NEAR EAST/SOUTH ASIA AFGHANISTAN/PAKISTAN/USSR: MOUNTING SOVIET PRESSURE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91B00776R000300020016-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 15, 2013
• Sequence Number: 16
• Publication Date: July 14, 1987
• Content Type: MISC

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/15: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000300020016-0
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NIO/W
14 July 1987
NEAR EAST/SOUTH ASIA
AFGHANISTAN/PAKISTAN/USSR: Mounting Soviet Pressure
The Soviets are escalating pressure on Pakistan and may have upped the
ante significantly against US interests there.
Meanwhile,
more aggressive Soviet/Afghan bombing and airspace violations continue
apace--475 this year, both deeper and more deadly than last year's 750
violations.
EGYPT: Prospects for Instability
In the face of economic deterioration and increasing activity by
religious activists, President Mubarak will be hard-pressed to maintain
control during implementation of the newest IMF program. Should extensive
protests and labor strife erupt, Mubarak's hold on the presidency could be
threatened. At the same time,-the stability of the Egyptian government and
its relations with the US and Israel depend on Mubarak, who is a constant
target for assassination by external and internal foes. Further violence
against US personnel is possible.
INDIA/CHINA: Border Clashes
Both Chinese and Indian military preparedness and hardened diplomatic
positions make further showdowns almost inevitable, despite New Delhi's
recent conciliatory actions. Beijing's unyielding stance--three new forward
positions have been established recently--seems calculated to force New Delhi
to withdraw from last summer's encroachments or fight. India's inclusion,
however, of the disputed area into a new state, and domestic focus on the
situation, make it tough for Gandhi to compromise. Should Gandhi not
compromise, larger more serious military confrontations are likely before the
end of this year.
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INDIA/PAKISTAN: Continued Uncertainty and Nuclear Weapons
Islamabad already has the
capability to produce a nuclear weapon within a few days to a few weeks.
This appears to have triggered another Indian reassessment of its nuclear
weapons options that will further fuel tensions in the subcontinent.
NIO/Warning notes that we should be prepared for the eventuality of a weapons
test in the subcontinent.
INDIA/SRI LANKA: Invasion?
New Delhi is considering increasing its supply of arms to the Tamil
insurgents, which would prompt extensive fighting in the north, high civilian
casualties, and spur India to consider military intervention.
IRAN/IRAQ/GULF ARAB STATES: Damn the Torpedoes
The war at sea has reached yet-a new level of seriousness, as Iran feels
compelled to demonstrate it is not intimidated by US warships and Iraq and
Iran continue aggressive operations in the northern Gulf. Their attacks on
neutral shipping--done deliberately or through errors in target acquisition
and discrimination--could result in an attack on an American or Soviet
combatant on escort duty at any time.
may now judge the benefits of attacking or mining a US-flagged vessel to
outweigh the risks of retaliation. Additionally, there have been reports of
Iranian plans for direct action against Kuwait, including invasion of Bubyion
Island, which also would have serious consequences for the US in the region.
IRAN/IRAQ: Internal Developments
Political stakes in the war are high. The potential for sudden collapse
of either government is out of proportion to actual or likely military
results. Military and civilian opposition to Husayn continues. In Iran,
differences over conduct of the war reportedly have sparked unprecedented
discontent from a war-weary populace in several cities. Khomeini seems to be
losing control of the power struggle among his successors, and his death
could cause major instability.
KURDS/TURKEY/IRAQ/IRAN: Kurds Weighing In
Continued Iranian support and manipulation of the Kurds, coupled with
increasing Iranian assisted insurgent activity in the Kirkuk oil region, are
drawing Turkey closer to the conflict in the region. Iran recently conducted
a raid inside Turkey to retaliate against two Turkish raids against Kurdish
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targets inside Iran. Meanwhile, Baghdad's scorched-earth policy of forcibly
relocating 1700 Kurdish settlements from northern Iraq has caused many
formerly pro-Iraqi Kurds to join the insurgency. Ankara's concern over
Tehran's continued support of the Iraqi Kurds and involvement in terrorism
against Turkey could rapidly worsen Turkish-Iranian relations.
LIBYA: Debacle
As Libyan public appreciation of the extent of Qadhafi's failures in Chad
grows, backlash against Libyan defeats seems certain. The political and
psychological repercussions of these debacles may not reach their full effect
for several months, but Qadhafi's chances of retaining power will lessen in
the face of public discontent and continued plotting in the military officer
corps.
