BIG PICTURES IN SMALL FRAMES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90T00435R000100080011-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 3, 2013
• Sequence Number: 11
• Publication Date: August 19, 1988
• Content Type: MEMO

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ROUTING AND RECORD SHEET
SUBJECT: (Optional)
Big Pictures in Small Frames
FROM:
Fritz W. Ermarth\A'A tCSC(.1
EXTENSION
NO. ,
NIC #02938-28
DATE
19 August 1988
Chairman, NIC
COMMENTS (Number each comment to show from whom
to whom. Draw a line across column after each comment.)
TO: (Officer designation, room number, and
building)
DATE
OFFICER'S
RECEIVED
FORWARDED
INITIALS
1.
ER
2.
3.
DDCI
C2,CIICI
TVa
4.
5.
C--,
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
FORM 610 USE PREVIOUS
1-79 EDITIONS
SLUKLI
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? -
SECRET
The Director of Central Intelligence
WashingtolOC.20505
National Intelligence Council
MEMORANDUM FOR: Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
FROM: Fritz W. Ermarth
Chairman
SUBJECT: Big Pictures in Small Frames
NIC #02938-88
19 August 1988
Following our conversation about your impending briefing of Governor
Dukakis, I asked the NIOs each to give me a "one liner" from his area, what
he would want to say if he had the chance to speak but one sentence to the
candidate.
The attached is my own effort to synthesize what the NIOs gave me,
reflecting some implicit differences (e.g., on how much Gorbachev is likely
to seek constraints on military competition) and forcing my own opinion in
some cases (e.g., narcotraffic interdiction will not work). Although these
words are solely my responsibility, I think they reflect the state of NIC
thinking on some big issues.
I hope these points prove useful.
Attachment:
As stated
Fritz W. Ermarth
SECRET
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19 August 1988
Perspectives from the National Intelligence Council
USSR
Under Gorbachev the USSR is trying to appear less threatening to the West
and is expected by many (not all) in the Intelligence Community to seek
substantial relaxation of arms competition and regional conflicts, to
promote both foreign policy goals and domestic economic revival. For now at
least, the modernization of strategic and general purpose military forces
continues as in the past. Resource concentration and foreign infusions
should keep Soviet military technology competitive in the years ahead. All
agree that Gorbachev will present a much more formidable political challenge
to the West, and the Soviet espionage threat shows no sign of subsiding.
EUROPE
Some redefinition of the security relationship between the US and Europe is
going to come about in the next decade; that redefinition must either be led
constructively by the United States or it will "happen" on its own, perhaps
not so constructively. One can say approximately the same thing about the
Soviet-East European relationship, where destructive prospects for the
region, for Moscow, and for East-West relations are even richer.
EAST ASIA
Sino-Soviet rapprochment, the growth (slowly) of Japanese assertiveness, and
the retrenchment of US power purported to be sensed by the countries of the
region are creating a new political climate which may make East Asia a less
predictable and congenial area for the US in the 1990s than it has been in
the 1980s.
NEAR EAST AND SOUTH ASIA
Soviet withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, the death of Zia, the prospect
of an end to the Iran-Iraq war, developments surrounding the Palestinian
uprising, more enterprising Soviet diplomacy, and the proliferation of
sophisticated weaponry have made the whole region one of more volatile
challenge to the US than even a few months ago. Some developments have been
sought by the US, but the net trends are toward instabilities and conflicts
hostile to US interests and more demanding of political and military
engagement than we have the stomach for.
SECRE
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THIRD WORLD
Proliferation of sophisticated weapons, including nuclear potential, is a
"megatrend".
The debt crisis threatens otherwise promising movement of Thi rd World
countries toward open political and economic life, particularly in Latin
Amen i ca.
Notably in Africa, AIDS threatens to wipe out entire elite and urban
populations on which development progress depends.
Interdiction and eradication efforts are not going to materially stem the
ti de of narcotics into the US from Thi rd World countries, especially in
Latin America. Rather, until the US curbs its domestic demand, trafficking
will threaten the stability and civility of a number of supplying countries,
and US interdiction/eradication policies will seriously trouble our
relations with them.
SECRET
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"
NOTE FOR:
FROM:
SUBJECT:
19 August 1988
Chairman, NIC
Vice Chairman, NIC
Murat Natirboff
NIO/FDIA
NIO/FDIA Contribution to Dukakis Briefing
Per your request, following is judgment statement which we feel is
vital for Dukakis to hear:
Despite refreshing winds of change in Gorbachev's new
"openness" policies, the prospects are for continued aggressive
Soviet espionage efforts against the United States; new arms
control developments such as the INF--and perhaps a START--treaty
will not diminish this activity, merely require adjustment by US
counterintelligence to changes in its modalities.
SECRET
Murat Natirboff
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(2/f
The international narcotics issue will escalate in importance in the
near term and will further complicate and aggravate US bilateral
relationships in Latin America untll its level of priority within foreign
\
policy planning is firmly establish6d; the issue will also deliver
unprecedented pressures upon US intelligence resources to help guide more
effective and efficient counternarcotlics programs.
