WARNING REPORT-NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91B00776R000300110005-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 11, 2013
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: October 20, 1986
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/11: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000300110005-2
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The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Council
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
FROM: MG David W. Einsel, Jr.
National Intelligence Officer at Large
SUBJECT: Warning Report - Nuclear Proliferation
1. The attached report is based on discussions at an interagency
warning/forecasting meeting held on 6 October 1986. The meeting was attended
by about 50 Community specialists, and we very briefly examined the current
status of nuclear proliferation worldwide--i.e., in South Asia, South America,
2. There were no really significant new issues that could be discussed at
the meeting (compartmentation prevented some discussion), and
there are no warning issues to report.
David W. Einsel, Jr.
Attachments (2):
1. Warning Report, SC-8325/86
2. List of Attendees
MEMO DOWNGRADED TO CONFIDENTIAL
WHEN SEPARATED FROM ATTACHMENT
NIC 04710-86
20 October 1986
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NIC 04710-86
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SUBJECT: Warning Report - Nuclear Proliferation (U)
DCI/NIC/A/NI0/NP
Distribution:
Copy 1 - DC I
2 - DDCI
3 - Executive Director
4 - Executive Registry
5 - D0/ EP DS
6 - D0/PCS
7 - C/NIC
8 - VC/NIC
9-13 - NIO/Warning
14 - DDI Registry
15 - NI0/AL
16 - A/ N I 0/ NP
17 - A/NI0/NP Chrono
18 - Warning File
(10 Oct 1986) STAT
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/11: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000300110005-2
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/11: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000300110005-2
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/11: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000300110005-2
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/11: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000300110005-2 25X1
Attachment 1 to
NIC 04710-86
WARNING REPORT - NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION
1. There are no major new developments in the nuclear proliferation
area. Pakistan remains the principal country of concern, and there is a
continuing concern about India's possible responses to Pakistan's program.
and there
have been some interesting developments in South America and the Far East. No
new warning issues emerged from our discussions.
2. Pakistan/India: Pakistan continues working on projects relevant to
nuclear-weapons development.
ere are no
significant new technical developments in India, but government leaders
continue to show a high level of concern about the nuclear weapons issue. As
a post-Chernobyl reaction, we should Drobably be concerned about safety within
the Indian civil nuclear program.
3. Argentina/Brazil: There has been no real movement following
discussions last year between Presidents Alfonsin and Sarney on nuclear
matters. There have been two subsequent working group meetings in which
nuclear cooperation and nuclear safety were discussed. The future of this
confidence building exercise remains uncertain. The Brazilian press has
recently publicized an alledged underground nuclear test facility at Cachimbo
in northern Brazil;
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Attachment 1 to
NIC 04710-86
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5. Far East: Taiwan has agreed to fund return to the US of spent fuel
from the Taiwan Research Reactor, following completion of the shi ments
already funded through US efforts.
North 25X1
Korea is four months overdue, followin signing of the NPT, in negotiating
safeguards agreements 25X1
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/11: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000300110005-2
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Attachment 2 to
NIC 04710-86
LIST OF ATTENDEES
NUCLEAR WARNING MEETING - 6 October 1986
STATE:
Allen Sessoms, OES
Joerg H. Menzel, S/NP
Beth Frisa, INR
AC DA:
Gary Bray, NWC/INA
DOE:
Robert Bingham, DP-432
LAWRENCE LIVERMORE NATIONAL LABORATORIES
Gary amore
NAVY:
Andrew Cook, ONI
ARMY:
Robert M. Alexander, OACSI/DAMI-FIT
Nancy McCabe, OACSI
DEPARTMENT OF TREASURY:
Roger Pajak
ATTACHMENT 2 DOWNGRADED TO CL BY 2090982
CONFIDENTIAL WHEN SEPARATED FROM DECL OADR
ATTACHMENT 1
TOP SECRET UMBRA NOFORN NOCONTRACT ORCON WNINTEL
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 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/11: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000300110005-2
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/11: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000300110005-2