MONTHLY WARNING MEETINGS FOR MARCH 1984

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91B00776R000100130027-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 25, 2008
• Sequence Number: 27
• Publication Date: April 11, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

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T 0 P S E C R E T
11 April 1984
MEMORANDUM FOR:
VIA:
FROM :
SUBJECT:
Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
Chairman, National Intelligence Council
Vice Chairman, National Intelligence Council
National Intelligence Officer for Warning
Monthly Warning Meetings for March 1984
1. Summary of key warning issues:
US/Soviet Relations
Through the US elections we believe that the Soviet
posture will be carefully balanced between trying not to appear
totally intransigent, particularly on arms control
negotiations, while not making any move which would suggest
that US policy is working or help the President's reelection.
This will be a subtle public relations game for which they are
gearing up by providing additional funds to Arbatov's
publicists to travel to the US and engage in discussions with
Americans.
We have been reporting for many months on the increasing
violence in Punjab state. The Hindu-Sikh conflict has resulted
in over one-hundred deaths in the last five weeks and now
threatens to spill over to adjoining states. The use of the
Army to control the violence in Punjab and surrounding states
could, particularly in this election year, be viewed as a sign
of political vulnerability. Additionally, the fact that the
Army is 12% Sikh could result in serious problems within the
Army.
T 0 P S E C R E T
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? T 0 P S E C R E T
Southern Africa
The drought in the region will have significant impact on
government and anti-government activities in every country of
the region. It will also stimulate increasing requests for
international aid to alleviate the starvation and economic
difficulties.
Cyprus
Turkish Cypriot forces for many years have been on the
strong side of the power balance. However, there is now
general agreement the Greek Cypriot forces have either reached,
or may be nearing, military parity. As Turkish and Turkish
Cypriot forces become more aware of this shift in balance, the
possibility of military confrontation on Cyprus will increase.
Iran- Iraq
We continue to anticipate a large-scale Iranian offensive,
probably centered in the al-Basrah region. The delays over the
last month have probably been the result of logistics problems
including the redeployment of troops and munitions, as well as
the deliberate flooding in the marshes which severely impedes
movement. There are some tenuous indications of morale
problems among Iranian troops, but more information is
required. NIO/NESA notes the need to focus on the possible
consequences of an Iraqi collapse under continued Iranian
pressure. While deemed unlikely at present, the implications
for other Persian Gulf countries would be dramatic.
PLO Activity in Israel
Israeli concern is growing that both pro-and anti-Arafat
PLO factions may be responsible for the recent large-scale
terrorist attacks in Israel. Arafat needs to adopt a more
militant posture to firm up his position, and, thus, may well
feel compelled to increase his efforts to infiltrate in to the
West Bank and Israel proper.
Philippines
Support for a boycott of the upcoming election is
increasing as Marcos and his people appear to be willing to
manipulate voter registration and thus rig the election. IMF
negotiations have been stopped until after the elections and
the economy continues to deteriorate. The insurgency continues
to grow. The effect of both the political and economic
situations on the military's attitudes remains unclear.
Although not definitive, there continue to be disturbing
reports on the state of Marcos' health.
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T 0 P S E C R E T
3. Trend Commentary
With the exception of the situation in Lebanon, which has fallen off
the warning screen for the time being, the warning issues have remained
fairly consistent over the last three months. It should be noted
however, that the Soviets did conduct one of their largest fleet
exercises, which while it featured many firsts, should not be that
surprising, but rather viewed as part of the trend toward larger and more
Attachments:
Warning Reports (h/w)
5
T 0 P S E C R E T
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