SOUTHWEST ASIA: TRANSPORTATION AND PROCESSING OF OPIUM PRODUCTS ALONG THE AFGHAN-PAKISTANI BORDER

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CIA-RDP91T01115R000200050002-7
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27
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December 28, 2016
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December 8, 2010
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2
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Publication Date: 
March 1, 1985
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REPORT
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Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91TO1115R000200050002-7 Directorate of Intelligence Pakistani Border Secret Southwest Asia: Transportation and Processing of Opium Products Along the Afghan- Secret IA 85-10005 March 1985 44 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91TO1115R000200050002-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91TO1115R000200050002-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91TO1115R000200050002-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91TO1115R000200050002-7 Intelligence 25X1 Pakistani Border Southwest Asia: Transportation and Processing of Opium Products Along the Afghan- 25X1 The authors of this paper are a Office of Imagery Analysis, a 25X1 Analytic Support Group. Comments and queries are welcome and may be directed to the Chief, Economic Resources Division, OIA 25X1 25X1 Secret 1A 85-10005 March 1985 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91TO1115R000200050002-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91TO1115R000200050002-7 Summary lnlurmai,on aiail- ahlc ai of / Oclohir nas uwcrl in this rcporl. Southwest Asia: Transportation and Processing of Opium Products Along the Afghan-Pakistani Border) The mountain trails crisscrossing the Afghan-Pakistani border are a key link in the Southwest Asian heroin trade, the leading source of heroin for the United States and Western Europe. These pack- animal caravan trails provide traffickers in Pakistan-where opium production has fallen during the last five years-with ready access to major opium supplies in Afghanistan, which now account for a sig- nificant portion of the region's surplus opium. Current Government of Pakistan interdiction efforts directed against Afghan opium shipments entering the North-West Frontier Province are limited and ineffective. The principal Pakistani agency respon- sible for border trail interdiction, the Customs Service, lacks the manpower and the transportation and communication resources to effectively deter opium smuggling. Moreover, the Pakistani gov- ernment has relied on routine inspections at customs checkpoints along major North-West Frontier Province roads as its principal deterrent to narcotics smuggling in the region, and smugglers have circumvented most checkpoints simply by taking alternate routes. Afghanistan has made little progress in controlling the production and trafficking of narcotics: the Soviets have taken only limited action against Afghan opium smugglers, and Soviet efforts to control insurgent cross-border movements have only temporarily disrupted the opium trade. Secret /A 85-10005 March 1985 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91TO1115R000200050002-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91TO1115R000200050002-7 This study identifies key smuggling routes and trail choke points, and both maps and provides a rank-order listing of the 164 cross-border routes. Secret iv 1A 85-10005 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91TO1115R000200050002-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91TO1115R000200050002-7 Contents Page Summary Opium Production in the Afghan-Pakistani Border Region 4 Pakistan's North-West Frontier Province: The Wholesale Opium Market 4 Opium Smuggling Routes Across the Afghan-Pakistani Border 6 Characteristics of Geographic Border Zones 10 Network Analysis of Border Trails 10 Impact of the Afghan Insurgency on Narcotics Production in the Golden Crescent 13 Prospects for Interdiction Along the Afghan-Pakistani Border 13 Appendix Ranking of Narcotics Trafficking Across the Afghan-Pakistani Border 17 V Secret /A 85-10005 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91TO1115R000200050002-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91TO1115R000200050002-7 Secret Southwest Asia: Transportation and Processing of Opium Products Along the Afghan-Pakistani Border The Golden Crescent of Southwest Asia, which includes the opium-growing areas of Iran, Af- ghanistan, and Pakistan (figure 1), is the world's largest source of opium. Southwest Asia emerged as a leading supplier of opium in the late 1970s, when eradication efforts in Mexico and drought in Southeast Asia decreased the