USSR: GNP by End Use, 1982
Billion Rubles
I. Consumption
381.375
a. Goods
298.106
(1) Food
177.587
(2) Soft goods
79.735
(3) Durables
40.784
b. Services
83.269
(1) Housing
6.080
(2) Utilities
6.372
(3) Transportation
10.745
(4) Communications
2.725
(5) Repair and personal care
13.554
(6) Recreation
4.136
(7) Education
24.619
(8) Health
14.593
(9) Other
0.445
2. Investment
231.254
a. New fixed investment
156.551
(1) Machinery and equipment
61.623
(2) Construction and other capital outlays
93.400
(3) Net additions to livestock
1.528
b. Capital repair
43.818
c. Inventory change
30.885
3. Other public-sector expenditures
101.110
a. Government administrative services
19.098
(1) General agricultural programs
2.741
(2) Forestry
1.050
(3) State administration and administration
of social organizations
7.080
(4) Municipal and related services
8.227
(a) Culture
2.661
(b) Municipal services
1.481
(c) Civilian police
4.085
b. Research and development
20.234
c. Outlays n.e.c.
61.778
(1) Net exports
6.754
(2) Defense n.e.c., unidentified outlays, and
statistical discrepancy
55.024
4. Gross national product
713.739
Source Note: This table combines the household and public-sector
outlays derived in tables B-2 and B-4, respectively. Total GNP is
equal to the sum of total outlays, excluding transfers, from those
tables.
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Appendix C
Results of Factor Cost Adjustment
of 1982 Soviet GNP
This appendix- summarizes the results of adjusting
1982 Soviet GNP from established prices to factor
cost.
Table C-1 shows the distribution of GNP by type of
income?or value added?in established prices among
the sectors in which that income originates. The total
value of each type of income is from appendix B, table
13-5.
Table C-2 presents the results of adjusting these
estimates of GNP by sector of origin to factor cost:
? With a few minor exceptions, estimates of the state
wage bill, social insurance deductions, other labor
income, and depreciation are the same as for GNP
in established prices.',
? Estimates of profits, indirect taxes, subsidies, and
other nonlabor income are subtracted from GNP in
established prices, and returns on capital (fixed,
working, and unfinished construction) are added
back.
The exceptions are that the factor cost adjustment changes the
estimates of the wages, social insurance, and other labor income of
military personnel and the depreciation estimates for housing,
education, health, and science.
113
Table C-3 shows the distribution of GNP by end use
in established prices among the sectors delivering
output to the various uses. The total value of each
type of end use is from appendix B, table B-6.
Table C-4 presents the results of adjusting these
estimates of end-use GNP to factor cost. To calculate
this adjustment:
? Indirect taxes and subsidies that fall directly on
specific end uses ate first subtracted from the
affected values in established prices.
? After this preliminary step, the deliveries of each
sector to all end-use categories are multiplied by the
price ratio implied by the factor cost adjustment of
that sector's value added.
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Table C-1
USSR: GNP by Sector of Origin in Established Prices, 1982
Billion rubles.
State
Wage
Bill
Indirect
Taxes
Subsidies
Other
Nonlabor
Income
Total
Social Other
Insurance Labor
Deductions Income
Depre-
ciation
Profits
Industry
84.852
11.033
0.127
44.463
79.502
174.158
-40.348
7.709
361.496
Ferrous metals
3.922
0.412
0.006
3.421
5.289
0.163
0.001)
0.356
13.571
Nonferrous metals
2.476
0.260
0.004
2.410
4.748
0.133
0.000
0.225
10.256
Fuel
6.177
0.649
0.009
6.218
11.125
46.104
0.000
0.561
70.843
Electric power
1.968
0.290
0.003
4.391
5.383
1.449
-0.805
0.179
12.857
Machinery
37.646
5.541
0.056
11.048
17.833
8.582
-2.300
3.420
81.826
Chemicals
4.490
0.661
0.007
4.543
4.621
3.082
-1.781
0.408
16.031
Wood. pulp, and paper
6.518
0.548
0.010
2.476
3.370
2.487
0.000
0.592
16.001
Construction materials
5.825
0.374
0.009
2.822
2.008
1.863
0.000
0.529
13 428
Light industry
7.519
1.107
0.011
1.367
9.073
47.060
-8.642
0.683
58 177
Food industry
6.362
0.936
0.010
3.502
-8.925
61.308
-26.820
0.578
54-300
Other industry
1.950
0.253
0.003
2.267
7.126
1.928
0.000
0.1-7
13 706
Construction
29.450
1.889
0.875
5.744
6.655
0.619
0.000
2.676
47.908
Agriculture ?
20.920
2.727
61.907
16.086
-0.970
10.091
-3.314
1.901
109 .44*
Transportation
26.904
1.980
0.040
13.326
14.625
0.777
0.000
2.444
60.0 ti
Communications
3.009
0.221
0.005
0.886
2.423
0.077
-0.915
0.271
5 94
Trade
16.830
1.239
0.025
3.402
11.860
0.425
-2.400
1.529
32 :
Services
61.611
4.721
9.763
6.761
4.359
1.107
- 7.362
.
