WARNING MARCHES ON

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91B00776R000100080016-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: January 4, 2017
• Document Release Date: April 22, 2008
• Sequence Number: 16
• Publication Date: May 3, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2008/04/22 : CIA-RDP91 B00776R000100080016-6
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SECRET 0
The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Council
NIC #02656-84
3 May 1984
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
VIA: Chairman, National Intelligence Council
FROM: David Y. McManis
National Intelligence Officer for Warning
SUBJECT: Warning Marches On
1. Two events are about to occur which represent a culmination of major
efforts to respond to your direction in broadening the understanding of
warning. The implication of these events is probably not well understood by
the community but will become clearer over the ensuing years.
2. The first of these is the completion of NIE 4-1, which is sailing
through the final coordination process. This estimate, which has consumed a
great deal of the resources of my office as well as those of Ted Atkeson, will
establish the warning doctrine in an unprecedented way. The key theological
issues are: that warning is not just a military problem and, indeed, includes
technological, economic, political, and other social activities; that the
decision/policy maker is critical to the warning process; and that ambiguity
and early warning will always go together, that is, there will rarely, if
ever, be a real warning that is not ambiguous.
3. The second major event will be the mounting of the National Warning
Training Course by Office of Training and Education for the community. The
dry run will be in June and the first formal course in September 84. The
course is designed for the mid-career analyst, but the efforts underway to
develop the lesson plans and course materials will have direct application to
other forums, including the Foreign Service Institute.
4. Together these represent some giant steps forward.
vid Y. cManis
S E C R E T
Approved For Release 2008/04/22 : CIA-RDP91 B00776R000100080016-6
 Approved For Release 2008/04/22 : CIA-RDP91 B00776R000100080016-6
I
SECRET
NIC #02656-84
3 May 1984
SUBJECT: Warning Marches On
Distribution:
1 - DCI
1 - DDCI
1 - Executive Director
1 - SA/DCI/IS
1 - Executive Registry
1 - C/NIC
1 - VC/NIC (Mr. Meyer)
1 - A/NIO/W
1 - NWS
1 - NIO/W Chron
1 - NIO/W Subject File
Approved For Release 2008/04/22 : CIA-RDP91 B00776R000100080016-6