TERRORISM WARNING AND FORECAST REPORT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91B00776R000300040012-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 6, 2013
• Sequence Number: 12
• Publication Date: February 2, 1987
• Content Type: MEMO

I
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/07: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000300040012-2
r The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Council NIC 00452-87
2 February 1987
FROM: Charles E. Allen
National Intelligence Officer for Counterterrorism
SU3TDCT: Terrorism Warning and Forecast Report
Representatives of the Intelligence Community met on 23 January 1987 to
discuss the following issues: threat to the Islamic Summit; terrorist threats
in Colombia; and operational intelligence requirements of JSOC. Attached is
my report.
Attachment:
As stated
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/07: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000300040012-2
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/07: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000300040012-2 25X1
~i\Li 1
Warning Report - Terrorism
abridged warning 'and forecast meeting.
IV
Because of thy- inclement weather, only a few persons convened for an
1. Terrorist Threat to the Islamic Summit
A brief discussion of the threats revealed concensus that some acts of
terrorism and/or sabotage should be expected during the conference which
convenes on 26 January. It was agreed that the recent simultaneous explosions
at the oil facilities were most likely sabotage, despite official denials.
INR considered the threat from the Abu Nidal group to be diminished as a
result of Syria's decision to participate. Because of the enhanced security
site. Alternatively, softer peripheral targets may be chosen.
at the conference site, delegations may be attacked enroute to or from the
2. Terrorist 'Threats in Colombia
An INR representative led a thorough discussion of terrorist threats in
Colombia. We believe that US Embassy personnel are at increased risk because
of joint targetting by terrorists and narcotraffickers.
The following major points were made:
- The apparent collaboration between the Nation Guerrilla Coordinating
Group (CNG) and the Medellin Cartel of narcotics traffickers presents
a significant new threat. It apparently has begun to implement its
threats to eliminate those favoring the extradition treaty as seen in
the shooting of Colombia's Ambassador to Hungary.
- M-19, Colombia's strongest terrorist group, suffered serious setbacks
last year, is suffering financially, and appears to be in disarray.
It probably needs to take some dramatic action to enhance its image
and draw new recruits. An attack on US interests could serve that
purpose.
ELN, the rural based terrorist group, has made more than 20 attacks on
the pipeline since July, was surprised by its success, and plans to
increase further its activities in 1987. It is financially well off
from revenues derived by kidnappings and extortion against the oil
companies.
- There may be a new terrorist group, Causa Caribe which has been
conducting indiscriminate bombings in Baranquilla.
- The implications of closing the embassy because of a terrorist threat
may be far-reaching.
Information) indicates that significant
terrorist activities may occur during February. US facilities and
personnel are high risk targets.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/07: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000300040012-2
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/07: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000300040012-2 25X1
3. Operational Requirements of JSOC
A representative of the Counterterrorism Joint Task Force
presented a brief overview of the organization's history,
mission, and structure. An invitation was extended to all to visit both the
Analysis Division and to observe one of the exercises that it regularly
conducts. Interested persons should contact Mr. Brian Boyd, telephone
919-396-0270 to arrange for a visit.
The speaker described the data bases available to and developed by JSOC to
support operational planning for hostage rescue/barricade situations. He
emphasized the need for rapid communications with Community analysts during a
crisis situation and noted that JSOC depends heavily on the Flashboard system
for this. Attached to this report are the essential elements of information
that JSOC needs when preparing for a mission.
25X1
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/07: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000300040012-2
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/07: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000300040012-2 25X1
Tim Stater
Peter Probst
Linnea Raine
Philip Kosnett
James McDonough
Henry Eide
Brian Boyd
ANIO/c-r
State INR/TNA
OSD
DOE/DASI/OTA
INR/TNA
HQ AFOSI/IVOAA
DEA
JSOC
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/07: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000300040012-2