THE SINO-INDIAN BORDER DISPUTE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91B00874R000300190005-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 28, 2012
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: April 17, 1987
• Content Type: REPORT

Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved forRelease2012/12/20 : CIA-RDP91B00874R000300190005-5
17 April 1987
TALKING POINTS FOR THE ADDI
THE SINO-INDIAN BORDER DISPUTE
1. India and China are probably headed for a limited conflict this spring
or summer over their border. During the past year each side has taken
political and military steps the other considers provocative.
-- Beijing established a forward base in disputed territory on Wangdung
? Ridge last summer in response to the building of new Indian Army
installations along the disputed border in the Eastern sector.
-- New Delhi in December voted statehood for Arunachal Pradesh, territory
still under negotiation and claimed by Beijing.
2. The dispute in the east centers on the area overrun by China in 1962
and now the newly created Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh.
-- The Chinese recognize a line of control that lies south of the Wangdung
Ridge and well to the south of the British-drawn McMahon line. In 1962
the Chinese unilaterally withdrew to positions 20 kilometers north of
the line of control and warned New Delhi not to enter the buffer zone.
-- The Indians insist that the McMahon line defines their border and
refuse to accept the Chinese claims stemming from the 1962 conflict.
3. The Chinese have turned aside Indian requests for new negotiations
this spring and have told US officials that they have few options but to resume
patrolling the disputed area.
-- Beijing's reference to new patrolling--and a lack of interest in
immediate negotiations--suggests Beijing may choose to begin agressively
patrolling Indian-controlled areas near the Chinese outpost on Wangdung
Ridge to draw Indian troops into a provocation that China could use to
portray India as the aggressor.
-- The departure of the Chinese Ambassador from New Delhi last week sends
another signal of rising tensions,s but Beijing's plan to name a border
expert as the next Ambassador indicates China eventually hopes for a
negotiated settlement with New Delhi.
-- Indian Prime Minister Gandhi almost certainly would order an Indian
military response to possible Chinese provocations before he agrees to
talks. Gandhi cannot afford to preside over a repetition of India's
loss to China in 1962 or even be seen as capitulating to Chinese
pressure.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/20: CIA-RDP91B00874R000300190005-5
Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved forRelease2012/12/20 : CIA-RDP91B00874R000300190005-5 5X1
5. India has the upper hand militarily in the region, but ultimately
would lose its advantage if a conflict grew to general war.
-- Should a conflict escalate, however, Beijing's large military force of
over 4 million men and 5,000 fighter and bomber aircraft would allow
China to prosecute a several front war along the entire Sino-Indian
border--severely straining the resources of New Delhi's 1.5 million man
Army.
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Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/20: CIA-RDP91B00874R000300190005-5
Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/20: CIA-RDP91B00874R000300190005-5
Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/20: CIA-RDP91B00874R000300190005-5
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Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/20: CIA-RDP91B00874R000300190005-5
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Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/20: CIA-RDP91B00874R000300190005-5
Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/20: CIA-RDP91B00874R000300190005-5
Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/20: CIA-RDP91B00874R000300190005-5
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