HUNGER: A GLOBAL SURVEY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90T01298R000300160001-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 25
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 22, 2012
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 1, 1985
• Content Type: REPORT

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' ..,~E~:~?F~,_ Directorate of ~~ V
Intelligenc~?~ 25X1
Hunger: A Global Survey
NpT MICROFtIMED
?? v ~ Onty~
For p~ta ~,ntry.
See?~e~
G/85-1028/
October 1985
345
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Directorate of Secret
Intelligence 25X1
Hunger: A Global Survey
the
Office of Global Issues. Comments and queries are
welcome and may be directed to the Chief, Geography
Division, OGI,
Secret
ci8s-ioz8i
October198s
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Overview
lit/ormation available
as oJ' 10 October l 985
was used in this report.
Hunger: A Global Survey 25X1
large-scale food and technical assistance from the United States.
Worldwide attention is currently focused on the famine in Africa, but
hunger is a global problem, and hundreds of millions of people throughout
the Third World suffer from some degree of malnutrition and associated
diseases. Hunger has important implications for the United States. Food
shortages can increase popular dissatisfaction with governments important
to the United States, reduce economic vigor, and perpetuate the need for
Our regional assessments suggest that:
? In Africa, the prospects for recovery are dim through the end of the
century. Food shortages are the result of adverse climatic conditions that
may not improve in the short term, traditional agricultural practices that
destroy fragile environments, high population growth rates that are not
likely to peak until the mid-1990s, and policy decisions that range from
the unwise use of development capital to the callous exploitation of
hunger to achieve political ends.
? In Latin America, serious malnutrition is likely to persist through the
1990s. Although more than a dozen countries are affected, conditions in
Bolivia and northeastern Brazil are the worst. Recovery from food
shortages caused by El Nino (see appendix A) and other weather
problems in the early 1980s is being hampered by rapid population
growth, inadequacies in infrastructure, foreign debt burdens, and ill-
advised government policies.
? In South Asia, food production has increased rapidly during the past two
decades; however, per capita caloric supply generally remains well below
the Food and Agriculture Organization's minimum requirements. The
region probably will not achieve foodgrain self-sufficiency or
nutritionally adequate diets in the next 10 years as population growth
rates remain high.
sharp price increases could create a major food crisis.
? In East Asia, severe hunger is limited to areas of adverse weather, war, or
political unrest. The margin of success in food production is slim,
however, and there is considerable uncertainty about the future.
Although rice production has increased by 75 percent during the past two
decades-exceeding population growth and improving diets-large seg-
ments of the population still live close to the absolute poverty line, and
iii Secret
G/ 85-1028/
October 1985
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A mother and child wait for food in a Sudanese
refugee camp, December 1984. The child later
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Hunger: A Global Survey
Despite the Green Revolution and several successful
national efforts to raise food production, hunger re-
mains acrucial problem for the Third World as a
whole. Moreover, the situation is likely to get worse
before it gets better. Hunger kills 35,000 people each
day, and some 800 million-17 percent of the world's
population-do not get enough food to sustain active
and healthy lives. Although at present most of the
acute malnutrition (see appendix A) is concentrated in
Africa, the World Bank cites studies indicating that
the gap between domestic food supply and demand
will widen in all major areas of the Third World.
Two decades ago, the situation seemed more hopeful.
Food production was growing by more than 3 percent
a year, well above the rate of population growth.
Unfortunately, the growth of food production has
slowed since the early 1970s-it is now less than 2
percent ayear-and population growth in many
LDCs has jumped. During 1984, for example, per
capita food production declined in 63 percent of the
developing countries for which data are available. As
the margin between food supply and minimum nutri-
tional requirements narrows, any natural or manmade
disaster can send millions over the brink into acute
malnutrition. Meanwhile, the international grain re-
serve and world food security net recommended by
the 1974 World Food Conference have hardly gotten
off the ground.
World hunger is a complicated problem. Its causes
and effects vary from country to country, region to
region, and year to year. This study presents a global
survey of hunger by region, with specific country
examples to illustrate some main issues for US policy-
makers.
