HIGH CAPACITY DIGITAL RADIO TRENDS THROUGH THE YEAR 2000

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP92M00686R000100010038-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 29
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 26, 2012
• Sequence Number: 38
• Publication Date: October 1, 1985
• Content Type: MISC

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/26: CIA-RDP92M00686R000100010038-7
?
HIGH CAPAaTY DIGITAL RADIO 'TRENDS
'THROUGH THE YEAR 2000
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/26: CIA-RDP92M00686R000100010038-7
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/26: CIA-RDP92M00686R000100010038-7
TRENDS
FREE WORLD/EUROPE
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/26: CIA-RDP92M00686R000100010038-7
SINGULAR TREND TOWARD
SPECTRAL EFFICIENCY
MULTI-LEVEL MODULATIONS
ci DUAL-POLARIZATION
o HIGHER FREQUENCIES
ci FREQUENCY REUSE
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/26: CIA-RDP92M00686R000100010038-7
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/26: CIA-RDP92M00686R000100010038-7
MULTIPA'TH COUNTERMEASURES
AND INTERFERENCE CANCELLERS NEEDED
TECHNOLOGIES IN DEVELOPMENT:
FORWAR.D ERROR CORRECTION/CONfPLEX CODING
ROBUST SPECTRUM SHAPING
PREDISTORTION TECHNIQUES
HIGHLY LINEAR AMPLIFIERS
HIGH PERFORNIANCE ANTENNAS
SPACE DIVERSITY
MULTI-CARRIER TRANSMISSION
ROBUST CARRIER RECOVERY AND DECISION CIRCUITRY
TRANSVERSAL EQUALIZERS
MATCHED FILTERS
RAIN ATTENUATION COUNTERMEASURES
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/26: CIA-RDP92M00686R000100010038-7
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/26: CIA-RDP92M00686R000100010038-7
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RF FREQUENCY 'TRENDS
?
1:1 CURRENT
2-40 GHZ CHANNEL PLANS
LONG-HAUL PRIMARILY ON RFS UNDER 12 GHZ (4 AND 6 GHZ)
SHORT-HAUL PRIMARILY ON RFS OVER 12 GHZ
(13, 15, 18, 20, 23, 28, 28)
FUTURE
LITTLE CHANGE - DOWNWARD COMPATIBILITY REQUIRED
NEW CAPACITY POSSIBLY AT 8 AND 11 GHZ
MAJORITY OF LONG HAUL DIGITAL IN 4 AND 6 GHZ (4 AND 5 GYM I
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/26: CIA-RDP92M00686R000100010038-7
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/26: CIA-RDP92M00686R000100010038-7
CHANNEL BANDWIDTH TRENDS
LI CURRENT
20,30, AND 40 MHZ SPEC'D BY CCIR
c) FUTURE
LITTLE CHANGE-DOWNWARD COMPATIBILITY REQUIRED
EXPANDED BANDWIDTHS WILL OCCUR AT HIGHER RFS ,
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/26: CIA-RDP92M00686R000100010038-7
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/26: CIA-RDP92M00686R000100010038-7
MODULATION TRENDS
CURRENT
QPSK AND 16 QAM USED EXTENSIVELY
64 QAM POPULAR IN NORTH AMERICAN NETWORK ON 6 GHZ
FUTURE
MAXIMIZE CAPACITY FIRST WITH DUAL-POLARIZED 16 QAM
MORE 64 QAM DEPENDING ON BIT RATE/BW COMBINATION
1., .
?
256 QAM FIELD TRIALS BEGAN IN 1985
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/26: CIA-RDP92M00686R000100010038-7
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/26: CIA-RDP92M00686R000100010038-7
I ?
Technique
TECHNOLOGY TREND SUMMARY
16111111111SIM:F,rr,NE TIF1:11141/1.0h0 IN I/MITA'. **MI
Inkieitips
Ratliti
In?
timer Multi-Level
Modulation Chatittet
C:atatt its
One-rmquerws
Repeating
Digit thinks
11,3,11 hing
Radio Channel
Caw( its
(2 (old)
Problems
Wateittrui
Distention
Residual Firms
Fading
xrn
Countermeasures and
Key Technologies
Transversal Equalirets. Matched
Palters. Spate Diversity,
Multi-(:atrier Coded
Mtaltslation. Foroard Ern*
Correction. Microwave Digital
Processing
Digit XI'D Antenn,s.