availability of opium from those regions Southwest Asian opium production was estimated at 560 to 830 metric tons in 1984.1 Most of-this opium is consumed in Iran, Afghanistan, Paki- stan, and India by opium smokers and a rising number of heroin addicts. Less than 15 percent of the crop-perhaps no more than 100 tons an- nually-is refined into heroin, producing approximately 10 tons of injectable heroin hydrochloride. This 10 tons of injectable heroin is enough to satisfy almost all of Western Europe's illicit heroin consumption, and roughly half of the heroin demand in the United States. Most Southwest Asian opium destined for US and European markets is grown in the border areas of northeastern Afghanistan and northwest- ern Pakistan. Most of this harvested opium is shipped along overland routes to wholesalers in the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP). This raw opium is mostly sold to traffickers in Paki- stan for processing in nearby laboratories, predominantly centered in and around the NWFP villages of Landi Kotal, Bara, and Darra. The primary products of these labs are heroin base and injectable heroin (heroin hydrochloride) (figure 2). Most processed heroin is shipped from the NWFP by car or truck to major traffickers in Karachi and Lahore. From there it is sent- primarily via commercial airlines and ocean freighters-to markets in the Middle East, Europe, and North America. Traditional smug- gling routes through Iran, Turkey, and the Medi- terranean littoral are still used, but increased sur- veillance at ports and the search for new markets are causing traffickers to shift to other routes through India and Africa. During the last five years, low opium prices and government crop control measures have caused a decline in Pakistani opium production, and NWFP wholesalers have become increasingly dependent on opium grown in the neighboring Afghan provinces of Nangarhar and Konarha. Raw opium from these provinces-as well as significant amounts of heroin base-is easily smuggled into Pakistan by pack-animal caravans, along trails crossing the Afghan-Pakistani border. This report, usin network modeling, identifies the key border trails and passes most heavily used for smuggling Afghani- stan's 1984 export opium crop to the NWFP. It also discusses opium wholesaling and heroin processing in the region, evaluates current border trail interdiction measures, examines the impact of the Afghan insurgency on narcotics production in the Golden Crescent, and assesses the pros- pects for future interdiction efforts along the Afghan-Pakistani border Secret IA 85-10005 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91TO1115R000200050002-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91TO1115R000200050002-7 Figure 1 The Golden Crescent: Poppy Cultivation Areas and Smuggling Routes Soviet Union to Europe by air Sri -kgopka OLOMBB Heroin-smuggling route Heroin laboratories o-. Opium- smuggling route Opium -growing area to Africa MOGADISHU Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91TO1115R000200050002-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91TO1115R000200050002-7 Secret Figure 2 Opium Refining Process and Products Intermediate Products Finished Products Crude Morphine Base (Number 1 Heroin) Dry or Prepared Opium Consumed in Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan and exported to other Middle Eastern and South Asian countries Morphine Sulfate Crude Heroin Base (Number 2 Heroin) Pure Heroin or Heroin Hydrochloride; Injectable Heroin (Number 4 Heroin) To Europe and North America Smoking Heroin (Number 3 Heroin) To Iran, India, and Europe Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91TO1115R000200050002-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91TO1115R000200050002-7 Opium Production in the Afghan-Pakistani Border Region Opium has been grown for centuries in the Gold- en Crescent, primarily to satisfy regional opium demand. For many tribesmen, it is their only cash crop. Production is concentrated in those areas where government control is weak. In both Afghanistan and Pakistan, the Pathans, or Pushtuns, are the major tribal group involved in opium cultivation, smuggling, wholesaling, and refining. Independent Pathan farmers typically grow opium poppies in small fields, averaging only 0. 1 hectare in size (figure 3); the crop is planted from October through December, and the opium gum is harvested in April and May. Most of the opium gum produced by Pathan farmers is sold to local opium merchants, who in turn sell it to major regional wholesalers Opium production in Pakistan peaked in 1979, when a record 700 to 800 tons of opium gum was harvested. Pakistani production has declined significantly in the 1980s, the result. of a glutted opium market and a 1979 ban by the govern- ment on opium poppy cultivation. Almost all of Pakistan's opium is grown in the NWFP, and the threat of eradication appears to be forcing opium farmers to move to more remote areas. 