NARCOTICS WARNING AND FORECAST MEETING

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91B00776R000100140031-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: January 4, 2017
• Document Release Date: April 22, 2008
• Sequence Number: 31
• Publication Date: July 31, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

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National Intelligence Council
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
SUBJECT: Narcotics Warning and Forecast Meeting
NIC #04312-84
91 JUL 1934
Representatives of the Intelligence Community met on 19 July 1984 to
consider the attached subjects.
/
David Dl. Grits
National Intelligence Officer
for Narcotics
Attachment:
Warning and Forecast Report
a
The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
CL BY SIGNER
DECL OADR
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Narcotics Warning and Forecast Meeting
Production Matters
Dangerous Drugs-Current Situation
Stimulants, depressants and hallucinogens make up the broad category
of abused substances referred to as dangerous drugs. The diversion of
legitimate pharmaceuticals and precursor chemicals continues to be the
main source of international trafficking in dangerous drugs. A
trafficking pattern that poses a particular threat to the US involves the
diversion of chemicals from legitimate European pharmaceutical companies
through transit areas such as Switzerland and the Hamburg Free Trade Zone
to clandestine labs in Latin American countries such as Panama, Mexico,
Colombia and Brazil. These labs are actually "tablet factories" which
reformulate and process the diverted bulk chemicals for shipment to the
US and other countries. Enforcement and control efforts have reduced the
availability of some chemicals that have been used extensively in
dangerous drugs, but traffickers have countered these reductions by using
substitute chemicals to produce counterfeit versions of these drugs.
Forecast
We expect an increasing trend in the use of substitute chemicals in
the production of a wide variety of counterfeit dangerous drugs being
shipped to the US. During the next year, we believe there will be an
increasing threat from traffickers who acquire the technology to produce
precursor chemicals for dangerous drugs.. This will significantly reduce
their dependence on the diversion of legitimate chemicals and make
enforcement efforts more difficult. We anticipate that traffickers will
also increase their efforts to place members of their organizations
within foreign customs control systems to facilitate the processing of
false import/export documents.
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Bulgaria-Current Situation
Party Leader Zhivkov has implicitly acknowledged to the US Ambassador
that foreigners have used Bulgaria as a transit area for drug
trafficking, and he claims to have personally ordered traffickers out of
the country. While we can confirm that there has been a crackdown on
some traffickers, we believe this may reflect a concern on the part of
the Bulgarian Government to tighten the reins on all illegal activities
of foreigners rather than a specific response to US pressure to crack
down on drug trafficking. In addition, we are still uncertain about the
level of Bulgarian Government involvement in trafficking.
Our current evidence continues to point to the multi-purpose state
enterprise, Kintex, as the central coordinator for such smuggling. Our
indirect evidence on Kintex's involvement in drug trafficking, its
organizational structure, its control by Bulgarian intelligence, and
high-level government support for its commercial endeavors strongly
suggest an awareness and complicity of at least some of the ruling elite
in Kintex's narcotics operations. We are still not certain, however, if
this reflects bureaucratic corruption or an officially endorsed
government policy.
Forecast
In the near term, we believe that the current government crackdown on
smuggling will reduce, at least temporarily, the volume of drugs
transiting Bulgaria. The Bulgarian intelligence service will likely be
more cautious in its dealings with trafficking networks, and Kintex will
probably reduce its drug-related activities while international attention
on Bulgaria remains high. In the long term, however, the outlook for
significant reductions in the Bulgarian drug trade is dependent on the
willingness of the government to control Kintex's involvement in
trafficking. This will come only when the Bulgarian Government decides
that the political cost of the drug trade outweighs its hard currency and
intelligence benefits.
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Representatives agreed that Bolivia and Peru are the most likely
sources of coca base for cocaine labs in the US. The current glut of
cocaine on the international market-and the significant increase in
Colombian coca production are forcing Bolivian and Peruvian traffickers
to seek alternate markets for coca base previously shipped to Colombia
for processing. In addition, enforcement efforts have reduced the
availability of precursor chemicals in Latin America, and traffickers are
being forced to alter trafficking patterns in an attempt to gain direct
access to precursor chemicals in the US.
The A/NI0 reiterated the request that representatives provide an
overview of their agency's ongoing and planned research projects. This
information will be included in the CIPC Narcotics Working Group's final
report which is due on 30 September. In addition to CIA's planned
production, to date we have also received responses from Customs and
Coast Guard.
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