Trateurrsal-Tspr Cancellers
Ktaliration Time
, Frames
2SfIQAM: 19Nfis
tifiXTiliQA
2021h '
198th
Rome Capat its
(2 fold)
Trateimit/Receive
Interference
Transversal-Type tantrIlers.
Transmitting Power Control.
Network (:fintrol
1990s
I Uglier Frequent y
Raoul%
Rome nivel
Nodal Capacity
(I-.1 fold)
Rranch Route
Interference
Interference Cancellers. High
Directivits Antennas. Network
Mak
Rome k Ni NIiI
(*Attu its
lithli
Rain Attenuation
It I: too?oil
MIC7s. Mottolithit MICA. CaA?
.At tplifiers. litteatireti.
Analog-Digital Minh!
Reiwaters
.tioth?Milliturter:
1?191k
4ipatiti
(2 fold).
Suit/Nem Omuta
Fading
RAU' .Theittimitto
? I ituf? Iti?totul tbs? %I'M "111111 mi? ...ti,,,,,...It?11.11%.
I I if 111?%11 Nel
to Milt Saltlike%
21111k
"INNI%
? IEEE CommunIcattrts Map**
Oct. 1986
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/26: CIA-RDP92M00686R000100010038-7
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/26: CIA-RDP92M00686R000100010038-7
ussfi
EUROPE
61.0 c
NORTH AMERICA
MODULATION LEVEL BY
CHANNEL BW AND BIT RATE
CHANNEL
SW
SIT RATE
???
20 Ms
37 MHz
40 MN:
34 Mbh
SIMM
140. Mbh
290 Mbh
4-PSK 4-PSK 4-PSK
10-0AM 11-PSK 4-PSK
258-0AM 94-0AM 19-0AM
1024-GAM 258-0AM
45 Mbh
SIMM
135 Mbh
190 Mbh
270 MM
?? ?? ??
94-0AM 150AM 9-PSK
258-0AM 54-0AM 150AM
1024-0AM 258-0AM 64-0AM
10244/AM 255-0AM
es FCC REOUIRES A MINIMUM OF 78 Mbh FOR COMMON CARRIERS
IEEE CCommurtIcatIon Magadne
Oct 1986
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/26: CIA-RDP92M00686R000100010038-7
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OTHER FREQUENCY DOMAIN TRENDS.
DUAL POLARIZATION
WILL HAPPEN BEFORE HIGHER MODULATIONS
EUROPEAN PITS COMMITTED TO 16 QAM, 140 MBPS
IN 40 MHZ CHANNEL
HIGHER FREQUENCIES
EVOLUTION TO 34 MBPS AT 15 GHZ AND 140 IMPS AT 13 GHZ
FOR EUROPEAN JUNCTION NETWORKS
18, 23, 28, 38 GYM FOR LOCAL NETWORKS
(ISDN, PABX INTERCONNECTS)
CO-FREQUENCY OPERATION
NEEDS ROBUST INTERFERENCE CANCELLATION FIRST
POTENTIAL TO DOUBLE EXISTING CAPACITY
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/26: CIA-RDP92M00686R000100010038-7
TIME DOMAIN TRENDS
?
u CHANNEL ENCODING
ERROR CORRECTION CODES WITH
HIGHER MODULATION LEVELS
ADDITIVE RESET SCRA1V1BLERS
?
TDM MULTIPLEX FORMATS
CEPT STANDARD MOST COMMON
BELL, JAPANESE, SOVIET WILL BE MAINTAINED
NONSTANDARD RADIO LEVEL 1VIULTIPLiiniING
SOCCER/BASEBALL RULE OF THUIV1B
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/26: CIA-RDP92M00686R000100010038-7
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/26: CIA-RDP92M00686R000100010038-7
WHY CHOOSE DIGITAL
OVER ANALOG?