William R. Kotapish
NIO/Counternarcotics
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LATIN AMERICA
Without relief from the staggering economic problems that are led by the
debt burden, the prospect is for the election of more leftist leaders, a
weakeni ng of incumbent civil i an governments and greater opportuni ty for
military dominance, and scarce resources to combat narcotraffi cki ng and
Marxist i nsurgenci es--the sum of which promise more difficult and probably
more confrontational relations with the United States.
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L N.? 1 %??? t% %of I
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Council 19 August 1988
TO:? Fritz Ermarth
FROM: Andre LeGallo
SUBJECT: Your Request for a Statement on Terrorism
International terrorism, while not threatening to the
survival of the United States, is a serious Inter-
national issue.with potentially high political im-
pact; the most serious threat to the United States
is from State sponsored terrorism as manifested
by Iran & involvement in the hostage situation which
Tehran is trying to exploit during this U.S. elec-
tion period.
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r t(
19 August 1988
TO: C/NIC
FROM: A/NIO/EUR
Herewith a one-sentence judgment on Europe for possible DCl/DDCI use in
next week's briefing.
There is a growing conviction on both sides of the Atlantic that
underlying di fferences in securi ty on entati on will demand a redefi ni ti on of
the transatlantic partnership and a new concepti on of European security into
the next century -- which only we can provide.
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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE OFFICER
FOR ECONOMICS
National Intelligence Council
19 August 1988
The six-year-old "crisis" in foreign debt has
brought new investment in many Latin American
countries to a near halt -- a trend which must
be reversed in order to achieve economic and
political stability in the years ahead.
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NIO/Africa
19 August 1988
A key issue for the next six months and beyond is the extent to which the
Soviets will back up their endorsement of "political solutions to regional
conflicts" with effective pressure on their African clients, particularly
Ethiopia and Angola, to make meaningful concessions.
? Defining the global dimensions of AIDS poses a major intelligence
challenge, but the evidence available so far suggests the potential for
political and economic catastrophy in some Third World countries, particularly
in Africa, from high rates of infection among elites and urban populations.
SECRET
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The proliferation to many third world nations of ballistic missile systems
and the growing proliferation of both chemical and biological weapons, in
addition to the proliferation of nuclear weapons, represents a real and
growing future threat to US forces and policies--a threat which will require
more careful attention to the verifiability of arms control agreements than is
currently being achieved in international fora.
SECRET
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JEA,RLI
NIO/NESA
Developments in the Middle East andSouth Asia over the past nine months
have significantly altered the challenges facing the United States in the
year ahead: the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan coupled with the death
of Pakistan's President Zia have ushered in new uncertainties over the
character and strength of leadership in Kabul and Islamabad; Iran and Iraq
remain heavily armed, antagonistic forces to be reckoned with by other
oil?rich states in the Persian Gulf; and, young Palestinian nationalists in
the occupied territories have as a consequence of their uprising defied two
decades of Israeli military rule, PLO inertia, Jordan's guardianship, and US
diplomatic peace strategies. Major US security interests are at stake in
all three of these arenas and must be resecured in the face of energized,
more skillful Soviet policy, a greater independent?mindedness among our
regional friends and foes, and a steady escalation in sophisticated weaponry.
SECRET
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EAST ASIA
Rapidly improving relations between China and the Soviet Union will allow the
Chinese and Soviets to enhance their positions in Asia; this, along with
growing Japanese assertiveness, could prompt some countries that have strong
ties to the United States to reassess their relationships with Washington, to
the likely detriment of US interests in the region.
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USSR
The ongoing reassessment of Soviet policies under Gorbachev
is likely to present the US with a a more sophisticated
Soviet political challenge around the globe in the years
'ahead; but the USSR will also be open to more substantial_
steps to constrain strategic and conventional arms and to
dampen regional conflicts.
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19 August 1988
MEMORANDUM FOR: Chairman NIC
FROM: Charles E. Allen
National Intelligence Officer for Warning
SUBJECT: Critical Issue for the Democratic Presidential Candidate
Given the fact that over the past 14 years the Soviets have produced
4 times as many ICBMs, 2 times as many SLBMs, 3 times as many helicopters,
12 times as many artillery pieces, 5 times as many APCs, 3 times as many
tanks, 3 times as many attack submarines, about the same number of surface
ships, as well as continuing to expend from 15 to 17 percent of Soviet gross
national product on the military, we offer the following statement for the DCI
to convey to candidate Dukakis:
If Gorbachev is successful and there is no significant change in
traditional Soviet political and military goals, the US will face a more
formidable adversary worldwide in the 1990's.
Charles E. Allen
SECRET
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19 August 88
from SP:
Despite a growing Western public perception
that the Soviets have changed their military
doctrine to be less threatening, we see no
evidence to indicate that they are making any
changes in their forces or operations; in fact,
their program to modernize strategic offensive
forces and to develop advanced strategic defen-
sive weapons continues apace.
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from NIO/S&T:
We believe that future Soviet military systems will continue
to compete effectively in overall capability with US systems
during the next 15 years because of effective R & D management
practices, prompt incorporation of technology into military
system designs, and extensive use of foreign technology.
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