1984 opium pro- duction in the NWFP is estimated at only 40 to 50 tons, with most cultivation occurring in Dir and Gadoon Districts and in Mohmand, Bajaur, and Malakand Agencies. Afghanistan is a leading surplus opium producer in Southwest Asia. Field sources reported that be- tween 1977 and 1982 production ranged between 200 and 300 tons, and that it declined only slightly after the Soviet invasion in December 1979. According to limited Drug Enforcement Admininstration (DEA) human source reporting, a record 400 to 575 tons of opium was produced Afghanistan's principal poppy-growing areas are in Nangarhar and Konarha Provinces, directly across the border from Pakistan's NWFP. These two provinces were responsible for approximately 50 percent of Afghanistan's total opium produc- tion in 1984. Pakistan's North-West Frontier Province: The Wholesale Opium Market Opium bound for the NWFP from Afghanistan is usually transported, in vehicles or on pack ani- mals, from the growing areas to villages near the Pakistani border. These villages-nota- bly Towr Kham, Kama Daka, and Cob], near the Khyber Pass-serve as staging areas where the opium is transferred to pack-animal cara- vans. From the villages, these caravans transport the raw opium by long-established and well- protected smuggling routes across the border into Pakistan (figure 4). Once inside Pakistan, the opium is transferred to another pack-animal caravan or to small trucks for delivery to major NWFP wholesalers. Small amounts of opium are also smuggled across the border at Towr Kham by vehicle, along the only paved highway linking northeastern Afghanistan with Pakistan's NWFP Most raw opium produced in the NWFP, and most of the opium shipped to the NWFP from Afghanistan's Nangarhar and Konarha Provinces, is purchased by Pakistani opium wholesalers, who operate principally from small business establishments located in bazaars throughout the NWFP. These bazaars have long been the centers of commerce for the region, promoting trading of food and clothing as well as contraband items such as arms, ammunition, and currency. Although there are hundreds of bazaars throughout the NWFP, raw opium is sold chiefly at bazaars in the villages of Landi Kotal, Bara, and Darra. Most opium wholesalers in the NWFP operate independently of major trafficking organizations. According to DEA reporting, there may be more than 50 major wholesalers in Land] Kotal alone. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91TO1115R000200050002-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91T01115R000200050002-7 Secret Figure 4 Opium Caravan in Dry Streambed Near the Afghan-Pakistani Border, April 1982 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91T01115R000200050002-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91TO1115R000200050002-7 Opium supplies arriving from the growing areas are typically stockpiled in small warehouses near the bazaars. DEA sources report that whole- salers.often have at least 4 tons of opium on hand and normally deal in quantities of 1 ton or more. The NWFP's wholesalers sell most of their supplies to local heroin refining laboratory operators, who convert the raw opium to mor- phine base, heroin base, or injectable heroin hydrochloride. Frequently wholesalers in the NWFP also operate refining labs Heroin Production in the North-West Frontier Province Heroin refining began on a large scale in the NWFP in the early 1980s, in response to a decline in prices for raw opium and the 1979 Government of Pakistan (GOP) ban on opium poppy cultivation.' Despite efforts by the GOP to halt the operations of laboratories, which resulted in the surrender of processing equipment from some 41 laboratories in 1982 and 1983, heroin processing continues in the NWFP, espe- cially in and around the villages of Landi Kotal, Bara, and Darra. Although there are no reliable estimates of the number of these labs, recent US Embassy reporting indicates that Pakistani heroin labs produced a total of some 6 tons of morphine base, heroin base, and injectable heroin in 1983. Approximately 4 tons of heroin was consumed in the United States in 1983; Western Europe's 1983 consumption is estimated at roughly 6 tons. Most heroin labs in the NWFP process raw opium to crude heroin base, but because the profit potential of refined heroin is so much greater, we believe the number of labs converting opium to injectable heroin has increased steadily in the 1980s. Heroin labs in Pakistan are usually small and crudely constructed, and are often set up in existing buildings in outlying farm com- pounds (figure 5) and villages.' These labs are typically run by one owner with five to six helpers. Most such labs are