?
1:1 TERMINAL EQUIPMENT CHEAPER
13 MORE RELIABLE, LESS MAINTAINENCE
BETTER SIGNAL QUALITY
13 TRANSPARENT TO DATA
CI SYNERGY WITH DIGITAL SWITCHING
CI ADVANCES WITH DEVICE TECHNOLOGY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/26: CIA-RDP92M00686R000100010038-7
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/26: CIA-RDP92M00686R000100010038-7
FACTORS INFLUENCING RATE OF
ANALOG TO DIGITAL TRANSMON
U DEMAND FOR DIRECT DATA SERVICE VS. POTS
DEMAND FOR QUALITY
RATE OF TELEPHONE GROWTH
O PRESENT ANALOG INVESTMENT
CI DEPRECIATION STRATEGIES
O POLMCAL, ECONOMIC, SOCIAL, DEVELOPMENTS
U GEOGRAPHY
I '
'
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/26: CIA-RDP92M00686R000100010038-7
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/26: CIA-RDP92M00686R000100010038-7
COST PROFILES OF ANALOG
AND DIGITAL TRUNK RADIO TRANSMISSION
(1981)
ANALOG CARRIER (FM, 3600 CKTS)
\
DIGITAL CARRIER (18 OAM, 200 MBPS/2880 CKTS)
TIME
0 PROVE-OUT DISTANCE
400
DISTANCE (KM)
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/26: CIA-RDP92M00686R000100010038-7
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/26: CIA-RDP92M00686R000100010038-7
NORTH AMERICAN TRENDS
O RF COMMON CARRIER ALLOCATIONS:
U.S.: 2,4, 6,11 GHZ
CANADA: 2, 4, 6, 8, 11 GHZ
CI STANDARD CARRIER DESIGNS:
4 GHZ 2 DS-3 IN 20 MHZ, 16 OAM, 28%
6 GHZ 3 DS-3 IN 30 MHZ, 64 OAM, 51%
11 GHZ 3 DS3 IN 40 MHZ, 8-PSK; 21%
8 GHZ 2 DS-3 IN 40 MHZ
CI CANADA HAS 8 GHZ CROSS-COUNTRY SYSTEM
CI AT&T COMPLETING 4 GHZ CROSS-COUNTRY SYSTEM
, I, ? ?
MCI OPERATES LONG-HAUL DIGITAL MICROWAVE SYSTEM
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/26: CIA-RDP92M00686R000100010038-7
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/26: CIA-RDP92M00686R000100010038-7
t ?
EUROPEAN TRENDS
O RF COMMON CARRIER ALLOCATIONS:
4, 6 GHZ
SOME PLANNING AND DEPLOYMENT AT 11 AND 18 GHZ
0 STANDARD CARRIER DESIGNS:
SQUEEZE MULTIPLES OF 140 MBPS INTO
30 AND 40 MHZ CHANNELS AT 4 AND 6 GHZ
30 MHZ, 64 QAM DEPLOYMENTS COMPATIBLE vvrm ANALOG
. IN LOWER 6 GHZ BAND
13 20-50% TRAFFIC BY RADIO RELAY
20% OF THIS TRAFFIC BY DIGITAL RADIO RELAY
1,6 .?
\ FRANCE: MOST DIGITAL COUNTRY AT 56% TRUNK TRANSMISSION
O SWITZERLAND: BEGAN CONVERSION IN '85; COMPLETE IN 40 YRS.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/26: CIA-RDP92M00686R000100010038-7
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/26: CIA-RDP92M00686R000100010038-7
THIRD WORLD *MENDS
13 GREATEST RATE OF GROWTH IN DIGITAL TRANSMISSION
BOTSWANA: FIRST 100% DIGITAL COUNTRY
CI DEPLOYMENTS OF DIGITAL CARRIER BY NEC ALONE (AS OF SEPT. 86)
LAIN AMERICA ASIA
ST. VINCENT
VENEZUELA
MIDOCO
EL SALVADOR
HOICURAS
JAMAICA
ARGENTINA
CHLE
BRAZIL
FERU
?
