MONTHLY WARNING MEETINGS FOR FEBRUARY 1984

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91B00776R000100120003-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 10, 2009
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: March 13, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2009/07/10: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000100120003-5
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NIC #01670-84
13 March 1984
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
VIA Chairman, National Intelligence Council
FROM David Y. McManis
National Intelligence Officer for Warning
SUBJECT Monthly Warning Meetings for February 1984
1. Summary of key warning issues:
Soviet Leadership
If we are to understand activities in the
Kremlin, caution is required to glean the
truth from the information and disinformation
emanating from the USSR about top Soviet
leadership. "American Opinion Handlers"
managed to mislead us about Mr. Andropov's
status. It is clearer now that the naming of
Chernenko was the realization of concluded
debates and that a power struggle is not
ensuing.
Iran-Iraq
Expect a major Iranian offensive to begin
by the end of March, probably centering on the
al Basra front. The Iraqi response is almost
certain to include air attacks on economic
targets--specifically Khark Island and ships
near Iranian ports.
Baghdad threatened to counter the Iranian
offensive with new weapons. Analysts expect a
widespread use of mustard agents; there is
concern that Iraq's CW program may make nerve
agents available by late summer. Use of nerve
agents has implications including breach of a
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significant CW threshold, a severe Iranian
reaction, Iraqi supply to other Arab States,
and rationale for Israeli military actions
against the new weapons capability.
Nigeria
Punishment of former officials charged
with corruption may be an indicator to junior
military officers of the government's
intentions. Rumors of dissatisfaction in the
officer corps persist and could lead to
another coup, especially if regional unrest
continues.
Sudan
Analysts are concerned about the growing
insurgency in the south and President
Nimeiri's efforts to deal with it. He has not
moved decisively as in previous crises, but
forceful action is required to avoid a
prolonged insurgency.
Chile
Prospects for political confrontation in
Chile in the next few months is better than
50/50. Protests have been proclaimed for
March and April. May and June have been
troubled times in the past. A serious crisis
could result.
Pakistan/Afghanistan/USSR/India
Afghan aircraft attacked Afghan refugee
camps in Pakistan in late January. There is
also a Soviet media campaign to incite Indian
animosity toward Pakistan. Most analysts
doubt that the Soviets have launched a new
phase of their involvement in south Asia, but
the situation needs careful observation.
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3.. Trend Commentary
Yugoslavia
Last month's warning report highlighted
the economic and political situation in
Yugoslavia. There has been some improvement
there based on partial agreements in IMF
negotiations, but continued close observation
is required.
USSR
We continue focusing on Soviet and Cuban
interest in Angola
Iran/Iraq
Basic strategies continue with Iraq
maintaining a defensive position and Iran on
the offensive despite heavy losses. Potential
crises continue to threaten other countries,
but most nations are watching passively.
Chile
Instability is increasing
Nigeria
Coup potential continues
Sudan
The insurgency in the south continues to
grow.
Weapons
Issues of nuclear development in Pakistan
and Argentina and chemical weapons use in the
Iran/Iraq war, Kampuchea and Afghanistan are
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coming to the fore as major issues with
potential long-term impact on international
dialogue and war-fighting capabilities.
Attachments:
Warning Reports (h/w)
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