Sub-Saharan Africa
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the
United Nations estimates that 150 million Africans-
nearly half the population-suffer some degree of
hunger. While difficult to verify, this figure indicates
the magnitude of the problem in Africa. Food emer-
gencies have hit often during the past 15 years, but
the pervasiveness of the current situation is unprece-
dented. Although the most severe conditions are
found in Mali, Mozambique, Niger, Ethiopia, Sudan,
and Chad, at least 20 of the 41 countries in Sub-
Saharan Africa are experiencing serious food short-
ages. During 1985, the total emergency food aid
required for the region will exceed 6 million metric
tons, and world health experts speculate that the
famine could cause 20 million deaths.
Chronic food problems in Sub-Saharan Africa are the
product of a complex set of interrelated manmade and
natural factors, which include state policy and official
malfeasance, drought, and rapid population growth.
Official actions have been major contributors to the
region's food problems. In some cases, governments
and officials have been ruthless:
? Governments have delayed recovery from natural
disasters by using their control over food aid as a
weapon against insurgencies in Ethiopia, Uganda,
Chad, Angola, and Mozambique, according to Em-
bassy reporting.
? Corrupt officials have diverted food imports and
relief assistance supplies for illegal resale-for ex-
ample, in West and Central Africa
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Figure 1
Famine in Africa
North
4tlantic
Ocean:
To` o
~4
Central African
Republic
A g la
~~ ~
~~~
UgSu'd~
Kampala
Rwanda i9all
l,,.';f~ UJUIiIb~
. hBururitli,
~,~srssai,
Sao Tome end Principe
C
Percentage of Population
Affected by Drought
5 to 25 ?50 and over
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Figure 2
Africa: Precipitation Trend in Sahel, 1950-83
In other cases, governments have taken poorly con-
ceived actions to satisfy competing goals, or have
merely been neglectful:
? In Ethiopia, mismanagement by military personnel
lacking agricultural skills has resulted in generally
lower productivity on state farms than on peasant
holdings.
? In Nigeria, successive governments have not funded
or supported the agricultural sector, despite years of
paying lipservice to a Green Revolution.
? In Senegal and Tanzania, postindependence govern-
ments have tended to promote export crops for
national income rather than food for domestic con-
sumption, according to World Bank reports.
? In Sierra Leone, low-cost rice imports used by the
government to subsidize urban consumers keep the
market price well below domestic production costs
and thereby discourage local production.
? In Ghana, food production for domestic consump-
tion has declined steadily because profits from cash
crops have been channeled into large-scale develop-
ment projects rather than to individual farmers.
Throughout the region, recent attempts to stimulate
production by raising food prices have been offset by
the rising cost of agricultural inputs-mainly petro-
leum-based fertilizers and pesticides-and by short-
ages of farm implements, transportation, and storage
The root of the present crisis and most serious long-
term threat to Africa's fragile food supply are the
adverse climatic trends and associated desertification,
which affect almost half of the continent and may
continue for decades, according to some climatolo-
gists. Declines in annual rainfall-ranging from 15 to
40 percent during the past 15 years-have substan-
tially reduced stream levels; limited ground water
recharge; and, combined with overgrazing and over-
cultivation, have accelerated the pace of topsoil
erosion. This process can render the land unproduc-
tive, even if the rains do return. Pest infestations and
disease, moreover, have devastated crops, natural
vegetation, and livestock in the region.
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Figure 3
Africa: Trends in Food and
Population, 1974-83
lao
Food
80 1974 75 80
Population growth in Africa, the highest worldwide, is
rapidly outstripping food supply. Since the mid-1960s,
the populations of 22 countries have grown between 2
and 3 percent a year (4 percent in Kenya), while
annual increases in food production have slipped
below the 2-percent level common before 1970. As a
result, per capita food production in some countries is
20 percent less than it was during the 1960s. Demog-
raphers project that total population growth rates will
continue to rise before peaking above 3 percent in the
1990s. Rapidly expanding urban populations, which
according to the United Nations could double by
2000, will compound the problem because they pro-
duce little food and demand more food per capita than
do rural populations.