EGYPT
UBYA
TUNISIA
ALGERIA
ETHIOPIA
SUDAN
13 GHZ 34 MB
2411 GHZ 13-140 MB
6,11,15 GHZ 17-140 MB
7,8 GHZ 17-34 MB
2,8,11 GHZ 4-90 MB
2,11 GM 14-78 MB
8,11 GI-11 140 MB
Z13 GHZ 34 MB
2, 5, 8 GHZ 4-140 MB
7,13 QC 17-34MB
AFRICA
2 GHZ 4-17 MB
211 GI-TZ 17-140 MB
2 8 GHZ 17-68 MB
2, 15 GHZ 34-140 MB
11 GM 140 MB
2 GHZ 17MB
AUSTRAUA
PAPUA NEVV GUINEA
INDIA
SRI LANA
PAKISTAN
1}IAILAND
PHILPMES
SINGAPORE
INDONESIA
TAIWAN
HMG KOM
CHINA
4, 6,8, 11, 18,40,50 GHZ2-140 MB
2 GIC4 MB
7GHZ 34 MB
Z 4, 8 GHZ 4-68 MB
7 GHZ 34 MB
2, 5, 6, 7, 11 GI-TZ 17-140 MB
6,8 GEIZ 17-68 MB
2, 8, 11 Cie 13-68 MB
2 GHZ 17-34 MB
6,11 GHZ 90 MB
27,11 GHZ3-45M9_
4, 5, 7, 8 GI{Z 17-140 MB.
? ?
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/26: CIA-RDP92M00686R000100010038-7
a c' -9n?ce.'i i?ueE.V4431
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/26: CIA-RDP92M00686R000100010038-7
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rUJ1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/26: CIA-RDP92M00686R000100010038-7
INORTH AMERICA
Contract Year . Country Customer
Equipment Quantity (TR)
1983 U.S.A.
MCI Telecommunications DM4G-100H
Corporation (4GHz Band, 64 QAM)
85
1986 U.S.A.
MCI Telecommunications DM4G-100H
Corporation (4GH: Band, 64 QAM)
QWEST Microwave Inc. DM6C-100H
(6GH: Band, 64 QAM)
DM6G-100L
(6GH: Band, 64 QAM)
DM11G-100H
(11GH: Band, 64 QAM)
144
110
6
North America Total
LATIN AMERICA
Contract Year
1985
354
Country Customer
EquiPment Quantity (TR)
Colombia Empresas Pablicas de DM800-100H
Medellin (EPM) (800MHz Band, 4 PSK)
DM6C-100H
(6GH: Band, 4 PSK)
24
Latin America Total
24
46
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/26: CIA-RDP92M00686R000100010038-7
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/26: CIA-RDP92M00686R000100010038-7
Contract Year Country
1963
1965
People's
Republic
of China
Malaysia
Thailand
Customer
Amoi Post and Tele-
communications Bureau
Telecommunications
Department ()TM)
Communication Authority
of Thailand (CAT)/
Telephone Organization
of Thailand (TOT)
Equipment
DM2G-100H
(2CHz Band, 4 PSK)
DM8G-100H
(8GHz Band, 16 QAM)
DM8C-100H
(8GHz Band, 4 PSK)
ASIA I
Quantity (TR)
2
56
4
Asia Total
Contract Year
1982
1983
Country
New Zealand
New Zealand
Customer
New Zealand Post Office
(NZPO)
New Zealand Post Office
(NZPO)
Equipment
62
OCEANIA
Quantity (TR)
DM6G100H
(6GHz Band, 16 QAM)
DM6G-100H
(6GHz Band, 16 QAM)
DM4C-100H
(4GH: Band, 16 QAM)
DM6C-100H
(6GHz Band, 4 PSK)
DM7G-100H
(7GH: Band, 4 PSK)
DM11C-100H
(11GH: Band, 16Q&)
?
2
44
16
4
28
14
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/26: CIA-RDP92M00686R000100010038-7
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/26: CIA-RDP92M00686R000100010038-7
IOCEANIA
Contract Year
1984
1985
1986
Oceania Total
Country
Customer
Equipment
Quantity (TR)
New Zealand
New Zealand Post Office
DM6G-100H
(NZPO)
(6GHz Band, 16 QAM)
DM7G-100H
?
