PROSPECTS FOR THE CENTRAL AMERICAN SUMMIT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91B00874R000300230022-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 4, 2012
• Sequence Number: 22
• Publication Date: June 8, 1987
• Content Type: REPORT

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/20: CIA-RDP91B00874R000300230022-1
8 June 1987
Talking Points for ADDI's Briefing of HPSCI
Prospects for the Central American Summit
With only two weeks remaining before the Central American Summit set for
25-26 June in Guatemala, the Core Four appear unlikely to resolve their
significant differences over the Arias Peace Plan, raising prospects that the
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Costa Rican President Arias is increasingly_pessimistig-that the
democracies can reach a cagensus &his initiative.
-- The minor changes San Jose has made to the plan fall far short of
meeting Salvadoran and Hondurah concerns. Moreover, Arias is unlikely -
to make any changes in his plan that he believes Nicaragua would reject
out of hand, such as by allowing regional insurgents to receive aid
after the plan is signed.
_ A senior Guatemalan official told US officials in late April that the
should seek few changes in the Arias Plan in order to avoid
playing into Managua's hands.
Both Honduras and El Salvador have strong objections to the proposal and
fear Costa Rica and Guatemala will desert them at the summit.
-- They almost certainly will continue to insist privately on stron er
veri ica onroc-soke*i o e or e 1itqt14:1: wont., . in
amnesty and cease-fire negotiitions. They also(argue that Nicaragua
must-MdEfftize before external support to the insurgents is cut off.
Nicaragis maintaining maximum flexibility in its negotiating position
by aring receptive to the plan but withholding substantive comments.
-- President Ortega recently called the Arias Plan constructive. A Vice
Foreign Minister said Managua agrees with the plan in principle, but
the Sandinistas have not offered detailed comments.
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rE'ef4F-L
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-- Managua has refused numerous re
Ind has asked to delay the Forel
final plans for the-Eliiit.
uests from San Jose to discuss the plan
Nicaragua may try further to exploit Core Four disunity to its advantage
by introducing its own proposal at the summit.
-- Managua's plan apparently will repeat old proposals andsall for
renewed bjIiELIaJks with the US.
-- In our opinion,_nnma,is trying to string out the talks by insisting
that regional peace negotiations must eventuall involve:.ora
Grou caragua urged Mex co last month to arrange for the Contadora
mediators to attend the summit.
There is an outside chance that Nicara ua may put aside its reservations
about the democratic opening andof er :sign the agreement in hopes of
inflEqpglpgitheall_debolcpn ?br the -ant-i-=Sandiiyistap-,
-- Sandinista propaganda could then place the onus on Honduras and El
Salvador for holding up an agreement.
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Key Provisions of the Arias Peace Plan
Issue
Effective date
Verification
National reconciliation
Arms and troop
ceilings
External support for
insurgents
Military exercises
Foreign military/
security advisers
Foreign bases
Provisions
Upon signature by the five Central American countries.
Creates commission consisting of UN and OAS Secretaries General plus
Contadora and Support Group Foreign Ministers. Each country facing
armed insurgency forms negotiating group made up of representatives
from government, internal political opposition, Catholic Church, and
Inter-American Human Rights Commission. Within six months, Central
American presidents meet to evaluate progress.
Upon signature, parties in conflict in each country begin cease-fire. Each
government opens dialogue with all unarmed internal opposition groups
and institutes reforms to encourage pluralistic political system. Within 60
days, governments declare general amnesty for insurgents and political
prisoners; restore freedoms of association, assembly, and speech; and
guarantee free access to mass media.
During first six months of 1988, each government holds free elections to
choose representatives to new regional parliament. Subsequently, free
elections to be held for positions at all levels of government, according
to existing election schedules.
Within 60 days of signature, Central American governments begin
negotiations on control and reduction of weapons and military forces.
All external aid to insurgents in the region to end immediately.
Government reaffirm commitment not to provide safehaven or military
assistance to groups trying to destablize other countries.
Not covered.
Not covered.
Not covered.
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Central American Positions Regarding Arias Plan:
Costa Rica Accepts Opposes any substantive changes
Honduras Opposes as is Wants following changes:
? Both anti-Sandinista insurgents and the unarmed Nicaraguan
opposition included in initial dialogue with the Sandinistas.
? Cease fire and amnesty to be established by dialogue with insurgents.
? Cutoff of aid to insurgents occurs after amnesty and cease fire.
? Democratic elections in Nicaragua sooner than Arias Plan.
? Some Contadora provisions on security issues to be incorporated.
? Stronger verification measures, which include linking
implementation of the plan with national elections and restoration
of political rights in Nicaragua.
El Salvador Opposes as is
Shares most Honduran concerns about Arias Plan, but believes anti-
Sandinista rebels can be included in talks with Nicaraguan Government
only after they have agreed to disarm.
Worries arms control provisions could harm the Salvadoran counterin-
surgency effort.
Guatemala Supports as basis Initially opposed provision calling for dialogue with insurgents because
for Regional of opposition from military, but President Cerezo reportedly offering
Negotiations proposal which would allow guerrillas a role in cease fire talks.
Wants to prevent Nicaragua's isolation at peace talks while seeking to
promote own role as mediator.
Will not insist on democratization as intial step in negotiations.
Nicaragua Conditionally Uncomfortable with provisions on internal democratization, including
accepts eventual dialogue with armed opposition.
May offer a counterproposal that includes provision requiring Washington
to negotiate directly with Managua and will press to incorporate Arias
Plan within the Contadora process.
May accept plan as way to split Core Four and thwart renewed US
funding for insurgents.
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Meeting Site for Esquipulas Summit, June 25-26
Mexico
Caribbean
Sea
Gulf of Honduras
Logo de
de
Izabal
North
Pacific Ocean
SANitAIVADOR4
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ri
Salvador- 1;-'`J\
-...'/ .4:-..- ),, ?*--71,
/ 174/7:'
50 Kilometers . ?
(
Boundary representation is
not necessarily authoritative.
710516 (547180) 6-87
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Main Points of Nicaraguan Peace Proposal
A senior Sandinista official announced last month that
Nicaragua will present a peace proposal at the meeting of the
Central American presidents in Guatemala on 25-26 June.
Managua has provided few details and insists that its ideas are
not a substitute for Arias's plan. The key points include:
- Resumption of bilateral talks with the US, which were
suspended in 1984.
Discussion of legitimate US security interests in the region.
Agreement to a nonaggression treaty, with provisions for
verification.
Elimination of destabilizing actions.
A broad disarmament agreement.
A willingness to drop Nicaragua's suits before the World
Court against Costa Rica and Honduras if there is a
"political agreement" at the summit.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/20: CIA-RDP91B00874R000300230022-1