EAST ASIA WARNING ASSESSMENT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91B00776R000100020037-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 3, 2009
• Sequence Number: 37
• Publication Date: August 19, 1983
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2009/02/03: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000100020037-9
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National Intelligence Council
19 August 1983
MEMORANDUM FOR : Acting Director of Central Intelligence
National Intelligence Officer for Warning
Assistant National Intelligence Officer for
East Asia
SUBJECT : East Asia Warning Assessment
Community representatives discussed the following topics at the 17 August
Warning Meeting.
II. Regional Developments
A. Korea -- the Seoul IPU Conference
CIA reported that South Korea can be expected to
uncover a greater percentage of North Korea infiltration attempts
prior to the 2 October Interparliamentary Union Conference
because of its increased defense posture and more aggressive
search operations. Seoul's continuing concern over Pyongyang's
intention to disrupt the conference may be seen in President
Chun's consideration of a plan to declare a "semi-alert," and in
media calls for "swift retailiation" to incidents provoked by the
North.
Pyongyang appears to be resigned to the fact that the conference
will occur as scheduled, and therefore will not risk damaging its
standing with nonaligned nations by openly disruptive acts.
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B. North and South Korean Relations with China
CIA summarized recent contacts between Pyongyang,
Beijing, and Seoul. Chinese steps to regularize contacts with
Seoul have included: measures to ensure that the South will
treat hijackers in accord with international protocols and
attempts to sensitize the North to more frequent contacts with
international delegations. Beijing's own policies regarding
international conferences are expected to be keyed to the South's
treatment of the May hijackers of a Chinese civil airliner.
Since the hijacking incident, Seoul appears to have changed
tactics in regard to relations with Pyongyang and Beijing. The
South is no longer viewed as over-eager to compromise on
principles, and has not encouraged allies to raise the issue of
cross-recognition.
C. Burma
CIA reviewed political implications of recent
cabinet changes and reported that the removal of general Tin Oo
is thought to be related to his obvious attempts to assume-
greater authority. Chairman Ne Win, who is viewed as favoring a
leadership coalition as a successor to his government, is thought
to believe that General Tin Oo would be an unaccpetable addition
to such a coalition. Tin Oo is not expected to reassume any
position of major consequence in the future, but may be allowed
to advise Chairman Ne Win. Although recent reports indicate that
the Soviets may feel that Tin Oo's ouster.was in their best
interests, participants did not believe that Burma is now more
pro-Soviet. Government policies are expected to remain
unchanged.
Approved For Release 2009/02/03: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000100020037-9
 Approved For Release 2009/02/03: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000100020037-9
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E. President Reagan's November Trip to East Asia
Bob Randolph of State reported that trip support requests to date
focus primarily on policy issues and that only minimal tasking
has thus far been levied on the Community. Preparatory visits to
countries on the President's agenda by senior White House
officials began in June, and will include follow-ups this month,
in September- al trips planned for early
November. support requested by the White
House will include input from appropriate Ambassadors and will be
tailored for the President in a new format.
III. Interagency Work -- The Assistant NIO reported on the status
of Estimates currently in production and reviewed a list of new
titles under consideration.
25X1
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Approved For Release 2009/02/03: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000100020037-9