(7CHz Band, 4 PSK)
DM11G-100H
(11CH: Band, 16 QAM)
New Zealand
New Zealand Post Office
DM4G-100H
2
(NZPO)
(4CHz Band, 16 QAM)
DM6G-100H
168'
(6GHz Band, 16 QAM)
DM6G-100H
4
(6GHz Band, 4 PSK)
DM7G-100H -
48
(7CHz Band, 4 PSK)
DM11G-100H
8
(11CHz Band, 16 QAM)
DM6G-100H
(6GHz Band, 64 QAM)
New Zealand
New Zealand Post Office
DM6G-100H
94
(NZPO)
(6GHz Band, 16 QAM)
DM11G-100H
5
(11GH: Band, 16 QAM)
DM6G-100H
28
(6GHz Band, 4 PSK)
541
24
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/26: CIA-RDP92M00686R000100010038-7
Contract Year
Country ? Customer
Equipment
AFRICA I
Quantity (TR)
1979 Algeria Minister. des Pastes it
Telecommunications
(P et T)
PSK2G-10/1
(2GHz Band)
12
1983 Algeria Ministere des Postes it
Telecommunications
(Pet T)
Kenya
Kenya Posts and Telecom-
munications Corporation
(KPTC)
DM2G-100H
(2GHz Band, 4 PSK)
DM7G-100H
(7CHz Band, 4 PSK)
8
4
Africa Total
24
MIDDLE & NEAR EAST
Contract Year Country Customer
Equipment
Quantity (TR)
198$ Jordan Telecommunications
Corporation
DM2G-100H
(2GHz Band, 4 PSK)
56
1986 UAE
The Emirates Telecom-
munications Corporation
Limited (ET1SALAT)
DM7G-100H
(7GHz Band, 4 PSK)
40
Middle & Rear East Total
27'
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/26: CIA-RDP92M00686R000100010038-7
Ii?
IMPACT OF COMPETING TECHNOLOGIES
13 REVITALIZATION OF HIGH SPECTRUM EFFICIENCY DIGITAL MODEMS
FOR DIGITAL DATA TRANSMISSION OVER EXISTING ANALOG RADIO
192 KBPS OVER VGC
216 KBPS OVER BASIC FDM GROUP
1.544 (DS-1) OVER FDM SUPERGROUP
2 DS-3'S OVER FDM HYPER1VIASTER GROUP
CI OPTICAL FIBER DEPLOYMENTS
AT&T'S FIBER CAPACITY TODAY EQUIVALENT TO ENTIRE
BELL LONG-HAUL NETWORK OF 1980
ENORMOUS BANDWIDTH CAPACITY MAY SOFTEN RATE
OF DIGITAL RADIO DEPLOYMENTS
???
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/26: CIA-RDP92M00686R000100010038-7
TRENDS
SOVIET AND BLOC
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R
Next 8 Page(s) In Document Denied
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STAT
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/26: CIA-RDP92M00686R000100010038-7
WILD-CARD SCENARIO
O GLASNOST/GORBACHEV REFORMS COULD
QUICKEN PACE OF TELECOM DEVELOPMENT
ci DOMESTIC INDUSTRY UNABLE TO MEET DEMAND
WESTERN EQUIPMENT FLOWS WITH
RELAXED RESTRICTIONS ON EASTERN BLOC SALES
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/26: CIA-RDP92M00686R000100010038-7
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STAT
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/26: CIA-RDP92M00686R000100010038-7
?
CONCLUSIONS
STRONG TREND IN WEST, THIRD WORLD, AND CHINA
TOWARDS DIGITAL RADIO RELAY
a SOVIETS PROGRESSING VERY SLOWLY;
? HIGH CAPACITY DIGITAL RADIO YEARS AWAY
ANALOG NOT DEAD YET
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/26: CIA-RDP92M00686R000100010038-7
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/26: CIA-RDP92M00686R000100010038-7
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/26: CIA-RDP92M00686R000100010038-7
STAT