During the past 20 years, these factors-policy, cli-
mate, and population-have contributed to a growing
dependence on food imports, and African govern-
ments have borrowed heavily to finance food pur-
chases-$5 billion in 1982 compared with $274 mil-
lion in 1963. Servicing the massive debt created by
this borrowing consumes a large share of the export
earnings of many countries, often forcing them to rely
increasingly on international food assistance. This
year's crop estimates again indicate harvests well
below normal, and Africa's principal food aid do-
nors-North America, Western Europe, Australia,
and Japan-can expect food aid requests to continue.
The US contribution.to African famine relief and
recovery is expected to reach $550 million during
1985. In contrast, Soviet Bloc contributions to Afri-
can relief during the period 1983-85 amounted to only
$9.6 million, most of which went to client states such
as Mozambique and Ethiopia.
Ethiopia, Sudan, and Chad: The Current Crisis. The
drought in Ethiopia, Sudan, and Chad has intensified
sharply during the past four years and now threatens
an estimated 17 million people. The most seriously
affected areas are in northern Ethiopia and in western
and northeastern Sudan, where some 1.5 million
displaced Sudanese have been joined by up to
1 million Ethiopian refugees searching for food and
water. Measles, fever, and pneumonia cases are on the
rise, and a serious cholera epidemic that began last
January in Ethiopia has spread to Somalia and Dji-
bouti. Complicating the natural disaster, Addis Aba-
ba is using food assistance and massive relocation as a
weapon against the Eritrean insurgents. In Chad, civil
war, Libyan intervention, and the relentless press of
drought may be creating the "next Ethiopia." Accord-
ing to the World Food Program, 1985 food deficits in
the three-country region range from 2.4 million to 2.9
million tons-25 to 30 percent of estimated world
food aid contributions for fiscal year 1985. Since none
of the affected governments can afford to offset the
deficit with commercial imports, all must seek conces-
sionary food aid. For Sudan, the US pledge of 1.2
million tons fills less than two-thirds of the need.
Inadequate transportation networks, underdeveloped
logistic systems, security concerns, and international
tensions are placing major constraints on the timely
and efficient movement of food aid to famine victims
in all three countries. For example, landlocked Chad
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Figure 4
Principal Sources of Food in
Ethiopia, 1980/81-1984/85
140 1980/81 81/82 82/83 83/84 84/85a
receives all of its imports, including food aid, through
the ports of neighboring Cameroon and Nigeria.
shipping time can be as
little as six days through Nigeria, but poor relations
between Lagos and N'Djamena cause frequent de-
lays. Shipment through Cameroon takes 25 days or
more. Sudan, on the other hand, has relatively good
port facilities, but movement inland is slowed by poor
roads and a decrepit railroad.
In Ethiopia and Chad, the governments have misused
the drought and famine as weapons in their wars
against insurgents. For example, the US Embassy
reports that the Mengistu regime has given Soviet
arms shipments priority over deliveries of food aid,
resulting in a 200,000-ton backlog at the port of Aseb.
Recently, bilateral relations between Ethiopia and
donors, especially the United States, were damaged
when Addis Ababa abruptly closed and burned
the Ibnat feeding camp-the largest in Ethiopia-in
an attempt to speed up the resettlement of 1.5 million
northerners, who preferred to remain at the feeding
center rather than relocate to southern provinces.
Although international outrage eventually forced the
government to reopen the center, it has not slowed the
resettlement program, which is designed to reduce
popular support for the insurgency. As another exam-
ple, the US refugee coordinator in Addis Ababa has
learned that the current Ethiopian military offensive
has halted the Eritrean Relief Association's cross-
border feeding operations from Sudan and that the
Army overran and destroyed arebel-sponsored, 4,000-
hectare agricultural project in early September.
In Chad, WFP representatives confirm refugee re-
ports to a US Embassy factfinding mission that
government reprisals against farmers suspected of
supporting the rebels have included the destruction of
crops and the confiscation of food supplies and live-
stock. Moreover, government officials have used food
aid to compensate for a recent 50-percent salary
reduction and to secure the loyalty of the military.
total catastrophe.
