TALKING POINTS FOR THE ADDI ANGOLA: MILITARY SITUATION AND PROSPECTS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91B00874R000100140009-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 20, 2011
• Sequence Number: 9
• Publication Date: March 17, 1986
• Content Type: MISC

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Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/20: CIA-RDP91 B00874R000100140009-8
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17 March 1986
TALKING POINTS FOR THE ADDI
Angola: Military Situation and Prospects
The Angolan government--with Soviet and t--is completing
prep a ions or anot er ma 'or off ed at UNITA's stronghold in
s eas ern ngo a. The fighting likely will increase in the next month
or two as the weather becomes mor after the rains en is 'n '~
April.
-- The government currently is building up supplies and equipment,
deploying forces, and probing UNITA'_s defenses from forward
positions
in our view,
remains confi ent and realistic about
his staying power as a major threat to the Luanda regime.
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Elsewhere, UNITA guerrillas continue their intensified operations
-- In the northwest, the government holds the main towns but seems
There is a growing risk of a direct confrontation between South Africa and
Ancola's Soviet and Cuban supporters. For the first time; each side's
princiFal backers appear to be preparing for the possibility that they
will be drawn into the fighting.
attack were recently released in Zaire.
unable to dampen guerrilla actions in the smaller hamlets.
-- Early this month UNITA overran a diamond mine in the northeast,
e latest in a devastating campaign against t e iamon
industry. Some 200 ex-patriate hostages ,captured during the
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;;, Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/20: CIA-RDP91 B00874R000100140009-8
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/20: CIA-RDP91 B00874R000100140009-8
-- We be 1 i eve South Africa wi 11 i ntervenr - i Sav ir" ' -_
d~c~t-mi i ar ac ion if NITA were to be seriously
threatened.
of the civil war, but will yield no ma.ior gains for either cide
In our judgment, the fighting this year probably will be the most intense
-- In the fighting this year, however, we believe that UNITA will
haves a to 91ve ~nmP g.ro~nd, and ossibly lose some ositio such
a~s_ Ma~vin..g~a, 'in order to avoid a cost y conventional battle with
e~i heavier armed anvarnment fnrrac
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;;, Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/20: CIA-RDP91 B00874R000100140009-8
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/20 :CIA-RDP91 B00874R000100140009-8
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/20 :CIA-RDP91 B00874R000100140009-8