THE WARNING ACCOUNT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91B00776R000500100002-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 19, 2012
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: April 1, 1981
• Content Type: MEMO

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Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/19 :CIA-RDP91 B00776R000500100002-4
.TRANSMITTAL SLIP
DArE
2 Apr 81
To: A/NIO/Warning
ROOM NO.
5600
BUILDING
Hqs.
REMARKS;
FROM:
Richard Lehman, C/NIC
ROOM NO.
7E48
BUILDING
Hqs.
F_OIIM NO .7A 7 REPLACES FORM 96-a ren ~
Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/19 :CIA-RDP91 B00776R000500100002-4
 / ~
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/19: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000500100002-4
1 April 1981
MEMORANDUM FOR: Edward W. Proctor
SUBJECT : The Warning Account
1. Attached is the memorandum you asked me for the other day. As
compared with Bruce' ideas, mine go a little further. If the account
were divided, I would divide it completely and not try to have the non-
substantive people reporting to me. They should be an integral part of
the IC Staff.
2. The "focused warning" project has the potential for becoming
quite elaborate and requiring centralized management at the national
level. If so, the IC Staff or my own will probably have to do it.
3. Related to this is the intractable problem of providing
structured political and economic inputs to a national warning system
that will be compatible with the military input. DIA badly wants this
from State and CIA.
4. As to collection, I suspect this should remain closely coupled
to analysis and therefore that responsibility probably should stay with
our organization. This would be consistent with the concept that you
outlined to me the other day for the role of the NIOs in collection.
., ~ " ~
Richard Lehman
Chairman
National Intelligence Council
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/19: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000500100002-4
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/19: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000500100002-4
J I. VI\L i
SUBJECT: The Warning Account (NFAC #1868-81)
Distribution:
1 - Addressee
1 - A/NIO/t~larnina
- C/NIC Chrono
1 - NFAC Registry
crr~rT
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/19: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000500100002-4 ,?
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/19: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000500100002-4
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
MEMORANDUM FOR: National Intelligence Officer
for Warning
SUBJECT One Option for Using an Expanded NIO/W
Staff
NFAC #1850-81
1 April 1981
moving the management side of the proposed NIO/W staff to the IC
Staff (reconstituted).
1. Responsibilities: DCID 1/5 assigns the NIO/W the following
warning responsibi i~ es:
i. To oversee analysis of intelligence from all
sources which might provide warning. In partic-
ular, he should be alert to alternate interpreta-
tions within the Community and assess these with a
view to the need for issuance of warning. He should
encourage consultation and substantive discussion
at all levels in the Community.
ii. To recommend to the Director or Deputy Director of
Central Intelligence the issuance of warning to the
President and National Security Council, and to
ensure the dissemination of such warning within and
by the organizations of the Intelligence Community.
When time is of the essence, the National Intelli-
gence Officer may issue such warning directly to the
President and the National Security Council, with
concurrent dissemination to the Director and Deputy
Director of Central Intelligence and senior officers
of the Intelligence Community.
iii. To advise the Deputy Director for Collection Tasking
and Deputy Director for National Foreign Assessment
on appropriate Community response to developing warn-
ing situations.
SECRET
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/19: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000500100002-4
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/19: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000500100002-4
' SECRET
NFAC #1850-81
SUBJECT: One Option for Using an Expanded NIO/W 1 April 1981
Staff
iv. To develop plans and procedures for support of the
Director of Central Intelligence in crisis situations.
v. To support the Deputy Director of Central Intelli-
gence and the National Foreign Intelligence Board
on warning matters.
vi. To chair the Warning Working Group.
vii. To oversee the warning activities of the National
Intelligence Officers.
viii. To supervise the Strategic Warning Staff.
ix. To arrange for intelligence research and produc-
tion with respect to strategic warning.
x. To develop a warning consciousness and discipline
throughout the Community.
xi. To seek improvements in methodologies and proce-
dures for warning including communications and
dissemination of information.
xii. To arrange with appropriate organizations of the
government for provision to the National Intelli-
gence Officer for Warning and the Strategic L,larning
Staff of the information they need to carry out
their mission.
xiii. To promote improved analyst training in indications
and warning techniques and in other analytic tech-
niques that might contribute to improved warning.
xiv. To advise the Deputy for Collection Tasking and the
Deputy for Resource Management, as appropriate, on
warning activities that relate to their responsibilities.