We do not believe that the food situation in these
three countries will improve in the near term. Severe
drought, soil erosion, desertification, civil strife, politi-
cal maneuvering, and a shortage of agricultural inputs
will continue to prevent agricultural recovery. In
addition, the affected countries do not appear to have
either the financial ability or the political will to boost
food production by expanding agricultural invest-
ments, improving technology, increasing farm credits,
and raising prices. All three countries will therefore
continue to depend on assistance from abroad to avert
North Africa
Food shortages in most North African countries are
not nearly as severe as elsewhere on the continent, but
massive food imports are still required. Egypt, for
example, produces only about 2 million tons of the 8
million tons of wheat that it consumes annually,
according to the US agricultural attache. Although
North African production is on the rise, reliance on
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Famine in Africa
Photo 1. Zui Hamussit refugee camp in Gonde~r
Province, Ethiopia, showing eJjects of drought
Photo 5. Man carrying malnourished child to an
Ethiopian refugee camp in hope ofhndingfood.
Photo 9. Three-year-old famine victim of haU
normal weight being examined by a Dutch doc-
Photo 13. Malnourished children receivingjood
aid that x?ill probably save their lives (Ethiopia.
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Famine in Africa
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imports financed by expanded commodity exports-
principally oil, gas, phosphates, and cotton-will con-
tinue, according to a recent US Government report.
Only Tunisia, which now produces approximately 60
percent of what it consumes, has much chance of
producing enough food for its own needs.
The most serious hunger problem in North Africa is
found in Mauritania, where rainfall totals have fallen
to as low as 20 percent of normal during the past three
years, and the country now produces only 6 percent of
its food needs. The US Embassy reports that livestock
herds have been reduced by more than half, and the
amount of arable land has shrunk from 20 percent of
the total area to only 2 percent since the 1960s. At the
beginning of the 1980s, Mauritania's per capita calo-
ric supply was less than three-fourths of the average
for the. rest of the region. Foreign aid pledges of grain
for 1985 cover only 83 percent of the calculated need,
and actual deliveries through May met barely one-
fourth of the requirement. One Mauritanian official
predicted early this year that two-thirds of the na-
tion's 1.7 million people would "experience severe
famine" by the end of 1985.
A traditional food-exporting region, Latin America
became a net cereals importer in the late 1970s, and,
according to the FAO, some 15 percent of the 400
million inhabitants are malnourished. Food supplies in
such countries as Bolivia, Dominican Republic, Haiti,
Jamaica, and Peru are limited by financial constraints
brought on by declining export revenues and large
debt payments, according to USDA reports;
inadequate food storage,
refrigeration, transportation, and marketing facilities
add to food supply problems throughout the region.
Elsewhere, food supply problems are linked to politi-
cal and social turmoil. A USDA assessment indicates
that political instability contributed to agricultural
production declines in E1 Salvador during the early
1980s, and serious malnutrition was reported among
Miskito Indians displaced by the Sandinista regime in
Nicaragua. We believe that continued civil unrest in
Central America will draw resources away from
agriculture and disrupt already fragile food distribu-
tion networks.
Figure 5
Latin America: Trends in Food and
Population, 1974-83
90
I I
80 1974 75 80
FAO projections of a 3-percent annual increase in
food production through 2000 are questionable, in our
view, given shortages of land, technology, and invest-
ment capital in most Latin American countries. Even
if the projections are accurate, the per capita caloric
supply will increase only marginally because of a
projected 2.6-percent population growth rate. Accord-
ing to another UN study, cities in many Latin
American countries will grow even faster-more than
4 percent annually in Haiti, El Salvador, Guatemala,
Honduras, Nicaragua, Ecuador, and Paraguay. We
believe that this urban growth will place even greater
demands on the agricultural sector and on food
imports, raising the possibility of urban instability if
food supplies fall short. Although per capita food
production in Latin America did increase 2 percent in
1984, according to the USDA, this jump largely
represents aone-time recovery from the sharp de-
clines caused by adverse weather in 1982 and 1983.
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Figure 6
Principal Sources of Food in Bolivia,
1980/81-1984/85
0 1980/81 81/82 82/83 83/84 84/85?
