LETTER TO DAVID C. MCGAFFEY FROM DAVID Y. MCMANIS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91B00776R000100050025-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: January 4, 2017
• Document Release Date: April 21, 2008
• Sequence Number: 25
• Publication Date: November 1, 1983
• Content Type: LETTER

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The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Council
Mr. David C. McGaffey
Coordinator for Political Training
School of Professional Studies
Foreign Service Institute
Room 1105
1400 Key Boulevard
Arlington, VA 22209
Dear David,
1 November 1983
I want to take this opportunity to welcome you formally to
our national warning training working group and to state once
again my pleasure at our recent meeting on warning and training
ideas. The discussion disclosed we share the desire to improve
the training of reporting and analysis officers, and we agree
that better understanding of processes, as well as the
substantive issues, will help make this country more secure
against external threats.
My staff has reviewed the materials covering FSI courses.
There are many topics, ideas, even presentations, which we can
exchange. Three of yours stand out from a very large and
enticing field: "What is Analysis?" in the Methods Course; "The
NSC System: Policy and Intelligence," also in the Methods
Course, and "The Psycho-cultural Dimension of Analysis" in the
Analytical Reporting Skills course.
I believe we could make an important contribution in the
Executive Seminar's Unit 26, which addresses, "The Role of
Intelligence in Foreign Policy." Our treatments of the National
Intelligence Warning System and the history of warnings, its
problems and prospects would fall right in place. In the
Orientation Course, I think some remarks on the national warning
system would be appropriate, either in Week 4, when a day is
spent at CIA, or in Week 7, during the day spent at the Pentagon.
In the Methods Course, exchanges of ideas might be more
practical than outright presentations. For example, the
treatment of the National Intelligence Community (Day 3) might
profit from a description of how the community organizes itself
for warning purposes. Some of our ideas might be useful in the
presentations on Days 5 and 12: What is analysis and the Psycho-
cultural Dimension of Analysis. Ideas about evidence might
follow neatly the discussion of analysis and the psycho-cultural
presentation would be well supplemented by some treatment of the
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superb work on the last topic.
analyst's cognitive processes. The topic on Days 16 and 17,
"Estimates and Forecasts" could be usefully expanded to
"Warnings, Estimates and Forecasts." Additionally, we would be
willing to provide a warning viewpoint to your case studies,
especially those of Afghanistan or Poland (once you added it).
Finally, you might consider scouting talent for future
presentations on the sources of intelligence, evidence itself and
decision making generally. Both ~~ and~have done CSTAT
Again, thanks for your interest and participation. Our
cooperation will provide large, if difficult to measure, benefits
to both our enterprises.
National Intelligence,,8 ficer for Warning
Approved For Release 2008/04/21: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000100050025-9
 Approved For Release 2008/04/21: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000100050025-9
1 November 1983
SUBJECT: Letter to David McGaffey, FSI
Distribution:
Orig - Addressee
1 - C/NIC
1 - VC/NIC (Mr. Waterman)
1 - NIO/W
1 - A/NIO/W
1 - NWS
1 - NIO/W Chron
1 - NIO/W Subject File
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