2.029
? ----
3"'.../xt!.
- - --
Housing
2.962
3.062
0.000
0.106
3.924
0.194
-4.847
0.172
Utilities
1 336
0.066
0.002
1.354
1.267
0.053
0.000
0.0i8
4 !
Repair and personal care
4 793
0.574
4.026.
0.569
0.909
0.145
_
0.000
. .
0.2!0
. .
1; 7.
Recreation
2.559
0.183
1.251
0.694
1.245
0.046
2.515
0.i.
Education
15.599
1.148
'.097
0.000
0.000
0.239
0.000
0.142
520
Health
8.478
0.624
0.424
0.000
0.000
0.128
_
_
"'40
.
9 894
Science
10.251
0.754
0.004
0.986
0.000
0.162
.0.000
0.000
0.358
2 1 i
Credit and insurance
1.370
0.10)
0.004
0.096
0.938
0.034
0.000
0.060
2.60()
Government administration
13.300
1.077
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.193
0.000
O.3T
14 441
General agricultural
programs
1.969
0.091
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.028
0.000
a 056
:44
Forestry
0.754
0.035
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.011
0.000
0 021
State administration
4.962
0.365
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.072
0.000
0.140
5 NA
Culture
l.865
0.137
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.027
0.000
00'
n54
Municipal services
1.061
0.052
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.015
0.000
0.010
Civilian police
2.688
0.396
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.041
0.000
0.076
1 20?
Military personnel
6.590
0.000
3.510
0.000
0.000
0.132
0.000
_
0.000
10 21'
Other branches
1.446
0.138
0.002
0.018
0.958
0.275
-0.187
0.131
1 78,
Gross national product
251.611
23.947
76.255
90.685
119.413
187.662
-54.526
18 592
'3739
114
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Table C-2
USSR: GNP by Sector of Origin at Factor Cost. 1982
Billion rubles.
State
Wage
Bill
Social
Insurance
Deductions
Other
Labor
Income
Depre-
ciation
Returns on Capital
Total
Fixed
Working
Unti n i shed
Construction
Industry
84.852
11.033
0.127
44.463
45.650
17.068
6.136?
209 330
Ferrous metals
3.922
0.412
0.006
3.421
3.433
0.836
0.512
17.543
Nonferrous metals
2.476
0.260
0.004
2.410
2.076
0.768
0.270
8.270
Fuel
6.177
0 649
0.009
6.218
4.902
0.614
1 402
19.9'2
Electric power
I 968
0.790
0.003
4.391
7.147
0.307
0.729
14 334.
Machinery
37.646
5 541
0.056
11.048
11.317
6.981
1.417
74.001
_
Chemicals
4 490
0.661
0.007
4.543
4.152
0.836
0.833
_
15.571
. ...
Wood, pulp, and paper
-
6.518
0.548
0.010
2.476
1.952
0.802
0.211
_
12.517
Construction materials
5.825
0:374
0.009
2.822
2.742
0.579
0.241
12.541
Light industry
7.519
1.107
0.011
1.367
1.874
2.253
0.116
14.246
Food industry
6.362
0.936
0.010
3.502
3.053
2.458
0.251
16.571
Other industry
1.950
.025
0.003
2.267
3.004
0.683
0.153
8 314
Construction
29.450
1.889
0.875
5.744
4.073
8.284
0.308
50 621
Agriculture
20.920
2.727
61.907
16.086
24.676
5.249
1.864
.33.429_,
Transportation
26.904
1.980
0.040
13.326
17.314
0.762
1.308
.,; .634
Communications
3.009
0.221
0.005
0.886
1.336
0.108
0.101
. 5.665
Trade
16.830
1.239
0.025
3.402
_
5.914
14.075
0.447
. ... -
. .
4 '
Services
61.611
4.721
9.763
20.672
30.366
1.490
1.511
30.114
Housing
3.924
0.194
2.962
10.799
16.198
0.795
0.806
35.677
Utilities
1.336
0.066
0.002
1.354
5.194
0.255
0.258
.. _
8 41?5
Repair and personal care
4.793
0.574
4.026
0.569
0.491
0.024
0.024
In Str
Recreation
2.559
0.183
1.251
0.694
1.732
0.085
0.086
6
Education
15.599
1.148
1.092
3.621
3.258
0.160
0.162
25 040
Health
8.478
0.624
0.424
2.035
1.831
0.090
0091-
13.573
Science
10.251
0.754
0.004
1.506
1.355
0.066
__._
0 067
14.005
Credit and insurance
1.370
0.101
0.002
0.096
0.308
0.015
0.015
1 90"
Government administration
13.300
1.077
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
14.376
General agricultural
programs
1.969
0.091
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
2.060
Forestry
0.754
0.035
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.789
. ._ .