All human groups use food taboos to maintain group
distinctiveness and help provide members with a
sense of identity. Food taboos can also play critical
roles in food crises. During and alter World War II,
for example, many Indians refused to accept Western
wheat. Riots broke out, and many died rather than
eat the unacceptable food. Assistance organizations
ojten~nd it difficult to persuade mothers to give their
malnourished children cow's milk in societies that
perceive it as unclean. In the Dominican Republic,
rants, young girls, pregnant, postpartum, and lac-
tating women-who are often the most needy in food-
d~cit countries-are particularly ejected by beliefs
that certain foods can be harmful. For example,
many pregnant women will not eat hardened rice
because they believe it prevents the placenta from
detaching.
Malnutrition is scattered throughout Latin America.
The most recent FAO data indicate a shortfall in per
capita caloric supply ranging from 3 percent in Nica-
ragua to 14 percent in Haiti. Fifteen countries-
including Bolivia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El
Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua,
and Peru-fail to meet FAO minimum requirements,
which range from 2,190 calories per day in Guatema-
la to 2,390 in Bolivia. These average data, however,
mask considerable variation within individual coun-
tries. For example, according to Mexico's National
Nutrition Institute, despite a national per capita
supply of 2,900 calories a day, at least 40 percent of
the population is malnourished, 5 percent of the
children born each year die from diseases caused by
hunger, and half of those that survive suffer physical
and mental defects from poor diets.
severe 1982-83 EI Nino. According to the FAO, the
caloric supply in Bolivia was 13 percent below mini-
mum requirements, even before El Nino's floods and
droughts reduced agricultural production by 30 per-
cent. In northeastern Brazil-the largest area of
poverty in the Western Hemisphere-press reports
claim the severe drought of 1979-84 affected the
livelihoods of 10 million people and caused up to
250,000 hunger-related deaths. Some 2 million
flagelados (scourged ones) fled to cities in search of
food. Assistance programs have had little effect, in
part because Brasilia has refused most international
aid in an attempt to motivate its own people toward
relief efforts. Although the drought broke in late
1984, extensive flooding in early 1985 increased the
threat of disease, left more than 500,000 people
homeless, and continues to impede recovery because
of damage to the infrastructure. In our view, frequent
prolonged droughts-coupled with Brazil's financial
problems, inefficient transportation system, and un-
equal landholding practices-make elimination of
chronic hunger in this region unlikely any time soon.
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South America
USDA data indicate that hunger is worst in South
America between the equator and 20 degrees south
latitude, the region most affected by weather prob-
lems in the early 1980s, including the unusually
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Food that is donated or imported at concessionary
prices plays an important role in many Latin Ameri-
can countries, although in most cases it is not enough
to raise per capita caloric supplies to FAO minimum
requirements. USDA estimates that 1.8 million tons
of food aid will be needed to meet nutritional require-
ments across the region in crop year 1985/86. Peru
will require nearly half of this aid, some 700,000 tons
of grain valued at about $130 million. The Dominican
Republic will need 220,000 tons of milk, costing more
than $300 million, and Haiti, Guatemala, and Bolivia
will each require more than 100,000 tons of grain.
The USDA predicts that most of these countries could
not absorb all the necessary food aid-even if it were
made available-because of inadequate port, trans-
portation, or storage facilities.
During the past two decades, food production in
South Asia has increased rapidly-keeping pace with
a population growth rate near 2.5 percent-and aver-
age grain imports have fallen by more than one-fourth
to about 3 percent of consumption. Nevertheless, per
capita caloric supply, except in Pakistan and Sri
Lanka, remains below FAO minimum requirements,
and the region probably will not achieve grain self-
sufficiency or adequate diets in the next 10 years.
India
Despite the impact of localized drought on agricul-
ture, the increased use of better seed and more
fertilizer has doubled wheat production in India since
1970. The production of rice, India's main foodgrain,
also increased during this period but at a much slower
rate, partly because the precise irrigation required by
high-yielding varieties is difficult to, achieve in a
monsoon climate. As a result, India has large stocks of
foodgrains, which can be transported to food-deficit
areas when the need arises. Malnutrition persists in
India, however, because overall economic growth is
slow, and, according to US Government economists,
roughly one-third of the population lack the purchas-
ing power to maintain an adequate diet.