SYRIA: Internal Struggle
Assad's poor health could leave him incapacitated at any time. In the
absence of a named successor, new pressures in Lebanon, and an ever-
deteriorating economic situation, the chances of a sudden change of
government grow.
TUNISIA: Increasing Instability
Bourguiba's campaign to suppress all political opposition is escalating
with crackdowns on Islamic fundamentalists. Far from ensuring smooth
succession, however, the regime's efforts are drastically increasing
discontent and ensuring chaos, uncertainty and confusion when the succession
crisis comes. The Libyan threat almost certainly will increase in the
post-Bourguiba period, and Algeria too seems poised to influence the
succession struggle.
BERLIN/USSR/GERMANY: New Initiatives?
The Soviets and East Germans are continuing to probe Allied unity on arms
negotiations and sensitive Berlin issues. Proposals for easing military
confrontation in Europe and reducing the risks of surprise attack are
designed to undercut the credibility of traditional NATO and pro-US policies
and hasten the trend toward independent European accommodations with Moscow.
During this anniversary year of Berlin, further Soviet probes designed to
challenge the status of Berlin are likely.
GREECE/TURKEY/CYPRUS: Troubled Waters
Tensions in,the Aegean continue. Implementation of Greek plans to deploy
one or two armored brigades in northern Greece to Thrace would be perceived
by Turkey as a provocative act. New military developments in Cyprus provide
further flashpoints for conflict. A significant increase in the number of
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Turkish tanks on Cyprus
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confrontation. Alienation o Turkey by European governments' actions is
likely to push Ankara toward more aggressive solutions to the problems in the
Aegean. Each side apparently believes the US can prevent war--an attitude
that may encourage recklessness and lack of restraint, which could trigger
sudden confrontation through miscalculation and escalation.
MALTA/LIBYA: Warming Relations?
The Maltese government--which wrested control from the pro-Libyan
opposition party in May--may be debating accepting Libyan rewards for
honoring bilateral agreements reached formerly by the Labor Government.
NORTH KOREA: Mobilization
North Korean ground forces have assumed a heightened state of readiness,
and P'yongyang continues unusual steps to significantly augment its war
preparedness, including: the stockpiling of grains, despite an ongoing food
shortage, for wartime consumption; implementation of various Supreme
Commander Orders transferring parts of the country to military logistics
administration; and issuance of a wartime transportation plan. Additional
North Korean actions will be strongly influenced by its perception of
political developments in the south. NIO/Warning notes that as P'yongyang
changes its-war preparedness, its intentions to capitalize on perceived
disorder in the south will be strongly influenced by its perception of
continued US commitment to defend South Korea as evidenced by US political
and military actions.
SOUTH KOREA: Breakpoint?
The potential for a major upheaval continues. A breakdown in public
order could embolden North Korea into considering precipitous and dangerous
military actions against the south.
PHILIPPINES: Tiger by the Tail
Recent attacks against US facilities are likely to increase as the US is
further targeted by both right and left wing forces in the Philippines. The
movement toward intensified guerilla operations in urban areas--which may
include targeting of American interests--will further increase strains
between the military and the Aquino administration. Unless Aquino implements
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her land reform program before losing her decree-making powers on 27 July
when the new congress convenes, it. is not likely that any tangible reform
program will be enacted that is imperative to arrest the growing insurgency.
CHILE: Intransigence
Pinochet has surrounded himself almost completely with hardliners who
will not provide significant policy dissent. Pinochet appears more
determined than ever to maneuver to remain in power beyond 1989. Prominent
military leaders, including some in the junta, are already expressing
discontent. Pinochet's actions to maintain control may precipitate a new
crisis of confidence over his leadership within the armed forces and fuel
momentum for decisive change before 1989.
HAITI: Storm Warning
Despite the Ruling Council's decision to rescind the controversial
electoral decree, a general strike in several cities continues and the
overall situation worsens. Incidents of anti-Americanism probably will
grow. These developments--in conjunction with the massive pressures on the
government of a country whose unemployment rate exceeds 50 percent--may
imperil the scheduled transfer of power to an elected civilian president in
February 1988.
JAMAICA: Hard Times Aid. Manley
Political tensions continue, and economic woes are deepening. As
national elections approach, Manley's chances of winning the election are
good, as long as his health holds.
MEXICO: Political Crisis?
Acute economic problems, austerity measures, and corruption will continue
to generate widespread popular and business dissatisfaction and prompt
sporadic civil disturbances, especially in the northern states.
