NARCOTICS WARNING AND FORECAST MEETING

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91B00776R000100130030-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 25, 2008
• Sequence Number: 30
• Publication Date: April 13, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

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The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Council
NIC #02202-84
13 April 1984
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
SUBJECT: Narcotics Warning and Forecast Meeting
Representatives of the Intelligence Community met on 29 March 1984 to
consider the attached subjects.
Attachments:
Warning and Forecast Report
Agenda
National n e igence icer
for Narcotics
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Narcotics Warning and Forecast Meeting
Production Matters
A. Colombia
Current Crop Estimates: We expect the 1984 coca crop to exceed
the 1983 harvest; although there has not been an increase in coca
plant cultivation, per plant yield increases as the plant matures.
We also expect the 1984 marijuana harvest to at least equal last
year's crop.
Forecast:
We expect coca and marijuana crops in Colombia to increase as
long as demand remains strong and government control of the
countryside is limited.
B. The Bahamas. Current Situation:
The Royal Commission has been granted a 17-week extension to
conduct their investigation of high level drug related corruption.
The Community will consider the preliminary results of the
Commission during the April meeting.
Operational Matters
the regional NNBIS centers are nearing full operational status: The
Miami Center is now fully operational; New Orleans will soon gain
full operational status; the Long Beach Center should be completed
by June 1984; construction work on the El Paso Center is almost
complete; and Chicago and New York lack only
CIA, DIA and USCG are working to increase dissemination
of their reports to the NNBIS centers.
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B. CIPC'Study on Narcotics
The study recommends that the NIO/Narcotics review narcotic
related production schedules for State, DEA, DIA, Customs and the
Coast Guard to ensure a clear focus on key issues and to avoid
duplication. The NIO plans to accomplish this through the warning
meeting process, where all agencies are represented and production
schedules already are discussed.
The study also asks the NIO/Narcotics to solicit from consumers
a list of estimates they want prepared. This is under way. The
current schedule contains: the flow of drug money; the
international cocaine market; the role of Cuba as a safehaven; and
the Bahamas as a transit point. Additional suggestions by Community
members would be appreciated.
To meet the requirement for a review of which countries receive
priority for crop production estimates, the NIO/Narcotics will meet
with appropriate consumers to prepare a prioritized list for
consideration by the Community at next month's Warning Meeting.
The NIO/Narcotics is also asked in the study to promote
information sharing between the Intelligence and Law Enforcement
Communities, meaning DIA, INR, CIA, NSA, DEA, Customs and Coast
Guard. There was some discussion of trying also to circulate
information from police and district attorney files, but all
agencies at the meeting were firmly opposed.
C. Costa Rica Conference on Narcotics
Community participants were impressed with the caliber of
presentations and discussions at the Conference.
The absence of clearances on the part of many of the Conference
participants proved to be a major problem. Many field consumers of
intelligence support information (mainly DEA and Coast Guard) do not
have the clearances for all source information. The problem is that
the field investigations required for clearances take months to
complete.
Members of the Community who attended the conference offered the
following suggestions for future conferences:
-- Allow a looser, more flexible schedule that emphasizes more
small working groups and fewer large assemblies.
-- Hold the conference in the United States to enhance
security considerations (foreign hotels are inappropriate
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sites for candid discussions) and to give foreign based participants
a chance to hold consultations with their headquarters colleagues.
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Agenda for April Warning and Forecast Meeting
The next monthly Warning and Forecast Meeting will be held on
Thursday, 19 April 1984 at 1400 hours
Representatives should be prepared to discuss topics
listed below, remembering our emphasis on identifying collection
gaps and forecasting the future rather than describing current
intelligence findings.
Production Matters
A. The Bahamas
Current situation--We will discuss the preliminary findings
of the Royal Commission's investigation into charges of
drug related corruption in the Bahamas.
25X1;1
-- Forecast of the impact of the findings of the Royal
Commissioners.
B. Belize
-- Current situation--The government has suspended their
program of spraying marijuana fields.
-- Forecast--How will this affect the supply of marijuana to
the US market? What is the outlook of the next six months?
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