WILL RUSSIA RUN SHORT OF OIL?

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP92B00478R000800030016-4
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 16, 2014
• Sequence Number: 16
• Publication Date: May 22, 1981
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

Declassified and Approved For Release 2014/01/16: CIA-RDP92B00478R000800030016-4
?11 ? ,
LONDON TIMES
22 May 1981
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In 1977the CIA had .'a profound. outsiders to -check what theY.Ida!:?...: 'produce at leatt'.600,4:i0Orn cubic
effect on .? American-. ..thinking.: disclose After the CIA.ireport in:. ',meries:-.:Ity:;7?1985...:: It is i; also.
when it predicted that Soviet oil ? -1.977 they ?even stopped publish- pushing - ahead with nuclear..
??.' production woulcrieich:a-peak;.:Cing detailed statistics On their-. power Gas-Fand'unclear power
.of abant twelve nullinfiharkelS.a .?;. fuel trade But they, themie1ves-conld itake eSome?Of...the 'strain
:day, ?*perhaps ? ai..earlY:as. 1978,-- are ? probably -.uncertain too off oil.. Slower economic growth
and. would ? then.... decline to. -. '*:. They have enormous reserves of ?, ' will'..'-do ' the same samc- ? :Another ,
.between eight and ten :million -: - oil but the technical difficulties 'variable is the: extent-to-which-
-barrels a day by. 1985; ..turning. ' of. ? extracting 'it 'from remote'7. the .Soviet' Union and eastern.
:the Soviet .Union and: eastern ? 'Tcold areas and then transporting '"?.; Europe 4.112-learn- to use. energy'.
Europe : into ? substantial,' net '2'. it' across . vast- distances are .sol: more efficiently: than theyl.do .
'importers.' President-Carter and, ..great that. -.even 7.the.best : predid--,-now.,-;They::-are -beginning :-?,:to -
'. many of the people now close to .....;? tions.' Can:. be upset. Moreover - ?-'. realize that investing in energy- .
?Presidept Reagan.took.this:as a: .....they; need; -western-- technology .? saving equipment can bring. at
'warning that .the;Boviet :Union; ? T.for..nianYinf: the. more difficult ? ? better: return ? than - inveiting -mu.
? would ? become :. a????potentially.:i.:tasks,,%-and .,although' ;they ems:- larger. supplies7of:- energy,: but
dangerous competitor :. for.Nlictt-I! getting Some:they-can:never be,??E They-are -.. slowito :titi.: anything'.
die -East oil.- Their, fears were ? ? quite sure that thCSupply, will:. about it ? - ??..::- -- - - ? ' ' , ? - ,
increased' when the invasion of'?::,,iZontintie:7,-;:. 4q..4.*::,.., , I !. :..,?,......: .- Probably i- : I . reasonable "i'dir;.
Afghanistan ''. bronght. : Soviet : I 'There are, theiefore,; feil raiii .,?Isurnption at:this , stage - is that:
.forces much::: nearer the : Gulf even.' with ?,?gis,.': nuclear - energy
-: facts ..to :hold on, to is . clear. - .
New impetus was given to :Platis. ...that- the --.groWth-:.oft. Soviet 'oil. ...and a measure of Of gpo4 little:the,
for, building ,Up western abilitli i-?.; rodtictiOn has slowed cloven ''a ...".; Soviet , blocki.: as ,a - Whoie'::::ivill
. to mut 'military forces intothe:? theindeed? -be.r.short 'of -oil ? by -the..
area ,1'.'"!-- ir4"44
,.. rot :::sinee the'196014."Ali-
' :4-4=E":'".". -"=? ???? Onient . the '-'' Ian" for. 1985'. is: -4"middle,of the decade; -the Soviet.
,,.,, ,.,...... ,??? ..: ? ., ???:? ???:?:,,, - ?? ' f,' ? 'In '7' ?:13 = ? ? ? ? ? :. ' -:' :Union Will lace:an:even thatInn'...
