WARNING REPORT: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91B00776R000100020027-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 5, 2008
• Sequence Number: 27
• Publication Date: September 22, 1983
• Content Type: MEMO

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SECRET
The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Council
NIC #6840-83/1
22 September 1983
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
THROUGH : National Intelligence Officer for Warning
rtC i y d , a elligence officer for Africa
SUBJECT : Warning Report: Sub-Saharan Africa n
Community representatives and specialists met on 20 September 1983 with
the Acting NIO/AF as chairman. The attached report has not been coordinated
with the other participants, but is being circulated to them. If they feel
their views have been misinterpreted, or if they have significant additional
concerns, I'll report further to you.
Attachment
NIC #6840-83
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CL BY SIGNER
DECL OADR
DERIVED FROM Multiple
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NIC 6840-83
21 September 1983
WARNING REPORT: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
infiltration, if it should occur from either Chad or Ethiopia, will be
SUDAN
From time to time over the past year, the Warning Report has
highlighted periods of crisis in Sudan. These periods have for a
variety of reasons generally passed without incident. Nevertheless,
the Acting NIO for Africa believes that these episodes have had a
delibitating effect on the Nimeiri regime and that Sudan, because of
its close relations with the U.S., should be watched closely in the
coming months.
Growing shortages of essentials, an overall decline in the
standard of living and recent evidence of discontent within the
military over poor living conditions and benefits have all come
together to present President Nimeiri with new challenges. In an
apparent attempt to gain support for the regime from Sudan's important
Muslim Brotherhood, Nimeiri has reaffirmed the primacy of Islamic law
tnroughout the country. In doing so, he may well have further
antagonized the non-Muslim south, an area already engulfed in turmoil
following the President's decision to divide the area into three
regions.
Community analysts have seen Nimeiri weather political storms in
the past and expect him to do so this time. Over the longer term,
analysts are concerned that Nimeiri's problem will be compounded by
new threats from Ethiopian and Libyan-supported dissidents. Dissident
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Despite dissident activity in southern Chad, Community analysts
generally agree that habre can retain control over that part of the
country and describe the accounts of growing dissidence as overdrawn
and attribute them to the French. The dissidence is poorly organized
and smacks more of localized banditry than any concerted effort to
unseat the Habre regime. The NSC representative expressed some
concern over Habre's determination to recapture northern Chad, which
he would have to do without French assistance. Such a move on the
part of the headstrong Habre, either in the form of a conventional
offensive or a guerrilla campaign--which some analysts throught would
not succeed against the greatly expanded Libyan presence in the
north--would jeopardize chances for a settlement in Chad. Analysts
were in general agreement that the French would have to remain in Chad
for a long time before an accommoaation is arranged that would permit
their departure.
SOUTH AFRICA:
Analysts expect the South African white electorate to pass Prime
Minister Botha's proposed constitutional reforms in the referendum
scheauled for 2 November. The referendum is a critical test for
Botha's blueprint for limited reforms, but he is likely to garner the
votes of English-speaking South Africans who see the alternative--no
change at all--as unacceptable.
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ANGOLA:
Analysts noted the stepped up Soviet arms deliveries to Angola in
recent months that are designed to enhance the Angolan government's
defenses against the growing threat from UNITA. At the same time,
Angolan forces are being stretched increasingly thin as UNITA tries to
move into new areas.
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