REPORT ON 19 FEBRUARY 1987 NIO/NARCOTICS WARNING AND FORECAST MEETING

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91B00776R000300040025-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 7, 2013
• Sequence Number: 25
• Publication Date: March 6, 1987
• Content Type: MEMO

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The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Council
NIC #00812-87
6 March 1987
MEMORANDUM FOR: Acting Director of Central Intelligence
THROUGH: National Intelligence Officer for Warning
FROM: William R. Kotapish
National Intelligence Office for Narcotics
SUBJECT: Report on 19 February 1987 NIO/Narcotics Warning and
? Forecast Meeting
Representatives of the Intelligence Community and appropriate law
enforcement representatives met on 19 February 1987 to discuss the
following: implications of expanded heroin trafficking by the Burmese
Communist Party (presented by CIA/DI/OGI); the aftermath of Carlos Lehder's
arrest and implications for Colombia (presented by DEA); and a presentation
led by the 010/Latin America on the receptivity of individual Latin American
nations to US-military support for counternarcotics efforts.
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National Intelligence Officer for Narcotics
Intelligence Coordination and Strategy Meeting
19 February 1987
Expanded Heroin Trafficking by the Burmese Communist Party (BCP)
1. The discussion was led by CIA/DI/OGI. The
principal points included:
o The BCP is stepping up its drive to become a major heroin
supplier in the Golden Triangle.
o The effort is a campaign intended to take over a large share
of the narcotics trade along the Thai-Burma border from the
Shan United Army, the Golden Triangle's dominant
heroin-trafficking group.
-- The BCP is increasing its heroin output at refineries in
the northern Shan State; sending shipments along routes
into India, south through Burma, and increasingly into
China.
-- It is also expanding trafficking and military activity in
the north, beyond Kachim State and central Burma.
o The Burmese Army -- some 12,000 strong -- has launched a
counteroffensive against the BCP in the north.
- -
Question remains open as to how long the Burmese army can
sustain military operations at their current level.
If the BCP tries to establish itself permanently near the
Thai-Burma border, Rangoon will likely be forced to take
a stronger stand. The potential financial windfall to
the BCP from heroin trafficking would be too great for
Rangoon to ignore.
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o Although the BCP is moving heroin north into India, routes
across the Thai/Burma border remain the most serious
trafficking threat.
2. The NIO/Narcotics then turned to a brief review of current, topical
issues, among which were included:
o A worldwide narcotics threat assessment was presented by the
DDI to the National Drug Policy Board on 19 February.
o The NIO briefly reviewed the principal points discussed during
a debriefing of Ambassador Gillespie (Colombia). Ambassador
Gillespie observed that upon assuming office President Barco
had two fundamental concerns: 1) insurgency (FARC); and 2)
violence (M-19). As the narcotics trafficking organizations
accelerated violent incidents, Barco began to adopt a more
aggressive stance against them. Barco now appears more
willing than ever before to allow the Colombian military a
freer hand. Concerns over sovereignty have softened. Barco
is now turning to the US mission country team for assessments
on narcotics issues, e.g., Blast Furnace, extradition laws.
Colombia and Carlos Lehder
3. The Chief, Cocaine Unit, Operations Intelligence, DEA, Mr. Robert
Fernandez, led the discussion. The significant points were:
o Lehder was a member of the Medellin cartel, but an estranged,
violent member.
o Pablo Escobar, who manages the most extensive narcotics
trafficking cartel, was probably responsible for tipping off
Colombian authorities to Lehder's whereabouts.
o The question of possible retaliation by the cartel remains a
serious one.
Lehder may possibly retaliate against other members of
the cartel.
-- There may be retaliation against members of the US
Mission in Bogota.
Prospects for US-military Supported Counternarcotics Operations in Latin
America
4. Colonel John Cash, USA, 010/Latin America, led the discussion on
this issue. It was prompted by a US SOUTHCOM request for a Community
assessment of countries in Latin America taking into account where the drug
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problems are most severe and where the feasibility of US military assistance
to local forces is the greatest. This assessment was completed last month
and a DIA message, coordinated within the Community, was sent to US SOUTHCOM
on 17 January 1987. Its principal conclusion was that the possibility for
any operations similar to "Blast Furnace" were remote over the near term.
However, several countries were mentioned which might be willing to
cooperate with a low-profile, US-military support role, i.e. Venezuela,
Ecuador and Colombia.
Community Report
5. The following representative of the narcotics intelligence community
commented on the following:
o Customs remarked that it would be conducting a training
program in aircraft/passenger search procedures for the
Pakistani soon.
o US Coast Guard commented on current evasion techniques being
used by narcotics traffickers.
o NNBIS mentioned that Customs would soon be hosting a
round-table discussion of the containerized cargo problem.
o State commented on INM participation at Vienna preparatory
meetings for the UN narcotics conference in June. One
noteworthy development is the degree to which the Soviet bloc
has supported US counternarcotics proposals.
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