capable of producing 6 to 10 kilograms of heroin base daily. During the last few years, as government enforce- ment in Pakistan has been stepped up, heroin labs have also been established in the Afghan countryside, where neither the government nor the Soviets exercise effective narcotics control or enforcement activities. According to long-time reliable DEA sources, at least 40 heroin labs were operating in Afghanistan's Nangarhar Province in 1983. These labs are reportedly similar in appearance and operation to Pakistani labs, and most of them produce heroin base rather than injectable heroin. We believe that heroin labs are probably also operating in Konarha Province, the other major source of Afghan opium in the bor- der region. Most Afghan-produced heroin base is exported to the NWFP for final processing to injectable heroin; some is shipped to Iranian markets. DEA and other reports indicate that some Afghan heroin base is also sold to both Afghan insurgents and Soviet troops. Opium Smuggling Routes Across the Afghan- Pakistani Border The Afghan-Pakistani border is long, mountain- ous, and relatively easy to cross undetected. For centuries tribal groups have routinely crossed the border between Afghanistan's Nangarhar and Konarha Provinces and Pakistan's NWFP, using a multiplicity of mountain trails. They cross the border to trade, look for work, visit relatives, and move their herd animals to winter Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91TO1115R000200050002-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91TO1115R000200050002-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91TO1115R000200050002-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91TO1115R000200050002-7 grazing areas--and opium smugglers, as well as Afghan refugees and insurgents, travel across the border along the same routes. Cross-border movements in this region are difficult to monitor because of the border's great length, the large number of trails, and the rugged terrain (figures 6 and 7). The trails are typically steep and narrow, and often follow deep ravines, ridgelines, and streambeds. Trail passes are frequently blocked by snow during the winter months Afghan narcotics smugglers can choose from a multitude of routes to move their supplies to the NWFP. A 1983 study identified about 85 major border trails connecting Afghanistan's Nangarhar and Konarha Provinces with Pakistan's NWFP.a Figure 6 Trail Across Afghan-Pakistani Border, Hindu Kush Mountains, April 1982 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91TO1115R000200050002-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91TO1115R000200050002-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91TO1115R000200050002-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91TO1115R000200050002-7 Characteristics of Geographic Border Zones Border trails in this region of Southwest Asia traverse four distinct geographic zones, compris- ing two mountain ranges-the Hindu Kush and the Safed Koh-and two hill environments, the Khyber Hills and the open barren hills north of the Kabul River (figure 9). Border trails in each of these zones are distinguished by sev- eral geographic characteristics (see table): ? Hindu Kush Mountains. Trails traversing the Hindu Kush have moderate slopes, and trail passes average 2,500 meters in altitude. The northernmost trails are often impass- able between November and April due to snow cover. This zone has the most trails-73- and the most trails in relatively good con- dition5-30-of the four geographic zones in the border region. ? Hills North of the Kabul River. Trails in this geographic zone have gentler slopes and lower passes than trails in other zones. Most trails are open year-round, but are in poor condition. ? Khyber Hills. Khyber Hills trails are steeply sloped, and many wind through hills along deep ravines. This geographic zone has the most trails per kilometer-25 trails over a 52-kilometer stretch of the border. ? Safed Koh Range. Travel along the steeply sloped Safed Koh trails is often difficult and hazardous. Passes average 3,400 meters in alti- tude, and the westernmost trail passes are often blocked by snow between January and June. This geographic zone has the fewest trails_ and most trails are in poor condition. Network Analysis of Border Trails To identify the routes most likely used to trans- port opium from major growing areas in Afghani- stan to the distribution centers in Pakistan's NWFP, we developed a network model to assess trails in each of the four geographic border zones.6 This model is designed to identify the routes most likely used by opium smugglers, and to estimate the relative quantities of opium crossing the border in the four different zones. Using this network model, we examined the 164 trails identified in this study to determine the major routes