Figure 7
South Asia: Trends in Food and
Population, 1974-83
90
80 1974 75
80
Bangladesh
Bangladesh has not yet fully met its food production
targets, but the government policy of building grain
stocks paid off handsomely during and after the
disastrous 1984 floods. Despite the destruction of
more than 1 million tons of crops, a widely predicted
famine was averted because of the ready availability
of grain stockpiled throughout the country. Because
little concessionary food aid was available, however,
the depleted stocks had to be replenished at commer-
cial prices, putting the economy under greater strain
than normal. The dramatic storm of May 1985, which
killed thousands on islands off the Bangladesh coast,
affected only a tiny portion of the country and caused
relatively little damage to agriculture. Despite the
recent success of Bangladesh's food policy, rapid
population growth continues to hamper government
efforts to achieve a stable food supply and improve
nutrition.
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Figure 8
Principal Sources of Food in
Bangladesh, 1980/81-1984/85
175
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150
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125
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100
- - -
-
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----
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75
-
-
25
0 1980/81 81/82 82/83 83/84 84/85a
military pressure. Although
continue to abandon fields in response to Soviet
^ Aid
^ Stocks
^ Imports
^ Production
Afghanistan
In Afghanistan, the food supply situation.is precarious
in many local areas because of drought and the
disruption of distribution systems by military opera-
tions. These shortages are scattered throughout the
country, with most occurring in the east and north-
east. Farmers along the Pakistani and Iranian borders
the Soviets are not following a deliberate
are likely to reduce production.
scorched-earth policy, crops along some roads and in
areas of heavy fighting have been seriously damaged.
Because of relatively good harvests elsewhere, howev-
er, the overall food supply will not be in serious
imbalance. Another factor alleviating pressure on the
food supply system is the flight of some 3 million
Afghan refugees during the past five years, which has
significantly reduced food demands. Over the long
term, poor-quality seed, unavailable or overly expen-
sive fertilizer, and the shortage of agricultural man-
power-particularly to maintain irrigation systems-
Figure 9
East Asia: Trends in Food and
Population, 1974-83
80 1974 75
80
In East Asia, serious hunger is limited to areas of
adverse weather, war, or political unrest. Rice produc-
tion has increased by 75 percent since 1965, and the
Asian share of world rice imports has declined from
66 percent to 30 percent. Currently, rice prices are at
a 10-year low, and stocks are at record highs. The
world rice market is very thin, however, and prices are 25X1
extremely vulnerable to changes in supply or demand.25X1
A year of bad weather-almost half of the rice-
growing areas are dependent on monsoon rains-
could deplete stocks and drive up prices. Because
large segments of the Asian population live close to
the margin of absolute poverty, small decreases in
income or rises in food prices could reduce nutritional
levels for millions. Despite East Asia's generally good
food production record, we believe the margin of
success is slim, and there is still considerable uncer-
tainty about the future.
Food per capita
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Famine in Bangladesh
Photo 1. Crowd scene at Chittagong, Bangladesh,
one of the most densely populated areas in the
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China
Led by a series of agricultural policy changes and a
period of favorable weather, food production in China
has increased substantially in recent years. Regional
crop specialization, increased agricultural inputs, and
new incentives for farmers have meant bumper grain
crops since 1.979,
Coupled with record grain imports-we esti-
mate 14.2 million net tons in 1982-China's improv-
ing agricultural performance has pushed per capita
grain availability to a new high, a major policy goal of
the Chinese Government since the late 1970s. ~
In spite of these gains, the threat of food shortages has
not disappeared in China. FAO data show that per
capita caloric supply, only 3 percent above the recom-
mended minimum, did not improve between 1977 and
1981, and we believe large absolute population in-
creases and a lack of additional cultivable land will
make further growth in per capita food production
increasingly costly. Moreover, Beijing's ability to
supplement domestic production with additional food
purchases is limited by its food import capacity, which
we estimate at only 16 million tons a year. Manage-
ment errors,- unfavorable weather conditions, in-
creased population growth, or a retreat from present
agricultural policies could reverse the gains made in
recent years and cause a serious food shortage. ~
Southeast Asia
In Southeast Asia, the food situation is also improv-
ing. As a result of expanded cultivation, improved
irrigation, and greater use of chemical fertilizers, per
capita food production rose by an average 16 percent
during the 1970s, according to the World Bank, and
caloric supplies have increased in all the non-Commu-
nist countries-most hover just above the FAO-
recommended minimum. Although they appear en-
couraging, these statistical data often mask gross
inequities in income distribution, which affect all
Southeast Asian countries and prevent households
throughout the region from receiving an adequate
diet.