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS: Continuation of Hostilities
Nicaragua continues to maintain a limited presence inside Honduran border
regions, thereby keeping pressure on the Honduran government to restrict
rebel activities. Honduras is likely to seek concessions and further
reassurances of support from the US, as Managua steps up activities aimed at
embarrassing Tegucigalpa. NIO/Warning notes that the potential for
Sandinista forces inside Honduras to fire on US military personnel continues.
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PANAMA: Upheaval?
With the lifting of the state of emergency, a new round of street
violence could occur at any time. Widespread opposition to Military Chief
Noriega's rule guarantees a protracted political crisis and disruptive
confrontations. Noriega already has laid the groundwork for a demagogic
campaign against alleged US interference and a conspiracy to oust him.
Noriega, who controls the level of violence against US interests, could
increase that level at any time should he feel threatened by the US.
President Devalle could resign at any time, and subsequent developments are
likely to have a more conspicuous anti-American flavor. Chances of raids on
or sabotage against Canal facilities or US business, official, or military
personnel will increase as the crisis evolves.
SURINAME: Quagmire
A year of insurgent military and economic attacks by Brunswijk's
- 200-person forces has not significantly eroded Bouterse's grip on power. The
recent announcement of a new constitution and dates for a referendum and
general elections are means to perpetuate the military in power.
Nonetheless, governmental collapse remains possible.
ANGOLA: Prospects for Clash with South Africa
The risk of direct South African-Cuban clashes appears to be growing, as
preparations for a large-scale government offensive in southeast Angola
mount. Cuban contingency plan
for retaliatory airstrikes against South African air bases in Namibia increase
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NIGER/LIBYA: Succession and Libyan Activities
President Kountche reportedly is recovering from brain surgery in Europe,
but jockeying for succession could result in a military coup. Increased
Libyan meddling and subversion can be expected if Kountche suffers a relapse
and uncertainty over the succession takes hold.
SOMALIA/ETHIOPIA: Tense Border
Border tensions continue, and Ethiopia may participate in shallow
cross-border raids into northern Somalia in support of Somali dissidents at
any time. Mogadishu consequently has looked to the US for reassurance in the
form of more military aid--and may eventually threaten to abrogate the 1980
bilateral access agreement if new military aid is not forthcoming. Siad also
may make additional overtures to Moscow in an attempt to induce more US
military aid.
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SOUTH AFRICA/FRONTLINE STATES: Confrontation
Conservative electoral gains and deep divisions within the Afrikanner
community have revealed increased domestic polarization that has further
undermined the influence of moderate blacks and whites who seek compromise.
In extending the emergency decree to a quasi-permanent condition and stifling
otherwise legitimate dissent, the government's actions have almost guaranteed
continued and increasing violence. Externally Pretoria's increasingly
coercive measures against the Frontline States afford greater opportunities
for both the West and the East to capitalize on the Frontline States'
heightened sense of vulnerability.
SUDAN/ETHIOPIA: Precarious Tenure
Prime Minister Sadiq faces increasing challenges to his authority as the
economy worsens and military reversals in the South continue. The Sudanese
military believes that Ethiopian troops are directly supporting insurgent
attacks against Sudanese garrisons along the border. These developments,
plus reductions in US aid, will encourage a frustrated military reluctantly
to seek to overthrow the government.
SOVIET UNION/EASTERN EUROPE
EASTERN EUROPE: Under Pressure
Dissent is increasing throughout much of Eastern Europe. To various
degrees, the present governments are under new pressures:
-- Growing economic and political problems, coupled with Gorbachev's
glasnost campaign, have had unsettling effects on the aging East
European leaderships.' Prospective succession dilemmas, particularly
in Hungary and Czechoslovakia, are adding to the potential for
instaability. In Hungary, strikes and demonstrations will grow as
the impact of recent economic austerity measures are felt.
-- Pressures also are great in Romania, where the continuing debt and
liquidity crises have exacerbated already abject living conditions.
Civil unrest continues, and as conditions worsen, the Soviets will
be in a position to exert even more pressure than before.
USSR: Massive Need for Hard Currency
The Soviets face substantial reductions in hard currency earning from oil
this year at a time of increasing need for imports for modernization. Moscow
increasingly will: rely on Western credit markets; squeeze oil supplied to
Eastern Europe to try to barter it on the international market; sell more
gold; and try to promote new exports--arms, vehicles, metals, and shipping
services--at bargain prices to gain needed hard currency.
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