State administration
4.962
0.365
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
5.328
Culture
1.865
0.137
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
ti.utru
vu'
Municipal services
1.061
0.052
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
113
Civilian police
2.688
0.396
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
Oti
Military personnel
10.153
0.966
1.160
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
12.2'9
Other branches
1.446
0.138
0.002
0.018
0.086
0.004
0.007
! 707
Gross national product
255.173
24.913
73.905
. 104.597
129.416
46.990
11.681
6 ? 676
115
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Table C-3
USSR: GNP by End Use in Established Prices, 1982
Billion rubles
Consumption
Investment
Government
Administration
Research and
Development
Export i
Imports
Goods Services
Industry
248.612
0
83.741
0
0
62.479
-49.443
Ferrous metals
0
0
2.054
0
0
3.499
-6.369
Nonferrous metals
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Fuel
2.698
0
0
0
0
32.490
-2.481
Electric power
0
0
o
o
0
.545
-.056
Machinery
22.359
0
77.579
0
0
18.899
-20.991
Chemicals
4.883
0
2.054
0
0
2.348
-4.17/
Wood, pulp, and paper
6.423
0
2.054
0
0
1.908
-1.521
Construction materials
3.054
0
0
0
0
.459
-.659
Light industry
68.258
0
o
o
o
1.253
-5.377
Food industry
135.192
0
0
0
0
.726
-7.513
Other industry
5.745
0
o
o
o
.352
-.304
Construction
a
0
115.100
0
0
0
0
Agriculture
45.949
o
1.528
o
o
.470
-6.869
Transportation
0
10.745
0
0
0
0
0
Communications
0
2.725
0
0
0
0
0
Trade
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Services
0
69.354
0
19.098
20.234
o
o
Housing
o
6.080
0
0
o
o
o
Utilities
o
6.372
0
0
0
0
0
Repair and personal care
0
13.554
0
0
0
0
0
Recreation
0
4.136
0
0
0
0
0
Education
0
24.619
o
o
o
o
0
Health
0
14.593
o
o
o
o
o
Science
0
0
0
0
20.234
0
0
Credit and insurance
0
0
0
o
o
o
o
Government administration
0
0
0
19.098
0
0
0
General agricultural
programs
0
0
0
2.741
0
o
o
Forestry
o
o
o
1.050
o
o
o
State administration
o
o
o
7.080
o
o
o
Culture
0
o
o
2.661
o
o
o
Municipal services
o
o
o
1.481
o
o
0
0
Civilian police
o
o
o
4.085
o
o
Military personnel
o
o
o
o
o
o
0
Other branches
3.545
o
o
o
o
-.216
-.099
Gross national product
298.106
82.824
200.369
19.098
20.234
63.165
-56.411
116
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1
Table C-4
USSR: GNP by End Use at Factor Cost, 1982
Billion rubles
Consumption
Investment
Government
Administration
Research and
Development
Exports-
Imports
Goods
Services
Industry
169.467
0
80.406
0.
0
40.585
-44.442
Ferrous metals
0
0
1.688
0
0
3.504
-5.399
Nonferrous metals
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Fuel
.932
0
0
0
0
4.326
-1.343
Electric power
0
0
0
0
0
.213
-.048
Machinery
10.873
0
75.006
0
0
21.743
-19.711
Chemicals
3.107
0
1.932
0
0
2.829
-3.924
Wood. pulp, and paper
4.946
0
1.780
0
0
1.480
-1.318
Construction. materials
2.543
0
0
.0
0
.433
-.592
Light industry
32.851
0
0
? 0
0
2.661
-3.788
Food industry
110.840
0
0
0
0
2.208
-8.010
Other industry
3.374
0
0
' 0
0
1.188
-.309
Construction . ?
o
o
114.444
o
o
o
0
Agriculture .
52.559
0
1.818
0
0
.857
-8.175
Transportation
0
10.670
0
0
0
0
0
Communications .
0
2.706
0
0
0
0
0
Trade
2.633
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Services
0
116.274
0
18.528
21.724
0
Housing
Utilities
0
36.184
0
0
0
0
0
0
10.700
0
0
0
0
0
Repair and personal care
0
12.829
0
0
0
0
0
0
Recreation
0
7.150
0
0
0
0
_. .
Education
0
31.139
0
0
0
0
0
0
Health
0
18.272
0
0
0
0
Science
0
0
0
0
21.724
0
0
Credit and insurance
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Government administration
0
0
0
18.528
0
0
General agricultural
programs
0
0
0
2.658
0
0
0
Forestry
0
0
0
1.018
0
0
0
0
State administration
0
0
0
6.867
0
0
? Culture
0
0
0
2.581
0
0
0
Municipal services
0
0
0
1.436
0
0
0
Civilian police
0
0
0
3.968
0
0
0
Military personnel
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Other branches
3.147
0
0
0
0
.155
-.088
Gross national product .
227.806
129.650
196.668
18.528
21.724
41:597
-52.704
117
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP92M00732R000300110011-1