ENHANCED MONTHLY WARNING AND FORECAST REPORT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91B00776R000100070036-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: January 4, 2017
• Document Release Date: April 22, 2008
• Sequence Number: 36
• Publication Date: January 4, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

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NIO/W
4 January 1984
NOTE FOR: Chairman, National Intelligence Council
FROM David Y. McManis
NIO for Warning
SUBJECT : Enhanced Warning Report
In response to your guidance, I have drafted
the following strawman which I think is
feasible. Whatever we do should be
evolutionary, and I want to be careful of
biting off more'than we can chew.
As I mentioned, I'm off to the Pacific
until the end of the month you
agree, suggest that work up
a few sample articles and a warning list"
for consideration by you when I return.
Let us know where you agree and disagree
with the possible candidate subjects, or if
you have some other possibilities.
Attachment:
Memo
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STAT'
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The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Council
4 January 1984
MEMORANDUM FOR: Chairman, National Intelligence Council
FROM David Y. McManis
National Intelligence Officer for Warning
SUBJECT Enhanced Monthly Warning and Forecast Report
1. GOAL: To enhance the Monthly Warning and Forecast
Report with independent analyses, drawing heavily on the doctrine
being developed under the National Intelligence Officer for
Warning. The product should be aimed at NFIB principals and
selected Cabinet officers.
2. DISCUSSION: As currently constituted the Office of the
NIO/W is able to monitor only a small flow of intelligence
traffic each day. This has permitted some focused attention on
potential threat situations, but in no way should be considered a
realistic worldwide monitoring capability. Where possible we
have looked to current events to illustrate specific doctrinal
points, e.g., the problem of "perception" in dealing with the
defensive buildup in Cuba.
3. To enhance the monthly report an attempt should be made
to provide a service that is. unique and not just another
competitive analysis. Care should also be exercised not to do
something that in some way might relieve line elements of
responsibility for warning. There is a requirement to elicit
more community participation but this should be done without
setting up yet another working group. There may be some reason
for consideration of closer coordination with the Watch Report.
4. PROPOSAL: With minimal staff augmentation, the
following approach to an enhanced Monthly Warning Report is
suggested.
5. First, as we are beginning to do, emphasis should be
placed on the reports of the other NIO's selecting those elements
of their reports which have specific warning significance.
Selection is made partially on the basis of what has been heard
by NWS in the Monthly Warning Meetings, not just the content of
the report. NIO/W should also stimulate the other NIO's to
address the implications of their warning reports. Too often the
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reader is left with the question, "Well, what does that really
portend?"
6. Secondly, one or two articles from the Warning Staff
could be included, which would have as their primary goal the
stimulation of non-traditional thinking about warning problems.
These could be of several varied types.
--Evaluation of specific warning problems from
a unique methodological perspective. One example
with some currency would be a generic examination
of the terrorism problem emphasizing the need to
evaluate the threat against the background of a
.psychological-sociological understanding of the
terrorist or his organization. Another, which is
now being included in work by NIO/LA, would have
been the importance of Cuban perceptions of the
U.S. as a threat in evaluating their defensive
buildup.
--Should unusual situations be identified
through indicator analysis performed by OGI in
support to the Quarterly Political Instability
report or out of the Worldwide Indications
Monitoring System, they could be highlighted if
believed to be more than near-term, short-lived
phenomena.
--Some NIEs, intelligence assessments and,
occasionally, the JIC and JIO assessments have
warning judgments of more than usual import. When
this is the case, these could be highlighted and
perhaps given some unique perspective.
7. To reiterate, these analyses should be complimentary to.
other efforts and not competitive. Where we feel strongly about
a development we believe it more appropriate to work through the
responsible target NIO.
8. Finally, we might wish to consider a short list of
future warning concerns. This could in part be generated through
the mechanisms of the Weekly Watch Committee meetings. Insofar
as possible, these should reflect not just our views but those of
responsible parties throughout the community. Such a list today
would consider, inter alia, Philippine stability; the potential
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for terrorism in South Korea, with the Pope's Visit, the Asian
Games and the Olympics coming up over the next four years; the
DELTA submarine-under-polar-ice threat; developing instability in
Mexico; Saudi instability (long term); deterioration of Warsaw
Pact cohesiveness. The article would hopefully capture some of
the minority views.
9. In sum, I think it possible to evolve the Monthly
Warning and Forecast report into a product which really could
serve to stimulate both the intelligence community and also, more
importantly, the policy community. If it were done properly, it
could also be used in the development of long-term planning
objectives.
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S E C R E T
4 January 1984
SUBJECT: Enhanced Monthly Warning and Forecast Report
Distribution:
Orig - C/NIC
1 - VC/NIC (Mr. Meyer)
1 - VC/NIC (Mr. Waterman)
1 - A/NIO/W
1 - NWS
1 - NIO/W Chron
1 - NIO/W Subject File
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