The Philippines. In the Philippines, where the pro-
duction of major cereals is up 12 percent since crop
year 1980/81, food imports reached an alltime high in
Secret
Figure 10
Principal Sources of Food in the
Philippines, ?.980/81-1984/85
200 1980/81 81/82
1984/85, and the daily per capita caloric supply is
above the FAO-recommended minimum; hunger,
nonetheless, is still a problem. Inequitable income
distribution prevents many people from receiving an
adequate diet in spite of production gains. The bottom
40 percent of the population earns only 10 percent of
the total income, 39 percent of all families live below
the World Bank's poverty line, and the USDA expects
per capita cereal consumption to fall as the current
financial crisis weakens the consumers' ability to buy
food. Government efforts since the early 1970s to
reduce the disparities in income distribution and
regional economic development have had minimal
results. Unless the government pursues aggressive
policies to reduce inequities in regional development
and to raise incomes among the poor, we believe more
Filipinos will become increasingly vulnerable to the
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threat of malnutrition. Inflation or poor harvests
could further undermine the ability of the poor to
purchase sufficient food.
nam, and Cambodia-conditions are worse.
the caloric supply
in all three countries is below the FAO-recommended
minimums. Although evidence indicates that per capi-
ta food production is rising in Laos and Vietnam,
during 1984 Vietnamese food production fell. In both
countries, the food supply remains vulnerable, and
poor weather, slow economic growth, or ill-advised
policy decisions could reduce nutritional levels fur-
ther.
Cambodia, mired in conflict and still recovering from
the devastation of the Pol Pot years, may be the most
hunger-vulnerable country in East Asia. Despite lim-
ited information on the food situation and estimates of
rice production that vary by as much as 30 percent,
we believe the level of nutrition in Cambodia is poor
at best. World Bank figures for 1982 show that per
capita food production is only slightly more than one-
half what it was in 1970, and
the 1984/85 rice harvest will be the smallest since
1979/80-the year hundreds of thousands of Cambo-
dians fled to the Thai border to escape famine.
Although we do not expect similar mass migrations
this year, a recent UN in-country assessment indi-
cates that the food situation in Cambodia is not
improving and that major health problems are the
result of food shortages. Conditions in Cambodia will
probably not improve until the political-military situa-
tion is resolved and agricultural development assumes
precedence. In the meantime, Cambodian agriculture
will remain heavily dependent on favorable weather to
sustain even marginal levels of nutrition.
The prospects for satisfying future food needs in the
Third World, while good in some parts of Asia, are
quite poor in much of Africa and parts of South
America. In the absence of effective government
agricultural policies, political stability, good weather,
favorable world markets, and controlled population
UN border relief operations deliver rice to Khmer
refugees along the Thai-Cambodian border,
growth, we believe that food-deficit countries
throughout the Third World will continue to struggle
with the problems of food security well into the next
century:
? Government policies that favor industry over agri-
culture or place controls on farm prices will limit
food production or reduce purchasing power in such
countries as Egypt, Mozambique, the Philippines,
and Ghana.
? Household poverty, in countries where income dis-
tribution is highly skewed, will continue to restrict
most Third World residents' access to available
national food supplies.
? Insurgencies and government counterinsurgent ac-
tivities will limit food production and disrupt fragile
distribution networks in Ethiopia, Mozambique,
Lebanon, Afghanistan, the Philippines, Cambodia,
El Salvador, and elsewhere.
? Recurring droughts will continue to hamper agricul-
tural recovery in much of Sub-Saharan Africa if the
present climatic trend continues. Monsoon Asia will
also experience occasional harvest failures because
of unreliable summer rains, and El Nino will pose a
periodic threat to food production throughout the
world.