probably used to transport the 1984 opium harvest to Pakistan. For each of these 164 trails, we considered three factors: the total distance of travel from Afghan growing areas to Pakistani distribution centers; the difficulty of the trails, in terms of slope and condition; and snow coverage in the trail passes from April through September, when most opium is transported across the border Several assumptions are inherent in our network analysis. First, the opium-growing areas consid- ered in this study are located in Nangarhar and Konarha Provinces; these areas are believed to account for most of the opium cultivated in eastern Afghanistan and exported to Pakistan's NWFP. Second, the villages of Landi Kotal, Bara, and Darra are assumed to be the major centers for opium distribution in the NWFP. Third, the model assumes that traffickers prefer the shortest, most easily traversed routes from the growing areas to the major opium markets. The factors of distance to distribution centers and trail difficulty are equally weighted in our analysis. In some instances a trafficker may have to choose between an easy but longer route and a shorter but more difficult one. The relative im- portance attached to distance versus difficulty is likely to -vary among traffickers, but the model suggests that the set of preferred routes is not ap- preciably altered by changing the relative weights of these two factors Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91TO1115R000200050002-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91TO1115R000200050002-7 Secret Figure 9 Geographic Zones and Flow of Opium Across the Afghan-Pakistani Border Golden Crescent Opium-growing area o 5yo `KABUL NORTH- WEST FRONTIER. PAKISTAN NANGAHAR KamaOhlka Selected opium-growing area in Afghanistan Opium wholesale center Major border regions Hindu Kush Mountains Hills North of Kabul River Khyber Hills Sated Koh Range Province-level boundary (first-level admin.) District/agency boundary (third-level admin.) Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91TO1115R000200050002-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91T01115R000200050002-7 Characteristics of Trails Across the Afghan-Pakistani Border of Border Trails (kilometers) Hindu Kush 163 73 Mountains Open Barren 52 28 Hills North of the Kabul River Sated Koh Range Snow coverage is a major hindrance on border trails traversing mountain passes, and it is assumed that traffickers will not cross a snow- covered pass if an alternate route is available. This assumption has little appreciable effect on our final assessment, however, because passes that are frequently closed by snow are usually on trails judged undesirable because of their length or difficulty To determine which of the 164 cross-border routes are most likely preferred by opium smug- glers, we used our network model to assess all possible routes from the growing areas in Afgan- istan to the major distribution centers in Pakistan's NWFP. The paths from each growing area are weighted according to the amount of opium produced in that area, pro uc ton weights and applying these weights to the assessment of the 164 paths-by distance to distribution centers, difficulty, and pass condi- tions-we established a network-model ranking of border trails, indicating which trails are most likely to carry the greatest amounts of opium from Afghanistan into the NWFP. The appendix to this report provides a rank-order listing of the 164 cross-border trails examined. Number of Number of Percentage of Trails Trails Trails (per kilometer) in Good in Good Condition Condition The ranking established in this network analysis reveals that most opium entering Pakistan's NWFP probably moves along trails crossing the Khyber Hills and the Safed Koh Range, both on the borders of Afghanistan's Nangarhar Prov- ince, where opium poppy cultivation is heaviest. Trails in both of these geographic border zones represent the shortest and most direct routes to the major distribution centers in the NWFP. The Khyber Hills zone has more trails per kilometer than any other border zone, and while Safed Koh trails are steep, their proximity to both growing areas and distribution centers overrides this disadvantage. Based on our network model, approximately 50 percent of eastern Afghanistan's 1984 export opi- um production probably crossed the border into Pakistan along Khyber Hills trails, while 40 percent was most likely carried on the steeper Sated Koh Range trails. The most heavily used trails are those leading from the Afghan border settlements of Towr Kham, Kama Daka, and Cobi, suggesting that these settlements are major caravan staging areas. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91T01115R000200050002-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91TO1115R000200050002-7 Some 10 percent of opium exported to the NWFP from eastern Afghanistan probably flowed from northern Konarha Province across the Hindu Kush Mountains into Dir District in the northern NWFP. The difficulty of trails cross- ing the border in this area and the distance from Dir to the major distribution centers makes this region far less desirable to smugglers moving opi- um across the Afghan-Pakistani border. Probably less than 1 percent of eastern Afghanistan's ex- port opium crossed the border into Pakistan along trails through the open barren hills north of the Kabul River. Although these trails are relatively easy to traverse, we believe that opium smugglers use them infrequently-as the model reveals-because they involve additional river crossings and because they are not the most direct routes from the growing areas to the opium distribution centers in the NWFP. Impact of the Afghan Insurgency on Narcotics Production in the Golden Crescent We estimate that Afghan opium production de- clined slightly immediately after the Soviet inva- sion in 1979. The invasion reduced the supply of local labor available for opium cultivation: a large portion of the population fled to Pakistan, and many of those who remained diverted their attention to the conflict with government forces. During the past few years, however, Afghan opium production has returned to former levels. The labor supply available for opium cultivation has stabilized as the flow of Afghan farmers from traditio areas to Pakistan has slackened7L' refugees also cross back into Afghanistan temporarily to help plant and harvest the opium crop. Although the Soviets and the Afghan government are concerned about growing drug abuse among their troops, lack of manpower and preoccu- pation with the. insurgency have limited their actions against opium cultivation and processing. Moreover, farmers and heroin lab operators are relatively immune to government enforcement actions, because most opium cultivation and processing occurs in areas of eastern Afghanistan that are controlled by the insurgent forces (figure 10). Opium cultivation continues even in areas occupied by the Afghan and Soviet armies, and we have observed opium poppy fields left undis- turbed near Soviet military installations. The Soviet and Afghan armies have had only an indirect impact on opium caravans traveling across the border, through their efforts to control cross-border movements by insurgents. These actions-including frequent helicopter strafing operations and the mining of border trails-have disrupted cross-border travel only temporarily. Because there are so many border trails, helicop- ter strafing is a hit-and-run operation, and normal travel resumes as soon as the strafing stops. Mined trails have also presented few prob- lems for traffickers, as the insurgents have quickly learned to disarm mines, and travelers- warned by area residents-have often avoided mined trails simply by taking alternate routes. Afghan insurgent leaders have denied that the Mujahideen are involved in the production and trafficking of opium. The insurgents have not, however, inter- fered with opium poppy cultivation in the north- eastern provinces. They have also permitted heroin labs to operate in their areas of control, and lab operators do contribute some funds to the Mujahideen cause. Prospects for Interdiction Along the Afghan- Pakistani Border In Pakistan, the GOP has made little effort to in- terdict Afghan opium entering the NWFP along its northwestern border. Moreover, the principal GOP agency responsible for patrolling the border region-the Customs Service-has only 30 mobile units operating in the area, and most of these units lack the transportation and communications equinment needed for effective interdiction. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91TO1115R000200050002-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91TO1115R000200050002-7 Figure 10 Afghan Insurgent and Soviet Forces in Opium-Producing Areas of Afghanistan Secret 14 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91TO1115R000200050002-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91T01115R000200050002-7 Secret Hampered by inadequate resources, the GOP has relied on routine inspections at customs check- points-one on the border, but most along major roads leaving the NWFP-as the principal means for narcotics interdiction in the region. However, traffickers have avoided most checkpoints simply by moving off the main roads to the mangy small roads and trails in the border area. Prospects for improvement in Pakistan's inter- diction effort are not good. The identification of key smuggling routes and trail choke points, as presented in this study, could aid in targeting interdiction efforts to the most heavily used smuggling routes, but we believe that the GOP is unlikely to initiate a large-scale border