EAST ASIA NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA: CRITICAL JUNCTURE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91B00776R000300020009-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 15, 2014
• Sequence Number: 9
• Publication Date: August 12, 1987
• Content Type: MISC

Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/15: CIA-RDP91B00776R000300020009-8
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EAST ASIA
NIO/W
12 August 1987
NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA: Critical Juncture
Provisions in the new draft constitution--which would restrict voter
eligibility and effectively ban Kim Dae Jung from running for the
presidency--are obstacles that could lead to an impasse in negotiations to
establish ground rules for a presidential election late this year. Should
the current talks on constitutional reform falter, street demonstrations
could erupt, and a breakdown of public order could result in the imposition
of martial law. Disorder will encourage North Korea to consider mounting
destabilization operations and foment anti-government riots and sabotage.
PHILIPPINES: Bolder Communist Insurgency
The NPA is gradually increasing its military operations and, since the
beginning of the year, has killed 660 government troops. Recent reporting
indicates the communists plan increased violence leading up to the November
elections--apparently to intimidate local voters into supporting Philippine
Communist Party backed candidates. Statements by an NPA spokesman--
threatening US personnel--reflect a change in the NPA's longstanding policy
against targeting Americans and may presage future attacks against US
interests.
NEAR EAST/SOUTH ASIA
AFGHANISTAN/PAKISTAN/USSR: Mounting Soviet Pressure
New Soviet diplomatic initiatives and increasingly aggressive Soviet
bombing and airspace violations of Pakistani territory are maintaining
pressure on Zia to stop providing aid to the Afghan resistance and to reach
an accommodation with Moscow. The recent resurgence of violent opposition in
Pakistan may provide opportunities for greater Soviet leverage and might
induce Zia to seek further aid and reassurance from the US.
EGYPT: Prospects for Instability
In the face of economic deterioration and continued activity by religious
activists, President Mubarak will be hard-pressed to maintain control during
implementation of the newest IMF program. There are already indications that
Mubarak is unwilling to take the necessary steps needed to implement the
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gradual economic restructuring required to prevent a future cutoff of IMF
funds. If Mubarak fails to adequately address Egypt's growing economic
crisis, extensive protests and labor strife could erupt, undermining
Mubarak's hold on the presidency.
INDIA/CHINA: Risk of Confrontation
Chinese initiatives since mid-July to defuse the border issue--and New
Delhi's conciliatory actions--have helped ease tensions along the Sino-Indian
border, but there have been no confirmed troop withdrawals from the border
and China may have relocated two more divisions to the disputed area.
India's inclusion of the disputed area into a new state, and domestic focus
on the situation, will make it difficult for Gandhi to compromise during the
next round of border talks scheduled for November. Should Gandhi not
compromise, the level of tension could result in new military confrontations
before the end of this year.
INDIA/PAKISTAN: Continued Uncertainty and Nuclear Weapons
Islamabad probably already has the capability
to produce a nuclear weapon within a few days to a few weeks of a decision to
do so. The Pakistani nuclear program enjoys widespread domestic support, and
external pressures against the nuclear program are not likely to dissuade
Pakistan from maintenance of the nuclear option. This has triggered Indian
reassessment of its nuclear weapons options, and this will further fuel
tensions in the subcontinent. Nb/Warning notes that we should be prepared
for the eventuality of a weapons test in the subcontinent.
INDIA/SRI LANKA: Indian Invasion
India has deployed nearly 18,000 troops to northern Sri Lanka in the last
two weeks to help enforce the peace agreement concerning the Tamil
insurgency. In addition to introducing a force already as large as the whole
Sri Lankan Army, the Indians have obtained Colombo's agreement to a virtual
Indian veto of national security policy in Sri Lanka, including access to
external military assistance, internal security in the north and east, and
foreign ship visits. The Indian deployment already exceeds the security
needs of the Tamil region and continues to grow. It began at a time when the
Sri Lankan forces were achieving some progress against the insurgency. The
growing Indian intervention emerges as a predatory move against a smaller
neighbor, belying earlier assurances of nonintervention. It is not yet clear
how far Prime Minister Gandhi intends to go in seizing power over Sri Lanka
but his commitment to the effort continues to grow. There may soon be no
independent Sri Lankan government. US interests in the country may be in
jeopardy.
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IRAN/IRAQ/GULF ARAB STATES: Collision Course
Saudi Arabia and Iran may be moving toward military conflict in the wake
of last week's violence in Mecca and Iranian retaliatory moves. Iranian
military preparations and its specific inclusion of an Emirate in Tehran's
list of direct enemies of Iran may be a harbinger of further actions against
the US in the region, or in the short run, an Iranian attempt to seize new
territory from the Gulf Arabs. Additionally, there would be serious
repercussions in the region should Iran carry out its plans to occupy
Kuwait's Bubiyan Island. The probability of a US combatant being involved in
hostilities in the region is higher than ever before.
IRAN/IRAQ: Internal Developments
Political stakes in the war are high. The potential for sudden collapse
of either government is out of proportion to actual or likely military
results. Military and civilian opposition to Husayn continues. Meanwhile,
in Iran, Khomeini seems to have lost some control over the power struggle
among his successors, and his death could lead to major instability within
the post-Khomeini government.
KURDS/TURKEY/IRAQ/IRAN: Kurdish Rebellion
Continued Iranian support and manipulation of the
increasing Iranian-assisted insurgent activity in the
drawing Turkey closer to the conflict in the region.
Kurds, coupled with
Kirkuk oil region, are
Tehran's continued support of the Kurds is rapidly straining
Turkish-Iranian relations.
