AN ALTERNATIVE VIEW OF SOVIET-AMERICAN RELATIONS IN 1984

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91B00776R000100070020-2
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: January 4, 2017
• Document Release Date: April 22, 2008
• Sequence Number: 20
• Publication Date: February 7, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

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The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Council
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7 February 1984
MEMORANDUM FOR: All NIO's
FROM David Y. McManis
National Intelligence Officer for Warning
SUBJECT An Alternative View of Soviet-American
Relations in 1984
1. The most recent issue of the New York Review of Books
has an article by Seweryn Bialer of Columbia University entitled,
"Danger in Moscow." I recommend this article as an alternative
view of U.S.-Soviet relations in 1984 and ask for your thoughts.
2. Professor Bialer supports U.S. policy initiatives under
President Reagan but, after visiting Moscow three times since
Andropov came to power, he wonders if the administration
appreciates that the mood in Moscow is one of either anger at the
official level, or war hysteria at the level of the average
Muscovite. Anti-American propaganda in the USSR is reminiscent
of the Stalin era and even internationally minded scholars are
publishing virulent anti-U.S. "counterpropaganda." As a
consequence, the Soviet Union may seek to reassert its greatness
at home and abroad. Soviet officials at all levels are
responding intensely to real or imagined. slights from Washington
because they genuinely believe that the administration does not
see the USSR as a global power. They have come to expect the
worst from this administration and, in fact, do not foresee any
reduction in American military spending if the Democrats win the
presidency in 1984. Bialer says that Soviet leaders have been
hurt by the rhetoric of the U.S. government and may have decided
that any attempt to improve relations with Reagan would be
futile. Therefore, they regard the 1984 U.S. presidential
elections as the major problem confronting Soviet foreign policy.
3. Bialer writes that the Soviets are well aware of their
vulnerability with a weak economy, unstable relations with China,
and the drain of resources caused by their allies around the
world. Andropov's illness, while disquieting to the Soviets, has
mysteriously produced more loyalty rather than dissension on the
part of Soviet leaders, possibly because of an intense feeling of
patriotism in the face of the American challenge. All of this
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does not necessarily lead to a cautious Soviet foreign policy,
says Bialer, but it might provoke.a greater willingness by the
Soviets to take risks out of fear that the USSR is not being
taken ser.iously enough by the U.S. government. While on the
surface Moscow may appear to be on the defensive, Soviet leaders
may be seeking an opportunity somewhere in the world to assert
Soviet power.
4. Bialer concludes by stating that Soviet leaders may
believe that the correlation of forces in international affairs
may now be tilted toward the United States, but they will not be
content to let them stay that way. Bialer thinks that the United
States must soften its rhetoric and acknowledge i.ts strong
position in international affairs by seeking to reduce tensions
and seek a genuine peace. Otherwise, a serious confrontation
could result that neither side really wants.
Attachment:
Article
Approved For Release 2008/04/22 : CIA-RDP91 B00776R000100070020-2
 Approved For Release 2008/04/22 : CIA-RDP91 B00776R000100070020-2
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7 February 1984
SUBJECT: An Alternative View of Soviet-American Relations in 84
Distribution:
1 - Each NIO (w/att)
1 - C/NIC (w/att)
1 - VC/NIC (Mr. Meyer) (w/att)
1 - VC/NIC (Mr. Waterman) (w/att)
1 - A/NIO/W (w/att)
1 - NWS (w/att)
1 - NIO/W Chron (w/o att)
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