WARNING AND FORECAST REPORT: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91B00776R000100120022-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 10, 2009
• Sequence Number: 22
• Publication Date: January 27, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

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The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Council
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NIC #00456-84/1
27 January 1984
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
THROUGH : National Intelligence Officer for Warning
National Intelligence Officer for Africa
SUBJECT : Warning and Forecast Report: Sub-Saharan Africa
Community representatives and specialists met on 17 January 1984 with the
NIO/AF as chairman. The attached report has not been coordinated with the
other participants but is being circulated to them. If they feel their views
have been misinterpreted, or 71 hey have significant additional concerns,
I'll report further to you.
Attachment
NIC #00456-84
STAT
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NIC #00456-84
WARNING AND FORECAST REPORT: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
ANGOLA
Looking ahead over the next weeks past South Africa's withdrawal of its
mechanized units from southern Angola, there is little doubt that Pretoria
will continue to maintain reconnaissance activities inside Angola--perhaps as
many as 1,000 men--to monitor whether the Cubans, Angolans and/or SWAPO is
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NIGERIA
All of the Community representatives agreed that Nigeria should be
watched carefully over the next few months. They shared the view that the
senior military leadership had moved to preempt lesser-ranking officers from
moving first. There was a general consensus that the situation is fluid and
volatile and another coup is possible in the months ahead. In contrast to the
recent coup, a counter coup might be bloody. It might be lead by younger,
more radical officers who are unhappy with the ethnic makeup of the current
regime and who may believe that the new military leadership is not taking hold
and decisively dealing with corruption and the economic situation, the issues
the new regime claimed inspired them to sweep aside the civilian government.
Some analysts fear the country is headed for prolonged economic and political
instability that in time would begin to resemble Ghana.
TANZANIA/ZANZIBAR
The threats to political stability on Zanzibar that seemed evident
recently appear to have subsided following the movement of mainland troops to
the island. Nevertheless, relations between Tanzania and Zanzibar in their
troubled federation will continue to fester over the next few months adding
one more problem to the president's already overflowing plate of domestic
problems that are contributing to the general decline of Tanzania. Much
depends on Nyerere's handling of Zanzibar's desire for looser ties with the
mainland. He tends to delay solutions, a situation that may not satisfy
Zanzibaris who are pressing him to make changes in the constitutional
arrangements between the two areas that would loosen ties between the island
and the mainland. DIA believes that the longer mainland troops remain on the
island the greater the risk of public discontent on Zanzibar. In sum,
Tanzania is another serious trouble spot in the making.
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FREE FORUM
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Concern was expressed about how long the military stalemate would last
now that the OAU conference has failed. In view of the lack of progress
toward a political settlement, the Libyans may try to push Goukouni to?declare
a separate state, thus putting the French on the spot, particularly if support
in Africa for Habre should weaken as a result.
Sudan
Dissident activities in southern Sudan continue to threaten the Nimeiri
government. The infiltration of dissidents from Ethiopia into the south are
continuing and could escalate. If it does, it could set off a vicious cycle
of insurgent action and military reaction that further destabilize the
situation.
Ethiopia
Mengistu is again planning another military campaign against nouthern
insurgents. Analysts felt that another failure would fuel military resentment
against Mengistu's leadership.
Senegal
The pro-Western government of President Diouf could be faced with popular
discontent over the impending tough austerity measures that are to be enacted.
Sierra Leone and Ivory Coast
Sierra Leone and Ivory Coast may soon become new African trouble spots.
Analysts fear that the recent Nigerian coup could be a precedent for
discontented elements in these and other African countries to take action
against the established regimes.
SECRET/NOFORN
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Approved For Release 2009/07/10: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000100120022-4