DEAR MR. MINNICH:

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91T01172R000400090006-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 2, 2005
• Sequence Number: 6
• Publication Date: April 22, 1954
• Content Type: LETTER

Approved For Release 2005/06/0~`-CI`i~F-'RJ 91 T01172RO0400090006-4
22 April 1954
Mr. Arthur Minnich
Executive Office of the President
The White House
Washington 25, D. C.
Dear Mr. Minnicho
25X1A
has told me of the questions raised at today's
White House Staff briefing, and I believe the attached papers
may be of some assistance to you.
I feel that any short answer to such a complex question as
EDC may well stand some amplification. If you agree, Governor
Adams may be interested in seeing a more complete statement of
EDC prospects also attached hereto.
HUNTINGTON D. SHELDON
Document No,
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Approved For Release 2005/06/0>lQ:RAP91 T01 172R000400090006-4
 SECRET
Approved For Release 2005/06/08 : CIA-RDP91 T01 172R000400090006-4
THE OUTLOOK FOR EDC
Of the six signatories of the EDC treaty only the French and
Italian governments have not yet ratified, and both the Laniel and
Scelba governments seem intent on bringing EDC to a vote in their
respective parliaments in the coming months. The crux of the re-
maining problem is whether either is capable of doing so without
provoking a lengthy political crisis which would .kill the treaty.
Most Frenchmen now accept the inevitability of German rearma-
ment and there is probably a majority for EDC in the National Assembly.
The government expects to meet the main ratification precondition by
achieving a Saar settlement with Chancellor Adenauer before 18 May.
This will be difficult to accomplish without American and British pressure.
While the government plans to request the assembly's steering committee
to schedule debate on EDC for 25 May, without definite assurance of a
Saar settlement the committee may balk. In any event, ratification depends
on the Socialist Party offsetting defections in the government parties caused
by the growing anti-EDC campaign which was highlighted by the Marshal
Tuin affair. While Laniel and Bidault have been proceeding on the assump-
tion that Mollet can obtain a disciplined vote by the Socialist assembly bloc,
a majority of the Socialist deputies are on record objecting to the enforce-
ment of party discipline on this issue.
When the assembly reconvenes on 4 May the Gaullists will attempt to
postpone debate and might even bring about the government's downfall, with
a resulting critical delay. A more serious threat would be a Communist
offer at Geneva to end the Indochina war in exchange for French rejection
of EDC. In any event, procedural delays and the desire to defer final action
until the general tenor of the Geneva conference is evident are likely to post-
pone the debate until Tune,
The EDC draft treaty was presented to the Italian parliament on 6 April,
but is expected to remain in committee for from four to six months in view
of previous parliamentary business and the August recess. The government
parties are solidly behind the treaty but are maintaining their precarious
majority in both houses only with difficulty. Of the opposition parties, the
Monarchists are currently vacillating, but may support EDC, particularly
if there is a favorable Trieste settlement. Providing France ratifies the
treaty, its eventual passage by the Italian parliament is likely, but by a
thin margin.
Approved For Release 2005/06/08 : CIA-RDP91 T01 172R000400090006-4
SECRET
 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/06/08 : CIA-RDP91 T01 172R000400090006-4
Approved For Release 2005/06/08 : CIA-RDP91 T01 172R000400090006-4
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