MONTHLY WARNING AND FORECAST MEETING FOR MAY 1984

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91B00776R000100090053-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: January 4, 2017
• Document Release Date: April 22, 2008
• Sequence Number: 53
• Publication Date: June 11, 1985
• Content Type: MEMO

NIC# 03375-84
11 June 1985
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
THROUGH : Chairman, National Intelligence Council
FROM : David Y. McManis
SUBJECT : Monthly Warning and Forecast Meeting for May 1984
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1. Summary of key warning issues:
USSR
Soviet intransigence towards the US continues to be evidenced
through vituperative propaganda, large Soviet military exercises,
highlighted deployments of submarines near U.S. coasts, a pressure
application scenario in Berlin. and withdrawal from the Summer
Olympics.
We (NIO/USSR and NIO/W) agree with the foregoing but would go further
and note the likelihood of still bolder Soviet initiatives to try to
discredit the U.S. and against which we must be fully on guard.
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Nicaragua
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The main runway at Puente Huete will probably be completed by
October, but will lack support facilities. Additionally, construction at
Bluefields and Puerto Cabezas Airfields is progressing at a faster pace
than in the past. The Cubans may risk flying MIG aircraft to an airfield
despite inadequate facilities and defenses when POL is available.
Suriname
A crisis may be looming as a result of the near depletion of foreign
reserves and the need for harsher economic austerity measures. With
Prime Minister Udenhout increasingly undermined by Army Commander
Bouterse, Suriname may turn to Cuba for economic and military aid in the
event that violence returns to the country. In the absence of Brazilian
or Western aid, Cuba may see conditions as favorable for a return to
Suriname.
Philippines
The strong showing of the opposition parties in the recent elections
shattered the view of Marcos' invincibility, but also slowed the
political momentum of the extreme left who did not participate in the
elections. The Philippines most serious immediate problem is its
financial status. Austerity measures required by the IMF will be
difficult for Marcos to steer through the assembly when it convenes in
July. He probably cannot meet reform requirements before the end of the
year. The situation will be political and economic confusion.
Dominican Republic
President Blanco's prevention of a general strike on 9 May through
firmness and concessions to workers is a positive sign, but new unrest is
likely with IMF-mandated austerity measures.
Sud an
The internal political situation in Sudan remains tense. Opposition
to Nimeiri 's lamization and other policies is beainnina to surface in
the military.
New instability in Sudan could presage responses from
Libya or Egypt which may lead to a request for US support in the region.
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2. Trend Commentary
Rom an i
In October 1983, we observed that economic problems, lower living
standards, and a hard winter would likely cause additional popular unrest
resulting in demonstrations and strikes. Since then, following a severe
winter, the economy has declined further. There have been problems in
energy, transportation and food supplies. The regime is extremely
concerned about the mood of the industrial force, but the population has
remained generally quiescent. More frequent or larger occurances of
unrest would be our first indication that a popular breaking point was
approaching.
Dutch Decision on INF
The Dutch decision that effectively postpones an INF position puts
added importance on allied attitudes. CIA and INR analysts believe that
Italian Prime Minister Craxi's Lisbon statements on a weapons moratorium,
while probably a political mistake, reflect genuine Italian thinking that
a new initiative may be in order. These developments warrant close
attention for signs of new allied positions during the remainder of 1984.
Iran/Iraq
Despite Iran's logistical and military problems, an offensive during
the Ramadan period is possible. Iraq should contain the most likely
offensive in the Basra area.
There is continued concern about violence in the Punjab state, and
the introduction of regular army forces reflects the high level of
government frustration. Recent Indian troop movements and other military
activities in the Kashmir may be exercises, but given India's internal
problems, may be indicative of a diversion, which would include an
incident involving Pakistan.
Cyprus
The trend is toward increasing instability due to Greek
reinforcements on the island, a poor Greek Cypriot performance in its
Security Council presentation, and a general belief that prolonged
stalemate is to the disadvantage of the Greek position.
The UN Security Council resolution on Cyprus marks a transition from
active diplomacy by the Secretary General and the disputants to a period
of stalemate and increasing tensions. The recent visit by a Soviet
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deputy foreign minister to discuss the problem with Greek Cypriots also
bodes for increasing instability as Greek Cypriots seem to be losing
international sympathy.
3. Key Collection Issues
USSR
The absence of military support to harvest operations could be an
important warning indicator of a reluctance to reduce force readiness.
Therefore collection of potential Soviet force readiness improvement is a
most significant near-term collection issue. We believe the current
collection strategy is sufficiently targeted against these readiness
issues.
China
High priority is being given to the Zhang Aiping visit to the US in
June. Foreknowledge of Zhang 's topics and Chinese desires relating to
specific weapons systems would be very helpful,
The Chinese view of Soviet cancellation of the Arkhipov visit would
give us insights into the US/China/USSR relationship and Chinese
willingness to accommodate a new visit.
Philippines
NPA insurgency activities remain the highest priority intelligence
gap. NPA activities are likely to gain even more importance in coming
months given the economic uncertainties facing the Marcos government.
Nicaragua
Continued collection is required to determine if the Cubans are
preparing to deliver unassembled or operational MIG aircraft to
Nicaragua.
Suriname
All collection sources should be alert to signs of Suriname turning
to Cuba for economic or military aid.
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4. Comments on April Collection Issues:
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