FORECAST AND WARNING ASSESSMENT FOR WESTERN EUROPE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91B00776R000100130017-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 25, 2008
• Sequence Number: 17
• Publication Date: May 25, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2008/11/25: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000100130017-9
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The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Council
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
NIC 03127-84
25 May 1984
THROUGH: National Intelligence Officer for Warning
National-Intelligence Officer for Western Europe
Forecast and Warning Assessment for Western Europe
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Approved For Release 2008/11/25: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000100130017-9
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II. Europe's Economic Perspectives: The Two Summits
Of the two meetings -- the 7-9 June London Economic Summit and the
26-27 June EC Summit -- analysts believe the Community gathering will
be more significant. Analysts do not anticipate any major disputes to
arise during the London meeting. European leaders will be in basic
agreement with the US view that economic prospects are improving,
although some leaders will emphasize that Europe's economic recovery is
still very fragile and subject to setbacks if interest rates and
protectionism are not controlled. Thus, unless interest rates rise
dramatically over the next several weeks, analysts do not foresee any
great difficulty reaching a consensus on the Summit communique.
Analysts did note that there could be some minor frictions, both
between Europeans and with the US, over the communique's reference to a
new tariff reduction round, Persian Gulf oil problems and Western
military contingencies, and Western steps to stop terrorism.
At the EC Summit, the budget issue will dominate the discussions,
although analysts do not believe that the British problem of limiting
the size of future budget contributions will be solved. The basic
issue remains whether the EC will adopt to a fixed percentage of each
member's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as a ceiling for future
contributions (which the UK favors) in place of an annual ad hoc rebate
for the UK (which the FRG and others favor). While most EC members
agree with Thatcher that the Briti h should
second largest net contributor
UNUUULU thereby hasten the need for emergency
funding of the Common Agricultural Program this fall.
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