OSR LIST OF DEVELOPMENTS AND EVENTS SUBJECT TO PREDICTION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91M00696R001000100002-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 16, 2004
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: September 8, 1975
• Content Type: MF

Approved For Release 2005/r'ffA-RDP91 M00696R001000100002-3
8 September 1975
le
MEMORANDUM FOR: DD/OCI
SUBJECT OSR List of Developments and Events
Subject to Prediction
Listed below is a selected group of developments
or events that OSR had a hand in estimating, assessing
or predicting would or would not occur. The list is
certainly not all inclusive, but is intended to be
representative.
Date Event
1960-75 Soviet ICBM Force Deploy-
ment Projections
1962 Cuban Missile Crisis
Comments
See 25X
article in Studies
in Intelligence,
Overestimates and
Underestimates
Initial predictions
of offensive missile
deployment were
inaccurate
1962-70 Soviet Development and Both numbers and
Deployment of ABMs characteristics
were overstated
1964-70 Projections of Soviet Seel __1 articl&5
SSBN Force in Studies in Intel-
ligence. Predictions
ranged from good to
bad. CIA alone pre-
dicted the advent of
1965-70
the "Y" class.
Projections of Chinese
Strategic Nuclear Force
Validity
dictions
initial
of pre-
varied--
assessments
25
were rather accurate
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Comments
New Soviet Aircraft Agency estimated
Carrier that these vessels
would be for
helicopters. Assess-
ment was accurate
1966 Soviet SA-5 Deployment Accurately assessed
that this system
would be a SAM, not
an ABM. Pattern of
deployment accurately
predicted
1971
Soviet Invasion of Reported that forces
Czechoslovakia were ready to invade,
but did not predict
the precise date of
invasion
Possibility of Sino- Assessment that a
Soviet War major conflict would
not occur proved
accurate
India-Pakistan War
Military buildup
reported along with
judgment that war was
likely
1973 Mid-East October War Egyptian military
buildup reported,
but political judgment
on likelihood of war
was inaccurate.
Possibility of Soviet
intervention was
accurately assessed.
Outcome of war pre-
dicted.
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Date
Event
Comments
1974
Turkish Invasion of
Accurately predicted
Cyprus
1974
India's First Nuclear
Agency reported that
Test
India had the capability-
date of first test
not predicted
0
0
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Approved For Release 2005/01/18 : CIA-RDP91 M00696RO01000100002-3