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? Overgrazing, overcropping, and deforestation will
remain a threat to productive farmland in grid
regions. Under current conditions, Sub-Saharan Af-
rica, especially the Sahelian countries, will suffer
the greatest damage.
? Massive foreign debts, low market prices for export
commodities, and unfavorable exchange rates will
limit the food-importing capabilities of such coun-
tries as Somalia, Sudan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Cam-
bodia, Dominican Republic, and Honduras.
? Inadequate port and storage facilities, poor or non-
existent road and rail networks, or management
failures will place major constraints on food distri-
bution and the delivery of agricultural support
services in many countries, including Kenya, Burun-
di, Sudan, Chad, Somalia, Ethiopia, and Brazil.
? Rapid population growth and the demands of ex-
panding urban areas will outpace increased food
production in much of Africa, South Asia, and
Latin America. The most severe problems will occur
in Kenya, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe.
While short-term government policies cannot effec-
tively address some of these challenges (climate, for-
eign debt, population growth, or insurgency), a num-
ber are amenable to policy intervention by affected
governments and concerned donor countries. Small-
scale projects to improve agricultural practices could
slow the process of desertification, reclaim eroded
hillsides, and restore valuable watersheds lost to de-
forestation. Acommitment to free trade and market-
determined prices would revive the incentive of small
farmers and increase food production. Programs to
improve storage and transportation infrastructure
would open markets, reduce the cost of agricultural
inputs, and help stabilize the price of food for farmer
and consumer alike.
Hunger in the Third World will directly affect a
number of US interests:
? Food shortages contribute to political disaffection
throughout the world and fuel insurgencies in
Figure 11
Principal Food Aid Donors,
July 1981-June 1982
USSR/Eastern Europe Other
1.8 \ 7.8
Australia
4.9
Japan
s.l
Canada
6.0
Europe
16.0
countries strategically important to the United
States. For example, we believe that Sudan's par-
ticipation in the Rapid Deployment Force program
could be jeopardized if hunger problems worsen
and pose a threat to the Transitional Military
Council. In the Philippines, the government's weak
response to poverty and malnutrition will strength-
en the Communist insurgency.
? Food shortages inevitably limit the productive ca-
pacity of affected nations and reduce their potential
as trading partners for US businesses.
? Hunger perpetuates the need for humanitarian as-
sistance. Unless food-deficit countries increase agri-
cultural production, the demand for US food aid
and technical assistance will remain heavy.
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Appendix A
Glossary
risk of mortality during pregnancy.
Chronic undernutrition. The consumption of an inadequate amount of calories
over a long period. Chronic undernutrition can lead to severe weight loss, high
mortality rates among infants of affected mothers, blindness, endemic cretinism,
and anemia, which increases susceptibility to life-threatening infections and the
conditions of adequate nutrition.
Acute malnutrition. The dramatic reduction of all or specific nutrients. Acute
malnutrition can be life threatening in the short term and opens the door to
endemic diseases that would not be significant public health threats under
for distributional inequities.
FAO-recommended minimum caloric supply. The number of calories necessary to
sustain a person at normal levels of activity and health, given the age and sex dis-
tributions of the population, average body weights, and environmental tempera-
tures. The level of nutrition of a population is estimated by dividing the available
per capita caloric supply, derived from food balance sheets, by the FAO-
established minimum per capita requirement. When calories available exceed the
requirement, the population is assumed to be adequately nourished. The FAO
suggests that 110 percent of the minimum requirement is necessary to compensate
can disrupt weather patterns around the world.
El Nino. An abnormal heating of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, so named-The
Child-because its warm current is often felt in western South America at
Christmas time. Occurring every two to 10 years, its cause is unknown but may be
linked to an eastward dislocation of the usual low-pressure cell over Indonesia and
a weakening of the high-pressure cell east of Tahiti. Severe or prolonged El N~nos
human occupancy.
Deserttf cation. The spread or intensification of desert conditions caused by
increasing aridity and destructive agricultural practices. It is characterized by the
reduction of biomass, accelerated soil deterioration, and increased hazards for
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