MILITARY ANALYSIS COURSE (MAC) - 1

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91B00776R000100060025-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: January 4, 2017
• Document Release Date: April 21, 2008
• Sequence Number: 25
• Publication Date: December 7, 1983
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2008/04/21: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000100060025-8
S E C R E T V
The Director of Central Intelligence
NIC #8814-83
7 December 1983
National Intelligence Council
MEMORANDUM FOR: OTE/IT/AT
FROM
Assistant National n e ig Officer
for Warning
SUBJECT Military. Analysis Course (MAC) - 1
1. The attached outline is sent to you for use with the
"Introduction to Indications and Warning" Block of MAC-1. We are
pleased that you plan to increase the time allotted for that
block to one hour and thirty minutes. That period will allow
sufficient time for the discussion that will probably follow the
presentation.
I look forward to participating in this part of the course
as well as the seminar that follows the next day.
Attachment:
As stated (h/w)
25X1
25X1
S E C R E T
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OUTLINE OF NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE OFFICER FOR WARNING
BRIEFING ON THE NATIONAL WARNING SYSTEM
I. Introductory overview
A. Importance of perceptions
1. Views of government/intelligence
2. Historical bias
B. Oct '73 Middle East War - a warning failure
C. Today's capabilities to warn
D. Technology problems for warning
E. Warning the critical element for preparedness
1. Analysis
2. Ambiguity
3. Early judgments for multiple options
4. The approach to warning
II. Warning definitions
A. Definitions critical to understand the task
1. Iterative process over time
2. Focus on decision makers
B. Strategic and tactical warning definitions
1. Too narrow
2. Focus too late in the cycle
C. Warning of a developing political or economic crisis
D. Warning of war
E. Warning of attack
F. Acceptance of warning by decision makers
III. National Warning Structure
A. National Level
1. DCI, NIC, NIO's
2. Operations and Intelligence Centers
a. Functions
b. Informal network
S E C R E T
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S E C R E T
B. Field Level
1. Collection, analysis, reporting
2. Communications interface
C. Warning Vehicles
1. Formal products
2. Committees/Meetings
3. Informal net
D. Role of NIO/Warning
1.
2.
Responsibilities
Tasks
IV.
Warning Methodology
A.
The Warning Cycle
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Recognition
Validation
Definition
Communication
Evaluation
Action
B.
Warning Outcomes
1.
Success
a.
b.
Increase in options
Reasonable basis for action
2.
Failure
a.
b.
Systemic failure
False alarms
3.
Near
a.
b.
Misses
Recognition leads to action
Communication develops future vigilance
4.
Correctness vs. useful intelligence
C.
Repeated Warnings
1.
Gradually developing harm
2.
Sustaining sensitivity
D.
Consensus and "mainstreaming"
E.
Alternative views
V. Some Problems in Warning
A. Analysis and near-real-time collection
S E C R E T
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1. State of the Art
a. What made an expert?
b. How far have we come?
2. Implication of our technology
a. Data processing vs. analysis
b. Information glut and data bases
3. Automation solutions and analysis and warning
S. Managing warning
VI. Warning application
A. Early warning, ambiguity and opportunity to act
B. Emphasis on options before military response
S E C R E T
Approved For Release 2008/04/21: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000100060025-8