NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE PRIORITIES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91M00696R000200040012-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Sequence Number: 12
• Content Type: MEMORANDUM FOR

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THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
Deputy for National Intelligence
1.2 n~~' 1077
MEMORANDUM FOR NATIONAL FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE BOARD
FROM: Robert R. Bowie
SUBJECT: National Intelligence Priorities
Attached for your information is a list of National Intel-
ligence Topics of Current Interest. The list reflects the
discussion of the Policy Review Committee (Intelligence) at its
meeting on 25 November on intelligence requirements and priorities.
It is expected that this list will be discussed further at a future
meeting of the PRC(I) for the purpose of assigning some relative
priority among the various topics.
Attachment:
As stated
Distribution:
Original Addressee
1 D/DCI/NI Chrono
d 1 NFAC Registry
1! SA/NIO Support Chrono
1 SA/NIO Support File
MFAC :12 Dec 77
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Now
NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE TOPICS OF CURRENT INTEREST
1. Will there be progress or a slowdown in the economic recovery
of the various advanced countries? With what effects on (a)
the situation and policies of these countries and (b) co-
operation or tensions among them?
2. How do the key advanced countries define their interests in
international trading and financial relations? How far are
they likely to attempt, and to be able, to support or frus-
trate US policies? With what impact on Western economic
recovery and on policy toward the less developed countries?
What leverage has the US?
3. How will Japan and the West European countries react to
impending US ground force withdrawals from South Korea?
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6. What are the attitudes and intentions of key West European
states toward major political and security issues, including
relations with the USSR, SALT, MBFR and cruise missiles and
toward U.S. initiatives on them? How do these states per-
25X1
ceive the roles they should play, and how does this shape
their foreign policies?
8. Is there anything developing that could substantially affect
the advanced countries' relations with the US--something on
the order of an oil supply or international financial crisis?
The USSR and Eastern Europe
1. What are the attitudes of the key Soviet leaders toward the
US? How do they assess US foreign policy, its objectives and
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tactics, and the US' ability to pursue its objectives? What
key factors underlie their assessments? In which areas does
the US have leverage? What developments on which issues could
substantially alter the current US-USSR relationship?
2. What are the guiding purposes of Soviet foreign and military
policy? Soviet policy toward the Middle East and Africa?
3. How do the Soviets perceive the strategic balance? What are
Soviet objectives, strategies, capabilities, and particularly
vulnerabilities for strategic warfare--e.g., the accuracy of
their intercontinental weapons, cruise missile, civil defense,
and a neutron bomb? For war in Europe?
4. What are the USSR's objectives on arms control issues, in-
cluding SALT, MBFR, CTB, the Indian Ocean, and non-proliferation?
What are the prospects for the succession in the leadership
6. What, and how severe, will be the economic pressures on, and
particularly the economic vulnerabilities of, the USSR over
the next two to three years--e.g., grain, energy, and the rate
of growth? What are the implications for Soviet relations
with the US, for East-West trade, and for the Soviet's domes-
tic cohesion and strategic posture?
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7. How is the ethnic/nationalities problem evolving within the
8. What are the military trends in the Warsaw Pact, including its
concepts, doctrines, and intentions? How do Pact capabilities
match its doctrines, with what implications for its strategy?
9. What economic pressures are building up in Eastern Europe, and
how severe will they become---particularly hard currency debt
problems and sources of raw material and energy? How much
latitude will the East European states have to seek economic
cooperation with the West? How will economic difficulties
affect domestic stability of the East European states,
particularly Poland? What will be the implications for the
cohesion and reliability of the Warsaw Pact?
10. What are the prospects in Yugoslavia after Tito dies? How
1. Does the PRC intend to seek military technology from the West?
If so, where? If the US were to be responsive, what would be
the effect on relations with USSR? How would non-communist
Asian states react?
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2. What are the attitudes and perceptions of the PRC's key
leaders, and how do they assess US purposes and capabilities?
3. What sort of relationship does the PRC seek with US, and what
will its leaders do to achieve it? What urgency does the PRC
attach to gaining control of Taiwan, and what means is it
prepared to employ?
4. How confident are Taiwan's leaders in their ability to main-
tain economic viability and security? What are the implica-
tions for their foreign and military policies?
5. What are the chances of a significant lessening of tension
between the USSR and China as the leaderships of these two
states change? For a more aggressive stance by either or
both? What might produce such a change?
Key Developing CountrieEl
1. What role in international affairs does each of the key
developing countries see itself playing? What are the main
emphases of its foreign policies?
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NW W
Less Developed Countries
1. Which less developed countries are likely to face crises in
the next six to nine months?
2. Where in Africa are the Soviets likely to attempt to exploit
regional instability?
3. Which less developed countries are likely to face debt re-
scheduling problems?
4.. What are the expectations of the countries of the Caribbean
for US aid? In which of these countries is there a serious
threat of a breakdown in law and order?
5. How do Cuban leaders perceive their country's world role?
What are their intentions vis-a-vis the US and in Africa,
especially in Ethiopia, Angola, and southern Africa?
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1. Human Rights: How do other nations perceive our human rights
policies? How far have they modified their own practices?
2. Nuclear Proliferation: What are the plans and policies
for the development of nuclear energy and weapons ofl
What are the
prospects for cooperation by the West European states on non-
proliferation? What leverage does the U.S. have in controlling
proliferation?
3. Energy: What are the likely policies of the oil producing
states, especially Saudi Arabia and Mexico, on pricing,
production, and expansion of capacity? What are the
probable effects and points of leverage for the consuming
countries?
4. Arms Transfers: What is the prospect that major arms
suppliers will cooperate in restraining their exports?
Has the effort to restrain arms transfers had any impact
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on regional balances or on the influence of actual or potential
supplier states? Report the details of specific arms transfers.
5. Transnational Terrorism: What are the prospects for increased
transnational terrorism, particularly against energy installa-
tions?
6. Law of the Sea: What are the attitudes of the key partici-
pants in the Law of the Sea Conference, particularly on the
deep sea bed issue?
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- What are the prospects for Soviet influence in the Middle
East? What are Soviets purposes and policies? What
factors will govern whether the Soviets behave construc-
tively or disruptively vis-a-vis peace negotiations?
- What is the military balance in the Middle East, includ-
ing the significance of Iraq and Libya?
- Is Islamic radicalism likely to become dominant in any
region of the Islamic world?
2. Korea: What are the incentives, constraints, and priorities
that govern North Korea's pursuit of reunification? Are the
prospects of war increasing or decreasing? What would be the
indications of a North Korean intent to attack?
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- What are the prospects for non-violent change in South
Africa? What factors will influence the outcome? What
role will the non-whites play in South Africa?
- How will the Rhodesian situation evolve? In case of a
settlement, what will be the major problems and prospects
of a new government?
5. Horn of Africa: What are Soviet objectives in the Horn of
Africa? How will the conflict there develop and with what
consequences for Soviet, Cuban, and US interests?
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7. Panama: What are the implications for the operation of the
Panama Canal and for US relations with Latin America if the
Canal Treaty is not ratified? What are the vulnerabilities of
the Canal?
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