WARNING REPORT: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91B00776R000100010017-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 14, 2008
• Sequence Number: 17
• Publication Date: April 21, 1983
• Content Type: MEMO

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THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Council
NIC #2885-83/1
21 April 1983
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
THROUGH . National Intelligence Officer for Warning
Acting National Intelligence Officer for Africa
SUBJECT : Warning Report: Sub-Saharan. Africa
Community representatives and specialists met on 19 April 1983 with the
Acting NIO/AF as chairman. The attached report has not been coordinated with
the other participants, but is being circulated to them. If they feel their
views have been misinterpreted, or if thP~ave significant additional
concerns, I'll report further to you. h_~I
Attachment
NIC #2885-83
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NIC #2885-83
21 April 1983
WARNING REPORT: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
SOUTHERN AFRICA
Southern Africa, plagued by a number of local or regional conflicts,
continues to be of major concern to Community analysts.
South Africa-Namibia
Since early March, South Africa has moved an additional 2-3 battalions
into northern Namibia, raising the total troop strength there to over 10,000
men. Some 500-1000 South African troops remain in the southern Angola buffer
zone. The build-up, characterized as "unprecedented" by DIA analysts, also
includes an increased number of armored vehicles and additional POL and
ammunition storage facilities.
Pretoria's intentions concerning the build-up are not clear. Possible
reasons advanced by analysts were: 1) reaction to a possible Angolan-Cuban
threat to South African forces in the Angolan buffer zone, 2) a feint designed
to divert Angolan-Cuban attention from UNITA's military operations, or (3
preparation for another major incursion into southern Angola, perhaps before
recently-arrived Soviet SA-8 surface-to-air missile systems become
operational.
Analysts also noted two factors which weigh against any immediate
incursions. The northern Namibia staging area has experienced heavier rains
than usual this year. and it will be some time before the land is dry enough
for ground operations. Also, as of the date of the warning meeting no South
African fighter aircraft had been moved into the area. Nevertheless, analysts
conceded that the chances of major South African military operations into
Angola remain high.
Angola-UNITA
Jonas Savimbi's UNITA guerrillas are maintaining their momentum and may
be preparing for further offensives after some regrouping. It was noted that
upcoming deliveries of Soviet troop-carrying helicopters and helicopter
gunships as well as a possible visit by a high-ranking Soviet
officer associated with Soviet operations in Afghanistan suggests high Angolan
concern with UNITA operations and may presage an Angolan-Cuban counter-
offensive.
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Zimbabwe
Growing concern was voiced over disturbing trends that are emerging in
the wake of the government's often heavy-handed military efforts to suppress
dissidence in Matabeleland, the base of self-exiled opposition leader Joshua
Nkomo's popular support. There was general agreement that what until now has
been regarded as banditry in Matabeleland is beginning to coalesce as'
organized resistance. So far, this resistance is centered on defense against
attacks by government forces and is not aimed at overthrowing the Mugabe
government. The dissidents, however, seem to be becoming more offensive-
minded and are initiating some attacks against a variety of open targets.
Some analysts fear that there will be a split within Nkomo's ZAPU between
the political and military wings with a hardcore military group going into
open organized opposition against the government. A split might be
accelerated if the decision in the recently-concluded treason trial against
two senior ZAPU military leaders goes against the defendants. There are signs
that a hard-core military leadership is beginning to appear in the camps in
Botswana.where ZAPU refugees and army deserters are located.
The Botswana connection has added to the Community's concern because it
raises the prospect of ZAPU raids into Matabeleland and Zimbabwean retaliatory
military operations into Botswana against the ZAPU dissidents. The Botswanan
government has publicly promised to defend its borders against Zimbabwean
incursions and thus the prospects for serious friction between the two
countries are real and immediate.
OTHER DEVELOPMENTS
Military operations in the north are at a stalemate, although a move by
Habre's forces to recapture Ounianga Kebir seems likely in the near future,
according to CIA analysts. There are also some indications that ex-president
Goukouni is attempting to install a small force of his dissidents near Lake
Chad. The rainy season normally begins in May and will impede Habre's efforts
to keep his forces in northern Chad supplied since the bulk of the supplies
are carried overland. The rains would not necessarily hamper military
operations, however. Habre continues to project the image of a winner which
he won when he ousted Goukouni but another military setback or failure to
retake Ounianga Kebir could seriously weaken that image and erode his base of
support.
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Ethiopia-Somalia
The latest small-scale clashes resulted from reactions to what each side
observed on the other side of the border. There is no evidence that either
side is undergoing the kind of buildup necessary for serious aggressive
action. Nevertheless, analysts warned that the low-level activity that
constantly takes place in the border area could lead to major hostilities
without advance warning.
Nigeria
Because of rising election "fever" and the high probability of violence
associated with the upcoming election campaign, the Community analysts are
maintaining a close watch. DIA noted its concern that current press stories
alleging CIA destabilization plans for Nigeria could be exploited by
opposition political parties or anti-US elements and result in attacks against
US personnel.
SNIPPETS
In Lesotho, the activities of the South African-supported Lesotho
Liberation Army bear continued watching.
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.FrPFT
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