AFGHANISTAN SITUATION REPORT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90T00114R000600820001-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 20
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 12, 2012
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: February 10, 1987
• Content Type: REPORT

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/05: CIA-RDP90T00114R00060082066-'1-2
Directorate of Top Secret
Intelligence
DATE ,=2
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Afghanistan Situation Report (u)
(4,
10 February 1987
p Seciet
NESA M 87-200I6JX
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AFGHANISTAN SITUATION REPORT
CONTENTS
CEASE-FIRE IN NAME ONLY
2
MASOOD MAINTAINS HIGH LEVELS OF COMBAT
3
nntai_r_l
Insurgent commander Masood's forces increase ?
activity last year in northern Afghanistan.
LIMITED RESISTANCE SUCCESS AT OIC SUMMIT
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The Afghan resistance delegation performed credibly at
the OIC summit in Kuwait last month, but its
international impact was limited by the Kuwaiti's
decision to limit press coverage of its activities.
IMPLICATIONS OF A DRY WINTER
5
The limited snowfall this winter in Afghanistan has
caused a shortage of water for hydroelectric plants and
may also affect crop yields later in the year.
INDIAN MEDICAL SUPPORT FOR THE AFGHAN ARMY
recently reported that Afghan Army personnel are
receiving medical treatment in India and that some
Indian medical personnel are serving in Afghanistan.
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IN BRIEF
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PERSPECTIVE
KEEPING UP ECONOMIC APPEARANCES MORE DIFFICULT 10
IN 1986
We believe that the Afghan regime was less successful
in 1986 than in 1985 in efforts to maintain an illusion
of economic normalcy. With only dim prospects for real
improvements in the economy, regime dependency on the
USSR probably will deepen.
This document was prepared by the Office of Near
Eastern and South Asian Analysis and the Office of
Soviet Analysis.
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CEASE-FIRE IN NAME ONLY
Despite the Afghan regime's unilaterally declared
cease-fire, Soviet and Afghan forces conducted
offensives last week against insurgent logistics depots
and infiltration routes in the Pakistani-Afghan border
regions.
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MASOOD MAINTAINS HIGH LEVELS OF COMBAT
COMMENT: One of Masood's primary goals is to increase
dramatically the level of "day-to-day" combat in the
north. To gain time for his program, Masood has
instructed his men in Parwan and Kapisa Provinces to
maintain military pressure on regime forces while
seeking to secure the cooperation of rival insurgent
groups. Although Masood also wants to increase the
number of high visibility attacks on regime garrisons
in the northern regions--such as at Farkhar and
Nahrin--he probably will continue to rely
primarily on
guerrilla-style operations and tactics.
LIMITED RESISTANCE SUCCESS AT OIC SUMMIT
The Afghan resistance delegation to the OIC summit in
Kuwait last month apparently is unhappy with the way
the Kuwaitis controlled its movements and its failure
to attract media coverage. Pakistani officials claim
the Kuwaitis "blacked out" media coverage of the
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resistance to avoid offending the Soviets. The
insurgent group met with OIC Secretary General Pirzada,
and Sayyaf, head of Ittihad--i-Islami Barai Azadi
Afghanistan, delivered a well-received, 45-minute
speech in fluent Arabic. Sayyaf urged the Islamic
countries to accept resistance offices, warned them not
to be deceived by the recent Soviet-Kabul peace
proposals, and recommended that ance be given
Afghanistan's seat in the OIC.
COMMENT: The resistance leaders?especially Sayyaf and
Gulbuddin--performed credibly at the summit, avoiding
public displays of disunity that have occasionally
embarrassed them in the past. Aside from making some
useful contacts, however, the insurgents' overall
impact was limited by the Kuwaiti decision to deny them
media coverage. Even the summit's decision to call on
the Soviets by name to withdraw from Afghanistan owes
less to resistance efforts than to Pakistan's desire to
avoid offending Moscow by outright condemnation of the
war in the OIC resolution.
IMPLICATIONS OF A DRY WINTER
According to the US Embassy in Kabul, snowfall has been
below normal in Afghanistan this winter, contributing
to electricity shortages in Kabul. The regime has been
forced to implement energy conservation measures, such
as limiting hours of service. The light winter
snowfall also may affect this year's harvest. A source
of the US Embassy claims that even if late-winter snows
are heavier than normal, they will be less beneficial
than early snowfall because they melt faster and
usually dissipate in fast runoff rather than seep into
the soil and replenish aquifers.
COMMENT: Low precipitation levels last winter
contributed to shortages and rising prices for some
basic foodstuffs. Inadequate precipitation probably is
also having a negative impact on Kabul's water supply,
already overtaxPri by thP 1 rge influx of refugees in
recent years.
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INDIAN MEDICAL SUPPORT FOR THE AFGHAN ARMY
In January 1987 Afghan Army casualties were receiving
medical treatment at an Indian military hospital and an
unknown number of Indian medical personnel were
deployed with Afghan Army field units,
that at least 100 Indian medical personnel--primarily
civilians--were in Kabul under a one-year contract to
provide support for the Afghan Army.
COMMENT: Indian officials have publicly denied that
India has aided or trained Afghan Army personnel.
Although we cannot confirm a current assistance effort,
that New
Delhi has provided some limited specialized military
training for Afghan soldiers under an agreement made
prior to the Soviet invasion in 1979.
IN BRIEF
Afghan Foreign Minister Abdol Wakil paid an
official visit to India between 7 and 11
February. The visit was the first by an
Afghan Foreign Minister since the Soviet
invasion in 1979. Wakil described his talks
in New Delhi, according to the US Embassy, as
"urgent" and pertaining to the next session
of Geneva peace talks.
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the
Afghan Army has deployed one battery of four
multiple rocket launchers to each of three
infantry divisions in eastern Afghanistan.
This is the first time that multiple rocket
launchers have been issued to Afghan
divisions; they usually are deployed at the
corps- or army-level. The Soviets have
delivered 47 BM-14s since early January--
enough to provide all remaining Afghan
infantry divisions with a battery.
Two leaders of Kabul's national
reconciliation campaign--Haji Abol Ahad
Arzbegi of Konduz Province and Inayatullah of
Nangarhar Province--were assassinated by
insurgents in early February. The resistance
also captured a 14-member reconciliation
delegation in Parvan Province, according to
press accounts. Kabul's inability to protect
its representatives almost certainly will
further limit the regime's ability to recruit
non-party figures for the faltering
reconciliation effort.
The US Mission in Geneva reports that the
International Committee of the Red Cross
(ICRC) plans to send a five-member team to
Kabul by 15 February as part of a recently
negotiated agreement with the Afghan regime
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to reestablish an office there. The
delegation has been guaranteed access to
regime-held prisoners and will begin its
monitoring activities with a visit to Pol-e
Charki prison outside Kabul. The ICRC also
intends to staff orthopedic medical teams in
Herat and Qandahar with Western European
medical personnel.
The Soviets are continuing to upgrade their
logistics infrastructure in Afghanistan.
They increased the storage capacity of a
petroleum, oil, and lubricant (POL) facility
at Pol-e Khomri, the largest in Afghanistan,
by 40 percent--7,000 metric tons--in 1986,
Nine new
horizontal tanks, which will be buried,
provide the additional capacity.
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