15 JULY 1986 HPSCI BRIEFING

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91B00874R000100200001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 16, 2011
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: July 18, 1986
• Content Type: MEMO

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/09/16: CIA-RDP91 B00874R000100200001-9
18 July 1986
SUBJECT: 15 July 1986 HPSCI Briefing
CIA Briefers: DDI Kerr
Congressmen Present: Hamilton, Brown, Daniel, Dwyer,
Kastenmeier, McHugh, Stump, Ireland,
Hyde, Livingston, McEwen
Subjects Briefed:
USSR: Demarche to Pakistan
Regarding Nuclear Weapons
Develpment
South Africa: Impact of Sanctions
Against South Africa
Regional
Vulnerabilities to
South African
Imposed Sanctions
The ANC's Communist
Ties
Iran/Iraq:, Iran's Improving
Ground Forces
Mexico: Election Update
Financial Situation
Update
Questions Answered:
Will Mexican creditors
have to writeoff some
of the country's debt?
Rescheduling
will definitely
be necessary.
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SUBJECT: 15 July 1986 HPSCI Briefing
Stump
Did Moscow say it would Yes.
not tolerate Pakistan's
development of the bomb?
What are the implications Soviets can turn
of this threat? up the heat on
Pakistan, but
they really do
not have any
significant
leverage.
Do Communists dominate That is difficult
the ANC? to say, but there
are strong ties.
Does the Communist Party Yes.
of South Africa look to
Moscow for direction?
How many people on the About half.
Executive Committee of
the ANC are Communist?
Is unrest along the US/ It has been
Mexican border rising? rising recently,
but not to a
major extent.
How do the South African's They have been
stockpile so much oil? working on it for
15 years. Mostly
stored in above-
ground tanks,
some underground
storage.
What would happen if
South Africa imposed
sanctions against its
neighbors?
Could bring their
economies to a
halt. Only
limited risk for
South Africa.
Does South Africa act
as a broker for these
countries?
Yes, but in
addition South
Africa employs
many workers from
these countries.
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Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/09/16: CIA-RDP91 B00874R000100200001-9
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/09/16: CIA-RDP91 B00874R000100200001-9
SUBJECT: 15 July 1986 HPSCI Briefing
Would South Africa
actually apply such
sanctions?
Would the Soviets try to
take out Pakistan's
nuclear facilities?
Pakistan's possession of
a nuclear weapon would be
more of a threat to India?
Some Philippine
missionaries have been
kidnapped, do we know
who did it?
If the screws are
turned on South
Africa, it
probably would
resort to some
sanctions.
this and
concluded that
is not likely.
Will get back to
you.
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Ireland What is the latest
on Nicaragua?
What is the size of US
investment in South
Africa?
What is South Africa's
investment in the US?
Two interesting
developments.
Contras have been
increasingly
effective in the
central part of
the country,
while the
Sandanistas have
been more
aggressive in
moving troops
around.
About $13
billion.
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 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/09/16: CIA-RDP91 B00874R000100200001-9
SUBJECT: 15 July 1986 HPSCI Briefing
Hyde
Are we completely
dependent on any South
African commodities?
Any new developments in
Bolivia?
What's going on in Libya?
Any activity above the
Gulf of Sidra?
If South Africa falls in-
to the Soviet orbit,
would this be a major
problem for the US?
No, not
completely.
Chrome is
important.
Nothing I can
recall.
Qadhafi is trying
to rebuild his
image. The
presidents of
North and South
Yemen were in
Libya recently.
No significant
signs of unrest.
South Africa
definitely is
important to the
US.
Are key positions in the
ANC dominated by
Communists?
How do we know that
Marxist/Leninists won't
do the same thing to the
ANC that they have done
to political groups in
other countries?
When the race war in
South Africa starts, will
it spill over into the
US?
There are
Communists in
some positions.
The Communists
are very
effective; but
there are
uncertainties.
If the ANC ruled
South Africa,
Communists would
have a major
influence on the
government.
Don't know about
the latter point,
but a race war is
possible.
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SECRET
SUBJECT: 15 July 1986 HPSCI Briefing
What is the US strategy I'm afraid you're
for dealing with the ANC? asking the wrong
person.
What is Pakistan's nuclear They are capable
capability and what would of producing a
they do with a nuclear number of
weapon? weapons over the
next several
years. I don't
know the exact
number, perhaps a
The Indians also have
a nuclear weapon?
Have had one for
a while, maybe
ten years.
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Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/09/16: CIA-RDP91 B00874R000100200001-9
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/09/16: CIA-RDP91 B00874R000100200001-9
SUBJECT: 15 July 1986 HPSCI Briefing
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 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/09/16: CIA-RDP91 B00874R000100200001-9
SUBJECT: 15 July 1986 HPSCI Briefing
Dwyer
Any evidence of foreign There have been
advisors in Iran now? some in the past,
but recent
military advances
probably due to
internal
improvements in
the military.
McEwen No questions.
Followup:
At the close of the briefing, the DDI showed Congressman
Kastenmeier the NID of 15 July that included the latest
information we had on the missionaries kidnapped in the
Philippines. OEA provided additional analysis of the hostage-
taking that OCA telephonically relayed to the Committee on 17
July.
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Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/09/16: CIA-RDP91 B00874R000100200001-9