WARNING COURSE - IV

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91B00776R000500050004-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 31, 2012
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: August 11, 1983
• Content Type: MISC

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/04: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000500050004-8
Warning Course - IV
New Outline
I.- Introduction to Warning
_ a. its purposes
b. its nature
1111 AUG 1983
II. Warning Structures and Vehicles
a. Institutional Warning" Structures
1. Alerting systems
-- CRITIC
-- SIGINT Alert System
-- Watch Conditions
-- Defense Conditions
-- Community
Alert memorandum
SNIE's
NIE's
-- Agency
,DIA Warning Report
Other Agency Reports
3. Institutional Handling
-- mainstream
-- by exception
4. Examples of operation
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/04: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000500050004-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/04: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000500050004-8
-- General introduction
to the USSR reporting system
b. Informal Warning Structures
1. How we think they work
2. What the vehicles are
3. Examples of the structures
4. Examples of operations
III. The National Intelligence Warning System -- our present
understanding
a. Role of Community organizations
1. DCI
2. NIC
3. NIO/W and NWS
4. Interagency groups
b. Roles of component agencies and their warning
c. Roles of alert analytical and operations centers
a.. Types of centers
2. Examples
The Psychology of Warning
Definitions and terms
1. Warning
2. Surprise
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/04: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000500050004-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/04: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000500050004-8
3. Strategic and Tactical Warning
4. Warning of War and Attack
5. Warning of Crises
-- Sudden
-- Gradual
b. Cognitive Process
-- Recognition of danger
-- Validation as genuine
-- Definition
-- Communication
-- Evaluation
-- Action
2. Explanation of the nature of the process
c. Cognitive Problems
1. Cognition itself
2. Conception
3. Perception
4. Assumptions/expectations
Sources of Warning Information
a. The nature of evidence
1. Types of evidence
-- eye witness
-- hearsay
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/04: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000500050004-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/04: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000500050004-8
--demonstrative (imagery)
-- circumstantial -
2. Relative probity of each type
-- reliability
-- validity
-- cross checking procedures
-- experience as.a source substitute
3. Evidence filters -- paper 'and eletronics
b. Probabilities
1. Difference between impact and likelihood
2. Event types distinguished and illustrated
3. Marginal probability and joint probability
4. Conditional probability
5. Relationship between logic and math and
probability diagrams
6. Implications of new information
7. Probabilities indicators used in SIGINT
c. Uncertainty and False Alarms
1. Essential information in warning
2. Vigilance vs. Reassurance
3. Norms for follow-up
4. Misses distinguished from false alarms
5. Consequences of delays
d. What to expect from each collection source
1. SIGINT
2. USS
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/04: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000500050004-8
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/04: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000500050004-8
3. Imagery
4. HUMINT
5. Advantages and disadvantages of each
6. How to read reports from each
VI. Analytical Methods
a. Traditional loosely structured methods
1. Inductive puzzle-piecing
2. Hypothesis testing
3. Theory of the case
b. Indications analysis
1. Types of subjects
-- Terrorism
-- Military activity
2. SIGINT indicators with exercises
3. WWIMS
4. Political instability indicators
C. Structured Analytical methods
1. Decision points -- Belden
2. Behavioral analyses
3. Expected utility -- Univ of Rochester
4. Expert systems
5. Diagnostic Trees
Fundamentals of Decision-making analysis
a. Deliberate decisions vs. contingent decisions
b. Basics on the nature of intent
c. Distinguishing'decision-making*'roles
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/04: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000500050004-8
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/04: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000500050004-8
d. The influence of individuals, institutions and
mixed models -- Allison
e. Perceptions and other problems for decision-makers
VIII. Warning Lore -- US experience in warning
a. Harms encountered inthe past
1. The disasters -- Pearl Harbor to the Shah
-- Cryptanalysis in WW II (videotape)
1. Oil embargo of 1973
2. Afghanistan, Poland, others
c. Recent improvements
1. NSA today
2. Near real time systems
d. Deception
1. Doctrine - Whaley
2. Practice
3. Detection of deception
e. Warning lessons learned
1. Technology
2. Information and collection
3. Judgment
f. International arrangements
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/04: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000500050004-8
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/04: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000500050004-8
g. Where technology is taking us and its implications
for analysis and analysts
IX. Wrap-up Discussion of Present Issues in Warning
Departure from the past
1. Warning of communist threats
2. Primarily devoted to war
3. Special discipline
4. Performed by
,specialists only
b.Present approaches
1. Everybody's business
2. A function rather than a separate discipline
3. No surprise
c. Current issues
1. Role of coordination
2. Need for a community vehicle
3. How much centralization
4. Betts' failures-are-inevitable theory
5. Capabilities or intentions -- a real
dichotomy?
6. mid-level management's role
7'. Need for sustained consciousness
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/04: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000500050004-8
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/04: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000500050004-8
Suggested Instruction Times
I. Introduction to Warning 1 hour
Ii. Warning Structures and Vehicles 3 hours
III.The National Intelligence Warning System
3 hours
IV, The Psychology of Warning
3 hours
V. The Sources of Warning Information
8 hours
VI. Analytical Methods
8 hours
VII. Fundamentals of Decision-making
4 hours
VIII. Warning Lore
6 hours
IX. Wrap-up
4 hours
Total: 40 hours( probably minimum)
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/04: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000500050004-8