interdiction program in the NWFP. Such a program would require the long-term presence of a significant GOP force, and we do not believe the GOP has sufficient resources to make such a commitment. Moreover, an increase in troop presence could lead to hostilities between govern- ment forces and the autonomous tribal groups that inhabit most of the border region. The GOP is likely to avoid such a confrontation, espe- cially given the instability of the region. Even if the GOP were to conduct a vigorous bor- der trail interdiction campaign, we believe its chances for stemming the flow of Afghan opium into the NFWP would be slight. As this study indicates, the sheer number of trails along the Afghan-Pakistani border represents the greatest obstacle to successful enforcement. This factor has already thwarted concerted Soviet military efforts to restrict cross-border movements by Afghan insurgents. Moreover, smuggling has been a way of life in the Golden Crescent for centuries; tolerance for smuggling is high, and traffickers are extremely adept at eluding govern- ment authorities. Given the difficulty of border trail interdiction, the GOP may initiate indirect measures to combat the Afghan opium traffic across its borders. These measures could include arrests of known major NWFP traffickers and large-scale closings of NWFP heroin labs. However, only the sustained application of such measures over a long period of time could significantly curtail the Afghan opium trade. In the near term, South- west Asia will probably increase its regional output of heroin, because the production of surplus opium in Afghanistan is expected to offset gains made in reducing Pakistani produc- tion. For the foreseeable future, Pakistan's NWFP will remain the center of the Southwest Asian heroin trade Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91T01115R000200050002-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91TO1115R000200050002-7 Secret Appendix Ranking of Narcotics Trafficking Routes Across the Afghan-Pakistani Border Rank Route Pass Pass Number" Number' Name` Geographic Zone Rank Route Pass Pass Number' Number' Name` Geographic Zone I 38 30 23 28 24 Musatal Kandao Safed Koh Range 2 39 31 Khyber Hills 24 29 24 Musatal Sated Koh Range 3 62 53 Khyber Hills Kandao 4 33 Safcd Koh Range 25 40 32 Khyber Hills 5 34 Safed Koh Range 26 57 48 Khyber Hills 6 43 Khyber Hills 27 70 61 Hills north of 7 45 35 Khyber Hills Kabul River 8 36 29 Safed Koh Range 28 72 63 Hills north of 35 28 Cobi Safed Koh Range Kabul River Kandao 29 40 32 Khyber Hills 10 37 28 Cobi Kandao 30 61 52 Khyber Hills 31 21 17 Nang Stara Safcd Koh Range Khyber Hills Kandao 12 30 25 Bazar Kandao 32 24 20 Salemai Kandao Safcd Koh Range 13 31 25 Bazar Kandao 21 Darmu Drah Safed Koh Range 14 68 Hills north of Kabul River Kh}ber Hills Hills north of 15 27 23 Khandwala Kandao Kabul River 16 73 Hills north of Kabul River 36 68 59 Hills north of Kabul River 17 74 Hills north of Kabul River 37 77 68 Hills north of Kabul River 18 75 Hills north of Kabul River 38 78 69 Hills north of Kabul River Hindu Kush Mountains 39 93 84 Hindu Kush Mountains 20 94 85 Hindu Kush Mountains 40 101 92 Hindu Kush Mountains -'1 95 86 Hindu Kush Mountains Hindu Kush Mountains 32 26 Tabi Safed Koh Range 42 124 115 Hindu Kush Mountains Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91TO1115R000200050002-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91TO1115ROO0200050002-7 Ranking of Narcotics Trafficking Routes Across the Afghan-Pakistani Border (continued) Rank Route Pass Pass Geographic Rank Route Pass Pass Geographic Number' Number' Nance` Zone Number" Number'' Name` Zone Hindu Kush 64 123 114 Hindu Kush Mountains Mountains 44 91 8' Hindu Kush 65 144 135 Hindu Kush Mountains Mountains 45 49 40 Khyber Hills 66 1 16 107 Hindu Kush 46 135 126 Ghakhai Hindu Kush Mountains Pass Mountains 67 119 110 Hindu Kush 47 148 139 Hindu Kush Mountains Hindu Kush 48 147 138 Kaga Pass Hindu Kush Mountains Mountains Hindu Kush 49 159 150 Tripaman Kandao Hindu Kush Mountains Mountains Hindu Kush 5)) 3 2 Gawai Safed Koh Range Mountains Tangai 71 110 101 Hindu Kush 51 I I Kirka Safcd Koh Range Mountains Tangai 71 5 4 Safcd Koh Range 5-1 4 3 Zarai Safed Koh Range 73 6 5 Spinkaii Khande Kandao Raghai Tangai 74 7 6 Rishak Kandao Safed Koh Range 75 8 7 Safcd Koh Range 54 19 15 Safed Koh Range 76 9 8 Shah Safed Koh Range 55 71 62 Hills north of Kabul River Hussaini Kandao 56 120 III Hindu Kush Mountains 77 10 9 Safcd Koh Range 78 II 10 Safcd Koh Range 57 108 99 Chartana Hindu Kush Pass Mountains 79 1? I I Agam Pass Safcd Koh Range 80 13 11 A am Pass Safed Koh Ran e 58 146 137 Mukha Pass Hindu Kush ' g " Mountains 81 14 1? Oghaz Kandao Safed Koh Range 59 18 14 Cora Tigga Safed Koh Range 8? 