, -The. CIA:: estimates of tiiture.:" between'..?12.4 -*and .1.4.9. million,- . ? . ...
oil production were criticized by ;7ban-els. * -day."--,ThiST.,i?, ioughlK.f .
-.choice. thmi,:it does now betw' een '
'?supplying .? its east ' :- European,.
Many?, experts; 'especially in , the same'at the 19807-plan, Whit .
Europe; who said they were too .',' was notfulfilled,c?sn.the, Soviet i....' sallies r;att,...t. -subsidized--rates' ed.:,.rates-. or
for . hard,.
.
low .4 These dist,#eementS con- Union itself foresees a levelling -to 1h. 0,w-ft
this -': does -.210t7
? tributed to. Atlantic differencel'init.of Production.7..,..!,x . ..i -tf:r..: :i:.??,..211- i
.-' neCissartlY; be.:
over policies in the Gulf area....?.* ? *.... Taken ..on its own, this ing?zi ed to sena forces into the,
Now - the CIA,- ii annvin-gsome!'i ? .gests ?that rising demand: in, the ..!:?.?Gulf; ;1- if '7 Oid5i*beCatigi'f-it -.is;
what .:.closer .to Europe ? b$'. Soviet ? Union. - and eastern 'Fiwratally cheaper and _safeitol-'
putting its estimate of -Soviet ail Europe cannot be-Mit:except' bir,-. buy oil than to take it by force.,1
production in -,:..1985 ..:atr.,...104.1 jicincreasing imports from outside :1;?.There will, '-hoWever, be :greater'
'_mullion barrels a:-...daY,...ilightbr .rs. the block. As.a.resultithe Bovietz,--temptation'ltes, cultivate.: clients
below- the presentprochiction of Union :Mor,,.-.113.e - able... tcr :states ? who 'inight?be?Tersiescledc
:.12 million barrels a _day.: There:7Ccintititie :earning,visl it does to ? sell -On7:weferennal.... terms.'.;
is; however, ? a!-fairly:rtypisal..---how-: ?soniethihg.. like sixty ?pei..17,i There may also be a temptation:
Washington ' muddle. .*Vor:-.. in-7.7 cent'. of ?-it*..liard...aiiiiincY frMIC-,!.' to '? loom over f western sources;;
terpretation: The:i''Neie-;,Tork,'...' .. oil exports :Bence it will have ':' not in order to get the* oil but
Times. quoted. officialsas.sayint,-;*- less cash for-western..grain and : 'isimply to piit7- pressure on: ?the
that . the new ettimatea:meant . ,technology. There could also, be.,"'?
western alliance
the Russians would .. not,. be; :strains- ten*, eastern.. i- Mire:mei:. -:- .
. : ?:, ? ,. ? - . -?.:???:' : .-?
'competing for Middle Eastern-:: which -is 'already. paying -steadily ?. It:mittak It -would," therefore be.; a -
'oil by ?1985. The CIA then -put ? rising Prices. for- Soviet on and ...,..e fort.the west to' let. its:
out. a statement saying that all :. : will nOw have to:look for-More - .sooliaiesite ten Much influenced
,, oily , variable ' ettimates , of, Soviet
the '
.
of problems that we foresaw . hard. currency lc production .- Whatever the
' the? Soviets facing,are ein of erg-sufficient capacity to earnit...!.. ..c . Soviet Union's . capabilities and
, .
' :-ng :: --, -:?-: -. . .. .....--. 7 .,i,,;,..,:i.;;;Diivever,-,;.!tliereil,,are.? "other .?:: intentions the west will continue
'..., Uncertainty -surrounds -the , factors;. For instance,the Soviet: . ; to need good relations, with the
-whole- subject because the. Rus-::: Union-, is.- producing steadily ,-:oil-producing ., states and Some.
tians publish very .little infor- I more natural gas. It achieved its... -ability to deploy military:force if/
=don and make it difficult for?-?;: targets. in 1980 . and. ;plans ? to E, necessary.. ? 7:- ?-';-.-i ,?, :r7:. ????=?'%?1
.. - .:.
Declassified and Approved For Release 2014/01/16: CIA-RDP92B00478R000800030016-4