2. The Strategic Warning Staff: The Warning Working Grou has a roved
a plan to disestablish the Strategic Warning Staff and transfer
of the slots to the NIO/W to form a staff supporting him directly. We will
be submitting their recommendation to the DDCI in the next week or so.
3. The NIO W Staff: Aside from the NIO/W and his assistant, we
envision professionals. 0 of these would be devoted to 25X1
substantive warning matters (i, ii, iii, v, vii, & ix in paragraph 1.)
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/19: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000500100002-4
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/19: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000500100002-4
NFAC #1850-81
SUBJECT: One Option for Using an Expanded NIO/W 1 April 1981
Staff
A ~~would be devoted to the care and feeding of the warning "system"
(iv, x, xi, xii, xiii and part of xiv in paragraph 1). The last would
concentrate on optimizing collection operations in developing crisis
situations.
4. The Slot: Following are examples of the things for
which this person wou be responsible. The list is illustrative, not
exhaustive.
-- The National 0 erations and Intelli ence Watch
icers et e I is responsible
for this secure conferencing telephone net, our
primary means to link the Washington area watch
centers together for the rapid exchange of time
sensitive information.
-- Alert Memoranda procedures. We have a highly
structured Community procedure for producing
coordinated Alert Memoranda in 24-36 hours. It
needs tender loving care.
-- DOD's "Focused Warning". DIA, as executive agent
for the DCI, is managing a Community project to
improve our warning capabilities against a Warsaw
Pact attack on NATO. It has subsumed two other
Community projects, "WISP" and "Force Packages".
This effort will require increasing involvement of
the NIO/W.
-- A national warning "system". DOD already has an
elaborate wor wi a warning system consisting of
twenty odd 24 hour watch centers. Eventually, we
can expect NSA, CIA, and INR (and perhaps the WHSR)
to be tied into that network, thus forming a true
national "system". Work on this has yet to begin,
although some discussions have taken place.
-- The Washin ton Area 0 erations Centers' Conference.
The NIO/W sponsors semiannua meetings a en e y
the directors of the4lashington Area Watch Centers
(WHSR, CIA, NSA/NSOC, State, DIA/NMIC, JCS/NMCC, and
the four military services). This is a valuable
forum for discussing mutual problems and exchanging
ideas.
-- Budget. Although we have had some success in
monitoring warning related budget issues, there is
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/19: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000500100002-4
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/19: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000500100002-4
NFAC #1850-81
SUBJECT: One Option for Using an Expanded NIO/W 1 April 1981
Staff
plenty of room for improvement. This is an enormous
task and probably could employ someone full time.
5. Th lot: The NIO/W should monitor and, when appropriate, 25X1
influence co ection operations during times of impending crisis. For
example, if things are heating up in country X and we're becoming a little
worried, the NIO/W should find out specifically what collection is taking
place and what can be done to improve it. Analysts now levy ad hoc
requirements ith little or no su ervision NSA and 25X1
the DDO opera a in epen en y the 25X1
attaches proceed in blissful ignorance or our concern, etc. We need
someone to find out what extraordinary tasking has been levied, why the
analysts are asking for specific information (and are they really asking
the right uestions and what can be done to tweak the various collectors--
including One 25X1
could argue that the NCPO/Warning should be doing this, but that has not
been the case.
6. A~n 0~t~ion_: If the NIO/W Staff is expanded as described above, and
if two peop a assigned tasks as described in paragraphs 4 and 5, and
depending on the role assumed by the reconstituted IC Staff, it might be
attractive to locate those two people with the IC Staff. They would be
members of the NIO/W staff and would report to him, but they might be in
a better position to carry out their duties if colocated with their
resource planning/management and collection management colleagues.
Assistant
tional Intelligence Officer
for Warning
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/19: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000500100002-4 ,.