15 1 ? Oghaz Safcd Koh Range 60 157 148 Hindu Kush Kandao Mountains 83 16 12 Oghar Safcd Koh Range 61 155 146 Hindu Kush Kandao Mountains 84 17 13 Kot Safcd Koh Range 6_1 158 149 Loegram Hindu Kush Mohniand Pass Mountains Kandao 63 160 151 Binshai Hindu Kush 85 20 16 Pekhe Safed Koh Range Kandao Mountains Kandao Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91TO1115ROO0200050002-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91TO1115R000200050002-7 (continued) Rank Route Pass Pass Geographic Rank Route Pass Pass Geographic Number' Number' Name` Zone Number' Number' Name` Zone 86 22 18 Bajur Safed Koh Range 112 79 70 Hills north of Kandao Kabul River 87 23 19 Brekh Safed Koh Range 1 13 80 71 Hills north of Muhammed Kabul River Kandao 1 14 81 72 Hills north of 88 16 22 Chawatkhai Safed Koh Range Kabul River Kandao 1 15 8? 73 Hills north of 90 44 36 Khyber Hills 116 83 74 Hills north of 91 46 37 Khyber Hills Kabul River 91 47 38 Khyber Hills 1 17 84 75 Hills north of Kabul River 93 50 41 Khyber Hills 118 85 76 Hills north of 94 51 42 Khyber Hills Kabul River 95 5? 43 Khyber Hills 1 19 86 77 Hills north of 96 53 44 Khyber Hills Kabul River 97 54 45 Khyber Hills 120 87 78 Hindu Kush Mountains 98 55 46 Khyber Hills 99 56 47 Khyber Hills 121 88 79 Hindu Kush Mountains 100 58 49 Khyber Hills 122 89 80 Hindu Kush I01 59 50 Khyber Hills Mountains 102 60 51 Khyber Hills 123 92 83 Hindu Kush 103 63 54 Hills north of Mountains Kabul River 124 96 87 Hindu Kush 104 64 55 Hills north of Mountains Kabul River 125 97 88 Hindu Kush 105 66 57 Hills north of Mountains Kabul River 116 98 89 Shaunkrai Hindu Kush 106 67 58 Hills north of I'ass Mountains Kabul River 127 10? 93 Hindu Kush 107 69 60 Hills north of Mountains Kabul River 1-18 103 94 Goraprai Hindu Kush 108 70 61 Hills north of Pass Mountains Kabul River 119 104 95 Hindu Kush 109 71 62 Hills north of Mountains Kabul River 1 i0 105 96 Spina Tsuka Hindu Kush 110 72 63 Hills north of Pass Mountains Kabul River 131 106 97 Hindu Kush III 76 67 Hills north of Kabul River Mountains Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91TO1115R000200050002-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91TO1115R000200050002-7 Ranking of Narcotics Trafficking Routes Across the Afghan-Pakistani Border (continued) Rank Route Pass Pass Geographic Rank Route Pass Pass Geographic Number' Number" Name` Zone Number' Number" Nance` Zone 1 107 98 Pishio Hindu Kush 149 133 124 Hindu Kush Kandao Mountains Mountains 133 109 100 Hindu Kush 150 134 125 Hindu Kush Mountains Mountains 134 III 102 Hindu Kush 151 136 127 Hindu Kush Mountains Mountains 135 113 104 Hindu Kush 152 137 128 Hindu Kush Mountains Mountains 136 114 105 Nawa Pass Hindu Kush 153 138 129 Hindu Kush Mountains Mountains 137 115 106 Hindu Kush 154 139 130 Hindu Kush Mountains Mountains 138 117 108 Hindu Kush 155 140 131 Hindu Kush Mountains Mountains 139 118 109 Hindu Kush 156 141 132 Hindu Kush Mountains Mountains 140 121 112 Hindu Kush 157 142 133 Hindu Kush Mountains Mountains 141 125 116 Hindu Kush 158 143 134 Hindu Kush Mountains Mountains 142 126 117 Hindu Kush 159 153 144 Hindu Kush Mountains Mountains 143 127 118 Hindu Kush 160 154 145 Latwatai Hindu Kush Mountains Pass Mountains 144 128 119 Hindu Kush 161 155 146 Hindu Kush Mountains Mountains 145 129 1_'0 Hindu Kush 162 156 147 Hindu Kush Mountains Mountains 146 130 121 Hindu Kush 163 157 148 Hindu Kush Mountains Mountains 147 131 112 Hindu Kush 164 158 149 Loegram Hindu Kush Mountains Pass Mountains 148 132 123 Hindu Kush Mountains "A route number was assigned to each of the 164 trails exam- Most passes along the Afghan-Pakistani border do not have fined in our network analysis. Route numbers are keyed to recorded names, and many are actually long ridges, deep trails shown in figure 8. ravines, or dry streambeds. Some major routes are known b\ The 164 cross-border trails traverse a total of 151 mountain the names of the rivers whose beds they follow across the and hill passes. Sonic of these passes are crossed by more border. than one trail. Pass numbers are keyed to figure 8. Secret 20 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91TO1115R000200050002-7 Figure 8 Trails and Passes Along the Afghan-Pakistani Border i ,~iaEh.,, ? r ? Major opium bazaars. Opium poppy growing areas. Note: Red numbers denote passes. Black numbers denote trail routes. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08 : CIA-RDP91T01115R000200050002-7 ' GBmbep T,ini woY.rgi S 84L tvARE 6NdR 2,13 14,1 2 70. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08 : CIA-RDP91T01115R000200050002-7 I 48r1 64 125 2O,21 iRc' \~ TMr 64 7i \ n r ~ -29,30,32 /.. t I 9R 9F 97 9A..@1 \'i t, _ 22 _1i81 tG5 66-66 yep, g X5'4 N.. 3 64 } ~4L 43,45 / 38,40 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91TO1115R000200050002-7 Secret Secret Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/08: CIA-RDP91TO1115R000200050002-7