SYRIA: Internal Struggle
Assad's poor health could leave him incapacitated at any time. In the
absence of a named successor, with new pressures in Lebanon, and with an
ever-deteriorating economic situation, the chances of a sudden change of
government continue.
TUNISIA: Increasing Instability
Bourguiba's campaign to suppress all political opposition is escalating
with crackdowns on Islamic fundamentalists. Far from ensuring smooth
succession, however, the regime's efforts are drastically increasing
discontent and ensuring chaos, uncertainty and confusion when the succession
crisis comes. The Libyan threat almost certainly will increase in the
post-Bourguiba period, and Algeria too seems poised to influence the
succession struggle.
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WESTERN EUROPE
GREECE/TURKEY/CYPRUS: Troubled Waters
Turkish allegations that the Greek Cypriot government has established a
training camp in southern Cyprus for Turkish separatist
are
increasing tensions in the Aegean. Implementation of Greek plans to deploy
two armored brigades in northern Thrace--and substantially increase the
staffing of Greek units on Cyprus--could trigger a confrontation. Each side
apparently believes the US can prevent war--an attitude that may encourage
recklessness and lack of restraint, which could trigger sudden confrontation
through miscalculation and escalation.
MALTA/LIBYA: Warming Relations
The Maltese government--which wrested control from the pro-Libyan
opposition party in May--may be debating the price for accepting Libyan
economic inducements.
The pro-Western Maltese
government will have to weigh Libyan promises to alleviate unemployment
against the price of Libyan involvement on the island.
LATIN AMERICA
CHILE: Intransigence
Pinochet appears more determined than ever to maneuver to remain in power
beyond 1989. Having prepared plans for carrying out a major reshuffle of the
army to force his critics into early retirement, Pinochet now seems
determined to run as a civilian with junta backing. Pinochet's actions to
maintain control may precipitate a new crisis of confidence over his
leadership within the rank-and-file armed forces and middle class, fueling
momentum for decisive change before 1989.
HAITI: Storm Warning
The situation continues to deteriorate rapidly. Renewed street violence
and acts of anti-Americanism will continue to endanger the safety of US
citizens. Shortages of food, fuel, and water--plus harsh military
reactions--will increase calls for the ruling council's resignation.
Namphy's private contention that Haiti needs a return of strongman rule seems
almost certain to imperil the presidential elections that are scheduled for
November.
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MEXICO: Future Crisis?
Acute economic problems, austerity measures, and corruption will continue
to generate widespread popular and business dissatisfaction and prompt
sporadic civil disturbances, especially in the northern states.
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS: Continuation of Hostilities
Nicaragua continues to maintain a limited presence inside Honduran border
regions, thereby keeping pressure on the Honduran government to restrict
rebel activities. Honduras is likely to seek concessions and further
reassurances of support from the US, as Managua steps up activities in border
regions. Nb/Warning notes that the potential for Sandinista forces inside
Honduras to fire on US military personnel continues.
PANAMA: Breakpoint
Stiffened by recent successful massive protests, opposition efforts to
unify and force Noriega's resignation appear increasingly successful.
Noriega under siege will continue his demagogic campaign against the US,
crack down toughly on the opposition, and if necessary, install a military
junta. As the crisis evolves, there will be an ever increasing risk that
Noriega will target more sensitive US interests in Panama for subversion.
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
ANGOLA: Prospects for Clash with South Africa
The risk of direct South African-Cuban clashes appears to be growing, as
the Angolan government continues its measured two-front offensive against
UNITA positions in southeast Angola. Should the South Africans view UNITA as
being seriously threatened and intervene in the conflict, Cuban contingency
plans- -call for retaliatory
airstrikes against South African airbases in Namibia, thus increasing the
chances for escalation.
SOUTH AFRICA/FRONTLINE STATES: Confrontation
Conservative electoral gains and deep divisions within the Afrikanner
community have revealed increased domestic polarization that has further
undermined the influence of moderate blacks and whites who seek compromise.
Pretoria's gambit to co-opt South African blacks with a new constitution that
allows for increased black participation in government--but which does not
recognize the concept of one man, one vote--will not provide any meaningful
political power to blacks, nor satisfy their demands for true political
representation. In extending the emergency decree to a quasi-permanent
condition and stifling legitimate dissent the government has acknowledged its
authority can be perpetuated only by force. Externally, Pretoria's
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increasingly coercive measures against the Frontline States afford greater
opportunities for both the West and the East to capitalize on the Frontline
States' heightened sense of vulnerability.
SUDAN/ETHIOPIA: State of Emergency
Prime Minister Sadiq faces increasing challenges to his authority as the
economy worsens and the military stalemate with the southern insurgency
continues. These developments, plus further reductions in US aid and a
cutoff of US security assistance--as required by the Brooke Amendment--will
encourage senior military officers to overthrow the civilian government.
SOVIET UNION/EASTERN EUROPE
EASTERN EUROPE: Under Pressure
To various degrees, the present governments are under increasing
pressures:
Growing economic and political problems, coupled with Gorbachev's
glasnost campaign and Soviet trade demands, have had unsettling
effects on the aging East European leaderships. Prospective
succession dilemmas, particularly in Hungary and Czechoslovakia, are
adding to the potential for instability. In Hungary, strikes and
demonstrations will grow as the impact of recent economic austerity
measures are felt.
Pressures also are great in Romania, where the continuing debt
problems have exacerbated already abject living conditions.
USSR: Massive Need for Hard Currency
The Soviets face substantial reductions in hard currency earning from oil
this year at a time of increasing need for imports for modernization. Moscow
increasingly will: rely on Western credit markets; squeeze oil supplied to
Eastern Europe to try to barter it on the international market; sell more
gold; and try to promote new exports--arms, vehicles, metals, and shipping
services--at bargain prices to gain needed hard currency.
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