NICARAGUA BUILDING FORCES TO AVERT U.S. ATTACK, EX-CIA ANALYST REPORTS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91-00587R000200740052-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 29, 2010
• Sequence Number: 52
• Publication Date: February 27, 1985
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/29: CIA-RDP91-00587R000200740052-4
LR: I CLF. LFPL .'.~".
ON FAGF._
BALTIMORE SUN
27 February 1985
U.S. FFOt EUGN RELATiOCWS
1'~ica--r aa bding farces` to avert
U.S. att a:e~, eganalyst -reports
WASHINGTON (AP), -A report
on Central America's military bal-
ance, coauthored by a former CIA
analyst, concludes that Nicaragua's
leftist government has bolstered its
armed forces to defend, against a
feared U.S. attack, not to invade
neighboring countries. . .
"The truth. is that the only Cen-
tral American nation in danger of an
invasion by-regular forces is Nicara-
gua," said the 28-page report re
by
d
-
..
Jester__y
that has been criticaof President ? port's authors contend that : the-"ad craft and 65 combat helicopters.,
-l'-- _
Reagan's Latin 'American policies. ? ministration has exaggerated Nica rAir superiority is a prerequisite
"The only nation likely to doafiat is ragua's military might to justify an to any successful sustained offensive
the United States. increasingly tough policy toward the _t operation," the report said. "Yet it is
"Nicaragua believes. that , the leftist government that took power in this area that Nicaragua is un-
most important deterrent it pos- in 1979. questionably weakest."
sesses against that threat ;is a level " "The Nicaraguan military clearly
of modern armament sufficient to .'.does not fit the frightening, picture _ Meanwhile in Managua, Presi-
inflict severe casualties on. an at-.--.,. -painted of it by the Reagan adminis dent Daniel . Ortega Saavdra "told
tacking U.S. force." ~~ ,.. tration," the report contends U;S. Catholic. Church leaders that he
The Reagan administration has` "'Taken as a wholes the Nicaraguan wanted 'friendly relations. with the
charged repeatedly t-hat-Nicaragua's`: armed forces make an even less im 'United States and that his govern
, .
military buildup, supported by -the"?:' pressive offensive force.' ment wanted to avoid problems with
id the Nicaraguan church.
S
. a
Soviet Union and its allies, is a The report notes growing U.
threat to other Central American' to the armed forces of nearby El Mr: Ortega met with five senior
countries and indirectly to U.S. na- Salvador and Honduras and CIA sup- U.S. clergymen for two hours e late
tional security. - port for rebels fighting to overthrow Monday night.
N? overnment It - also -
a
r
,at as- icaragu
The report, challenging t
g " We discussed every problem
sumption, was written by' former cites large-scale U.S. military exer t that" we could have discussed," he
CIA analyst David MacMichael with cites held in Honduras, near Nicara ??" said after the meeting. "There is he a
Colin Danby and Franz Schneider- gua's border, and U.S. naval maneu- ',;.. -
coincidence [among us]. There is a
man, two researchers for the Council vers off Nicaragua's coast. dto face the problems and to
on Hemispheric Affairs, which re- The report puts the effective size desire esir the problems."
lc sed the study. of Nicaragua s armed forces at solve Mr. MacMichael was an analyst 61,800, compared with President Archbishop John O'Conner of
under contract to the CIA from 1981 neagari's estimate of that nation's New York, the leader of the U.S...
to 19?3 and left after disputing U.S.. "trained forces" at more than delegation, described the exchange
allegations that Nicaragua's Sandin- 100,000. w}th Mr. Ortega as very frank. He
eta c:vermn.ni was shi'nping large Despite administration warnings; said the Nicaraguan president "Lis- 't
socks of tv::a}>ans to leftist gierril- that the Sandinistas are preparing to toner. very carefully to what we had
l:s in !'I Salvador. Mr. M chUchacl, im port sophisticated Soviet "- war- to say. We talked about problems bf '
~: o went pub'ie with his dispute in planes, tam.. report descri':hes Nicara-. " the Nicaraguan church as we have
Jur?e, 19L4, said that evidence of a guc,'s current ar force as "all but come to understand diem."
significant weapons flow "just disap-
peared" after the spring of 1981.
Asked about the new report yes-
terday, a State Department official
.said that even if Nicaragua did not
invade neighboring ? countries, it,s
buildup allowed the leftist regime to
back subversion and to "effectively,
blackmail" weaker countries into
making concessions.
Drawing from U.S. government
figures and published accounts of
STAT
nonexistent," having no bombers or
modern fighters. It said Nicaragua's
most advanced aircraft are probably
Soviet Mi-24 helicopters that the ad-
ministration says were. recently
delivered. .
By comparison, the report said
Honduras has 12 French-built super-
sonic Mystere fighter-bombers, 10 to
12 A-37B counterinsurgency jets,
and four to six F-86 Sabre fighter-:".
bombers. 'The report said El Salva-
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/29: CIA-RDP91-00587R000200740052-4