LATIN AMERICA WARNING AND FORECAST MEETING OCTOBER 1986

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91B00776R000300110008-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 11, 2013
• Sequence Number: 8
• Publication Date: October 23, 1986
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/11: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000300110008-9
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I he Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Council
NIC 04908-86
23 October 1986
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
VIA: National Intelligence Officer for Warning
FROM: Robert D. Vickers, Jr.
National Intelligence Officer for Latin America
SUBJECT: Latin America Warning and Forecast Meeting
October 1986
1. The following items were discussed at the Intelligence
Community's Warning and Forecast Meeting held on 22 October 1986.
Nicaragua
3. Meanwhile, there has been a moderate buildup of Sandinista forces
along the Honduran border opposite FDN concentrations in the Yamales
salient.
The buildup is probably related to Sandinista attempts to
prevent the reinfiltration of many of the over 10,000 FDN troops
in the salient.
SE6RETJ
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/11: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000300110008-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/11: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000300110008-9
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-- A major Sandinista incursion into Honduras appears unlikely at
this time, especially because of weather conditions and the lack
of a major loqistical buildup, but small probes and harassment
of FDN forces probably will continue.
WARNING ISSUE: The possibility that Cuba will send MIG-21s to
Nicaragua before the end of the year cannot be ruled out, despite the
risk of US retaliation. There also is still a possibility of another
major Sandinista incursion into Honduras by early 1987, particularly if
small scale clashes in the Yamales salient escalate into a major
confrontation.
El Salvador
WARNING ISSUE: The Sandinistas, building on their experience in
overthrowing omoza after the disasterous Managua earthquake, probably
are giving the FMLN close advice and support in their new political
action program. Over the longer term, there is a danger that Duarte will
lose considerable popular support unless he can handle the earthquake
relief effort efficiently and with a minimum of official corruption.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/11: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000300110008-9
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Ecuador
5. The political dispute between President Febres-Cordero and the
opposition-controlled Congress has been interrupted by the end of the
normal legislative session, and it resulted in the forced resignation of
only one cabinet member.
-- Nevertheless, the confrontation is likely to continue outside of
Congress, and it could be exacerbated by the potential return
from Panama of one of the President's major opponents, the
former mayor of Guayaquil, Abdala Bucaram Ortiz.
-- Congress itself-is not scheduled to reconvene until mid-1987,
but at that time it may resume efforts to force the resignation
of more cabinet members.
Meanwhile, the military, which strongly supports Febres-Cordero,
is likely to monitor developments closely and use heavy-handed
tactics to counter any opposition demonstrations or labor
strikes.
WARNING ISSUE: The continued confrontation between Febres-Cordero
and the opposition is likely to make it difficult for the President to
carry out an effective economic recovery program to offset the sharp drop
in government oil revenues over the past year. Nevertheless, the chances
of an imminent crisis appear to have receded.
Robert D. Vickers, Jr.
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/11: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000300110008-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/11: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000300110008-9
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Participating in the NIO/Latin America Warning Meeting of
23 October 1986 were representatives of the following agencies:
DIA: DIO/DIA
DIA/DE3
DIAC/DB3C3
DIA/DB3C2
DIA/DC4A
DIA/DB6D2
DIA/DB5C2
JSI-4B
National Security Agency
Department of State/INR
CIA Participants:
ALA
SOVA
OG I
OIA
CRES
LDA
OIR
OSWR
DO/LA
DO/CATF
NIO/W
ICS/HC
NPIC
FBIS
JPRS
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/11: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000300110008-9